Mossin's Theorem Given Random Initial Wealth

The purpose of this article is to reexamine Mossin's Theorem under random initial wealth. Conditions necessary and sufficient for Mossin's Theorem depend on the stochastic dependence between risks. The correlation coefficient, however, is not an adequate measure of stochastic dependence in the general expected‐utility model, and so other notions of dependence are used to investigate Mossin's Theorem. The inadequacy of the correlation coefficient is illustrated with two counterexamples. Then, using notions of positive and negative dependence measures, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a generalized Mossin Theorem to hold. In addition, a generalized Mossin Theorem is interpreted using the notion of a mean preserving spread made popular by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) . Given a fair premium and dependent stochastic conditions, we show that an individual can obtain a final wealth distribution with less weight in its tails by selecting less than or more than full insurance.     

Selection Bias and Auditing Policies for Insurance Claims

Selection bias results from a discrepancy between the range of estimation of a statistical model and its range of application. This is the case for fraud risk models, which are estimated on audited claims but applied on incoming claims in the design of auditing strategies. Now audited claims are a minority within the parent sample since they are chosen after a severe selection performed by claims adjusters. This article presents a statistical approach that counteracts selection bias without using a random auditing strategy. A two‐equation model on audit and fraud (a bivariate probit model with censoring) is estimated on a sample of claims where the experts are left free to take the audit decision. The expected overestimation of fraud risk derived from a single‐equation model is corrected. Results are close to those obtained with a random auditing strategy, at the expense of some instability with respect to the regression components set. Then we compare auditing policies derived from the different approaches.     

Equilibrium Pricing of General Insurance Policies

Abstract

A model is developed for determining the price of general insurance policies in a competitive, noncooperative market. This model extends previous single-optimizer pricing models by supposing that each participant chooses an optimal pricing strategy. Specifically, prices are determined by finding a Nash equilibrium of an N-player differential game. In the game, a demand law describes the relationship between policy sales and premium, and each insurer aims to maximize its (expected) utility of wealth at the end of the planning horizon. Two features of the model are investigated in detail: the effect of limited total demand for policies, and the uncertainty in the calculation of the breakeven (or cost price) of an insurance policy.

It is found that if the demand for policies is unlimited, then the equilibrium pricing strategy is identical for all insurers, and it can be found analytically for particular model parameterizations. However, if the demand for policies is limited, then, for entrants to a new line of business, there are additional asymmetric Nash equilibria with insurers alternating between maximal and minimal selling. Consequently it is proposed that the actuarial cycle is a result of price competition, limited demand, and entry of new insurers into the market. If the breakeven premium is highly volatile, then the symmetric equilibrium premium loading tends to a constant, and it is suggested that this will dampen the oscillatory pricing of new entrants.     

Voluntary Termination of Life Insurance Policies

Abstract

In this paper, one error-correction model (ECM) that is able to avoid the problem of producing noise within traditional multiple cointegration vectors has been employed to explore the dynamics of surrender behavior. The evidence shows that both the emergency fund hypothesis and interest rate hypothesis are sustained in the short run as well as in the long run. A unique cointegration relationship within the surrender dynamics has been validated. In addition, a new hypothesis test that stresses the competition for the withdrawal of life insurance policy cash values has also been conducted. Such a crowding-out effect between policy loans and policy surrenders might be attributed to the motivation that keeps a life policy in force, the existence of surrender charges, and the automatic premium loan provision.     

Life Insurance Policies with Statistical Heterogeneous Population

In the paper we consider an endowment insurance contract with a twelve months maturation time. Using the majorization order and Schur-convex functions we derive upper and lower bounds of the premium, the death and survival benefits for a hetrogeneous population of insureds. The bounds are obtained for the exponential, Balducci, and linear approximations.     

关于建立中国农业保险政策支持体系的思考

农业是国民经济的基础性产业,也是带有风险性的弱质产业,它发展的优劣直接制约着国民经济的发展。中国是农业灾害发生最为严重的国家之一,而农业保险是农业风险重要的控制方式,农业保险作为一项风险转嫁、损失分摊的经济补偿制度,己成为国际上主要的非价格农业保护工具之一,对保证农业生产的持续稳定发展有着十分重要的意义。面对国内外农业保险发展的新形势,如何开展政策性农业保险工作,建立一套具有较高保障能力和运转效率的农业保险支持体系,是摆在政府面前的一项重要的任务。     

日本养老保险的税收政策及启示

目前,我国的养老保险制度存在一定的缺陷:基本养老保险覆盖面窄,替代率过高;企业年金和个人储蓄性养老保险发展缓慢。本文介绍了日本运用税收政策促进养老保险制度发展的做法,并从中得出了一些可供我国借鉴的经验:基本养老保险税收政策暂不宜进行调整;应尽快制定企业年金的相关税收政策;对个人储蓄性养老保险进行税收扶持。     

Generalized Frasier Claim Rates Under Survivorship Life Insurance Policies

Abstract

This paper proposes two modifications to the well-known Frasier formula, often used in the pricing, design, and valuation of survivorship life insurance policies: (1) allowing lapse rates to change after the first death and (2) reflecting simultaneous exposure to the same hazards, such as infectious diseases and common accidents, and possibly higher mortality among survivors. The purpose is to improve the pricing and valuation of survivorship life insurance. The paper will be of interest to actuaries doing pricing, GAAP valuation, self-support certifications, and to illustration actuaries. The results are important to reinsurers and direct writers. The paper includes numerical examples and compares the claim rates with and without the suggested modifications. The modified survivorship claim rates are considerably higher than those developed using pure Frasier, emphasizing the importance of learning to use these or similar methods.     

