Education,Innovation and Long‐Run Growth

We extend a second‐generation Schumpeterian growth model to incorporate human capital accumulation to clarify the general equilibrium effects of subsidy policies on human capital accumulation and R&D activities in a unified framework. Despite the conventional argument that subsidies always stimulate these growth‐promoting activities, we find that subsidies asymmetrically affect human capital accumulation and R&D activities. Our theoretical results suggest that research using standard models of human capital might find false negative relationships between education subsidies and economic growth.     

Long‐Run Growth Differences and the Neoclassical Growth Model

This paper shows that allowing factor income share differences across countries in a modified Solow model can imply differences in output growth rates across countries. Using cross‐sectional data for 52 countries, an empirical illustration shows that the parameters of the modified model are intuitively plausible, jointly significant, and possess modest explanatory power (R² around 0.25). The paper emphasizes the methodological importance of simplifying assumptions on applied theory.     

Population Growth and Natural‐Resource Scarcity: Long‐Run Development under Seemingly Unfavorable Conditions

In this paper, I consider an economy that is constrained by the use of natural resources and driven by knowledge accumulation. Resources are essential inputs in all sectors. I show that population growth and poor input substitution are not detrimental but, on the contrary, are even necessary to obtain a sustainable consumption level. I find a general rule to define the conditions for a constant innovation rate. The rule does not apply to capital but to labor growth, which is the crucial input in research. Furthermore, the rule relates to the sectoral structure of the economy, and to demographic transition. The results continue to hold with a backstop technology, and are extended for the case of minimum resource constraints.     

The Long‐Run History of Income Inequality in Denmark

We use historical publications and micro data from tax returns to construct internationally comparable estimates of the development in income inequality in Denmark over the last 140 years. The study shows that income inequality and top income shares have declined during several distinct phases in between periods of stability. Furthermore, the quality of the Danish data allows us to analyse not only the development in top income shares but also broader inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient. These analyses show that top income shares are a good proxy for the underlying development in inequality.     

Urbanization,informal sector,and development

Urbanization is a universal phenomenon in the postwar world, but its qualitative nature is varied across countries. Some nations have experienced urbanization that accompanied skill upgrading, industrialization, and the expansion of the urban formal (modern) sector, but others urbanized without such modernization and underwent the expansion of the urban informal (traditional) sector simultaneously. The question that naturally arises is what are the underlying causes for the differences. The purpose of the paper is to tackle this question analytically based on a dynamic model of urbanization and development.     

The Long‐Term Impacts of the 1998 Nagano Winter Olympic Games on Economic and Labor Market Outcomes

This paper aims to assess the long‐term effects of the 1998 Nagano Winter Olympic Games on various economic and labor market outcomes in Nagano Prefecture. One‐shot and large‐size events, such as the Olympic Games, are expected to boost the local economy and create jobs, thus leading to lower unemployment. In addition, the tightening of the local labor market eventually raises wages. Using the synthetic control methodology, we build counterfactual dynamics of various economic and labor market outcomes for Nagano Prefecture, and then compare these outcomes with the actual data for these variables. This allows us to determine how the local economic and labor market outcomes in Nagano Prefecture would have been different had the 1998 Olympic Games not been held there.     

CLUSTER‐BASED INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT: A VIEW FROM EAST ASIA*

In this paper I attempt to formulate an endogenous model of cluster‐based industrial development, based on case studies in Japan, Taiwan, and China, where the initiation phase is followed by the quantity expansion phase through imitation and subsequently by the quality improvement phase through innovation. I argue that such a process of industrial development is supported by the development of market transactions among assemblers, parts‐suppliers, and merchants, and the stimulation of innovation made possible by the benefits of industrial clusters arising from the geographical concentration of a large number of enterprises and a variety of human resources in a small geographical area.     

Long‐Run Impact of Biofuels on Food Prices

About 40 percent of US corn is now used to produce biofuels, which are used as substitutes for gasoline in transportation. In this paper, we use a Ricardian model with differential land quality to show that world food prices could rise by about 32 percent by 2022. About half of this increase is from the biofuel mandate and the rest is a result of demand‐side effects in the form of population growth and income‐induced changes in dietary preferences, from cereals to meat and dairy products. However, aggregate world carbon emissions would increase, because of significant land conversion to farming and leakage from lower oil prices.     

Structural Change,Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia

Strong growth, intensive structural change, and expanding informality have characterized many developing and emerging economies in recent decades. Yet most empirical investigations into the relationship between structural change and productivity growth overlook informality. This paper includes the informal sector in an analysis of the effects of structural changes in the Russian economy on aggregate labor productivity growth. Using a newly developed dataset for 34 industries covering the period 1995–2012 and applying three alternative approaches, aggregate labor productivity growth is decomposed into intra-industry and inter-industry contributions. All three approaches show that the overall contribution of structural change is growth enhancing, significant, and decreasing over time. Labor reallocation from the formal sector to the informal sector tends to reduce growth through the extension of informal activities with low productivity levels. Sectoral labor reallocation effects are found to be highly sensitive to the methods applied.     

Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long‐Run: Lessons from Germany

We construct long‐run sustainability indicators based on changes in Comprehensive Wealth – which we refer to as Genuine Savings (GS) – for Germany over the period 1850–2000. We find that German sustainability indicators are positive for the most part, although they are negative during and after the two World Wars and also the Great Depression. We also test the relationship between these wealth changes and a number of measures of well‐being over the long‐run: changes in consumption as well as changes in average height and infant mortality rates. We find a positive relationship between GS and our well‐being indicators over different time horizons, however, the relationship breaks down during WWII. We also test if the GS/Comprehensive Wealth framework is able to cope with massive disinvestment at the end of the Second World War due to war‐related destructions and dismantlement. We find that negative rates of GS were by and large avoided due to the accumulation of technology and growth‐friendly institutions. We demonstrate the importance of broader measures of capital, including measures of technological progress, and its role in the process of economic development; and the limits of conventional measures of investment to understand why future German consumption did not collapse.     

