贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

贸易摩擦、宏观经济波动与经济开放程度的选择

本文构建一个包含关税冲击以及外汇风险溢价的两国开放经济DSGE模型,创新地揭示了关税冲击造成实际汇率波动的“直接效应”与“间接效应”,刻画了关税变动、贸易条件与实际汇率之间的动态关系与作用机制。我们深入分析了不同经济开放程度下贸易摩擦造成的宏观经济波动以及经济福利损失。模拟结果表明,在一定贸易开放程度下,外国加收关税一方面会导致本国贸易条件恶化,引发出口及产出下降;另一方面会导致本国汇率贬值,引发出口及产出增长。关税冲击发生后短期中汇率贬值效应占优,本国产出会出现小幅上升,随后贸易条件恶化效应逐步显现,产出持续下降。福利分析结果表明,本国适度提升贸易开放度,虽然经济福利损失会小幅上升,但福利损失增加幅度小于外国,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对优势;如果本国过度提高贸易开放度,则会导致本国福利损失大幅增加,并且大于外国福利损失增幅,会在贸易摩擦竞争中形成相对劣势。因此,应适度逐步有序地提升贸易开放度。此外,本国适度推进资本账户开放的政策能够改善贸易条件,促进本国经济增长。     

美国出口管制政策、对华出口管制及其发展趋势研判

出口管制政策是美国为保障国家安全、实现外交政策所采取的经济手段之一。美国出口管制政策的原则有国家安全原则、外交政策原则和短缺物质原则等,出口管制政策的措施主要有许可证审批、商品管制清单和国别分类组等内容。影响美国对华出口管制政策未来发展的因素众多,如中国经济崛起、台海局势及美国对华巨额贸易逆差等,短期内美国不太可能放松直至取消对华出口管制政策。美国对华出口管制政策既损害了美国自身经济贸易的发展,也损害了中国经济贸易的发展,其实质是一种经济帝国主义的表现。     

Effect of Cross-Border E-Business Policy on the Export Trade of an Emerging Market: A Dynamic Study of Institutional Support to Cross-Border E-Business at Chinese Pilot Cities

Policies to offer institutional support to cross-border E-business are processed in the development of export at emerging markets. This research estimates the effect of institutional support to cross-border E-business on export trade in an emerging market by a difference-in-difference model. It is found that the institutional support to cross-border E-business at the pilot cities had a positive effect on export trade. Further, a decision tree of predictions to export is developed, based on the cross-border E-business policy and regional economic factors shown to have effect on export, and the complex network of interconnections across the cities in different conditions is revealed. The estimation of probability for export increase based on the effect of cross-border E-business policy is further performed by Bayesian model. This research can be helpful to policy makers and business administrators in understanding the effect of cross-border E-business policies on export at emerging markets.     

论出口退税政策的有效性及调整空间

在现阶段宏观经济背景下出口退税政策可以作为调节对外贸易、缓解人民币升值压力的重要的宏观调控手段,本文肯定了前期出口退税政策调整所发挥的作用,用实证分析的方法证明了出口退税与对外贸易发展的正相关性,分析并初步测算了退税率的调整空间及对人民币升值压力的缓解程度。     

经济政策不确定性如何影响企业出口决策？——基于出口频率的视角

出口频率作为出口决策的重要一环,是企业出口扩张的新边际,也是出口变化的“晴雨表”。本文在随机存货模型的基础上,考察了经济政策不确定性对企业出口频率的影响及其传导渠道,并采用2000-2006年工业企业数据库与海关数据库的匹配数据进行实证检验,结果发现:目的国经济政策不确定性增加会显著降低企业出口频率,且这一影响存在部分惯性效应;经济政策不确定性通过贸易成本、存货成本和市场需求波动共同影响企业出口频率的中介效应十分显著,其中贸易成本是最重要的传导渠道,占比达到19%以上;如果进一步考虑目的国、产品和企业异质性,会发现出口目的国经济发展水平较高、出口产品为中间品和消费品的企业,其出口频率受经济政策不确定性的影响较小。因此,政府和企业应高度关注出口频率的变化趋势,合理应对经济政策不确定性对出口决策的外部冲击。     

提高出口退税能够“稳就业”和“稳外贸”吗?

