交通企业集团财务预警模型的构建

本文研究目的在于寻找出具有显著预测能力的财务指标,构建适用于交通企业集团的财务预警模型,对潜在风险实时监控、识别,对可能面临的风险进行预警。通过对交通企业集团经营特点及资产结构相似的88家上市公司过去两年的财务数据进行统计和分析,结合过去该领域所取得的成就,建立了Logistic回归的预警判别模型,该模型对原始样本的判别准确率为93.8%。最后利用构建的财务预警模型,对20家交通行业所属企业进行了财务风险判断。     

上市公司财务预警系统的构建与实施建议

构建上市公司财务预警系统是通过观察预警指标的变化,借助有关财务分析方法,对公司可能出现的财务危机进行监控和报警。在论述财务预警系统构建的预测性和动态性原则基础上,论述了财务预警系统的构建步骤,并对确保系统的有效实施提出了相关建议。     

基于BP神经网络模型的我国航空公司财务风险预警实证研究

随着国内经济体制改革不断深化和航权的不断开放,我国航空公司以其自身航线网络的覆盖为全国乃至世界的经济联络和交流做出了突出的贡献,然而,错综复杂的经济环境决定了航空公司更需防范潜在的财务风险,避免陷入财务危机。本文将采取主成分分析方法来对所选取的预警指标降低维度进行优化,运用优化后的预警指标构建基于BP神经网络模型的航空公司财务风险预警模型。本文选取2004年至2016年(剔除数据不全年份)四大航空公司共49个样本的财务和非财务数据,对2005年至2017年航空公司的财务风险进行预测。其中,38个样本作为训练样本,11个作为检测样本,检测结果表明:基于BP神经网络模型的航空公司财务风险预警模型具有较好的预测效果,可以进行有效的财务预警。     

物流类上市企业财务风险实证分析及控制策略探究

财务风险预警模型可以从定量角度客观而准确地判断企业的财务危机程度,通过收集与企业经营相关的产业政策、市场竞争状况、企业本身的各类财务和生产经营状况信息,进行分析比较。     

铁路车务系统安全风险预警防范系统探讨

针对铁路车务系统安全风险管理现状,根据车务系统安全风险预警防范过程,提出基于风险因子分级管理、风险因子权重和风险因子分类的车务系统安全风险评价,建立安全风险预警模型和安全风险防范体系。通过实例分析,对车站调车作业安全风险进行分类和评价,并根据安全风险管理内容和工作目标,提出车务系统提高安全风险预警防范能力的措施。     

油库作业预警等级确定的指标体系分析和模糊评价研究

针对油库作业预警等级科学选择的重要性,本文将层次分析法和模糊评价进行结合,建立了多级综合评价模型。同时,应用该算法对具体实例进行评估,以得出完整的决策过程。     

浅议集团企业财务预警机制的建立

本文从集团企业的角度出发,针对可能面临的财务危机,探讨建立行之有效的财务预警机制,以提高企业抗风险能力,为企业长远发展保驾护航。     

论高速公路上市公司财务风险与控制

随着国家对基础设施建设的大力推进,高速公路建设得到了快速和长足的发展。由于高速公路建设的行业特殊性,其建设过程受到投资金额大、建设周期长、工程参与方多、环境干扰大等众多因素的影响,使得在高速公路建设中潜在着各种风险,其中财务风险是最重要的影响因素之一。本文基于Z记分模型和主成分分析法,采用高速公路上市公司2008～2010年的经验数据,对高速公路上市公司的财务风险进行分析,并以现代投资股份有限公司为核心对象,分析财务风险产生的原因,提出降低高速公路上市公司财务风险的建议。     

基于主成分分析的我国航运上市公司盈利能力分析与预测

为分析我国航运上市公司盈利能力,本文选取10家航运上市公司,根据其2003～2011年的财务数据,采用主成分分析法构建体现盈利能力的综合计量指标,根据该综合计量指标对我国航运上市公司的盈利状况进行分析和预测。     

基于因子分析法的我国水上运输业上市公司财务绩效分析

<正>本文利用因子分析法对我国水上运输业28家上市公司的财务绩效进行研究。通过实证分析以期更为全面准确评价该行业上市公司财务绩效的发展情况及主要影响因素,有助于企业结合自身财务状况及时调整经营战略,实现高质量的发展。一、引言。我国改革开放以来,海运贸易量急剧增加,水上运输业作为我国对外贸易的重要载体,同时也是支撑国际贸易繁荣发展的重要行业,受到了广泛关注和快速发展。近年来国内外越来越多的学者选择将水上运输业作为研究对象展开研究,     

我国上市物流公司效率分析

运用DEA模型测算我国21家物流上市公司的总体技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率,测算结果表明:我国上市物流公司总体技术效率不高,港口类和运输类上市物流公司的总体技术效率相差不大,上市物流公司投入要素组合比较合理,但存在投入冗余、产出略显不足的问题。在此基础上,提出相应的对策:建立合适的管理体制,加大在高新技术上的投入比重,削减业务成本及管理费用,促进资源的优化配置,调整投入要素组合。     

我国运输行业上市公司企业社会责任信息披露情况研究

以我国A股上市交易的运输行业上市公司作为研究对象,运用描述性分析和多元线性回归方法对运输行业上市公司企业社会责任信息披露情况进行研究.研究结果表明:2008年我国运输行业上市公司社会责任信息披露比例较以前年度有显著提高,尤其是采用独立报告模式披露社会责任信息的企业数量显著增加;在企业社会责任信息披露的内容和方式上,节能减排等环境方面的信息披露比例有显著提高,但是在安全生产及债权人等方面的信息披露还有待加强;在公司特征方面,公司规模越大、盈利能力越强的上市公司越倾向于披露更多的企业社会责任信息,而且从地域分布上看,沪、深两地区企业的信息披露状况未显著好于其他地区的企业.     

