Urbanization and the problem of restricting the growth of very large cities

This article discusses the problem of preventing the excessive growth of very large cities to the detriment of the development of smaller urban settlements in the USSR. The increase in size of the urban population throughout the entire USSR is mainly connected with the increase in the number of city dwellers. In 1960 and 1970 the number of largest cities in the USSR increased, along with a share of the nation's population living in these large cities. The low natural increase in population of very large cities creates a high demand for labor power which must come from the population of other cities. In 1970-1980, Moscow, one of the largest millionaire cities, had the lowest population growth rate of all major USSR cities (113.7%). The growth of Moscow and other very large cities in the last few years has been due to the mechanical increase in population and the increase in area. The analysis of Moscow's pattern of population growth over time focuses on changes in the level of availability of social and everyday services. The prewar period is characterized by a reserve of labor resources, the highest growth in industry and science, but a low overall population dynamic in the city. In the postwar period there was a significant decline in the annual increase of all indicators; this was a period of strong social development of the city. The period between 1966 and 1980 shows a further slowdown in the growth rate of city forming branches by an accelerated development of municipal service branches. The demand for measures to restrict the growth of very large Soviet cities depends on: 1) the reorientation of the development of the economic base, 2) the restructuring of their economy, and 3) the siting of various types of production of goods and services. Developing the specialization of the urban economy consists of planned development of the production of goods and services based on the use of available resources.     

江苏省城市化进程与现状特征研究

本文从城市化的概念、表现和度量指标出发,分析了现行城镇人口统计中存在的问题,指出城镇人口应包括的人口范围。并把江苏城市化发展过程分为六个阶段,对发展的现状特征进行了分析研究。     

“五普”至“六普”期间中国城镇人口的增长构成

利用2000年和2010年的全国人口普查资料、2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料以及国家统计局公布的相关人口数据,对第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查期间中国城镇人口的增长构成进行了估算。在"五普"至"六普"期间中国城镇人口的增长构成发生了很大的变化,具体表现在人口从农村向城镇的迁移已成为中国城镇人口增长的主要来源。在面临中国城镇人口增长模式发生深刻变革的时候,中国亟需解决的问题是从政策和制度层面为从农村转移到城镇的人口的就业、住房、医疗、教育和社会保障等创造良好的条件,使他们在城镇里安居乐业,从而巩固人口迁移对中国城市化的贡献,使中国的城市化顺利发展。     

The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question

There is an extensive literature on the urbanization process looking at both urbanization and urban concentration, asking whether and when there is under or over-urbanization or under or over urban concentration. Writers argue that national government policies and non-democratic institutions promote excessive concentration—the extent to which the urban population of a country is concentrated in one or two major metropolitan areas—except in former planned economies where migration restrictions are enforced. These literatures assume that there is an optimal level of urbanization or an optimal level of urban concentration, but no research to date has quantitatively examined the assumption and asked the basic “so-what” question—how great are the economic losses from significant deviations from any optimal degrees of urban concentration or rates of urbanization? This paper shows that (1) there is a best degree of urban concentration, in terms of maximizing productivity growth (2) that best degree varies with the level of development and country size, and (3) over or under-concentration can be very costly in terms of productivity growth. The paper shows also that productivity growth is not strongly affected by urbanization per se. Rapid urbanization has often occurred in the face of low or negative economic growth over some decades. Moreover, urbanization is a transitory phenomenon where many countries are now fully urbanized.     

The emergence of extended metropolitan regions in ASEAN: towards the year 2000

"This article analyses the growth of large Extended Metropolitan Regions in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the period since 1960. The analysis reveals two trends. First, urbanization levels in ASEAN countries are rapidly increasing. By the year 2000, almost 40 per cent of the population will be urban residents. Second, these accelerating processes are creating giant urban regions, called Extended Metropolitan Regions. Analysis of demographic patterns of the emergence of the major urban regions of ASEAN...reveals that these are major areas of economic growth, with industrialization, building development and leisure activities fuelling this process. However, this rapid growth is causing major problems of urban infrastructure provision, land use conflict and environmental deterioration."     

