Redistricting reformulated: A maximum interaction/minimum separation objective

Alternative objective functions to the population centroid type commonly employed in computerized political districting algorithms are suggested and discussed. Districtings based on maximum overlap of individuals' “action spaces” or on minimum aggregate length of interpersonal separations better represent the spatio-political notion of “compactness” than do those based on centroid measures. The traditional analogy between the warehouse location problem and the optimal districting problem may thus be an inappropriate one. The proposed reformulated optimal districting problem with a spatial interaction or interpersonal separation objective may be formally stated as a quadratic integer program. The solution to the program is seen, however, to be only one of several possible “optimal” political partitionings. Regardless of the specific compactness measure chosen, separate “mean” and “modal” districtings may exist.     

An extremal and information-theoretic characterization of some interzonal transfer models

The paper develops a method of deriving gravity models from extremal principles. The prototype result yields the most popular gravity flow model characterized by an extremal principle. This principle is also for the first time elucidated as an information-theoretic one of choosing the distribution of interzonal transfers which gives least “information” (in the technical sense) for discrimination against a distribution reflecting the “facility” (reciprocal of the “difficulty”) of travel between zones.     

A new pattern of risk management: The Hyogo Framework for Action and Italian practise

On January 2005, the World Conference on Disaster Reduction adopted the “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2025: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002]. This “white paper” seeks to promote “an effective integration of disaster risk considerations into sustainable development policies, planning and programming at all levels” [UN-ISDR (United Nations, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), Disaster Risk and Sustainable Development: understanding the links between development, environment and natural hazards leading to disasters, World Summit on Sustainable Development, August–September 2002, Johannesburg, 2002. p. 1] outlining a strategic and systematic approach to reduce vulnerabilities and risks to hazards.

The current paper discusses each aspect of the Hyogo approach in relation to the Italian experience. Italy represents an interesting case because of its multiple hazard environment, and the fact that it has developed an integrated approach to risk reduction planning. Strengths and weaknesses of the “Italian way” of dealing with risk are identified, and compared with the theoretical processes suggested by the framework. Implementation of selected key actions in Italy has helped identify a series of obstacles to progress, further defining the gap that still exists between theoretical framework and actual practise.

The various activities constituting “risk management” (viz., assessment, prevention, mitigation, monitoring, early warning, preparedness) are here considered in a comprehensive framework wherein each phase is connected to the others. The paper focuses on natural hazards, which are more frequent in Italy (landslides, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, natural soil erosion). The main results include:

• A new process for dealing with risk, using the framework for guidance, is identified. We track the reasons for Italy gradually adopting this process in dealing with her vulnerabilities to natural hazards.

• Those factors that appear to interfere with an integrated approach to risk management are identified as a function of selected experiences.

• Guidelines for analysing vulnerabilities to disaster in a multi-hazard, integrated context are proposed.

Social indicators and social accounts

This paper defines “social indicators” as statistics which have two denning characteristics. They are, first, measures of direct normative interest; that is, what the economist would call measures of “welfare” and “illfare”. Most existing government statistics are not of this type, because a large proportion of existing statistics are measures of government or other institutional activity, produced as a by-product of accounting or administrative routine. The second defining characteristic of a social indicator is that it should fit into a systematic scheme of classification or aggregation which would make possible a balanced assessment of socio-economic progress or retrogression in some broad area, as well as disaggregated and detailed study of particular problems.

The work in government on social indicators was designed in part to meet the needs of Toward a Social Report, a preliminary study of the condition of American society issued by the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Superintendent of Documents, Wash. D.C. 20402; 1969). Social indicators can also fit, with other statistics, into a set of “policy accounts” or scheme of social accounting, which would relate social expenditures to the social indicator they were designed to affect. This would encourage broadened cost-benefit analysis and rational public decision-making.     

Budget decision making in large public school systems

This paper reviews and discusses results of a study of the budget process in fourteen large city school districts. Topics covered include incremental decision making, the use of “ratios” and “norms” in school budgeting, public participation in budgeting, relevant structural arrangements of local government, and the influence of boards of education on the allocation of resources. Finally, implications for the improvement of school management practices in large school districts are discussed.     

A note extending Grosskopf, Hayes, Taylor and Weber, “Anticipating the consequences of school reform: A new use of DEA”

The article cited in the current paper's title shows how to extend Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate future, as well as past and present, performance. This is accomplished by relaxing some of the constraints that reflect the presence of imposed regulations, and then re-computing the evaluations under these alternate conditions. We here extend this approach to account for “long-run” and “short-run” behaviors, and the related bodies of theory that play prominent roles in microeconomics.     

