Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?

This study investigates the interconnection of policy uncertainties between the world’s two largest countries, the US and China, and sheds light on whether and how the US–China trade war affects each party. Given the deep-seated economic integration and trade linkage between the two countries, these characterizations are essential for understanding how policy shocks propagate spatially. Using fiscal, monetary, and trade policy data from January 2000 to December 2019, I provide ample evidence of bilateral, multilateral, and system-wide measures of policy uncertainty connectedness. Monetary policy is most likely to be the leader of policy uncertainty in China, while fiscal policy is more likely to be the leader in the US. The cross-category connectedness is not constant over time. Overall, the direction of spillover is from the US to China, although this changes in different periods owing to different environments. These findings are useful for policymakers to monitor the effectiveness of policies and to help investors avoid economic policy uncertainty shocks induced by return fluctuations.     

美国养老金的税收政策及启示

美国养老金成功发展的重要基础之一就是政府税收政策的支撑,而目前制约我国养老金发展的重要原因恰恰是税收制度的不健全。因此,文章通过对美国养老金的税收政策的基本特点、经验进行归纳总结,探讨我国如何为养老金的发展提供更好的税收政策的保障。     

Competition principles and policy in the APEC: How to proceed and link with WTO

There is a growing consensus that competition‐oriented policy framework would be instrumental in achieving the Bogor goal of trade and investment liberalization by 2010/2020. As of now, only eight economies have the experience of operating competition policy for more than a decade. Many emerging economies of the APEC have only begun to introduce competition policy. The Auckland APEC Leaders Meeting of 1999 adopted the APEC competition principles. It is a significant step forward, but more hard work lies ahead: the issue of developing specific and concrete work program to implement the competition principles within the APEC and how to put competition policy in the much broader context of a multilateral trading system. The paper maps out a specific strategy to move the competition policy agenda forward at the APEC and how to link to the WTO and identifies the sources of such value‐added and makes a proposal in order to best utilize them.     

British government and popular understanding of inflation in the mid‐1970s

In Britain in the 1970s inflation rose to historically unprecedented peace‐time levels, and became the central issue of economic policy‐making. We know a great deal about the elite policy debates on the significance of this inflation, and the arguments about how to reduce it, but we know far less about how inflation was understood by the population at large, and how those understandings were shaped. This article explores the evidence on popular understanding, especially analysing the material gathered by the Counter‐Inflation Publicity Unit, created in the summer of 1975. Along with other evidence, this material is used to explore how far the Labour government's economic propaganda can be said to have influenced popular opinion on both the significance and causes of inflation. The evidence supports the argument that the belief that trade unions were the main culprit for inflation was reinforced and entrenched by this propaganda, with important unintended consequences for the arguments about policy that followed the ‘Winter of Discontent’ of 1978/9.     

Redressing gender inequality in employment: the national and sub-regional policy 'fit'

This article examines the 'fit' between policy development regarding gender inequality in employment at sub-regional and national (UK) level, in particular focusing on the experience of women. Drawing on research undertaken in Coventry and Warwickshire, the article explores the question of how policy development at sub-regional level fits with national policy, and whether the sub-region is an appropriate, or effective, level at which to develop policy on gender inequality in employment. It is argued that while there needs to be recognition of the limited ability of sub-regional policy to confront structural issues, policy development at this level does offer potential strengths in redressing both gender inequality in employment and the relative lack of a gender dimension in local economic development.     

论政策性银行与财政部门的配合

针对十五计划“完善和发挥政策性银行功能”的要求 ,本文认为 ,目前政策性银行功能尚未发挥出来 ,财政与政策性银行的配合不佳是最重要的制约因素。以国家开发银行为例 ,文章分析了我国财政与政策性银行配合中存在的问题 ,最后有针对性地提出了加强财政与政策性银行配合的政策建议 ,其核心建议是财政加大对政策性银行的支持 ,同时政府对财政和政策性银行加强宏观调控 ,使之形成合力 ,发挥各自效能     

金融海啸背景下我国宏观调控的政策选择

次贷危机引发的金融海啸正向全球蔓延,并已对中国的宏观调控造成不利影响,加剧了金融风险。由于各国经济发展及目标存在差异,可能导致次贷危机背景下宏观调控政策存在有效性冲突。因此,探求我国宏观调控的政策选择具有重大的现实意义。     

基于VAR模型的我国货币政策有效性实证分析

货币政策有效性包括工具的有效性、传导机制的效率以及能否达到预期目标,而评价货币政策是否有效的最终依据是货币政策的实施效果.文章构建了测度货币政策有效性的VAK模型,利用脉冲响应函数分析了相关变量对CPI影响的强弱程度及其对货币政策发生效力的滞后时间,认为我国的货币政策是基本有效的,货币供给量M0是近期货币政策中较合适的货币政策工具,并提出了将价格型工具和数量型工具混合使用以实现货币政策预期目标的建议.     