Quantitative study on the urban fresh Water consumption since Chinese rapid urbanization

The development of urbanization has a close relationship with fresh water resources,especially in the rapid urbanization period By analyzing the course of the urbanization development and the experience of international ur banization development,the paper confiums the starting time of the rapid urbanization.Based on the ecological thecry,urban fresh water consumption is composed of three types:the direct,the indirect and the induced water consump tion.And the paper constructs calculation model of the indirect and the induced water consumption.Using the related statistics data,the paper makes an empirical research on the changes of the amount and structure of water consumption.Then it discusses the correlation between the water consumption and the amount of urban population,and theresult shows that the amount of the water consumption and the urban population have a remarkable correlation with the exception of the amount of the indirect water consumption,and the curves take on quadratic function form.Last from the urban function point of view,the paper anatomizes the cause of the urban water consumption changes.     

市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发展的影响

探讨了改革开放以来中国的市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径的变化与中国城市化发展之间的关系。市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径等行政因素对中国城市化水平有重要影响。当前,中国的城市化水平具有高估的现象,表现在城镇人口中农业人口的比重过高和城镇就业人口中从事第一产业的人口比重较高。未来中国城市化的发展在提高城市化水平的同时,更重要的是需要提高城镇人口中非农业人口的比重,改善城镇人口的就业结构,同时制定客观、合理的市镇设置标准和市、镇人口统计口径,使中国的城市化水平真正反映中国城市化的实际发展状况。     

基于可持续发展的城市综合评价体系实证研究--以西安市为例

随着中国经济的快速发展,城市化步伐呈现加快的趋势,但城市规模的盲目扩大产生了高昂的生态成本.针对目前中国城市的发展现状,本文提出城市可持续发展模式,构建了包含经济、社会、人口、资源和环境的城市可持续发展综合评价指标体系.并以西安市为案例,系统测度了西安市的可持续发展能力.实证结果表明,西安市呈弱可持续发展状态,尤其是人口、环境和资源体系问题严峻.对城市可持续发展的定量评估将为政府监测城市的可持续发展、制定城市发展规划提供理论依据,这对我国目前的城市化发展具有一定的指导意义.     

市场开放进程中的工业企业集聚与人口城市化——长三角地区人口城市化的动因探析(1984—2002)

在渐进的市场改革和开放进程中,长三角地区以城市人口不断增加为表现的人口城市化进程并没有遵循城市化进程的国际经验,即城市化主要来自工业化的推动,而主要由于工业企业集中、政府干预和市场促进等多种因素的相互作用,人口城市化发展的演进特征则是上述诸多因素共同作用的结果。确切地说,不断增加的工业生产活动并没有对长江三角洲地区的城市化进程发挥明显作用,特别是在城市化加速发展阶段,市场开放进程中不断向市区集聚的工业企业的集聚行为(而非工业化)在很大程度上促进了城市化的快速发展。考察和分析了不同阶段长三角人口城市化发展的不同特征和区域差异。     

二次城市化、土地开发与经济增长

文章将二次城市化水平定义为城镇户籍人口占城镇总人口的比重,构建了一个包含城市化、二次城市化和城市土地开发的中央计划者模型,在利用1985-2008年数据对模型参数进行估计的基础上,模拟分析了城市化对经济增长的影响。结果发现,城市化水平的提高对经济增长有积极作用;当人口在城市落户的成本较高时,提高二次城市化水平和城市用地相对面积会显著降低经济增长率;当落户成本较低时,上述负面影响并不明显。在进一步推进城市化的同时,应保持城乡用地的动态平衡,根据落户成本施行差别化的户籍开放和土地开发政策,让中小城市和小城镇成为吸纳人口进城落户的主要场所,这为"十二五"规划建议中有关城镇化的内容提供了理论依据。     

Sustainable development of Shandong peninsula Peninsula urban agglomeration: a scenario analysis based on water shortage and water environment changes