近年来,全球贸易保护主义抬头加剧了各国之间的贸易摩擦。本文以中美贸易为例,探讨中国出口退税政策在稳就业、稳外贸以及应对贸易摩擦中的作用机制。首先基于1994-2020年季度数据发现:中国就业的波动较平稳;净出口则呈现高波动特征;中国就业和净出口呈现弱顺周期。这些周期特征与其他国家存在显著差异。其次构建了一个含有不完全金融市场和价格不完全传递的对称两国开放经济DSGE模型,数值模拟发现:在本国出口退税冲击和它国技术冲击下,模型能够较好地拟合中国就业和净出口的周期特征,其中财富效应和由贸易条件变化引起的支出转移效应是主要的内在传导机制。借助模型对中美贸易摩擦的反事实实验发现:中国单方面提高1%出口退税时,中国就业增长0.05%,净出口增长0.28%,呈现较强持续性,提高出口退税能够稳就业和稳外贸;当中国提高1%出口退税和美国提高1%进口关税时,中国就业增长0.03%,净出口增长0.16%,呈现较强持续性,勒纳中性不成立,此时出口退税在稳就业和稳外贸中的作用尽管有所削弱,但依然有效。     

出口信用保险对我国出口贸易影响的实证分析

出口作为拉动经济发展的＂三驾马车＂之一,在我国经济发展中起到举足轻重的作用,为了促进出口贸易的发展,我国实施了多项出口贸易鼓励政策。本文对出口退税、出口信用保险、出口贸易三个变量进行协整分析,并通过VAR模型估计以及脉冲响应函数及方差分解的实证分析,得出三个变量的相互关系;同时通过两个因素的实证比较,得出出口信用保险虽然在短期内对出口贸易的影响还不够显著,但从长期看却是显著的,并且要大于出口退税对出口贸易的影响程度,最后提出发展我国出口信用保险的政策建议。     

我国进出口快速增长的现状、趋势、问题及未来的政策选择

本文首先对改革开放以来我国外贸发展的历程及现状进行了回顾;然后对我国外贸依存度快速上升的原因进行了分析并进出口发展的长期趋势进行了预测;结论表明:我国的进出口在未来5-10年内仍将保持较快的增长态势,但是10年以后我国的进出口增长速度将逐步降低然后保持相对稳定;最后本文总结我国进出口快速上升带来的一系列问题与隐患的基础上就我国外贸政策的微调、外贸商品结构的优化以及经济发展战略的转型提出相应的政策建议。     

出口退税政策对我国外向型经济的影响

本文首先回顾了我国出口退税政策的历史沿革,并从中归纳出我国出口退税政策的基本特征。其后,从出口贸易量、出口产品结构和国家外汇储备等方面,分析了出口退税政策对我国外向型经济的影响。     

出口退税研究的宏观视野--兼谈我国出口退税政策的设计

出口退税受一国经济体制、贸易策略、外汇政策、财税制度等诸多因素的影响.只有将出口退税纳入宏观视野,综合考虑各项因素,恰当地给出口退税定位,才能使设计出的制度符合我国国情.文章分析了宏观背景下出口退税的影响因素,并对如何完善我国出口退税政策提出了自己的建议.     

我国畜产品出口中的动物福利壁垒探析

随着国际贸易格局的变动和人类生态意识的增强,在畜产品的国际贸易领域,逐渐形成了新的壁垒——动物福利壁垒。我国在动物福利方面尚处于萌芽阶段,发达国家的动物福利壁垒给我国的畜产品出口带来巨大影响,我国应充分发挥政府、行业协会、企业、消费者四个层次的作用,提高我国畜产品应对动物福利壁垒的能力,改善我国畜产品出口贸易状况。     

Demographic Dividends in the ‘South’, Ageing ‘North’, and ‘South-South’ Trade Diversification

The absence of clear convergence in incomes per capita and welfare between the North and the South, even in the face of spectacular growth rates in GDP in the emerging South, might be due to a terms of trade deterioration resulting from an expansion of production in the South which depresses the product’s price on world markets. This may originate from a “technical catch up” and also from a “demographic dividend” in the South relative to an ageing North. This article illustrates that some South-South trade diversification might mitigate the terms of trade deterioration and increase welfare gains in the South. We use a multicountry overlapping-generation general equilibrium model to simulate the magnitude of the terms of trade effect due to a demographic dividend in Turkey, and show that some trade diversification away from EU toward the South is a welfare improving policy for Turkey.     

Agricultural Tariffs or Subsidies: Which Are More Important for Developing Economies?