Trade and Investment Linkages and Stock Market Long‐Run Relationship

This paper aims to examine whether the intensity of trade and investment linkages among the countries matter for their stock market long‐run relationship. To achieve this, we classify Australia's bilateral trade and investment partners into major, medium and minor. Empirical findings of an asymmetric generalised dynamic conditional correlation generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model show that correlations are time varying and increased significantly during the global financial crisis (GFC). Results of multivariate cointegration test confirm the long‐run equilibrium relationship between the stock markets of Australia and its major partners in the pre‐GFC and during GFC. Based on the full‐sample results, it indicates that the GFC has segmented the stock markets from the long‐run equilibrium relationship. Granger non‐causality test results on full sample show that Australian stock market causes only the New Zealand market while the USA, the UK, Germany, Canada, Switzerland and Italy drives the Australian market. Our results therefore suggest that the intensity of bilateral trade and investment linkages among the countries matter for their stock markets' long‐term relationship.     

Cross‐Subsidies,and the Elasticity of Informality to Social Expenditures: The Case of Mexico's Seguro Popular

How is the size of the informal sector affected when the distribution of social expenditures across formal and informal workers changes? How is it affected when the tax rate changes along with the generosity of these transfers? In our search model, taxes are levied on formal‐sector workers as a proportion of their wage. Transfers, in contrast, are lump‐sum and are received by both formal and informal workers. This implies that high‐wage formal workers subsidize low‐wage formal workers as well as informal workers. We calibrate the model to Mexico and perform counterfactuals. We find that the size of the informal sector is quite inelastic to changes in taxes and transfers. This is due to the presence of search frictions and to the cross‐subsidy in our model: for low‐wage formal jobs, a tax increase is roughly offset by an increase in benefits, leaving the unemployed approximately indifferent. Our results are consistent with the empirical evidence on the recent introduction of the “Seguro Popular” healthcare program.     

Informality,Micro and Small Enterprises,and the 2016 Demonetisation Policy in India

Using a panel dataset collected in 2014–2017, we examine small and micro entrepreneurs in Delhi, India, distinguishing registered (more formal) and unregistered (more informal) enterprises. The dataset contains not only information on the characteristics of entrepreneurs and firms, but also General Social Survey trust information. Quantitative analysis comparing the two types of entrepreneurs reveals that their social backgrounds and trust were different, and that the difference is correlated with firm performance. In the micro and small enterprise sector in Delhi, registered and unregistered firms coexist with different kinds of superiority, but the business transactions of both types of firms remain highly cash‐dependent even after the 2016 Demonetisation shock.     

Inequality and growth: What comes from the different inequality measures?

The objective of the paper is to verify if income inequality impedes the growth rates in OECD countries in the period of 1990–2014 and to reveal whether the choice of the income inequality measure determines the sign and the strength of the estimated relationship. We use system GMM to estimate parameters of a dynamic panel growth model. The research indicates that income inequality negatively affects economic growth. We also find evidence that various measures of inequality bring the different scale of consequences for economic growth, with measures that give more weight to the middle part of the distribution being the weakest predictor of GDP growth. Simultaneously, we present the test of weak instruments, which helps to explain these differences.     

International Bank Portfolios: Short‐ and Long‐Run Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions

International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, banks' response to international macroeconomic conditions remains largely unexplored. We use a novel dataset on banks' international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long‐run determinants of banks' international portfolios? Second, how do banks' international portfolios adjust to short‐run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration? We find that, in the long‐run, market size has a positive impact on foreign assets and liabilities. An increase in the interest differential between the home and the foreign economy lowers foreign assets and increases foreign liabilities. Foreign trade has a positive impact on international bank portfolios, which is independent from the effect of other macroeconomic variables. Short‐run dynamics show heterogeneity across countries, but these dynamics can partly be explained with gravity‐type variables.     

Start up costs, limited enforcement, and the hidden economy

This paper examines how much of the difference in the size of the informal sector and in per capita income across countries can be accounted by regulation costs and enforcement of financial contracts. It constructs and solves numerically a general equilibrium model with credit constrained heterogenous agents, occupational choices over formal and informal businesses, financial frictions and a government sector which imposes taxes and regulations on formal firms. The benefit from formalization is better access to outside finance. The quantitative exercises suggest that: (i) regulation costs and not the level of enforcement account for differences in the size of the informal sector between United States and Mediterranean Europe; (ii) for a developing country like Peru, however, contract enforcement and regulation costs are equally important in accounting for the size of the informal sector; and (iii) regulation costs and contract enforcement do not account for most of the income differences observed among countries.     

Seasonal Cointegration and Long‐Run Neutrality of Money in the USA

Using the notion of seasonal cointegration and a monetarist model, this paper re‐examines the long‐run monetary neutrality hypothesis, based on the seasonally unadjusted quarterly data of the US over the period 1959Q1–2004Q4. The results indicate that money is cointegrated with price at all possible frequencies while real output is cointegrated with price only at an annual frequency. The cointegration between money and price at the zero frequency, and non‐cointegration between real output and money at all possible frequencies, suggests that money affects nominal but not real variables in the long run.