Medical insurance with rank-dependent utility

Summary. A well-known result in the medical insurance literature is that zero co-insurance is never second-best for insurance contracts subject to moral hazard. We replace the usual expected utility assumption with a version of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) model that has greater experimental support. When consumers exhibit such preferences, we show that zero co-insurance may in fact be optimal, especially for low-risk consumers. Indeed, it is even possible that the first-best and second-best contracts are identical. In this case, there is no “market failure”, despite the informational asymmetry. We argue that these RDU results are in better accord with the empirical evidence from US health insurance markets. Received: February 26, 2001; revised version: October 4, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"The authors would particularly like to thank Simon Grant, John Quiggin, Peter Wakker and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions on earlier drafts. The paper has also benefitted from the input of seminar audiences at The Australian National University, University of Auckland, University of Melbourne and University of Sydney. Ryan also gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the ARC, through Grant number A000000055. Correspondence to:R. Vaithianathan     

Human Capital, Growth, and Inequality in Russia

Our model captures the fact that Russia has both much human capital and an education system that produces the wrong skills for a market economy. We define a rule for the timing of educational restructuring that is Pareto optimal and that dominates all later times in a Paretian sense while simultaneously reducing inequality. We demonstrate that failure to implement restructuring early in the transition process is likely to produce a very long delay that will significantly reduce Russia's human capital. A retreat from subsidizing public education is likely to be counterproductive. We argue that early educational restructuring should be emphasized in Russia's transition strategy. J. Comp. Econom., December 1999, 27(4), pp. 618–643. Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, N.T., Hong Kong, People's Republic of China; University of Colorado, Denver, Denver, Colorado 88217; and Royal Holloway College, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 OEX, United Kingdom.     

A Bayesian Model of Voting in Juries

We model voting in juries as a game of incomplete information, allowing jurors to receive a continuum of signals. We characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium of the game, and give a condition under which no asymmetric equilibria exist under unanimity rule. We offer a condition under which unanimity rule exhibits a bias toward convicting the innocent, regardless of the size of the jury, and give an example showing that this bias can be reversed. We prove a “jury theorem” for our general model: As the size of the jury increases, the probability of a mistaken judgment goes to zero for every voting rule except unanimity rule. For unanimity rule, the probability of making a mistake is bounded strictly above zero if and only if there do not exist arbitrarily strong signals of innocence. Our results explain the asymptotic inefficiency of unanimity rule in finite models and establishes the possibility of asymptotic efficiency, a property that could emerge only in a continuous model. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D72.     

The unanimity rule and religious fractionalisation in the Polish-Lithuanian Republic

This paper analyses the role of the unanimity rule—known as liberum veto—in medieval Poland. We argue that the primary effect of the liberum veto was that it secured religious freedom and established domestic peace in an otherwise deeply divided and fractionalised country. What is more, this institution succeeded in doing so during an era which was characterised by violent religious conflicts and rise of absolutist monarchies throughout the European continent. Even after 1652, when the liberum veto seemed to have practically paralysed the decision-making of Polish-Lithuanian parliament, there were still reasons—related to religious issues—why its use could have been preferable to less inclusive voting rules. It can be argued, however, that the use of unanimity was not warranted in questions related to defence, especially in situations of national emergency, although it is questionable to which extent the sole presence of the liberum veto was susceptible to bring about the demise of the Polish-Lithuanian Republic.

Rethinking Political Bargaining: Policymaking with a Single Proposer

Most political bargaining in the U.S. system has two featureswhich are constitutionally mandated: (1) only one actor canmake a formal proposal, and (2) he or she can make an indefinitenumber of proposals. Existing work in economics and politicalscience ignores at least one of these features. I constructa model incorporating both of these components of politicalbargaining. The main finding of this article is that time preferencesand the number of periods have no effect on the equilibriumpolicy outcomes, which are identical to those first stated byRomer and Rosenthal in a one-period model. This result suggeststhat impatience and time preferences may not be key featuresof political bargaining. This model has implications for constitutionaland statutory rules regarding bargaining: it can be appliedto presidential appointments, legislation, citizen initiatives,vetoes and filibusters (e.g., Krehbiel's pivotal politics model),and term limits.     

Feminist economics as a Postmodern Moment

Wicksell saw economics as a way to effect social change. In addition to academic writings, he produced a steady stream of pamphlets, newspaper editorials, and public lectures that brought theoretical economics to bear on social policy. In this paper, consideration is given to this wider variety of Wicksell's writings, and his unanimity rule for public goods decision making is examined within the context of his social philosophy. We argue that the unanimity rule, rather than being narrowly focused on efficiency concerns, operated as a practical mechanism to achieve Wicksell's larger goal of social justice. This stands in contrast to the interpretation of Wicksell commonly presented in the public choice literature.     