This article assesses the impact of the world price–depressingeffect of agricultural subsidies and border protection in OECDcountries on developing economies' exports, imports, and welfare.Developing economy exporters are likely to benefit from reductionsin such subsidies and trade barriers, whereas net importersmay lose as world prices rise. A simple partial equilibriummodel of global trade in commodities that benefit from domesticsupport or export subsidies is developed to estimate the relevantelasticities. Simulation results suggest that a 50 percent reductionin border protection will have a much larger positive impacton developing economies' exports and welfare than a 50 percentreduction in agricultural subsidies. Although there is significantheterogeneity across developing economies, the results suggestthat efforts in the Doha Round of negotiations should be directed at substantially reducing border protection.     

我国服务贸易与经济发展——基于行业面板数据的分析

本文利用1997年到2006年8个服务贸易行业的面板数据,通过分析我国服务贸易进出口与经济发展之间的关系,肯定了我国入世后服务贸易进出口快速发展的同时,发现服务贸易进口对经济发展的促进作用要大于服务贸易出口。从行业结构上还发现我国目前占我国服务贸易进出口过半的传统服务贸易行业对经济发展的促进作用偏低而相对份额较少的新兴服务贸易行业,也就是资本知识密集服务行业对经济发展的促进作用较大。另外国际文化服务贸易对我国经济发展具有较强推动作用,我国应该进一步重视国际文化服务贸易的发展,增强中华文化的国际影响力。     

Optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs

This paper examines optimal monetary policy in a two-country New Keynesian model with international trade in intermediate inputs. We derive the loss function of a cooperative monetary policymaker and find that the optimal monetary policy must target intermediate-goods price inflation rates, final-goods price inflation rates, final-goods output gaps, and relative-price gaps. We use the welfare loss under the optimal monetary policy as a benchmark to evaluate the welfare implications of three Taylor-type monetary policy rules. A main finding is that the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate-goods production is a key factor to determine which policy rule should be followed. Specifically, when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate-goods production is high, the policymaker should follow intermediate-goods PPI-based Taylor rule, whereas CPI-based Taylor rule should be followed when the degree of price stickiness at the stage of intermediate-goods production is intermediate or low.     

两岸贸易对两岸制造业工资差距的影响研究

近30年来,两岸贸易深入发展对两岸收入水平产生了重要影响,主要表现为制造业工资差距逐步缩小。从理论上分析,两岸相互的进出口会由于商品价格机制、技术进步机制的作用以及两岸货币汇率和贸易流量的变化而促使两岸工资差距缩小。统计数据检验表明,两岸贸易(主要是台湾对大陆的出口)对两岸制造业工资差距缩小存在正向影响。因此,进一步加强两岸经贸合作有利于提升两岸人们的福祉。     

The Trade Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from Nonfinancial Manufacturing Firms in Turkey

This study investigates the trade credit channel of monetary policy transmission in Turkey by using a large panel of corporate firms and includes detailed information on balance sheets and income statements of firms that regularly reported to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey during the period 1996-2008. The study suggests that the composition of external finance differs considerably across firm types based on size and export performance under tight and loose financial conditions. Small and medium-size manufacturing firms and firms with a low export share are less likely to have access to bank finance, especially in tight periods. In addition, financially constrained firms with limited access to bank finance (small, low-export-share firms) tend to substitute trade credits for bank loans more aggressively in tight periods as monetary policy tightens. The large volume of trade credit on firms' balance sheets and its positive response to contractionary monetary shocks imply that the trade credit channel might subdue the traditional credit channel of monetary transmission.     

Does better information about foreign shocks improve monetary policy?

This paper examines whether better information about foreign shocks leads to welfare-improving monetary policy using a stylised two-country New Keynesian general equilibrium model. We demonstrate that when terms of trade externality exist and national central banks have the incentives to shift terms of trade in their own favour, the equilibrium under imperfect information may be welfare superior relative to an equilibrium with perfect information. In addition, the welfare gains or losses from information sharing between central banks are found to be small for empirically plausible range of parameters for risk aversion and elasticity of labour supply.     

对人民币出口退税政策实施情况的调查——以白山市为例

出口退税政策是一项鼓励外贸发展,提升出口企业竞争力的政策。为促进中朝间的边境贸易发展,推进人民币跨境结算进程,我国出台了相关的文件,制定了在相应口岸,实施出口退税政策。本文调查了这一政策在白山市的实施情况,指出了存在的问题,并针对问题,提出对策建议,以期更好的落实政策,促进中朝间的边境外贸发展。