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock returns of Turkish tourism companies

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has various implications for financial markets. This study examines the effects of EPU on stock prices of listed tourism companies in Turkey for the time period of 2002–2013. We show that EPU in Europe and Turkey has significant negative effects on tourism index returns. The finding reflects that stock returns of the Turkish tourism companies apparently depend on domestic and international economic uncertainty. Among the included macroeconomic variables, consumer confidence index is the only factor which has an impact on stock returns.     

Corporate social responsibility disclosure: The case of international shipping

Based on practices and legislation in the shipping industry, we construct a corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure index for listed shipping companies. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for Bayesian inference, and we estimate the marginal effects of firm characteristics on CSR disclosure for each firm. Our results show a positive relationship between CSR disclosure and financial performance for each firm in our international sample. Firm size, financial leverage, and ownership structure are also associated with CSR disclosure. Our findings suggest that a majority of listed shipping companies have integrated CSR practices into their strategic planning and operations.     

中美铁路上市公司绩效比较及政策含义

从在纽约证券交易所上市的铁路运输公司的市场表现入手,对其市场绩效、财务绩效进行分析,对比在上海、香港、纽约三地上市的广深铁路股份有限公司（简称GSH）与在纽约上市的北美五家铁路上市公司,GSH的净资产报酬率大大低于北美铁路上市公司。其原因是GSH的销售净利润率较高,权益乘数、总资产周转率大大低于北美铁路上市公司,其成因主要是GSH享受了特殊运价政策、债务性融资比例低、在建工程比例大和现金资产管理效率低。通过分析,对铁路运价定价、铁路企业上市融资、上市公司管理提出建议。     

Tourism Perspectives of the Asian Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Future

This paper reviews the causes of the Asian financial crisis,the implications for tourism, and identifies salient lessons that may be employed in dealing with future crises. Written just after the conclusion of the financial crisis, the paper finds that the crisis did not have as great an impact on tourism in East Asia as first feared and observes that tourism may be more resilient to crises than previously anticipated. The paper also notes that the tourism literature has been largely silent on the impact of the crisis and discusses the need for greater analysis of economic issues.     

Evaluating energy efficiency for airlines: An application of VFB-DEA

In this paper, the energy efficiency of airlines has been studied with number of employees, capital stock and tons of aviation kerosene as the inputs and Revenue Ton Kilometers, Revenue Passenger Kilometers, total business income and CO₂ emissions decrease index as the outputs. A new model, Virtual Frontier Benevolent DEA Cross Efficiency model (VFB-DEA), is proposed to calculate the energy efficiencies of 11 airlines from 2008 to 2012. Spearman correlation coefficient is applied to validate the applicability of the new model. The results indicate that capital efficiency is an important factor in driving energy efficiency, and the American financial crisis had a significant influence on the change in energy efficiency during this period.     

Capital structure decisions of globally-listed shipping companies

Debt capital has traditionally been the most important source of external finance in the shipping industry. The access that shipping companies nowadays have to the capital markets provides them with a broader range of financing instruments. As such, this study investigates the determinants of capital structure decisions using a sample of 115 exchange-listed shipping companies. We test whether listed shipping companies follow a target capital structure, and we analyze their adjustment dynamics after deviations from this target leverage ratio. When compared with industrial firms from the G7 countries, shipping companies exhibit higher leverage ratios and higher financial risk. Standard capital structure variables exert a significant impact on the cross-sectional variation of leverage ratios in the shipping industry. Asset tangibility is positively related to corporate leverage, and its economic impact is more pronounced than in other industries. Profitability, asset risk, and operating leverage are all inversely related to leverage. There is only weak evidence for market-timing behavior of shipping companies. Because demand and supply in the maritime industry are closely related to the macroeconomic environment, leverage behaves counter-cyclically. Using different dynamic panel estimators, we further document that the speed of adjustment after deviations from the target leverage ratio is lower during economic recessions. On average, however, the capital structure adjustment speed in the maritime industry is higher compared with the G7 benchmark sample. These findings indicate that there are substantial costs of deviation from the target leverage ratio due to high expected costs of financial distress. Our results have implications for shipping companies’ risk management activities.     

缓解金融危机措施浅析

阐述金融危机的起因,分析世界性金融危机后我国已经采取的措施,探讨未来我国还可采取何种措施度过这场金融风暴。     

Application of structural equation modelling for estimating airline performance

Structural equation modelling (SEM) is an estimation method that can handle a large number of exogenous and endogenous factors as well as unobserved (latent) variables that are specified as linear combinations of observed (measurement) factors. This paper presents a SEM procedure with latent variables for estimating the financial and non-financial performance in airline companies. The model includes independent, mediator and dependent latent variables. The sample for this research comprises 214 airline companies. The results indicate that the model is capable of estimating performance with respect to the economic situation and it has also been determined that two types of constructs affect performance. One type is the economic situation acting as an initial construct and the other is the internal operation acting as the mediator in the research model.