国际储备体系的分散化

在第二次世界大战后的布雷顿森林会议上,确立了以美元为中心的国际货币体系,从此,美元作为黄金的“替代物”取得了国际货币的垄断地位。1971年美国宣布美元与黄金脱勾以后,布雷顿森林体系开始崩溃,美元在国际储备资产中的比例开始下降。1973年西方各国普遍实行“浮动汇率”以后,进一步促进了美元储备下降的趋势,到1979年底,美元在各国外汇储备中只占到65.1的比例。同期,欧     

美元的"免费午餐"还能持续多久?

国际货币体系历经金本位、布雷顿森林体系和牙买加协议后的浮动汇率体系, 美元的优势地位逐步增强。布雷顿森林体系确立了美元的国际流通货币地位,但在此体系下美国在获得铸币利差的同时,其国内货币政策要受到比其他国家更加严格的约束。随后,由于长期巨额的国际收支逆差和黄金储备的急剧减少,布雷顿森林体系在1971年走到了尽头,然而美元仍保持了其世界性货币的地位,实际上自1971年以来外国持有的美元数额还开始了戏剧性的增长。自浮动汇率实行以来,美国更是频繁地利用美元汇率来维护其超强的实力。     

美元储备地位的深层次矛盾

<正>美元在国际货币体系中的特殊地位一直以来受到各界广泛的关注。纵观国际货币体系演进历史,美元的国际货币角色跨越了两次世界大战时期、布雷顿森林体系以及浮动汇率时期。尤其是1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,在缺乏全球性汇兑制度安排的支持下,美元仍保持主导地位。这一事实的形成有其必然性,也带有自身的矛盾。     

人民币与东亚各经济体货币相关性研究北大核心SSCI

金融危机使美元作为单一国际货币的弊端逐渐显现了出来。实体经济寻求稳定货币作为定价基准和结算媒介的努力,使得一直以来呈现美元化倾向的东亚地区开始出现松动。人民币开始受到世界的关注。本文从考察东亚区域中各货币汇率的相关性入手,分析人民币国际化启动前后区域货币汇率运行的情况,以评估人民币成为区域核心货币的可能性。结论显示:美元在2009年之前对于东亚各经济体货币确实占据主导地位,但是在2009年之后这一地位逐渐有被人民币取代的趋势,"美元板块"的势力范围也逐渐被"人民币板块"所赶超。本文亦对区域货币金融合作提出相关的政策建议。     

人民币与东亚各经济体货币相关性研究

金融危机使美元作为单一国际货币的弊端逐渐显现了出来.实体经济寻求稳定货币作为定价基准和结算媒介的努力,使得一直以来呈现美元化倾向的东亚地区开始出现松动.人民币开始受到世界的关注.本文从考察东亚区域中各货币汇率的相关性入手,分析人民币国际化启动前后区域货币汇率运行的情况,以评估人民币成为区域核心货币的可能性.结论显示:美元在2009年之前对于东亚各经济体货币确实占据主导地位,但是在2009年之后这一地位逐渐有被人民币取代的趋势,“美元板块”的势力范围也逐渐被“人民币板块”所赶超.本文亦对区域货币金融合作提出相关的政策建议.     

美元未来仍会占据主导地位

美元仍是国际主导货币 美元作为全球主要储备货币,其地位受次贷风暴的影响正进一步削弱。次贷危机全面爆发前的2007年的第二季度,美元资产占全球外汇储备的65％,到今年一季度这一比例已经下降到63％,为1996年以来的最低水平。而欧元占全球外汇储备的比例提高到了26．8％,刷新历史最高纪录;英镑资产占外汇储备的比例为4．7％,日元资产构成比例为3．1％,变化均不大。     

浅析黄金功能转化对当今货币的影响

在印将过去的2010年里,全球经济继续动荡不安,很多国家的经济还是没有从08年次贷危机的阴影中走出来.自从牙买加体系规定黄金实行非货币化以来,美元便脱离了黄金的束缚,很多依靠美元作为国际储备货币的国家受到了严重的打击.此时,很多国家开始抛弃美元,转而囤积黄金.因此,要改变当今货币体系的弊端,努力构建全球经济一体化的货币体系成为重中之重.     