基于Markov区制转移模型的财政政策通胀效应检验

价格水平如何决定以及通货膨胀如何治理历来都是经济学家和政府决策部门关心的问题,新近提出的价格水平决定的财政理论强调财政政策变动对价格水平的影响。基于该理论,选取1998-2012年间国债发行和价格水平的季度数据,采取马尔科夫区制转移模型从一个侧面对我国财政政策的通货膨胀效应进行了实证检验,研究发现,积极财政政策对价格水平的影响并不一致,2008年第4季度之前的大部分时间里,积极财政政策所引致的通胀风险并不显著,但2008年之后,积极财政政策则具有显著通胀效应。因此,在治理通货膨胀的政策选择上,改善当前的财政状况,合理地运用财政政策可能是一个更好的选择。     

利率市场化体系下完善住房公积金利率政策建议

在介绍现行公积金利率政策的基础上,分析其存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议：完善公积金利率定价机制,完善公积金利率管理体系。     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

出口退税政策对我国外贸增长方式转变的影响效应及建议

本文分析了出口退税政策对我国外贸增长方式转变的影响效应，并在此基础上提出利用出口退税政策促进我国外贸增长方式根本转变的几点建议。     

出口退税政策与出口型外贸企业现金流运行均衡管理研究

对于出口退税研究以往较多关注出口退税政策对宏观经济调控作用,但其如何传导及影响微观出口型企业现金流,学者们对此领域的研究文献却不多见,文章分析与比较了危机前后的出口退税政策,并以此展开研究,分析调整后的出口退税政策如何综合作用于微观外贸出口型企业现金流运行。尝试性探索金融危机后基于我国出口退税政策特质出口型外贸企业现金流运行规律与特征,以期归纳与总结出出口退税政策如何传导并作用于出口型外贸企业现金流运行的一般特性,并针对性提出不同现金流管理措施与策略,以期为后危机时代外贸出口型企业实现现金流运行均衡管理,防范现金流运行断流风险提供些许洞见。     

Understanding the investment of renewable energy firms in the face of economic policy uncertainty – Micro-evidence from listed companies in China

With the development of renewable energy, the current support for China's renewable energy industry has gradually shifted from “helping its development and expansion” to “helping it resists systemic risks and strengthens market competition”. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study how the strategic investment of renewable energy companies is affected by economic policy uncertainty. This paper first robustly explores the non-linear relationship between strategic investment and economic policy uncertainty of Chinese renewable energy enterprises. Then from the three perspectives of the relationship between the government and renewable energy enterprises, the characteristics of renewable energy enterprises, the response of the product market and financial market to renewable energy, this paper innovatively explores how different dimensions will adjust the non-linear relationship between strategic investment of renewable energy enterprises and economic policy uncertainty. The analysis in this paper closely relies on the characteristics of the renewable energy industry at this stage, so our conclusion can provide a reference for the government to formulate the development plan of renewable energy enterprises scientifically and prudently.     

Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy

Between 2002 and 2006, the Federal Reserve set interest rates significantly below the rates suggested by well-known monetary policy rules. There is a growing body of research suggesting that this helped fuel an excess of liquidity in the U.S. that contributed to the 2008 worldwide financial crash. It is less well known that a number of other central banks also lowered interest rates during this period. An important question, then, is what role the Federal Reserve played in influencing other central banks to alter their own monetary policies, which could have magnified the Fed’s actions in creating global liquidity. This paper addresses the issue by showing how spillovers in central bank behavior occur in theoretical rational expectations models. It then establishes empirically how U.S. monetary policy actions affect the actions of other major central banks, particularly in terms of interest rates and currency interventions. The models and data suggest that the U.S. lowering its policy rate, either in general or in reference to a monetary policy rule, influences other central banks to lower their own policy rates and intervene in currency markets, even when controlling for worldwide macroeconomic trends. It thus appears that U.S. actions were a factor in the worldwide lowering of interest rates and the increase in currency reserves in the early 2000s that may have contributed to the subsequent global liquidity boom.     

Accession to the euro-area: a stylized analysis using a NK model

This paper analyses the accession to the euro-area by new members using a stylized new-Keynesian model. We analyze macroeconomic adjustment in the pre- and post-accession case and calculate welfare in both situations to obtain net benefit/loss from accession. It is shown how the effects of accession is related to the conduct of monetary policy and fiscal policy in the pre- and post-accession case. The simulation examples point at the potential costs that accession might entail due its consequences on monetary and fiscal policy design. These consequences from accession in terms of macroeconomic stabilization ability of monetary and fiscal policies have not always been fully acknowledged and may need more attention.     

我国上市公司治理与会计政策选择

会计政策选择受到公司治理的强烈影响,其存在有一定的客观必然性。文章论述了两种主要公司模式下会计政策选择的取向,分析了我国上市公司治理的现状及由此而产生的会计政策选择方面的问题。为提高会计政策选择的效率性,我国上市公司应完善公司治理结构,文章对此提出了建议。     

A survey on the bandit problem with switching costs

The paper surveys the literature on the bandit problem, focusing on its recent development in the presence of switching costs. Switching costs between arms makes not only the Gittins index policy suboptimal, but also renders the search for the optimal policy computationally infeasible. This survey will first discuss the decomposability properties of the arms that make the Gittins index policy optimal, and show how these properties break down upon the introduction of costs on switching arms. Having established the failure of the simple index policy, the survey focus on the recent efforts to overcome the difficulty of finding the optimal policy in the bandit problem with switching costs: characterization of the optimal policy, exact derivation of the optimal policy in the restricted environments, and lastly approximation of optimal policy. The advantages and disadvantages of the above approaches are discussed.