柳青 正在经历成长痛

柳传志女儿的标签正在被淡忘,如今她是滴滴出行总裁——柳青。站在北京工体滴滴年会的舞台上,柳青开场就分享了这样一组数据：2017年,中国民航客运总量约5亿人次,中国铁路约30亿人次,而滴滴在2017年运送的乘客超过100亿人次,是中国民航的20倍,是中国铁路系统的3倍。滴滴这家刚满五岁的公司,员工数量达到8000人。估值已经逼近600亿美金。     

基于物业平台、建设共享经济、开创行业发展新时代

<正>共享经济商业模式的兴起随着互联网技术的发展和应用,我们迎来了共享经济时代。像我们熟悉的优步打车就是把司机和车辆的闲散时间利用起来共享给乘客,乘客不用买车,就可以享受包括昂贵私家车在内的出行服务。共享经济的典型应用还有美国的airbnb空中食宿(airbedandbreakfast),它是把私人住房、客厅、沙发共享给旅行者,并提供早餐服务,现在已经发展到全球157个国家超过8000个城市,成为传统酒店业的颠覆者。共享经济源于美国的Marcus Felson和Joe L.Spaeth于1978年提出的"协作消费"概念,2011年,《时代周     

“互联网+”时代的出租车补贴方案研究

随着“互联网+”时代的到来,打车软件服务平台在一定程度上解决了“打车难”的现象。本文建立数学模型,分析各种补贴方案对打车难易程度的影响。从乘客和出租车司机的角度考虑,分别建立了出租车顾客需求模型以及乘客打车难易度模型,并通过Matlab仿真计算出滴滴和优步补贴方案对乘客打车的难度系数。     

从“最美司机”到“最美质量”

继乘用车"DSG"故障事件后,有商用车"最美司机"殒命事件。此两件事令我们对中国成为"汽车大国"有点高兴不起来。被称为"最美司机"的吴斌,是杭州城际班车的司机,5月29日,为保护车上20多位乘客的生命,在高速行驶途中遭遇铁器猛烈撞击时临危不惧,坚持着将车安全开到路旁。其停稳、开门、嘱人拨打110等一系列动作的专业素养;其临危不惧、将乘客生命置于自己生命之上的职业道德,堪称完美。只可惜家中还有娇妻幼女,纵然救出一车人,他     

滴滴入局即时配送

最近,多个城市的滴滴代驾司机开始身兼双职,承接起一项全新的任务——跑腿服务,业界行话也称之为即时配送服务。随着3月16日滴滴跑腿在上海、深圳、重庆等21个城市正式上线,国内领先的网约车平台(或称出行平台)滴滴,宣告开始入局即配物流市场。因何入局?"滴滴跑腿致力于为社区居民提供便利的同时,也为滴滴司机师傅们提供更多获得收入的机会。"     

那些穿梭在武汉街头的司机

"每接送完一趟乘客,我都会给车里做一次消毒,回家之后先把衣服换掉,做好清洁之后再接触家人。每天早出晚归的,说家里人不担心是假的,孩子懂事了,也知道危险,但我在部队受的教育就是这样,不能退缩。"卡车司机刘建敏:第一次看到武汉的样子大年初一下午,在我们卡车协会的微信群里冒出了一条信息,河南禹州一家公司要发一批卫生陶瓷用品到武汉火神山医院。春节司机不好找,对方找到我们协会求助。卡车协会成立3年,成员都是跑大车的司机,我自己担任着协会鲁山分会会长,平日里也经常组织大家做些公益。     

浅析打车经济时代的兴起

自2014年春节滴滴和快的就开始了价格战,一时之间打车软件风靡全国,双方补贴金额达19亿元,直到3月双方渐渐降低价格补贴,打车软件价格战才慢慢退烧。然而5月底滴滴刚推出打车红包活动,乘客通过微信抢红包成功后即可抵扣车费,6月快的又推出用户在6月11日到17日之间每使用一次即可返还一张代金券,金额1-10元不等,打一次返一次。     

汽车文明尚遥远

前不久,朋友老王全家自驾游美国,用半个多月时间,行程6000多公里,游遍美国西部。按照美国的交规驾车,老王感觉道路畅通、心情畅快。回到国内却郁闷地发现,自己"不会"开车了:路况之复杂、交规之模糊、司机之争抢,竟比在语言陌生的域外还难以应对,让他这个老司机无所适从。比如,在几条车道间并线难上加难:不打并线灯还好,一打灯,后面的车会加速把你挤出去,似乎我们的几条车道不是依功能划分,而是用来窜来窜去     

滴滴专车或颠覆出租车业垄断模式?

