The Unequal Distribution of Job Insecurity, 1966-86

In the first half of this paper the evidence concerning the costs of job insecurity is presented. There is now sufficient good research data to conclude that job insecurity is damaging to psychological health, marriages and employee motivation, and contributes to 'cycles of disadvantage'. In the second half of this paper, flows out of secure and insecure jobs are analysed using a work-histories dataset. Not only is it the case that flows from secure to insecure jobs were more common in the 1980s than in the 1970s and 1960s, but it is also apparent that the risk of a transition from a secure job into an insecure job is much greater for those in less advantaged jobs. The negative consequences of this further polarisation of the UK labour market are discussed.     

The crisis of urbanization in Asia: finding alternatives to megalopolitan growth

The rapid expansion of large Asian cities generates serious social, economic, and physical problems, and has thereby forced these areas to create alternative expansion plans, such as the idea of building up secondary cities and towns. The result of the rapid expansion of large cities, combined with poor urban management, accentuates the mass poverty in many Asian cities. This large urban population is expected to double or triple in size between 1970 and 2000. Because substantial resources are required to manage these megalopolitan areas, it is reasonable to deduce that millions of these city dwellers will be living in absolute poverty by 2000. It is the prospect of continued rapid growth over the next 2 decades that presents the most serious problem for Asian countries. Most metropolises cannot provide enough jobs for the current work force. In addition, public facilities, housing, transportation, and health services are examples of other problems threatened by a heavy concentration of people. Attempts to control this growth have been unsuccessful, mainly due to the 1950s and 1960s emphasis on productive investment, which left rural regions underdeveloped and poor. Secondary cities and regional centers in Asia perform important functions in promoting widespread economic and social development: 1) they stimulate rural economies and therefore establish a pattern of step-wise migration, and 2) they absorb population and therefore, relieve some of the pressure put on the largest metropolitan areas. Studies of secondary cities and their attempts at controlling growth of large metropolitan centers suggest broad guidelines for strategies. Some of these are: 1) the existence of large metropolises has little effect on the growth of primate cities; 2) few controls on growth of large areas are likely to be effective unless there are viable alternative locations at which high threshold economic activities can operate; 3) secondary cities must be closely related to the agricultural economies of their rural hinterlands; and 4) attention must be given to improving transportation and other communication between large metropolitan centers, secondary cities, and smaller cities and towns. The continued concentration of people and economic activities in vast megalopolitan areas will continue to generate serious economic and social problems that may help stimulate the evolution of some of these strategies.     

The trend of welfare disparity among subgroups of population in Australia 1983-1984 - 1993-1994

The aim of this paper is to estimate the trend of social welfare for Australia using 1983–1984, 1988–1989 and 1993–1994 Household Expenditure Survey data. The functional form of the Social Welfare Function (SWF) was derived by Sen, Degum, Yitzhaki and Shesinski (all independently). Since the function contains the Gini coefficient as the inequality parameter, it could not be formally disaggregated by subgroups of population. This paper, using a method of subgroup decomposition of the Gini coefficient developed by Podder, attempts to disaggregate the SWF. With this method it is now possible to identify disadvantaged groups by their relative shares in total welfare. In addition the method is used to determine effect of economic growth on specific subgroups, and in turn, on total social welfare. This study is based on the Australian economy. Distribution of relative shares of total social welfare among various regional groups are identified, groups determined by occupational status and groups determined by country of birth. The effect on society's welfare for a percentage change in income of a group and the trend of relative welfare of a specific group are also computed. This information can be used in a variety of social decision making situations, including cost benefit analysis.     

The UK's monetarist experiment, 1979–1984

The paper provides an evaluation of the ‘monetarist experiment’ in the United Kingdom over the period 1979–1984. In the first half of the paper the distinctive character of the policies pursued in this period is outlined. In the second half, an econometric model, that of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (version 7) is used to calculate the contribution of the policies and of the parallel world recession to the domestic recession and to the fall in inflation. The results, which are comparable with those reported in earlier studies, suggest that fiscal and monetary policy was responsible for about a third of the recession, more than can be attributed to the world recession. Comparatively little of the decline in inflation in this period is attributable to policy.     