The position of agriculture in kibbutz economy—an attempt at quantitative projection

The Israeli Kibbutz Movement adopted the ideology of the “Return to Nature” and aspired to especially develop agricultural labour. But in the past decade there has been a process of “internal migration” of workers from agriculture to industrial occupations, which was compared to the “Industrial Revolution”. The ratio of agricultural workdays to other productive branches workdays decline from 62% in 1967 to 46.5% in 1974. Kibbutz' management has many reasons to evaluate its future direction, (investment in land, in education, etc.). We shall try to describe the expected developments, using the Markov chain. We shall also try to analyse the yearly interchanges and transfer from agriculture to industry and vice versa. We shall attempt to show that the process of decreasing agricultural manpower has almost ceased, and it will become stable on a fixed level of about 43%.     

The computer imperative

“The Computer Imperative” has been defined as the necessity for the administrator to specify his goals, objectives, criteria, standards, rules, etc., in very explicit and operational terms as he seeks to devise a better management system, especially if computers will be used to implement portions of the system. It is essential that educational leaders be able to tell system designers and computer technologists what they want, and to do this they must know at least the rudiments of what is technically possible. Otherwise, the administrator in some sense is at the mercy of the technologist. Studying an administrative system as essentially an information system provides a useful model. To define who originates, processes, uses, or needs information is to describe much of the actual operation of administration. In a manual system, many rules and procedures can be left undefined, and intuition and experience can substitute effectively for logical precision. As computers are programed to assume certain basic transactional functions, the administrator must bear in mind that computers do only what they are told. It is therefore critically important to be able to describe what we want. Much of the “threat” of automation can be attributed to uneasy or uncomfortable recognition of this “imperative”.     

Mathematical analysis applied to school attendance areas

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized mathematical model of pupil assignment within school districts. This model can then be used to examine various policies of student integration. Proposed bussing schemes, school location policies, educational parks, attendance boundaries, etc., can be tested for cost, travel time or other measures of efficiency. Extension to other areas of educational planning is feasible.

Mathematical programming techniques are used to assign resources (say school children) to facilities (say schools) subject to restrictions on facilities (say capacity limits) and resources (say a maximum travel time or a desirable range of school “mixtures”) so that a measure of performance, the “objective function” (say total cost or total time of travel) is optimized. The model is intended to allow examination of a wide range of objective functions and system constraints.     

Zip codes and spatial analysis: Problems and prospects

The use of zip codes for spatial, demographic, and socio-economic analysis is growing. As of August 2005, 193 articles were indexed by “zip code” in the Social Sciences Citation Index, while 386 were indexed in PubMed. All of these articles were published since 1989. While the treatment of zip codes as units of analysis varies widely in epidemiology, marketing, geography, and the socio-economic planning sciences, there are a number of common “errors” that could be avoided if analysts retained a better understanding of zip code characteristics. The purpose of this paper is to outline the problems and prospects of utilizing zip codes for spatial analysis. Issues associated with spatial contiguity, data aggregation, and boundary definitions are addressed. Results suggest that, although zip codes are not the most robust spatial units of analysis available, they retain a modest degree of utility for specialized applications. Recommendations for future research regarding zip codes and their use in socio-economic applications are offered.     

OR vice: Forecasting and classification techniques for narcotics interdiction

Counternarcotics interdiction efforts have traditionally relied on historically determined sorting criteria or “best guess” to find and classify suspected smuggling traffic. We present a more quantitative approach which incorporates customized database applications, graphics software and statistical modeling techniques to develop forecasting and classification models. Preliminary results show that statistical methodology can improve interdiction rates and reduce forecast error. The idea of predictive modeling is thus gaining support in the counterdrug community. The problem is divided into sea, air and land forecasting, only part of which will be addressed here. The maritime problem is solved using multiple regression in lieu of multivariate time series. This model predicts illegal boat counts by behavior and geographic region. We developed support software to present the forecasts and to automate the process of performing periodic model updates. During the period, the model was in use at. Coast Guard Headquarters. Because of deterrence provided by improved intervention, the vessel seizure rate declined from 1 every 36 hours to 1 every 6 months. Due in part to the success of the sea model, the maritime movement of marijuana has ceased to be a major threat. The air problem is more complex, and required us to locally design data collection and display software. Intelligence analysts are using a customized relational database application with a map overlay to perform visual pattern recognition of smuggling routes. We are solving the modeling portion of the air problem using multiple regression for regional forecasts of traffic density, and discriminant analysis to develop tactical models that classify “good guys” and “bad guys”. The air models are still under development, but we discuss some modeling considerations and preliminary results. The land problem is even more difficult, and data collection is still in progress.     