今年元旦前后,全国一些省会城市接连发生出租车司机罢运事件,以拒缴"份子钱"作要挟,要求政府取缔专车、黑车,矛头直指"滴滴"、"快的"等打车软件推出的专车服务。特别是滴滴专车,由于市场份额较大,成为"出头鸟",颇受诟病。(一)填补市场空隙由滴滴专车掀起的一股汹涌暗流正在冲击着出租车行业中最为敏感的神经地带——专车出租,这不仅牵扯到数百亿市场,也牵扯到整个行业未来的沉浮。正像一位租车类公司的老总所说的,"只要政策松     

地铁电客车司机心理分析及应对措施

西安地铁二号线全长26.3公里,共21个车站,全部采取地下行车方式。作为运营公司关键岗位的电客车司机,是运营安全的第一道屏障,是为乘客提供一流服务的保障,同时司机手上掌握着几千万的资产及千百万乘客的生命,稍有疏忽,便会造成无法挽回的损失。但司机的工作环境、工作压力、社会环境、家庭环境、生理因素都会给司机带来这样那样的心理问题,直接影响着安全运营。因     

China's soft landing: Too good to be true?

Chinese inflation reached a peak of almost 30% in late 1994 but has since fallen back to below 10%. Growth has eased in response to weakening demand but the slowdown has been very modest, with growth of around 10% recorded to last year. In this article, Hong Bai and Andrew Sentance critically examine this apparent "soft landing" and suggest that the reduction in inflation may be more apparent than real.     

Tighter labour markets to finally lift global wages

• Wage growth has been relatively slow since 2007 in advanced economies, but an upturn may be in sight. Slow productivity growth remains an issue but tighter labour markets make a positive response by wages to rising inflation more likely and there are signs that compositional and crisis‐related effects that dragged wage growth down are fading – though Japan may be an exception.
• Overall, our forecasts are for a moderate improvement in wage growth in the major economies in 2017–18, with the pace of growth rising by 0.5–1% per year relative to its 2016 level by 2018 – enough to keep consumer spending reasonably solid.
• Few countries have maintained their pre‐crisis pace of wage growth since 2007. In part this reflects a mixture of low inflation and weak productivity growth, but other factors have also been in play: in the US and Japan wage growth has run as much as 0.5–1% per year lower than conventional models would suggest.
• The link with productivity seems to have weakened since 2007 and Phillips curves – which relate wages to unemployment – have become flatter. A notable exception is Germany, where the labour market has behaved in a much more ‘normal’ fashion over recent years with wage growth responding to diminishing slack.
• ‘Compositional’ factors related to shifts in the structure of the workforce may have had an important influence in holding down wage growth, cutting it by as much as 2% per year in the US and 1% per year in the UK. There are some signs that the impact of these effects in the UK and US are fading, but not in Japan.
• The forecast rise in inflation over the next year as energy price base effects turn positive is a potential risk to real wages. But the decline in measures of labour market slack in the US, UK and Germany suggests wages are more likely to move up with inflation than was the case in 2010–11 when oil prices spiked and real wages fell.

     

World Economic Prospects

Overview: US acceleration brings a positive start to 2014

• A series of positive data releases in the US has led us to revise upwards our growth forecasts for 2014. We now expect US GDP to rise by over 3% this year, compared to 2.7% forecast a month ago.
• A key factor changing the US outlook is a more confident consumer. In the three months to November, real consumption rose at an annualised pace of 5%, the strongest in four years. This has been partly financed by a reduced saving rate – but the saving rate has been much lower in the recent past and steady employment gains should support both income and consumer sentiment in the year ahead.
• Also supporting growth this year in the US and the broader global economy will be wealth gains. In recent years, global stock prices at the end of a given year have been a reasonable predictor of economic growth in the following year, and global equities were up over 20% on the year at the end of 2013.
• Nevertheless, the global growth outlook remains patchy. An optimistic picture in the US, UK and Japan contrasts with a rather mixed picture the Eurozone – where some economies are still contracting and where there is a risk of deflation.
• The picture is also subdued in the key emergers. In contrast to the developed economies, emerging market stocks are down 10% on the year as higher US yields draw capital away. Weak currencies, inflation and high interest rates are weighing on growth in markets such as India, Brazil and Turkey.
• These factors are likely to wane only slowly as the year proceeds and could even worsen if tapering in the US is faster than expected. A stronger US economy may not fully offset this – the US's strong competitive position could direct more of rising US demand to US products than in previous upturns.
• As a result, we expect emerging growth to firm only modestly this year, to 4.5% from 4.1% in 2013 – well below pre‐crisis levels of around 7%. Global growth too will remain below par at 2.9%, from 2.2% in 2013, but improving to over 3% next year.

     

Forecast Summary

The recovery that we forecast in February remains intact, though its composition is shifting between external and domestic demand. As we reported in International Economic Outlook earlier this month, the recession in Europe is intensifying so that, even with the devaluation-induced improvement in competitiveness, exports are being held back The weaker world outlook is the main factor behind a lower growth forecast next year. For 1993, however, we are continuing to forecast growth of 11/2 per cent, principally on the basis of more buoyant consumer spending. But the boost from consumption, while welcome in the first stage of recovery, is short-lived since the higher taxes already announced for next year hold back the growth of disposable incomes. Again this is desirable for the share of consumption, private and public, in GDP has been rising steadily and needs to be reversed in order to devote resources to reducing the two deficits: the PSBR and the trade gap. Over the forecast as a whole it is exports and investment which drive demand, not consumption. Underlying inflation has fallen below 3 per cent for the first time in twenty years, but it is now at its cyclical low point. We expect some increase in inflation from now on, though the Government's 1–4 per cent target is not likely to be breached this year. Next year and beyond, however, without more action on the budget deficit or a sharper increase in interest rates than we are assuming, inflation is forecast to settle in the 4–5 per cent range. Unemployment has fallen in recent months but the underlying trend remains upwards. We expect the three million level to be reached in the second half of the year.     