China has experienced a rapid urbanization since late 1970s. The great increase of urban population has resulted in various environmental changes, of which urban water shortage and water environment problems have occurred in most cities, especially in the rapidly developing urban agglomerations in the eastern coastal region. This research, taking Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration (SPUA) as a case study area, analyzes the urbanization expansion in the last decades, discusses the water shortage and water environment changes following the rapid economic development and urbanization such as groundwater sinking in the urban and plain area, sea water and salt-water intrusion in the coastal cities, water pollution overspreading and "water ecosystem degradation, and puts forwards some strategies for sustainability in populous regions with severe water shortage. Some countermeasures for sustainable development of SPUA are put forward, such as modern water resources inter-city networks to regulate water resource between cities, adjusting urbanization policy and urban scale planning to promote the development of small towns and medium sized cities, optimizing urban industry structure by restricting high water consumption enterprises and stimulating the growth of tertiary industry, improving water use efficient to reduce freshwater consumption and wastewater discharge, introducing economic means to water pricing and water management system. and restoring ecological conditions to strengthen the natural water-making capacity.     

Will China’s population aging be a threat to its future consumption?

ABSTRACT

Based on the household level survey data, the paper makes a projection on China’s household consumption in 2049 with reasonable assumptions of disposable income, demographic structure, urbanization rate and total population in 2049. The results show that at annual income growth rates of 3%, 4% and 5%, China’s total household consumption in 2049 will be 71.0, 97.8 and 133.8 trillion CNY, respectively, 3.1~5.8 times of the total household consumption in 2015. Moreover, our projection shows that even excluding the income growth effect, the future consumption increased by rapid urbanization is much larger than the consumption depressed by the demographic change. The result highlights that as long as the Chinese government can successfully eliminate institutional constraints imposed on rural-urban migration, such as Hukou system or residency permits in the urban areas, population aging would not be a major threat to its future development.     

美国"精明增长"战略对北京郊区新城建设的启示

精明增长战略是针对美国城市郊区化发展后期城市过度蔓延所提出的一种城市发展新概念,旨在在提高土地利用效率的基础上控制城市扩张、保护生态环境、服务于经济发展、促进城乡协调发展和人们生活质量的提高。改革开放以来,北京进入快速城市化时期,其中一个重要特征就是不断向郊区的平面扩张。在北京郊区新城的建设过程中,存在配套服务设施滞后、交通拥堵、土地粗放利用等问题。深刻把握精明增长战略的内涵,吸取美国的经验教训,对北京郊区新城的建设有十分重要的启示作用。     

健康城市化与农地制度改革

我国人口众多,耕地资源相对稀缺,目前又面临人口膨胀、工业化与城市化的挑战,如何正确处理土地与城市发展的关系.引导我国城市化健康持续发展,成为摆在我们面前的重要议题.分析了我国在城市化进程中出现的不合理现象,并指出问题根源在于农地制度的缺陷所导致的政府在土地市场的垄断.进一步探讨农地制度改革的途径,目的在于打破政府垄断局面,发挥市场在土地资源配置中的作用,保护失地农民的权益,为城市健康发展提供必要的、有利的条件.     

多维人口结构变动的交互经济影响——基于老龄化、城镇化和市民化视角的考察

人口年龄结构老龄化、 城乡结构城镇化与户籍结构市民化是中国人口结构变动的三大趋势特征, 并将对中国经济增长产生多重冲击与交互影响. 考察人口多个维度结构变动对经济的综合影响, 对更好地把握人口老龄化背景下的人口经济关系具有重要的理论及现实意义. 本文基于2001—2012年中国省级面板数据对这种交互影响进行了考察. 结果表明, 人口老龄化、城镇化和市民化趋势会对经济增长分别产生负面、 正向以及U型影响. 从交互影响看, 随着人口城镇化与市民化进程的推进, 将有效缓解人口老龄化对经济增长带来的负面影响, 而老龄化程度的加剧会弱化城镇化与市民化对经济增长的正向影响, 市民化则有助于改善城镇化对经济增长的正面影响. 这表明在人口老龄化过程中, 尽早以市民化助推城镇化是实现经济较快增长的有效途径.     