"特里芬悖论"与美元贬值

"特里芬悖论" 从1971年美国政府宣布美元与黄金固定价格脱钩的"尼克松震荡"开始,国际货币体系的市场化时代也就到来了.在美国强大的经济实力支持下,美元既作为国别性货币又作为国际性货币,书写了一段让世界他国既恨又爱极为矛盾的国际货币历史.     

经济全球化背景下的交易货币选择

本文从国际金融货币历史的演变:金本位制从作为国际的主导货币到崩溃,结合人在经济生活中利己性的本质、最新的科技革命以及未知市场的发掘三个方面阐述信用货币而非商品货币作为国际货币选择的必然性,结合世界金融危机以来各国对美元外汇储备的风险担忧,分析美元作为国际主要结算货币和储备货币的选择依据及存在的风险考虑。     

全球“去美元化”进程加速 未来货币体系或迈向多元化

<正>今年以来,多个国家和地区宣布将制定旨在减少对美元依赖的政策。同时,随着新兴经济体、中东产油国乃至欧洲纷纷尝试创新跨境支付结算机制、签署双边货币协议以及推动外汇储备多元化,全球“去美元化”不断加速,未来国际货币体系或迈向多元化。多国减持美元储备近年来,在全球“去美元化”的浪潮之下,全球央行美元储备占比开始快速下降。2022年,全球减持美债规模超过4500亿美元。国际货币基金组织数据显示,     

Did China Effectively Manage Its Foreign Exchange Reserves? Revisiting the Currency Composition Change

To estimate the currency composition of China’s foreign exchange reserves and assess its effectiveness of management, the constrained least square method and variance sensitive analysis are utilized, respectively. Based on portfolio accounting identities, the change of foreign exchange reserves was decomposed into the net purchase change and the non-purchase change. The newly constructed non-purchase change was used to estimate the latent currency composition. Empirical results show that by the end of 2015Q1, China held about 63.6% of its reserves in the U.S. dollar, 19.6% in the euro, 3.09% in the Japanese yen, 4.89% in the pound sterling, 2.22% in the Canadian dollar, 2.03% in the Australian dollar, and 0.09% in the Swiss franc. Although the currency composition kept relatively stable, more attention had been paid to the emerging international currencies. China decreased the U.S. dollar share during the subprime crisis, while resorted to the portfolio rebalance strategy since 2011. The euro share and the pound sterling share declined during the European sovereign debt crisis. The first derivative of the U.S. dollar was positive while those of other currencies were negative before 2014Q3, and vice versa after 2014Q4. In general, the currency composition management of China’s foreign exchange reserves was effective.     

从中美经济相互依存看我国高额外汇储备管理

美债危机爆发后,中国作为美国在海外最大的债券持有者仍然不得不继续增持美债,一方面是由于人民币汇率长期与美元挂钩,国际贸易和金融交易主要以美元结算以及我国出口导向型经济增长方式短期内无法改变均导致外汇储备被动积累,另一方面更是因为一旦我国大规模减持美元资产,将引起全球外汇市场对美元的恐慌性抛售,并最终危及我国在美金融资产安全。美债危机表明我国经济对美国高度依赖,并凸显了经济增长方式转变以及对高额外汇储备有效管理的重要性与紧迫性。     

我国外汇储备运用方式探析

截至2009年6月末,我国外汇储备突破2万亿美元,随着其近年来的快速增长,关于外汇储备运用的争论也日益激烈。本文通过分析我国外汇储备的性质,逐一研究现有各种方案的可行性,最后提出合理的运用建议,认为投资美元债券仍是当前主要的主要运用方式,但长期来看应配置多元化。     

