Workers' self-management and planning: The Yugoslav case

The new constitution that Yugoslavia adopted in 1974 provides an elaborate blueprint for a workers' self-managed economy. One feature of the constitutional changes is that, in addition to continuing to strengthen the role of workers in decision-making, they strengthen the ability for macroeconomic co-ordination and, specifically, the role of planning. To reconcile the seemingly conflicting objectives of decentralizing and co-ordinating decision-making, a novel form of participative planning was introduced. The new system of self-management planning, although having elements of central planning and indicative planning, is radically different from both. This paper, after briefly reviewing the evolution of planning in Yugoslavia, analyses the rules, procedures and theoretical premises of the new system of planning codified in 1976.     

Origins of regional divergence: economic growth in socialist Yugoslavia†

Relative to western Europe, we know very little about the determinants of economic growth at the regional level within socialist Europe. This is somewhat unusual, given that socialist policy-makers have put great emphasis on equitable regional development. This article analyses the regional patterns of growth and divergence in socialist Yugoslavia. New estimates of output and inputs are constructed, and an analysis of output growth, factor accumulation, structural modernization, and productivity is provided. Two novel empirical findings are uncovered. The first is that the sources of growth across the regions were fundamentally different. Total factor productivity was a much more important source of growth in the richer regions than it was in the poorer ones. The second finding is that the source of the regional income divergence lies in the failure of the less developed regions to converge towards the employment rates and total factor productivities of the more developed regions. These failures are interpreted, at least partially, as symptoms of the governing objective and the soft budget constraint of the labour-managed firms that operated in Yugoslavia. It is argued that Yugoslavia's development model was less suited to the pre-conditions that prevailed in the less developed parts of the country.     

The last Yugoslavs: Ethnic diversity and national identity

Nation-building is often proposed as a device for integration in ethnically divided societies. The determinants of national sentiment, however, remain imperfectly understood. This paper analyses the role of interethnic contact in the process of nation formation within multiethnic Yugoslavia, just before its disintegration in 1991. Using a variety of data sources and empirical strategies, I find that interethnic contact stimulated the formation of the Yugoslav nation. I argue that ethnic intermarriage is the key mechanism through which ethnic diversity influenced the adoption of a shared Yugoslav identity. These results illustrate the powerful effect that interethnic contact can have in reducing ethnic division even in a tense ethnic environment on the verge of conflict, like that of Yugoslavia.     

Financial repression and real output: Macroeconometric evidence from Yugoslavia

This paper examines the effects of financial repression on macroeconomic performance in Yugoslavia. Financial disintermediation is examined in detail. A vector autoregression analysis of monthly macroeconomic data for 1978–1986, a period of fairly steady policies, is estimated. In a robust result, the degree of central bank selective rediscounting of credit is shown to influence output negatively, which may be interpreted as indicating that interventions in financial markets are serving to “back losers” and impose other costs on the Yugoslav economy. The economy is Also found to be highly inelastic in output and employment. The findings lend insights into the causes and effects of the recent surge in inflation.     

The United Nations and ethnic conflicts

The involvement of the United Nations in ethnic conflicts is relatively new, made possible only by the end of the Cold War gridlock that enveloped the Security Council. Scholars are searching this recent history for theoretical insights to guide future decision making, but the empirical evidence—examined here in Cyprus, former Yugoslavia, and Rwanda/Burundi—suggests caution before making large theoretical judgments. The evidence does suggest that to be successful in ethnic conflicts, the United Nations requires strong and consistent American leadership, a leadership which in some cases will contradict the UN's dominant culture of negotiation and compromise.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article: The Economics of Uncertainty, by Karl Henrik Borch . Unity or Poverty ? The Economics Of Pan-Africanism, by Reginald H. Green and Ann Seidman . Legal Aspects of Foreign Investment in the European Economic Community by W. H. Balekjan . Yugoslavia, by F. E. Ian Hamilton ,     

The Yugoslav economy viewed through the theory of labor management

In the days of Marx, the major problem was the liberation of the working man from the capitalist. The contribution of Yugoslavia to socialism is the liberation of the working man from the state. But socialist labor-management cannot assume the position of the leading world system, which belongs to it, until it liberates the working man from himself as a collective capitalist.     

Exchange rates as nominal anchors

Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchors. - This paper discusses the use of nominal exchange rates as nominal anchors in stabilization programs. The first part deals with the dynamics of inflation in highly indexed economies. It is shown that credible exchange rate anchors will reduce the degree of inflationary inertia. However, if some residual inertia is maintained in some contracts, real exchange rate overvaluation will result. Data from Chile, Mexico and Yugoslavia are used to test the implications of the model. The second part deals with the long run, and uses a 56 countries data set to investigate whether fixed exchange rates have been associated with greater financial discipline.     

Workers’ self-management and social property: A participatory approach to black economic development

Conclusion and Implications Self-management provides a context and a process for economic growth, political development, and institution building. Since its use as a developmental model does not presuppose unalterable fealty to any dogmatical theory, it can be easily modulated and revised to fit the particular needs and circumstances of the black community. For example, the concept of workers’ management and social property is a derivation of Marxian theory of social and economic organization. Moreover, Yugoslavia, the only sociopolitical system in which the theory of labor-managed market socialism has been reduced to action through system-wide implementation, is, unlike the U.S. economy or the black community’s subeconomy, a decentralized socialist state. 29 But the conceptual lineage or previous use of the idea does not preclude its revision for use by groups with different socio-historical experiences and contemporary conditions.     