我国城镇化模式的改革与创新

我国城镇化进程中,传统城镇化模式的弊端日益显现,如何探索新型城镇化模式的内涵,创新城镇化模式路径,引导我国城镇化发展方向,值得研究。通过对我国现有城镇化模式及其存在的问题的分析,提出城镇化模式中以产业规模决定就业规模、以就业规模决定人口规模的城镇规模创新,实现联合办公、综合管理的管理方式创新,发展生活性和生产性服务业的经济增长方式创新和文化建设中抓教育的创新,以推进城镇化有序发展。     

Economic growth and urbanization: A cross-section and time-series analysis of thirty-five developing countries

In this paper, we discuss the influence of urbanization and urban primacy on the economic growth rates of developing nations. Included in the paper is preliminary evidence, from cross-section and time-series analyses, that while urbanization is an inevitable product of economic development, the process of urbanization is best achieved when the urbanization is managed and gradual. Time-series and cross-section analyses indicate a negative relationship between urbanization and urban primacy and economic growth. However, further cross-section analysis shows that all industrialized economies are highly-urbanized. The dichotomy is explained in that urbanization is inevitable with economic growth, but the pace and character of urbanization also matters. We present a basic model that predicts the economic growth rates of developing nations. The tests performed could only follow the general tone of the model because of the limitations of the data sources. (JEL: O10, O18, O40)     

The oil price increase and the alleviation of poverty: Income distribution in Caracas,Venezuela, in 1966 and 1975

Two Caracas household budget surveys are used to compare household and individual income distributions. Real 1975 incomes are derived from income-specific price indexes. Minimum food budgets define destitution and poverty levels. During 1966–1975 mean real income rose substantially, especially among the rich. The fraction poor declined markedly, but mean income did not rise for those remaining poor. The poor's share of income growth came entirely from reduction in the number of poor, and exceeded their 1966 income share. The poverty gap expanded with population growth but shrank in per capita terms and relative to total income.     

Determinants of household supply of labour in food-for-work programme in Tigray,Ethiopia

We study the factors that determine the household supply of labour in food-for-work (FFW) projects that seek to address food insecurity and help capital formation in development. Based on data from a survey conducted in 2003 in Tigray, Ethiopia, our probit analysis identifies factors that significantly affect the household decision to participate in FFW programmes. We correct for selection bias, and estimate total and excess supply of FFW labour. Our finding of substantial leakages in targeting that allow relatively well-off households to obtain FFW employment yield important implications for the prevailing FFW wage. We also argue that FFW programmes will be more effective if they are designed to account for geographic heterogeneity in such factors as male to female labour participation differences and the incidence of debilitating diseases.     

Human capital,innovation capability and economic growth in Portugal, 1960-2001

In maintaining that the main flaw in empirical studies on economic growth derives from the fact that they employ Solow-style neoclassical growth models, rather than testing actual endogenous growth theory, we examine the human capital-innovation-growth nexus, thus testing new growth theory more directly. We test its insights against the economic evolution of an individual country, Portugal, using time series data from 1960 to 2001. Estimates based on vector autoregressive and cointegration analysis seem to confirm that human capital and indigenous innovation efforts were enormously important to the economic growth process in Portugal during the period of study. In particular, the indirect effect of human capital through innovation, emerges here as being critical, showing that a reasonably high stock of human capital is necessary to enable a country to reap the benefits of its indigenous innovation efforts.Received: November 2003, Accepted: November 2004, JEL Classification: C22, J24, O30, O40 Correspondence to: Aurora A.C. TeixeiraThe authors are grateful to two anonymous referees, Paulo Brito and the participants of the 2003 Portuguese Society for Economics Research (SPiE) in Lisbon, Portugal for helpful comments and suggestions. CEMPRE - Centro de Estudos Macroeconómicos e Previsão - is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the Programa Operacional Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (POCTI) of the Quadro Comunitário de Apoio III, which is financed by FEDER and Portuguese funds.