U.S. and Latin American stock market linkages

This paper examines to what extent the Latin American equity markets of Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico have become more integrated with the US equity market. We empirically measure integration by finding the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between each market and that in the U.S. using a DCC multivariate GARCH model. We then track how these correlations evolve over time using a smooth transition model which not only shows when greater integration first occurred but also how long it took these correlations to transition to their new levels. Our sample period stretches from December 30th, 1988 to March 26th, 2004. Results show an increase in the degree of co-movement between these countries’ equity returns and those in the U.S. although the magnitude and speed of these increases greatly varies across these four countries.     

News sentiment and stock market volatility

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study investigates the effect of news sentiment on stock market volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...     

International equity flows and country funds

This study investigates the relationships between U.S. equity flows in foreign countries and returns of closed-end country funds for emerging Latin American markets, emerging Asian markets and developed markets. The major issues addressed are (1) relationships between flows and fund returns based on two basic models—information contribution and feedback trading effects, (2) the role of volatility in these relationships, and (3) the effects of the Asian crisis. Basic findings include: (1) information contribution (past flows affect returns) and feedback trading arguments (past returns affect flows) are supported; (2) strong evidence is found for the market segmentation argument rather than the investor sentiment argument; (3) there exists strong evidence of significant volatility effects under information contribution and feedback trading; (4) the Asian crisis effects are important but limited to Asian funds.     

Price discovery in the round-the-clock U.S. Treasury market

We evaluate the efficacy of price discovery in the round-the-clock U.S. Treasury market. Using a comprehensive intraday database, we explore informational role of trades over the 24-hour day. We find that information asymmetry is generally highest in the preopen period and lowest in the postclose period. Information asymmetry in the overnight period is comparable to that in the regular trading period. However, on days with macroeconomic announcements, information asymmetry peaks shortly after the news release at 8:30. Moreover, information asymmetry is higher on Monday morning and higher immediately before than after the open of U.S. Treasury futures trading. Although volume is low after hours and trading cost is relatively high, overnight trading generates significant price discovery. Results suggest that overnight trading activity is an important part of the Treasury price discovery process.     

U.S. and Japanese macroeconomic news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific

I use a new comprehensive dataset to analyze the impact of ten U.S. and six Japanese macroeconomic announcements on stock market volatility in Japan, Hong Kong, South-Korea and Australia. A GARCH model that allows for multiplicative announcement effects and asymmetries is employed. Overnight conditional variances are significantly higher on announcement days and significantly lower on days before and after announcements, especially for U.S. news. The impact of announcements on implied volatilities, in contrast, is much weaker. Out-of-sample trading strategies that systematically buy delta-neutral straddles on announcement days generate statistically significant profits, but these disappear after transaction costs are taken into account.     

Private information flow and price discovery in the U.S. treasury market

Using intraday data, we identify the intensity of private information flow in the U.S. Treasury market. Our results show that the intensity of private information flow is highly correlated with public information shocks and higher for longer maturity bonds. More importantly, we find that bond price changes associated with high intensity of private information flow tend to be persistent, whereas those associated with low intensity of private information flow are more likely reversed. While public information and private information are the main determinants of bond price variations on days with news announcements, private information and liquidity shocks are important determinants of bond price variations on days with no significant events. Finally, we show that the depth of limit order book is inversely related to the intensity of private information flow. Nevertheless, informed dealers do not seem to use hidden orders to disguise their trading intentions.     

The role of bankers in the U.S. syndicated loan market

I construct a novel dataset of individual bankers in the U.S. syndicated loan market to analyze the impact of bankers for the largest, most transparent borrowers. Bankers exhibit time-invariant preferences for specific loan characteristics, or styles. In addition, exploiting within-borrower variation in personal relationship strength from banker turnover, I find that stronger relationships lead to significantly lower interest rates. This effect is stronger if borrowers lack a credit rating or issue less frequent and shorter horizon management reports. Relationship loans are associated with fewer bankruptcies and fewer favorable modifications in renegotiations.     

U.K. and U.S. trading of British cross-listed stocks: an intraday analysis of market integration

This article analyzes intraday patterns for U.K. and U.S. tradingof British cross-listed stocks. For each market, the intradaypatterns for these stocks closely resemble those of otherwisesimilar, non-cross listed stocks. There is a 2-hour period eachday when cross-listed stocks are traded both in New York andin London. This overlap is characterized by concentrated tradingas private information, originating in New York, gets incorporatedinto prices in both markets. Cross-border competition for orderflowtends to reduce already declining spreads in London. By contrast,New York specialists maintain     

The impact of country risk ratings on U.S. firms in large cross-border acquisitions

This study investigates the impact of country risk ratings on the wealth gains to large U.S. bidders involved in cross-border acquisitions. The findings indicate that U.S. bidders experience positive wealth gains during the merger announcements, though this is concentrated in transactions involving European targets. There are also differences in wealth gains to bidders with respect to industry classification and location of foreign targets. The country risk factors including economic, political, and financial risk ratings all play a significant role in explaining the wealth gains to bidders. Furthermore, the wealth gains are higher for the firms with acquisitions in developed countries and are significantly related to GNP growth rate.     