金融危机背景下外汇储备合理利用问题的探讨

截至2009年一季度末,我国外汇储备已经超过2万亿美元,在金融危机的大背景下,面对美元的大幅贬值,如何合理利用我国巨额外汇储备成为人们关注的焦点问题。本文首先论述了对外汇储备的正确认识,并讨论了高额的外汇储备对我国国民经济带来的风险,最后从合理利用外汇储备的角度提出了一系列的政策建议,认为当前应利用高额的外汇储备来建立国家物资储备和国家主权养老基金,成立国家外汇投资公司或者建立外汇平准基金等。     

Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms

This paper examines how U.S. multinational firms are affected by foreign currency movements. In light of detailed exchange rate data, we find that 29% of our sample of 935 U.S. firms with real operations in foreign countries is significantly affected by currency movements between 1990 and 2001. Results show moreover that U.S. stock returns react asymmetrically to currency movements. By introducing nonlinearity in foreign currency risk exposure, we noticeably increase the precision and the significance of exposure estimates. We demonstrate moreover that asymmetries are more pronounced towards large versus small currency fluctuations than over depreciation and appreciation cycles.     

Foreign Exchange Risk,Hedging, and Tax-Motivated Outbound Income Shifting

Although outbound income shifting to low-tax jurisdictions provides tax savings, it is often accompanied by nontax costs. In this study, I examine whether foreign exchange (FX) risk constrains tax-motivated outbound income shifting by U.S. multinational corporations. My findings indicate that exposure to greater currency volatility is associated with less outbound income shifting, and this effect is stronger for firms with foreign affiliates using foreign functional currencies. I also investigate whether hedging facilitates outbound income shifting. Consistent with hedging lowering costs associated with exchange rate volatility, I find that U.S. firms that use more currency derivatives tend to shift more income to low-tax foreign jurisdictions. Overall, these findings suggest that FX risk is an important cost of outbound income shifting.     

Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency

The U.S. dollar is the central reference currency for international trade pricing and the main invoicing currency for primary commodities. This paper links these two observations within a stylized theoretical framework, and shows how to obtain a quantitative estimate of the gain to the U.S. economy when the dollar is a reference currency. With dollar invoicing of primary commodities, U.S. firms bear less exchange rate risk than foreign firms. This asymmetry leads to a dollar standard in international goods pricing. We then derive a simple analytical formula to calculate the gains and find that they are extremely small.     

Taiwan's Foreign Exchange Market—Volatile but Still Efficient?

This paper investigates the importance of return heterogeneity and volatility for the foreign exchange rate on the New Taiwan (NT) dollar in terms of the U. S. dollar. We describe the price behavior of the foreign exchange market through the Power GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The time knots of market events are found to have deep impacts on the behavior of both market agents and the intraday characteristics of the price process. Evidence also reveals that Taiwan's foreign exchange market is semi-strong efficient.     

基于风险选择与投资收益的外汇储备币种结构研究

随着外汇储备规模的不断增加,国家外汇储备投资的风险偏好亦会发生相应的变化。借鉴 J. H.Makin(1971)的方法,构建外汇储备币种结构配置理论模型,讨论在效用最大化的情况下,储备资产投资如何在安全性、流动性和盈利性三原则间进行权衡。假设外汇储备仅投资于美元和欧元两种币种资产,选取2000年初~2014年第三季度的10年期美国国债和欧元区公债季度数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰检验等方法进行的实证研究发现：储备货币在外汇储备中的比重与储备货币收益率及其三阶矩显著正相关,国家外汇储备投资总体而言是风险规避型的。     

U.S. Money Supply and China’s Business Cycles

This article models the U.S. dollar as a world currency in a global DSGE framework, and investigates the spillover effects of the U.S. money supply shock on China’s economy. Exchange rate targeting and capital controls in the context of dollar hegemony are investigated. Given a positive U.S. money supply shock, both the inflation and real GDP of China will be below their steady-state levels in the medium term; while for the U.S. there is no inflation pressure. The spillover of liquidity effect exists. Cost-push effects and relative price effects are employed to discuss the transmission mechanism. Under the U.S. money supply shock, a fully liberalizing reform with no capital controls and a floating exchange rate of Renminbi is not the best reform for China.