中国的城市化:从空间到人口

城市空间的扩张仅仅是城市化进程加速的前提,城市社会关系的和谐、福利的公平分享才是城市化的本质所在。我国城市化在经历了空间的快速扩张之后,今后要解决的重点问题是加速人口的城市化进程,进一步协调利益分配关系,实现城市福利的分享和城市经济的可持续发展。     

论城市土地一级开发中的政府治理

中国已进入城市化的快速发展期,未来二三十年城市空间扩张将是中国城市化的物质表现形式,城市土地一级开发是城市规划实施的一种措施,既具有经济意义,也具有社会意义。通过深入分析当前中国城市土地一级开发中存在的问题和原因,从制度层面和管理层面提出完善城市土地一级开发中政府治理的建议。     

Water resources constraint force on urbanization in water deficient regions: A case study of the Hexi Corridor,arid area of NW China

Based on analysis of water crisis during rapid urbanization especially in arid and semi-arid areas around the world, the concept of Water Resources Constraint Force (WRCF) is presented. The method utilized to identify the existence of WRCF is also introduced. After a logarithmic relationship model between urbanization level and total water utilization is established, the method to measure the WRCF on urbanization is also obtained. A case study of the Hexi Corridor, a typical arid area in NW China is presented. The results indicate that when the population, economic and urban scales approach or exceed the water resources carrying capacity, or the utilization of water resources approaches or exceeds the threshold of natural water resources, the water resources system significantly slows down the development of socio-economic systems, including the urbanization process. Furthermore, where the scarcer water resources are, the larger water resources constraint intensity (WRCI) is. In the Hexi Corridor, the WRCI is the largest in the Shiyang River Basin, in the eastern part, and where water resources are the scarcest. The WRCI in the middle and western part of the Hexi Corridor is relatively smaller because of relatively more water resources. Subsequently, areas within the Hexi Corridor should take a range of different measures to lessen the WRCF on urbanization according to their specific water resources constraint types: (1) Areas of the very strong constraint type should take emergency measures to resolve their water problems, including transferring water from other river basins, limiting the population, economic and urban scales, innovating in institution, policy and technology of water utilization, and strengthening water resources planning and management in the whole river basin; (2) areas of the less strong constraint type should avoid traditional methods of water utilization during the process of urbanization and industrialization in areas of the very strong constraint type. They should adjust the urbanization pattern and construct an intensive water resources utilization system, so that total water utilization can realize zero or negative growth and water-ecology–economy system can realize harmonic and sustainable development.     

新型城镇化进程中长三角城市群生态效率的时空演变及影响因素

长三角城市群城镇化的快速推进带来经济效益的同时,生态文明建设相对滞后的矛盾日益凸显,生态效率的研究对于协调城镇化发展与生态文明建设的意义重大。基于2003-2017年长三角26市的面板数据,以改进的熵权TOPSIS计算新型城镇化水平,通过随机前沿模型量化生态效率,运用空间混合模型分析其与新型城镇化的关系及影响因素,结果表明:①长三角城市群的生态效率保持稳定的增长趋势,生态效率较低的城市拥有更大的提升空间。②较高生态效率的城市分布格局呈"Z"型集聚,长三角城市群已由中等效率主导阶段向较高效率主导阶段转变。③长三角各省市均达到新型城镇化与生态效率二次关系的拐点值,另外,提高能源利用率、合理引入外商投资、以技术推动经济转型能有效提高生态效率。     

Pattern and mechanism of urban spatial growth in Nanjing City,1979-2007

Urban spatial growth has become a hot topic of geographic science and urban research.Exploring the patterns and mechanisms of urban growth is the prerequisite to understand the urbanization process of China.The paper provides a spatial analysis method of using Remote Sensing(RS)and Geographic Information System(GIS),and presents major patterns and mechanisms of urhan spatial growth during the period from 1979 to 2007 in Nanjing City.Firstly,the paper introduces the data,study area and methodology of the research.Then,the patterns of urban spatial growth are identified.Subsequently,the main mechanisms of urban spatial growth are analyzed.Finally,some conclusions are drawn definitely.The features of urban spatial growth in Nanjing are as follows: during 1979-1988,urban spatial growth of each district was slow,and the inner growth was in excess of suburban growth;during the period of 1988-2000.urban growth of suburban was in excess of inner city the most insensitive growth appeared in the southeast,and the growth of each aspect was relatively insensitive expect east and west; during the period of 2000-2007,urban growth of suburban was violent,the most insensitive growth appeared in the southeast,and the urban growth of each direction was insensitive except the west.The mechanisms of urban.spatial growth are complex,the main ones of which are social and economic development.Besides,the guiding of urban planning and influence of urban spatial structure are quite obvious.