Income Tax Evasion Revisited: The Impact of Interest Rate Yields on Tax-Free Municipal Bonds

This study empirically investigates a hypothesis that the degree of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion may be influenced by the interest rate yield on high-grade municipal bonds. After allowing for the impacts of a variety of factors that typically have been inferred to influence income tax evasion, it is found that the higher the tax-free interest rate yield on high-grade municipal bonds relative to the taxable yield on 10-year Treasury notes, the lower the aggregate degree of federal personal income tax evasion.     

The Later You Pay,the Higher the k

This paper shows the importance of the age path (life-cycle timing) of any tax for the accumulation of capital in the economy. Income, consumption, and wage taxes differ in their age paths as well as their incentive effects. This paper studies how the differing age path of each tax affects the capital accumulation of the economy in an empirically calibrated life-cycle model. We investigate lump-sum “age” taxes and find in every case that the later the person pays tax, the higher the k of the economy. To analyze the life-cycle timing effect of conventional transactions-based taxes (income, consumption, and wage), we replace each tax with a lump-sum age tax that has the identical age path of tax payments over the life cycle. We find that the timing effect is quantitatively important and often causes the impact of a tax on capital accumulation to be very different from what would be predicted from the incentive effect.     

Pooling my personal account: Income responses to the payroll tax in China

Developing countries collect not only a far lower share of GDP in taxes, but also less payroll taxes than rich countries. This paper explores income responses to the payroll tax by evaluating the 2006 pension reform that subtracted 3 percentage points of employees' Defined Contribution account in China. First, our estimate of total income elasticity with respect to the pension rate is larger than 2, implying a lower optimal payroll tax rate than in rich countries. Second, we separate total income into labor and non-labor income, and show significant income shifting from labor to non-labor income. Third, we provide suggestive evidence that income responses to the pension reform are from evasion rather than real responses. We emphasize the necessity of administrative capacity for developing countries to extend the pension system. Remarkably, sharing the employer payroll tax with employees may be a self-enforcement mechanism, similar to the value-added tax, of the payroll tax.     

随机增长模型下的税收效应

Turalay Kenc(2004)在一个扩展的随机模型中(不假设常量的投资机会集)分析了资本收入税对增长率、资产组合份额、债券收益率的影响效应。本文在随机资产组合份额的情况下,利用Grinols和Turnovsky(1998)的模型和方法,对此也进行了研究。讨论了具有跨期最优化代理人、随机增长经济中的资本收入税效应,这里,政府可以通过税收、发行货币、发行债券来为它的支出融资。除了货币和政府的债券以外,消费者在他的财富中可以持有风险股票(资本)。得到的部分结论与Turalay Kenc(2004)的一致,也有部分结论不一致。此外,本文还分析了资本收入税对利率、通货膨胀率、本国投资率、福利的影响效应。本文得出的部分结论,尤其是与Turalay Kenc(2004)不一致的结论,在我国也得到了实证支持。     

国外税收结构的收入分配效应研究新进展

目前国外关于税收结构的收入分配效应研究的新进展主要表现在三个方面。第一,税收总量不变情况下一种税收对另一种税收的替代往往存在公平和效率的权衡。一般来说,一种税收对另一种税收的替代在改善收入分配的同时往往不利于经济增长,或者加剧了收入分配但却往往有利于经济增长。第二,不同赶超经济税收结构的收入分配效应存在一些共同点也存在差异。普遍上,"形式上"累进的税收结构在实际过程中并没有改善收入分配,累进所得税因存在大量的逃税而效果有限。第三,税收结构的收入分配效应研究开始应用一些新的分析方法。Bewley模型和CGE模型已经成为了研究税收替代收入分配效应的主流方法,同时,不同的税收累进程度指标选取,收入分配的纵向与横向分解和政府税率结构决策可能受现有收入分配格局影响这三个方面都可能使得研究者重新考察现有分析框架和分析结论。     