Media,sentiment and market performance in the long run

This paper investigates the impact of media pessimism on financial market returns and volatility in the long run. We hypothesize that media sentiment translates into investor sentiment. Based on the underreaction and overreaction hypotheses [Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny. 1998. “A Model of Investor Sentiment.” Journal of Empirical Economics 49 (3): 307–343], we suggest that media pessimism has an effect on market performance after a lag of several months. We construct a monthly media pessimism indicator by taking the ratio of the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined negative words to the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined positive words in the headline and in the lead paragraph. Our results indicate that media pessimism is associated with negative (positive) market returns 14–17 (24–25) months in advance and positive market volatilities 1–20 months in advance. Our results are statistically and economically significant. We find evidence for Granger causality of media pessimism on market performance. Our media pessimism indicator possesses additional predictive power for the Baker and Wurgler [2006. “Investor Sentiment and the Cross-section of Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1645–1680] investor sentiment index and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index.     

Venture capital funds and the public equity market

This paper considers the relationship between the public equity market and the returns to venture investing using a dataset which is derived from the records of two large limited partners who have been investing in venture capital for almost 30 years. Evidence is found to suggest that market conditions over the investment cycle, and exit conditions at the time of exit in particular, are an important determinant. This paper also investigates whether any other aspects of the venture investment process respond to events in the broader market. While general trends are evident in the venture investment cycle, only the intensity of the investment process is found to respond to events in the public equity market.     

The pricing of common exchange rate factors in the U.S. equity market

We extend Lustig et al. (Rev Financ Stud 24:3731–3777, 2011) and Brusa et al. (The International CAPM Redux, 2014) by examining if the common exchange rate factors, the dollar and carry factors, are priced in the US equity market. Our results suggest that while the carry factor has incremental pricing information relative to the US market factor, the dollar factor (or the trade-weighted exchange rate index) is redundant. Our results have important theoretical as well as practical implications. Theoretically, we suggest that financial economists take an endogenous perspective of exchange rates. Practically, we suggest that practitioners incorporate in the carry factor to measure the exposure of exchange rate risk.     

Sharing information in the credit market: Contract-level evidence from U.S. firms

We investigate the impact of lenders' information sharing on firms' performance in the credit market using rich contract-level data from a U.S. credit bureau. The staggered entry of lenders into the bureau offers a natural experiment to identify the effect of lenders' improved access to information. Consistent with the predictions of 35 and 36 and Pagano and Jappelli (1993), we find that information sharing reduces contract delinquencies and defaults, especially when firms are informationally opaque. The results also reveal that information sharing does not reduce the use of guarantees, that is, it may not loosen lending standards.     

The robustness of the Sarbanes Oxley effect on the U.S. capital market

We examine the incidence of new listings and delistings on U.S. stock exchanges and firms’ propensity to delist, as a function of general market conditions, firm fundamentals, and the costs of compliance with the Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX). We find that both general market conditions and firm fundamentals explain the delisting incidence and firms’ delisting decisions; while SOX variables are positively associated with firms’ delisting likelihood only when general market conditions are not included in the analyses. Further analyses on the population partitioned into size quintiles suggest that the passage of SOX was not associated with an increase in the likelihood of delisting for any size quintile of firms and that the implementation of SOX section 404 is positively associated with the delisting likelihood for midsized and larger firms. Our empirical evidence is useful to regulators as they consider changes in the imposition and implementation of SOX section 404.     

Investigating the dependence structure between credit default swap spreads and the U.S. financial market

Under Basel II framework, credit risk assessment is of high significance in the light of correlation risk. Correlation risk is often envisioned along with business conditions and financial market’s impact. We employ copula methodology to identify the dependence structures that may exist between market risk fundamentals and credit risk fundamentals. Considering credit derivative spreads as credit risk fundamentals and market data as market risk determinants, we describe and quantify the asymmetric link prevailing between credit risk and market risk. Credit risk is negatively linked with market price risk whereas it becomes positively linked with market volatility risk. Such patterns give rise to interesting asymmetric dependence structures between both risk sources. We are then able to balance reliably market price risk with market volatility feedback, the market trend supporting a common correlation between securities. In the light of the previous trade-off, we propose also a simple credit risk management rule.     

ADR holdings of US-based emerging market funds

What motivates investors to hold American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) rather than the underlying stock of US listed foreign firms? We analyze the investment allocation decision of actively-managed emerging market mutual fund managers. Although legal provisions are typically assumed to affect ADR and its underlying domestic shares equally, investors holding ADRs may have a higher level of legal protection as these securities are issued and traded in the US. We find that ADRs are the preferred mode of holdings if the local market of the issuer has weak investor protection, low liquidity and high transaction costs.     

Bank funds management in an efficient market

This paper discusses general principles for choosing bank assets and liabilities, for deciding on when to make a loan and what interest rate to charge, for pricing funds transfer services such as the handling of checks, for establishing compensating balance requirements, and for dealing with government regulation. The discussion assumes markets are efficient and deals first with an unregulated environment and then with policies in the face of regulatory constraints. Most of the policies which would be optimal in an unregulated environment will be optimal in the regulated environment such as in the U.S. today, because it is relatively easy to get around most of the regulations that are applied to banks by the use of non-deposit liabilities, compensating balances and negative checking accounts.     

The market value of U.S. government debt; Monthly, 1942–1980

The market value of outstanding United States Treasury debt is calculated on a monthly basis using price and par value data from the Treasury Bulletin. Separate series for Treasury Bills. Bonds, Certificates of Indebtedness, Notes and total Treasury debt are presented along with estimates of privately held Treasury debt and gross federal debt. The calculated market value series is compared to par value and an existing annual market value series.     

Stock salience and the asymmetric market effect of consumer sentiment news

We document asymmetric announcement effects of consumer sentiment news on United States stock and stock futures markets. While a negative market effect occurs upon the release of bad sentiment news, there is no market reaction for the counterpart good news. This supports the “negativity effect” hypothesis. Notably, this effect seems most likely to occur in salient stocks, which is consistent with the availability heuristic.