中国货币供应量的影响因素实证分析

本文通过对货币供应方程进行分析,采用2002-2011年间月度数据,用决定货币乘数和基础货币的各因素对货币供应量进行回归分析,得到货币供应量的长期均衡方程,并据此提出政策建议。     

基础货币供应量与房地产价格关系的实证研究

从宏观经济学理论和我国现实来看,房价和我国的基础货币供应量之间是存在紧密关系的。本文采用2003年至2010年的基础货币供应量和房价月度数据,运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验进行实证分析,结果表明:基础货币的增加会进一步推高房地产价格,而房地产价格的增加并不会引起基础货币量供给的增加。针对基础货币量的泛滥导致的房价上涨,在短期而言,必须采取措施防止基础货币的过快增长,而在长期,需要调整基础货币发行体制,转变经济增长方式减少外汇占款,防止由于基础货币量大幅增长对房地产市场价格的冲击。     

货币供应量与通货膨胀的关系分析

通货膨胀是世界范围内普遍存在的问题。国家不同,经济体制不同,货币的调控和政策也不同,因此分地区来研究货币供应量与通货膨胀之间的相关性具有重要意义。本文分别选取中国、美国以及欧盟在2008年经济危机发生前后的2005年1月至2015年12月的环比月度数据,具体包括M2与CPI共6组月度数据,每组数据有131个月度值。通过VAR、ADF单位根检验和格兰杰因果检验计量方法分别分析3个地区货币供应量和通货膨胀的关系,得出在中国、美国和欧盟3个地区货币供应量都不是通货膨胀的原因。最后为我国如何调节通货膨胀提出针对性建议。     

我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量关系的实证研究

本文根据1978～2009年我国历年银行信贷量、居民消费价格指数和货币供应量的有关数据,运用协整理论,从短期和长期两方面对改革开放以来我国信贷规模、价格与货币供应量之间的动态关系进行实证研究,结果表明,三者之间存在长期均衡关系。从总体上说,货币供应量、银行信贷的变化对物价均有明显的正效应,且货币供应量的变化较银行信贷对物价有更大的影响。从短期看,银行信贷的变化较之货币供应的变化对物价又有更快的更为明显的效果,具有更好的时效性。因此,在制定政策稳定物价、抑制和缓解通货膨胀时,应从总体上着眼于货币供应量的调控,同时考虑到时效性,也要关注银行信贷的短期影响,将二者有机结合起来以达到更好的宏观调控效果。     

我国贫富差距与货币供应量的实证研究

改革开放以来,我国的贫富差距问题越来越严重.基尼系数更是超过了0.4这一国际红线.从微观经济学角度看,贫富差距给人类社会带来了显著的负面效应;从社会学角度看,贫富差距带来了一定的社会不满情绪,降低了社会整体幸福水平.本文分析了贫富差距与货币供应量之间的关系,着重分析了基尼系数和M2之间的相互影响,并从金融学的角度分析了贫富分化的原因,给出了政策性建议.     

我国房地产价格与货币供应量的实证分析

房地产行业作为一个资金密集型行业,与货币的供应量有着密切的联系.本文选取1998年1月至2008年10月的全国房地产均价序列和货币供应量序列,通过进行数据的平稳性分析,协整检验,建立VAR模型,进行格兰杰因果分析,运用脉冲响应函数方法研究货币供应量冲击对中国房地产价格的动态影响.     

我国房地产价格与货币供应量的实证分析

房地产行业作为一个资金密集型行业,与货币的供应量有着密切的联系。本文选取1998年1月至2008年10月的全国房地产均价序列和货币供应量序列,通过进行数据的平稳性分析,协整检验,建立VAR模型,进行格兰杰因果分析,运用脉冲响应函数方法研究货币供应量冲击对中国房地产价格的动态影响。     

电子货币供给机制分析

电子货币的发行与传统的货币供给机制有很大差别,在网络经济下电子货币的供给有两种形式:一是电子货币仅作为支付手段时的供给机制,二是电子货币作为银行一般性负债时的供给机制.网络经济下电子货币的供给完全是一种竞争性的市场行为,随着电子货币的发展,必将对传统的由中央银行垄断货币供给的机制提出挑战.     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

Impact of Monetary Supply on Chinese Nonferrous Metal Price Movement*

Employing both classical vector autoregressive methodology and regression models utilizing shock factors constructed with the Hodrick–Prescott filtering method, this paper empirically studies the influence of monetary factors on the price of nonferrous metals and their expectation formation in the Chinese market. Monetary factors are found to significantly positively influence Chinese nonferrous metal prices, and further empirical research reveals that a structural change occurred near August 2006. There is an expectation formation mechanism of lagged futures prices on spot metal prices, and the risk originating primarily from international market is transmitted to Chinese markets.     