调整个人所得税“九级超额累进税率”的建议——调整方案不应忽视对财政收入的影响

近几年学术界针对工资薪金的“九级超额累进税率”提出了“提高免征额、减少级次、降低税率”的调整意见,笔者认为其中有欠妥当。调整个人所得税征收方法不应忽视对财政收入产生的影响。文章通过对征收个人所得税的初衷、我国个人所得税的征收现状、发展趋势以及我国劳动者工     

Marginal and Average Tax Rates and the Incentive for Self-Employment

The paper examines how the incentives for individuals to take up self-employment, rather than paid employment, are influenced by the marginal and average income tax rate. A model is developed in which an individual optimally chooses the supply of labor effort and the amount of tax to evade. Assuming that remuneration is more responsive to effort but that the opportunities for evasion are greater in self-employment, we find a negative relationship between self-employment and the marginal tax rate but a positive relationship with the average rate. This is supported by empirical evidence for 15 OECD countries over the 1980s.     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Top incomes and earnings in Portugal 1936–2005

This paper analyzes income and earnings concentration in Portugal from a long-run perspective using personal income and wage tax statistics. The results suggest that income concentration was much higher during the 1930s and early 1940s than it is today. Top income shares estimated from reported incomes deteriorated during the Second World War, even if Portugal did not take active participation in the conflict. However, the magnitude of the drop was less important than in other European countries. The level of concentration between 1950 and 1970 remained relatively high compared to countries such as Spain, France, UK or the United States. The decrease in income concentration, started very moderately at the end of the 1960s and which accelerated after the revolution of 1974, began to be reversed during the first half of the 1980s. During the last 15 years top income shares have increased steadily. The rise in wage concentration contributed to this process in a significant way. The evidence since 1989 suggests that the level of marginal tax rate at the top has not been a primary determinant of the level of top reported incomes. Marginal rates have stayed constant in a context of growing top shares.     

Top wage incomes in Japan, 1951–2005

Using wage income tax statistics, we construct continuous series of upper wage income shares in Japan from 1951 to 2005 to document the evolution of top wage incomes and investigate their long-run determinants. We find that, while the middle wage income class gained enormously both in absolute and relative terms during the period of high economic growth, the upper wage income class faired comparatively better after 1975. In particular, the shares of total wage accruing to the top 1% wage earners and above have risen steadily since the late 1990s. A simple time-series regression analysis indicates that marginal income tax rates, corporate performance, female labor force participation, and labor disputes are important determinants of top wage income shares in post-WWII Japan. Although not conclusive, our results suggest that much of the recent gains in wage income shares at the top can be explained by the changes in these four factors, placing a less emphasis on a story of structural change.     

Tolerance of tax evasion

We present a formal model in which individuals want the government to tolerate tax evasion because, in a context of limited state capacity, evasion provides insurance. Also, preferred tolerance of tax evasion increases with income, because government programs are redistributive, and decreases with perceived state capacity, because taxation is less distortionary in more capable states. We test the model using a question in the World Values Survey (WVS) about how justifiable cheating on taxes is. We find that tax evasion justifiability views present an inverted-U shape in perceived risk and increase with individuals’ income.

     

Efficiency wages and tax policy

The conventional belief suggests that a tax increase can be regarded as an anti-inflation device because it reduces the aggregate demand. This paper makes a new attempt to reexamine the belief by introducing the principal tenets of the efficiency wage hypothesis. It is found that, in the context of an efficiency wage model, a rise in the income tax may stimulate the domestic price level, rather than depress it.     

Taxation and the redistribution of income

Conclusion This paper has offered no empirical evidence, and is not trying to argue that after-tax relative wage rates will not change at all in response to a change in the progressivity of the tax structure.⁸ Rather, the point is that there is a market mechanism that causes changes in progressivity to be at least partially offset by changes in the pretax wage structure. This mechanism is not taken into account by any model of redistribution through taxation that treats labor output as a homogeneous factor of production. Treating labor output as homogeneous eliminates adjustments to relative wages that are certain to occur in response to a change in the progressivity of the tax structure. Thus, progressive taxation has less ability to redistribute income than is commonly realized. Any shortcomings in the paper remain the responsibility of the authors.     