Some Reflections on F.A. Hayek's The Sensory Order

Though F.A. Hayek is principally known for his work in economics, he also made contributions, both positive and critical, to the field of psychology. His most important piece in the latter field is his 1952 book, The Sensory Order. This paper attempts to locate The Sensory Order in relation to some of Hayek's other works. The origins of Hayek's interests in psychology, as revealed by an early student paper that provided a starting point for his later book, is noted. We then examine what may have motivated Hayek some 25 years later to return to psychology. Finally, the larger role that the book came to play in Hayek's overall system is explored. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Stability of the arms race models

Conclusion We have derived stability conditions of the equilibria for the discrete linear and nonlinear Richardson and Cournot type oligopoly models of the arms race amongn nations, and clarified their implications in various ways.The earlier version of this paper was prepared while the author was at The Australian National University in early 1980, and read at Applied Mathematics Conference in February, 1980 at Cowes, Victoria, Australia. I am indebted to two referees of this journal for valuable comments and also to Professor D. D. Siljak for sending me his paper [5] which was instrumental in preparing this paper.     

Endogenous market segmentation with heterogeneous agents

Summary. An explanation is provided for the evolution of segmented marketplaces in a pairwise exchange economy. Large traders operating in a pairwise exchange market prefer to meet other similar traders, because this enables them to trade their endowments in a smaller number of encounters. Large and small traders, however, cannot be distinguished a priori, and the existence of the small traders imposes a negative externality on the large traders. We show that, under conditions which are not very restrictive, establishing a separate market (perhaps with an entry fee) designated for the large traders induces the two types of traders to segment themselves. However, this segmentation is not necessarily welfare improving. Received: January 12, 2001; revised version: July 17, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I wish to thank the participants in the Friday Theory Workshop at the University of Sydney, and the participants at the 17th Australian Theory Workshop at the University of Melbourne for comments and discussion. John Hillas and Stephen King pointed out an omission in an earlier version, and Catherine de Fontenay and Hodaka Morita made extensive comments on earlier drafts. This work was initiated while I was a short-term visitor at the University of Southern California.     

Limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of a competitive equilibrium with or without short sales

Summary A condition oflimited arbitrage is defined on the endowments and the preferences of the traders in an Arrow-Debreu economy. Theorem 1 establishes thatlimited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of a competitive equilibrium in markets with or without short sales. Limited arbitrage bounds utility arbitrages, the diversity of the traders in the economy, and the gains from trade which they can afford from initial endowments (Proposition 2); it is related to but nonetheless different from the no-arbitrage condition used in finance. Theorem 2 establishes that an Arrow — Debreu economy has a competitive equilibrium if and only if every one of its subeconomies withN + 1 traders does, whereN is the number of commodities. Limited arbitrage has been shown elsewhere to be equivalent to the existence of the core [16], to the contractibility of spaces of preferences and to the existence of continuous anonymous social choice rules which respect unanimity [10], [14], [15], [16].This paper was circulated in December 1991 as a Working Paper of the Department of Economics, Columbia University, New York, and presented at seminars at Mathematics, Economics, and Operations Research Departments at Columbia, Harvard, Stanford University of California at Berkeley, University of Bonn and the University of Siena, at an invited presentation at the European Congress of Mathematicians, July 1992, and the Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society in Boston, January 1994. Valuable comments and suggestions from Roko Aliprantis, Masahiko Aoki, Kenneth Arrow, Duncan Foley, Geoffrey Heal, Lionel McKenzie, Paul Milgrom and two anonymous referees, and research support from NSF Grant No. 92-16028 and the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics are gratefully acknowledged.     

Organic constitutions and common law

Constitutions may be viewed as purely political instruments developed by wise and strong leaders and imposed on a loosely organized society. The alternate view taken in this paper sees a nation's constitution as being rooted in the norms of individuals that form communities and states. Constitutions grow from within; they are not imposed from outside. The history of constitutional development in England is part and parcel of the history of Common Law, which growing informally from small groups finally encompassed the nation-state to form a basis for constitutional government. The integrity of the law was rooted in the integrity of the individuals that formed the constitutional community. Alumni Professor of Economics, Clemson University. The author expresses appreciation to anonymous referees of this journal and to Liberty Fund, Inc. for supporting a conference during which the ideas for this paper were formed. He acknowledges an intellectual debt owed to Robert Staaf for ideas reflected in this paper.     

Long-run matching relationship in the Japanese labor market

This paper investigates the long-run relationship among new hiring, unemployment (job seekers), and unfilled vacancies in Japan, using an annual panel data on 47 prefectures for 1972-1999. We find that these three variables are I(1) processes, and are cointegrated in our panel data. Further, we estimate the panel cointegration equation derived from a Cobb-Douglas matching function by the heterogeneous fully modified OLS and heterogeneous dynamic OLS. The estimation results reveal that conventional within estimates could have non-negligible biases.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: October 2003All correspondence to Shigeki Kano. The authors are grateful to the associate editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments. Doctor Stephen J. Turnbull (University of Tsukuba) is also acknowledged for correcting English errors in this paper. Remaining errors are due to the authors. The data set and GAUSS programming code used in this paperare available upon request.     

