How responsive is Chinese export supply to market signals?

This paper studies the behavior of Chinese exporters from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set and aggregate export unit price and volume indices. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The overall results indicate an increase in the responsiveness of export supply to market price signals in more recent periods following reforms.     

New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?

In this paper we analyse the effect that the euro has had on trade using a gravity model for 28 countries and covering the period 1990–2013. Our gravity specification includes time-varying fixed effects, correcting any possible bias that may arise from multilateral resistance variables or unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. Additionally, we explore the potential complementarity or substitution relationship between FDI and trade by including FDI inward and outward stocks in the specification. The time period in the dataset covers the creation and evolution of the European Monetary Union (EMU), starting from the introduction of notes and coins and including the recent economic crisis. Overall, our results show a positive effect of the EMU on trade and reveal the existence of a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

How Does Trade Openness Affect Regional Demographic Transitions? Evidence from China's Provincial Panel Data

This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on the demographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression method based on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The results indicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of China's demographic transition and has two distinct effects: (i) an income effect that accelerated the demographic transition by increasing per capita income; and (ii) a human capital effect that suppressed the demographic transition by reducing human capital accumulation. The effects of trade on demographic transition vary across different regions. This study identifies the important determinants of demographic transition in China's regions, and has rich policy implications for demographic transition and the upgrading of trade structure.     

Who Uses Free Trade Agreements?

The utilization of ASEAN free trade agreements (FTA) is low by international standards. To clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper uses unique affiliate‐level data to investigate what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use an FTA scheme in their exporting. Our findings are as follows. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified the origins of its procurements, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates that export actively to countries with higher general tariffs are more likely to use FTA. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates' locations and sectors.     

How Important is Improved Water Infrastructure to Microenterprises? Evidence from Uganda

Despite the proliferation of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), most have difficulty surviving, let alone expanding their operations. Using empirical evidence from two Ugandan towns we explore the impact of investments in water supply infrastructure on MSEs. Our findings suggest that, despite perceptions among firm owners that water supply is a binding constraint, economic benefits to MSEs of supply improvements may be limited. Current water infrastructure planning strategies may be based on erroneous assumptions about the relative demand for improved water supply by firms and households, as well as the feasibility of cross-subsidies between groups of users.     

Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?

It has been frequently argued that surges in capital inflows are a major cause of credit booms and banking crises in emerging market economies. This view suggests that there is little role that can be played by domestic policy to break this linkage. This need not be the case. We show that the linkage between surges and booms is not as strong as is often assumed. One problem with most previous studies is that a wide range of measures for both surges and booms has been used with little checking of the robustness of results. We deal with this issue by replicating 14 different measures of capital surges (gross and net) and 5 credit boom proxies from the literature on a sample of 46 countries from 1981–2010. A second difficulty is that some previous studies have not distinguished between the proportions of surges followed by booms and booms preceded by surges. We found substantial differences between these two relationships. While there is a good deal of variation in the individual correlations the vast majority of the calculated probabilities of a surge being followed by a credit boom fall within the range of 4 % to 13 %. Although the proportion of credit booms preceded by surges is higher, the correlations for both directions are much lower than are frequently assumed. While the probabilities of a surge being followed by a credit boom generally increased from the 1980s to the 1990s they fell again in the 2000s, suggesting the possibility that authorities have become better at limiting the adverse effects of surges on domestic credit growth.     

How Important Is Trade and Foreign Ownership in Closing the Technology Gap? Evidence from Estonia and Slovenia

This paper focuses on the impact that the different methods of privatization implemented in Estonia and Slovenia might have had on the pattern of technology transfer to domestic firms through either FDI or international trade. We develop an empirical model that looks at three aspects of the problem: the importance of direct and indirect effects of FDI; the role of local absorptive capacity; and the role of trade in technology transfer. The study finds that the method of privatization does influence the way a firm obtains technology from abroad: Estonia, which attracted a considerable amount of FDI through its privatization programme, used this channel to gain direct access to global markets for technology, while Slovenia discouraged sales of state enterprises to multinational firms and inclined domestic firms to use trade flows to gain access to these markets. JEL no. D24, F14     

How Sensitive is the Demand for Primary Education to Changes in Economic Factors?

During the recession in the 1970s and 1980s in less-developedcountries in general and in Zambia in specific, private costsof schooling increased and school quality deteriorated. Combinedwith poverty, these changes may have damaged the demand forprimary education. This observation motivated a study of therelationship between economic variables and the demand for primaryeducation. A binary choice model for the school enrolment decisionis estimated, and the relevance of economic incentives concerningthe decision to enrol in school is tested directly. Economicincentives to enrol in school are reflected in household income,educational expenses and quality indicators, and the resultsshow that they all affect school enrolment as expected, eventhough the magnitudes of the effects are relatively moderate.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of trade flows. I use a large data set covering annual bilateral trade flows between over 175 countries between 1950 and 1999, and estimate the effect of GATT/WTO membership on the coefficient of variation in trade computed over 25-year samples, controlling for a number of factors. I also use a comparable multilateral data set. There is little evidence that membership in the GATT/WTO has a significant dampening effect on trade volatility.JEL Classification Number: F13     

Why is the Inter-firm Credit Market in Korea Special? An Agency View of Trade Credit Use by Chaebols

Abstract

China and India (Chindia) have begun in recent years to enjoy growing measures of economic success, reversing centuries of structural poverty and negligible rates of economic growth. This article examines the influence of varying cultural propensities—Hinduism in India and Confucianism in China—and their impact on each country's economic turnaround. It discusses the historical circumstances that shaped Chindia's perspectives on foreign direct investment and how external forces contributed to domestic policy-making. It also addresses three ways in which culture can affect economy and two major events that cemented the direction of Chindian economic growth. Finally, the paper presents a comparative analysis of China and India and their respective impact of culture on development. It asserts that the forces of culture and its historical development do matter, especially when it comes for a nation to reverse its deprived and stagnated situation and to achieve a status of economic powerhouse.