我国有效税率结构的经济增长效应：基于SVAR模型的实证研究

通过测算我国劳动、资本和消费的有效税率,以反映我国劳动收入、资本收入和消费支出的真实税收负担情况,并在此基础上构建SVAR模型来考察有效税率结构冲击对经济增长的动态影响。结果表明：消费支出有效税率和劳动收入有效税率的提高有利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为正;对资本收入征税,无论在短期还是长期都不利于投资率和经济增长率的提高,长期累积效应为负。研究我国有效税率结构的经济增长动态增长效应,对政府税收政策的制定和实施时机的选择有一定的参考意义。     

Collaborative tax evasion and social norms: why deterrence does not work

This paper makes a preliminary attempt to model a phenomenonof collaborative tax evasion between a seller and his customerand incorporates the social norm into such collusive tax-evadingactivities. It is found that, due to the existence of the socialnorm, more prevalent collaborative tax evasion at the statusquo tends to intensify the extent of the tax evasion itself;this thus furnishes a self-fulfilling equilibrium and it mayalso give rise to multiple equilibria. More importantly, wefind that the snowballing effect stemming from social norm hasa decisive influence not only in determining the conformityof consumers to the tax code, but also the deterrent effectof the authority's tax enforcement. If collaborative tax evasionis initially rampant, raising fines for tax evasion will giverise to a strong venal effect that will increase tax evasion.Once this perverse effect outweighs the usual deterrent effectassociated with raising fines for tax evasion, a more severefine may result in higher rather than lower tax evasion.     

投资率与地方政府增值税税源——基于静态和动态面板数据模型的实证分析

文章从全国和省级两个层次,对我国投资率与地方政府增值税税源状况进行描述,并根据国民收入恒等式从理论上证明,提高投资率将会增加地方政府的增值税税源。在此基础上,使用静态和动态面板数据模型,就投资率对地方政府增值税税源的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明:我国的投资率与地方政府增值税税源成倒U型曲线关系;地方政府增值税税源在时间上具有连续性。基于增值税税源因素的考虑,地方政府有推高投资率的动机,但过高的投资率将侵蚀地方政府增值税税源。我国地方政府应适当控制本辖区的投资率水平,并保持经济调控政策的稳定性。     

AN OPEN SHOP, WAGE BARGAINING, AND TAXATION--A NOTE

In a social custom model of union membership with wage bargaining,higher levels of company taxes lower wages while having uncertainemployment effects. A higher marginal income tax rate increasesemployment. Changes solely in the level of income taxation,retaining marginal rates, have ambiguous wage and employmentconsequences. Endogenising union membership therefore does notalter the effects of tax changes in comparison to a right-tomanagemodel with exogenously fixed level of density.     

两税合并对我国吸引外资的影响分析

两税合并主要是指对内外资企业所得税实行统一税法、统一税率、统一税前扣除标准、统一优惠政策。本文从对引进外资规模的影响和引进外资结构与投向两个方面分析了两税合并对我国吸引外资的影响。     

Wage setting and tax progressivity in dynamic general equilibrium

This paper concerns the implications of progressive labor incometaxation for wage determination in dynamic general equilibrium.The main purpose is to analyze the general equilibrium effectsof increased tax progressivity in terms of the responses inthe real wage rate, employment, the capital stock, output andconsumption. Among the results, we find that increased tax progressivityincreases the real wage rate and decreases employment underboth union and competitive wage formation.     

Genes and Social Mobility: A Case for Progressive Income Tax

Abstract

The effect of ability inheritance on income distribution and social mobility is analyzed with an emphsis on the role of progressive income tax. Epstein–Zin style utility function is used to highlight the role of risk aversion. The result shows that higher genetic inheritability leads to lower per capita income, higher income variance and lower aggregate welfare at the steady state. This tendency is intensified when the elasticity of a child's income to parent's educational investment is higher. In this setup, it is shown that progressive income tax can be a welfare-enhancing tool by increasing social mobility. The optimal progressive income tax rate is obtained in the benchmark model and its positive effect is discussed in the context of “Veil of ignorance”, a concept proposed by Rawls (A Theory of Justice (Cambridge, MA: Harvard, University Press), 1971).