Minimum participation rules for the provision of public goods

This paper considers the endogenous formation of an institution to provide a public good. If the institution governs only its members, players have an incentive to free ride on the institution formation of others and the social dilemma is simply shifted to a higher level. Addressing this second-order social dilemma, we study the effectiveness of three different minimum participation requirements: (1) full participation/unanimity rule; (2) partial participation; (3) unanimity first and in case of failure partial participation. While unanimity is most effective once established, one might suspect that a weaker minimum participation rule is preferable in practice as it might facilitate the formation of the institution. The data of our laboratory experiment do not support this latter view, though. In fact, weakening the participation requirement does not increase the number of implemented institutions. Thus, we conclude that the most effective participation requirement is the unanimity rule which leaves no room for free riding on either level of the social dilemma.     

Selecting Social Goals: J. M. Keynes and the Emergence of Ontological Rationality in Economics

In this paper we discuss the fundamental inconsistency that results from employing the two traditional concepts of rationality as the basis of selecting social goals. We then consider the possibility that the selection of social goals must be based on explicitly ethical criteria. To do so a third concept of rationality namely, ontological rationality, should be adopted. Moreover, we argue that J. M. Keynes in A Tract Monetary Reform based his public policy recommendations on a modified version of ontological rationality, thereby introducing ontological rationality into economics as the basis for selecting social goals.A previous version of this paper was presented at the Fifty-Eighth International Atlantic Economic Conference, October 7–10, 2004. The authors are grateful to session participants for their helpful suggestions, though the authors alone are responsible for the contents of the paper.     

A common trends model of UK core inflation

In this paper the long-run trend in RPI inflation (core inflation) for the UK over the 1961–1997 period is estimated within the framework of a multivariate common trends model which extends the bivariate VAR approach of Quah and Vahey (1995). In this context core inflation is directly linked to money and wage growth and interpreted as the long-run forecast of inflation from a small-scale, cointegrated macroeconomic system. First version received: September 1999/Final version received: October 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  We thank two anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions. Work on this paper was partially conducted when C. Morana was at Heriot-Watt University.     

Monte Carlo simulation of macroeconomic risk with a continuum of agents: the symmetric case

Summary. Suppose a large economy with individual risk is modeled by a continuum of pairwise exchangeable random variables (i.i.d., in particular). Then the relevant stochastic process is jointly measurable only in degenerate cases. Yet in Monte Carlo simulation, the average of a large finite draw of the random variables converges almost surely. Several necessary and sufficient conditions for such “Monte Carlo convergence” are given. Also, conditioned on the associated Monte Carlo -algebra, which represents macroeconomic risk, individual agents' random shocks are independent. Furthermore, a converse to one version of the classical law of large numbers is proved. Received: October 29, 2001; revised version: April 24, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Part of this work was done when Yeneng Sun was visiting SITE at Stanford University in July 2001. An early version of some results was included in a presentation to Tom Sargent's macro workshop at Stanford. We are grateful to him and Felix Kübler in particular for their comments. And also to Marcos Lisboa for several discussions with Peter Hammond, during which the basic idea of the paper began to take shape. Correspondence to: P.J. Hammond     

Stable partitions in a model with group-dependent feasible sets

Summary. In this paper we consider a model of group formation where group of individuals may have different feasible sets. We focus on two polar cases, increasing returns, when the set of feasible alternatives increases if a new member joins the group, and decreasing returns, when a new member has an opposite effect and reduces the number of alternatives available for the enlarged group. We examine two notions, stability and strong stability of group structures, that correspond to Nash and Strong Nash equilibrium of the associated non-cooperative game, and identify the classes of stable and strongly stable environments.Received: 29 June 2003, Revised: 17 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C71, C72, D62, D71.The previos version of this paper has been written while the second author was visiting the Technical University of Dresden. He wishes to thank the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for its generous support and the Technical University of Dresden for its hospitality. The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for useful comments.     

On the origins of vertical unbundling: The case of the French transportation industry in the nineteenth century

Abstract

This paper retraces the origins of the unbundling of infrastructure, which is a monopoly, from services, which are subject to competition. Using the case of the railroad industry in France, I examine how both natural monopoly theorists and legislation dealt with this subject in the nineteenth century. I argue that the origins of vertical unbundling date to this period with legislation pertaining to inland waterways and railroads. This was particularly the case for the railroad industry due to pricing and competition rationales. I analyze the writings of Dupuit and Walras, and show that they both agreed that infrastructure and services had to be unbundled for the inland waterways. In contrast, they expressed different justifications to defend the monopoly for the railroad industry. Following a chronological progression, the first section explores the origins of unbundling in legislation. The second section analyzes how theorists approached the way railroads had to be managed. Throughout, I highlight the interplay between their work and legislation.