Reserve Accumulation and Money Supply in China: A Time-Varying Analysis

This study investigates the causal relationship between reserve accumulation and money supply in China over the period of 1999 M1–2015 M6. First, we use a Granger causality test and find that there is a unidirectional relationship from money supply growth to reserve accumulation growth; however, taking structural changes into account, we assess stability of parameters of the estimated vector autoregressive models. We find both the short-run and long-run relationships between money supply growth and reserve accumulation growth estimated using full-sample data are unstable over the sample period. This suggests that full-sample causality tests cannot be relied upon. We turn to propose a time-varying (bootstrap) rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. We find that two variables have causal relationships in some sub-periods. We argue that reserve accumulation growth has put pressure on money supply growth. However, in general, sterilization is effective, but not in few months 2006–2007. And money supply has a positive reserve accumulation from the second half of 2001–2003 because RMB was undervalued under the fixed exchange rate regime. We argue that the improvements of monetary policy and the exchange rate regime are crucial to break the relationship between reserve accumulation growth and the money supply growth.     

货币供应、通胀预期管理与物价调控手段

基于VAR模型的物价波动成因的实证分析显示,1992年以来货币因素对CPI的贡献率为70.03%,货币始终是影响我国物价的主要因素;但2003年以来,影响物价的因素变得更为复杂,物价上涨主要由劳动力成本、通胀预期和货币因素共同拉动,其对CPI的贡献率分别为39.97%、26.73%和25.19%,输入性通胀因素对CPI的贡献率为8.11%。现阶段稳定物价水平不仅要注重控制货币供应,更应注重劳动生产率的提高和通胀预期的管理。     

我国外汇占款影响货币供给的实证研究

近年我国外汇储备的持续增长,造成外汇占款大幅增长,最后引致货币供给增加。本文将对我国外汇占款对货币供给的影响作用进行实证分析,结果表明我国外汇占款和货币供给量M2之间存在稳定的均衡关系,我国外汇占款的巨剧增长,容易导致货币市场失衡。     

内蒙古羊肉供求实证分析

通过供求理论结合产业特征分析,确定影响羊肉供求的主要因素,构建供求模型,研究发现：供给主要决定于上期价格和出栏率,需求主要决定于本期价格、居民收入和猪肉价格;对于价格而言,供给缺乏弹性,而需求富有弹性;羊肉需求收入弹性大于1,羊肉属于肉类消费中的高档品。羊肉特别是活羊的最低保护价,科技示范推广,以及品牌建设,是牧区实现草原生态保护前提下增加牧民收入的关键因素。     

流动性过剩压力下农村地区货币供给严重滞后的实证分析——基于河北省的农村金融供求缺口分析

文章从农村地区货币供求的缺口测算入手，对河北省农村地区货币供给的严重滞后状况进行了实证分析，并指出了导致河北省农村地区货币供给短缺的深层次原因。并就如何解决农村地区货币供求矛盾提出了系统安排。     

Housing Supply,Demand and Price: Construction Cost,Rental Price and House Price Indices

Housing prices are subject to the impacts of supply as well as demand. While supply is affected by construction costs, demand is determined by the renting/buying considerations of the public. As a result, the construction cost index (CCI) on the supply side and the rental price index (RPI) on the demand side should be closely related to the house price index (HPI). The present study adopts three price indices of the Taiwan housing market, the CCI, the RPI and the HPI, and examines long‐term and short‐term correlations among the three indices. Empirical results indicate that the relationships among three indices are nonlinear. More interestingly, this article finds that the HPI stimulates changes in the CCI and the RPI, although construction costs and rent are viewed as fundamentals in the existing literature. This phenomenon is rather obvious when deviations of the latter two indices from the HPI are greater. The corrective behavior of the HPI is more notable under these circumstances.     

能源价格上涨对我国物价的影响研究

能源价格的变动对国民经济发展以及人民生活都有很大的影响。本文以我国2007年42部门投入产出表为数据基础,采用投入产出价格影响模型,分别分析当油价上涨20%、电价上涨10%时对41个部门产品价格的影响程度,并在此基础上分析对物价总水平、生产者物价指数水平及居民消费品价格水平变动的影响。