Analysis of the social policy parameters by forecasting indicators of social sector financing

The paper continues the publication started in our journal (2007, no. 1) of the forecasts made in the integrated system “Population, Incomes, Consumption” developed by the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The forecasts cover indicators of social sector financing at different level: macro-level, by population groups, and by family type. The paper shows that expansion of the statistical base and its updating after the population census in 2002 have lead toserious changes in the forecast of the major social policy parameters. Their detailed analysis and conclusions are presented.     

A few analyses of China's population

A summary and brief analysis of the main results of the 1982 census of China are presented. Topics covered include the overall decrease in the rate of population growth, changes in spatial distribution and increases in population density, the successful control of urban population growth, the higher rate of growth of the minority populations, and improvements in education and literacy.     

East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends

Countries throughout the world are experiencing changes in their population age structure, but they are particularly rapid in East Asia. During the last part of the 20th Century the region benefited from an increased concentration of population in the working ages. Population aging is now the increasing rapidly with potentially adverse economic effects. The evidence presented here shows that population aging can lead to a second demographic dividend because population aging may lead to rapid capital accumulation. This appears to have occurred in East Asia because public support systems for the elderly are smaller and because family support systems are in decline.     

Energy consumption by Russia’s population and service industry in the context of global trends

This paper analyzes energy consumption by population and service industry in developed countries and Russia in 1990–2005. The main global trends in energy consumption by population and service industry are shown. The compliance of Russia’s energy consumption figures to these trends is determined. The results of predictive estimates of the dependence of per capita energy consumption by population and service industry on the level of economic development are presented.     

Genuine progress indicator as an adequate macroeconomic indicator of public welfare

The article shows the benefits of a genuine progress indicator as an adequate indicator of economic, social, and environmental welfare of the population and considers the components of this indicator. For the first time, statistical and analytical results of the research of the value of the genuine progress indicator of Ukraine in 2000–2007 are presented. Its dynamics is compared with changes in the gross domestic product (GDP). Specific conclusions are made about the level of social welfare and social progress.     

Forecasting the dynamics of per capita meat consumption by the population of Russia under conditions of inflation

The paper describes the instruments developed by the author for imitation modeling of per capita meat and meat product consumption by the population of Russia taking into consideration the exogenously assigned trends of change in per capita cash incomes, consumer prices, and inflation rates. The results of prediction calculations for the period of 2010–2012 using the developed instruments are presented. The consequences of implementing the forecasts of the socioeconomic development of Russia until 2012 are analyzed on their basis.     

Forecasting indicators of personal income differences

Forecasting of the distribution and differentiation parameters of personal cash income is discussed. Methods for forecasting parameters of population distribution by per capita income are proposed, and these parameters are correlated to predicted macroeconomic indices. Diagrams of transition to the Lorenz curve are presented. The dependence of income spread indices on parameters of income distribution of the population is established. Additional, more informative and accurate, income spread indices are proposed.     

陕西省商业银行网点分布的时空演化及影响因素研究

基于中国银保监会公开披露的陕西省商业银行网点数据,通过空间自相关、多元线性回归等方法,从市级、县级层面分析2000、2010、2020年末商业银行网点分布在陕西省的时空演化特征及影响因素。结果表明：自2000年开始,陕西省商业银行网点分布呈现出显著的全局空间自相关;经过近20年的发展,逐渐呈现出以西安市为地区绝对核心,各地级市辖区为区域次中心的空间分布格局;地区人口规模、规模以上企业数量以及城区面积是影响商业银行网点布局的最显著因素。据此提出相关建议：商业银行应保持在地区中心设置网点;适当减少在人口规模较小、规模以上企业数量较少、城区面积较小的区域设置网点;商业银行应在服务实体经济的同时,找到不同时期内影响自身布局的关键因素,以应对市场化挑战。     

Accommodating a growing population in Javanese agriculture

An examination of how the island of Java, Indonesia, has accommodated population growth over the past 150 years by a process of agricultural development is presented. A brief review of the literature on the relationship between agricultural development and population growth is first provided. Next, the available data on land area, cultivated area, agricultural production, and employment in Java over the past century are reviewed. The relationship between agricultural development and population growth in Java is then analyzed in terms of the concepts and processes discussed in the theoretical literature.     

转型中的社会养老保险制度:改革与发展

借鉴和吸取国外社会养老保险制度改革的经验与教训,充分考虑中国国情,结合中国的实际情况,探讨在经济转型和人口老龄化背景下,针对中国现行养老保险制度中突出的矛盾和问题,改革和完善我国社会养老保险制度。     

基于云南震害矩阵的群体建筑评价及避震人口预测——以昆明市阳宗海区域抗震专项规划为例

在云南震害矩阵的基础上，结合地理信息系统（GIS）数据分析，以昆明市阳宗海区域抗震专项规划为例，给出群体建筑评价的简易模型，建立避震人口与震害矩阵的关系，对阳宗海区域的群体建筑进行评价，同时对避震人口进行预测，为政府部门决策提供科学参考