网约车双边用户信任机制的构建研究

目前我国网约车行业呈迅速上升之势,但在发展过程中出现了很多亟待解决的问题。本文首先介绍了我国网约车行业的背景及其发展现状,然后概述了我国网约车行业的发展历程,接着应用案例分析法对滴滴出行案例的几个社会事件进行了分析,阐述了当前网约车行业所面临的问题,最后分别从监管、技术、价格三方面提出建立用户与平台之间基于制度、认知、计算三种信任的相关建议。     

Forecast Summary

Although hard evidence of recovery is still elusive, our forecast indicates that the trough of the recession occurred in the second quarter and that output fell 4 per cent peak-to-trough. We estimate that GDP rose 112 per cent in the third quarter - though only because of a rebound in North Sea oil production - and that for 1991 CIS a whole it will be 2 per cent down on 1990 levels. Next year GDP is forecast to rise 2 per cent but it is not until 1993 that the 1990 output peak is passed. Unemployment therefore still has a considerable way to rise - to a peak of 2.8 million in 1993. In the first year of full EMS membership, the economy has made an accelerated transition to European levels of inflation. Against a background of modest growth, it should be possible to consolidate this progress and we expect retail price inflation to average little more than 3 per cent over the next four years. Similar rapid progress has been achieved on the balance of payments where there is a trade surplus on manufactured goods for the first time since 1982. Here, however, we are less confident that the reduction in the trade gap can be sustained. In the recovery phase we expect imports to rise more rapidly than exports with the result that the current account deficit rises from £6bn this year to £8bn in 1992 and £10bn-£12bn in 1993-5.     

The Year of Workers’ Mobility

The year 2006 is the European Year of Workers’ Mobility. This article seeks to assess how effective such a designation might be in the context of the problems that currently confront the EU. While it finds that the underlying potential is significant, the reality is that the year has been framed more with political than with social and economic goals to the fore and the result is a disappointment.     

Is the Economy Overheating?

In the last year total output has risen 4 per cent and manufacturing is up 6 per cent. Unemployment has fallen by 400,000. The current account, which was in surplus in the first half of the year, has moved back into deficit. Does this mean that the economy is “over- heating”? In the context of our forecast we examine this issue; we consider how rapidly supply can increase and how fast demand is increasing. We conclude that the growth of output in the last year was initially driven by supply and that, more recently, domestic demand has been growing very rapidly. The emergence of a current account deficit is evidence of excess domestic demand but from now on we expect demand to grow less rapidly. With non-oil supply expanding at a rate in excess of 3 per cent, we forecast steady output growth and little change in either inflation or the current account. In our judgement, the economy, though hot, is not overheating.     

Are emergers a threat to the global recovery?

Last year the emergers led the global recovery with the advanced economies lagging, but in recent months there has been a range of positive indicators across the advanced economies, most notably the PMI surveys, with the US non‐manufacturing index reaching an eight‐year high in August and the UK composite index recording its highest ever reading in the same month. By contrast, the indicators from emerging economies have been more mixed and while some of the Chinese data have been better in recent months, the PMI surveys point to stagnation or contraction across a number of other emergers. While emerging economies will continue to make a large contribution to world growth, the global upturn is now being driven by strengthening domestic demand in the advanced economies.…     

WORLD OUTLOOK

Over the last 12 months industrial production in the OECD area has risen by 8–9 per cent, only slightly less rapidly than in the first year of recovery from the OPEC 1 oil crisis. Much of the growth in output stems from a very rapid expansion in North America although, in the second half of 1983, output in Europe and Japan began to accelerate. We expect the recovery to be maintained during 1984 with some convergence of growth rates. For the year as a whole we are now forecasting 61/2 per cent growth of industrial production, 33/4 per cent for total GNP. By the end of 1983 the long-standing reduction in inflation had run its course and OECD consumer prices were about 5 per cent higher than a year earlier. Within the area some countries, such as France and Italy, were still reducing inflation, but this was offset by the US where inflation has been rising slowly since the summer. We expect these trends to continue in 1984, i.e. stable inflation in the OECD but accelerating prices in the US, producing in each case about 5 per cent inflation. In 1985 we are now forecasting a slowdown in the world economy. This is expected to be centred on the United States, where the problem of the Federal Budget remains to be tackled. By the time of the Presidential election the US economy will have registered two years of relatively rapid growth. This is likely to be producing upward pressure on prices and interest rates and, as a result, a pause in 1985 in the growth of output. In Europe and Japan, where output has grown more slowly, we expect the recovery to be sustained in the medium term.