中国农民工养老保险政策对比分析

农民工养老保险问题是当前经济、社会发展中所必须面对的一个焦点问题。虽然当前出台了一些相关的地方政策,但关于如何解决农民工养老保险并未在政策层面和学术研究上达成共识,而要进一步探讨解决思路,则必须对当前的政策进行对比分析。本文正是对当前针对农民工养老保险的国家相关政策、各地区的不同政策加以对比分析,对当前学术界的研究成果进行梳理,在此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。     

The Trade-Off between Insurance and Incentives in Differentiated Unemployment Policies

In this paper, I revisit the central trade-off between insurance and incentives in the design of unemployment insurance policies. The generosity of unemployment insurance benefits differs not only across countries, but also across workers within countries. After illustrating some important dimensions of heterogeneity in a cross-country analysis, I extend the standard Baily–Chetty formula to identify the key empirical moments and elasticities required to evaluate the differentiated unemployment policy within a country. I also review some prior work and aim to provide guidance for future work trying to inform the design of unemployment policies.     

农业保险保费补贴政策的减贫效应及其区域异质性

利用FGT贫困指数作为被解释变量,结合我国30个省份的2010-2018年农业保险保费财政补贴数据,构建面板分位数回归模型检验我国对农业保险保费财政补贴的减贫效应的异质性,并分东、中和西部进行了稳健性检验.研究表明,在经济发展水平低的地区,农业保险保费财政补贴具有显著的减贫效应,但经济发展水平不同的地区存在减贫效应的区域异质性:随着贫困程度加深(分位点增高),农业保险保费补贴的扶贫效应先增加后降低.农业保险保费财政补贴每提高1％,FGT贫困指数下降的范围为0.045％～0.15％.     

Optimal Bank Reorganization Policies and the Pricing of Federal Deposit Insurance

Optimal dynamic regulatory policies for closing ailing banks and for deposit insurance premia are derived as functions of the rate of flow of bank deposits, and interest rate on deposits, the economy's risk-free interest rate, and the regulators' bank audit/administration costs. Under competitive conditions, the threshold assets-to-deposits ratio below which a bank should be optimally closed is shown to be greater than or equal to one. Optimal deposit insurance premia and probabilities of bank closure are shown to be nondecreasing in the bank's risk on investment and nonincreasing in the bank's current assets-to-deposits ratio.     

论完善我国养老保险制度的政策措施

当前我国的养老保险制度面临着如下问题:制度设计不合理;个人账户"空账";养老保险替代率高;征缴基金下降,养老保险基金供款不足;统筹层次低且条块分割,养老保险基金调剂功能不强;养老保险地区差异明显.完善养老保险制度的措施为:建立与完善多元化养老保险制度;建立社保征缴部门与税务、工商等部门的定期沟通及资料交流制度;个人账户实行弹性缴费率并适当降低个人账户的发放标准;基金管理由混账改为分账;解决养老保险隐性债务;完善社会统筹支持的基本养老保险待遇;完善机关事业单位养老保险制度.     

我国内地涉及台港澳地区的社会保险法规政策研究

中国内地与台港澳基于经贸合作已经形成一个广大的经济地域,但是一个成熟的经济地域离不开社会政策的配合与协调。大陆作为第二大世界经济体,已经颁行了许多涉及台港澳地区的社会保险法规政策,对经济地域的形成发挥了积极作用。本文通过梳理和分析大陆的相关法规政策,从加强顶层设计、制定配套法规等方面提出了完善我国内地涉及台港澳地区社会保险法规政策的具体建议。     

Pareto-Optimal Insurance Policies in the Models with a Premium Based on the Actuarial Value

This article analyzes the problem of designing Pareto‐optimal insurance policies when both the insurer and the insured are risk averse and the premium is calculated as a function of the actuarial value of the insurer's risk. Two models are considered: in the first, the set of admissible policies is constrained by a given size of the premium; in the second, the premium size is not constrained so that it varies with the actuarial value of a policy chosen by the agents. For both cases a characterization of the Pareto‐optimal policies is derived. The corresponding optimality equations for the Pareto‐optimal policies are obtained and compared with the results on the classical risk exchange model.     

美国责任保单中他保条款冲突的协调

为了在发生保险竞合时恰当分配责任,美国的责任保单中大都包括他保条款,但这些他保条款经常相互冲突,而美国法院大都使用合同解释方法来解决问题,其结果并不理想。最近几年。其开始采用一种新方法去处理此问题。依据该方法,承担损失的首要责任将由最有可能评估其所承担风险的保险人承担。     

需求异质性视角下的科技保险财政补贴政策优化

科技保险是科技创新支持体系的关键组成部分。试点十余年来,尽管政府一直对科技保险实行高比例的财政补贴政策,但至今市场需求一直低迷。根本原因在于,现行同质化的财政补贴政策未能契合科技保险需求的异质性特征,难以对科技保险需求形成有效激励。据此,本文在分析科技保险补贴现状和问题的基础上,对科技保险需求异质性问题进行了理论阐述,指出科技保险需求的异质性归根结底来源于高技术行业的异质性。随后,通过建立行业创新风险衡量指标体系,以广东省为例对六大高技术行业的创新风险进行了定量研究,并以此提出了基于行业异质性和险种分类的二维科技保险分类补贴方案。     

保险中介机构发展对保险从业人员需求的影响

保险专业中介机构近年来发展速度较快,发展潜力较大,并随之带来对从业人员需求的相应变化,只有明确其发展对人才需求的影响,引导大量优秀人才加入这一行业,才能充分发挥保险专业中介机构的重要作用。