The generation of doctorates and their feedback into higher education

The dynamic effects of alternative manpower policies and programs can be “pretested” in a computer based simulation. It is generally recognized that the production of Doctorates depends to a large degree on the Doctorate-holding faculty. Because the doctorate holders are in great demand by the other sectors of the economy, a circular or a “feedback” situation exists. The problem is further complicated by the availability of developed student talent and by various socioeconomic conditions existing at different periods of time within two or three decades prior to the time a study is made.

This paper attempts to develop a conceptual and a mathematical model to study the production of Doctorates, Masters' and Baccalaureate degrees and their feedback into higher education. The model consisting of over 200 non-linear difference equations is programmed for computer simulation and validation against historical data. Currently simulation is used to describe what has happened in the past. Once this phase is accomplished, the model can be used to prescribe what will happen in the future with a fair level of confidence.     

Scaling criterion of questionnaire items

Criterion scaling is a technique for scaling questionnaire item responses so as to maximize their correlation with an external criterion. The correlation between the criterion and the scaled item is equal to the correlation ratio or η coefficient. The results of rescaling the ninth grade questionnaire of the “Equal Educational Opportunity Survey” is presented and compared to the subjective scaling used in the Report. Criterion scaling increased all correlations but the change is not substantial enough to change the interpretation of the Report.     

A fuzzy-QFD approach to supplier selection

This article suggests a new method that transfers the house of quality (HOQ) approach typical of quality function deployment (QFD) problems to the supplier selection process. To test its efficacy, the method is applied to a supplier selection process for a medium-to-large industry that manufactures complete clutch couplings.The study starts by identifying the features that the purchased product should have (internal variables “WHAT”) in order to satisfy the company's needs, then it seeks to establish the relevant supplier assessment criteria (external variables “HOW”) in order to come up with a final ranking based on the fuzzy suitability index (FSI). The whole procedure was implemented using fuzzy numbers; the application of a fuzzy algorithm allowed the company to define by means of linguistic variables the relative importance of the “WHAT”, the “HOW”–“WHAT” correlation scores, the resulting weights of the “HOW” and the impact of each potential supplier.Special attention is paid to the various subjective assessments in the HOQ process, and symmetrical triangular fuzzy numbers are suggested to capture the vagueness in people's verbal assessments.     

Efficiency characterizations in different DEA models

Relations of efficiency and non-efficiency for the same sets of DMUs (Decision Making Units) are developed for the Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) and Barker, Charnes, Cooper (BCC) ratio models, as well as DEA Additive and Multiplicative Models. Surprisingly, additively efficient DMUs are not necessarily multiplicatively efficient. A geometric “stretching” phenomenon is identified for the latter case.     

Using DEA to improve the management of congestion in Chinese industries (1981–1997)

Congestion is said to be present when increases in inputs result in output reductions. An “iron rice bowl” policy instituted in China shortly after the revolution led by Mao Tze Tung resulted in congestion that ultimately led to bankruptcy in the textile industry, and near bankruptcy in other industries. A major policy shift away from the “iron rice bowl policy” in 1990 led to massive layoffs and increasing social tensions. Were these massive layoffs necessary? Extensions of data envelopment analysis models effected in the present paper identified inefficiencies in the management of congestion. Using textiles and automobiles for illustration, it is shown how elimination of such managerial inefficiencies could have led to output augmentation without reducing employment. Thus, even in the presence of congestion, it proved to be possible to identify additional (managerial) inefficiencies that provided opportunities for improvement. In the heavily congested textile industry, these output augmentations could have been accompanied by reductions in the amounts of capital used (as an added bonus). In any case, we show how to identify and evaluate new types of efficiency—viz., the efficiency with which needed (or desired) inefficiencies are managed.     

A note on the socio-economic composition of the inner city

This paper considers the socio-economic structure of the inner area of Newcastle upon Tyne, in an attempt to contrast notions of a cycle of deprivation and the “housing trap” thesis. The use of discriminant analysis suggests that there exists no concentration of low-income groups within the inner city. The relationship between multiple deprivation and resource provision is examined with respect to this finding.     

On the socially optimal size of a life-saving facility

The paper examines the simultaneous problem of finding an optimal size of an intensive care unit and an optimal amount of social investment in preventive medicine. The “demand” for ICU services is assumed stochastic. The approach used is to minimize social costs involved in operating the facility and social loss stemming from deaths of untreated patients.

After deriving the optimality conditions the results are applied to recent British data     

An application of a spatially distributed queuing model to an ambulance system

An application of a spatially distributed queuing model to an ambulance system is presented. The purpose of this research was to assess the usefulness of a variation of the “hypercube” queuing model developed specifically for modeling an ambulance system. The model was applied to the emergency medical system of Greenville County, South Carolina using historical data. Results indicate that the model provides reasonably accurate estimates of system performance measures when the input parameters can be accurately specified.