我国资本流动与国际收支的变化趋势分析

近年来,巨额的国际资本流动深刻地改变了世界经济格局,影响着各国金融市场秩序、宏观经济运行与经济结构变动。我国资本流动的结构、规模和速度也在发生着很大变化,本文从国际资本流动的影响因素入手,从经济的、历史的、整体和国际政治的角度,分析我国资本流动和国际收支的变化趋势。     

国际短期流动资本的风险分析及法律对策

20世纪90年代以来,国际资本流动飞速增长,对全球经济的稳定和发展发挥着重要的影响。我国逐渐融入世界经济体系,国际资本流动给我国金融经济带来了重大的影响。如何有效地利用国际资本流动带来的利益,尽可能地防范由国际资本流动引致的风险,推动我国经济持续健康发展,是一个需要研究和解决的重要问题。     

论托宾税及对我国资本流动管理的改进

随着金融全球化的加速和金融深化的发展,国际资本流动越来越频繁,我国愈发受到国际资本流动的影响,尤其是国际短期资本的影响。因此,有效地监管国际资本流动,特别是国际短期资本流动是当前我国外汇管理面临的一项紧迫任务。本文从托宾税的提出、发展及实践出发,通过分析我国外汇管理在应对国际资本异常流动中存在缺陷,探讨了托宾税在我国应对资本异常流动时的效用,认为托宾税能有效地改进我国的资本流动管理。     

浅析当下国际资本流动对四川省经济发展的启示

经济全球化背景下资本在国际流动的状况的变化,影响着世界格局。同样,一个国家内部资本在不同区域间的流动状况,不仅影响着一个国家的经济结构,而且影响着一个国家整体经济发展水平、经济增长质量,以及一个国家经济发展的可持续性。国际资本流动往往间接地影响着国内资本的流动,这是本文分析的入手点。本文将立足于国际资本流动,探讨它对于区域经济(四川省经济)带来的双面影响。     

浅析当下国际资本流动对四川省经济发展的启示

经济全球化背景下资本在国际流动的状况的变化,影响着世界格局。同样,一个国家内部资本在不同区域间的流动状况,不仅影响着一个国家的经济结构,而且影响着一个国家整体经济发展水平、经济增长质量,以及一个国家经济发展的可持续性。国际资本流动往往间接地影响着国内资本的流动,这是本文分析的入手点。本文将立足于国际资本流动,探讨它对于区域经济(四川省经济)带来的双面影响。     

关于我国国际资本流动影响因素计量模型的构建和分析

本文对我国国际资本流动影响因素进行了比较深入的计量分析。第一部分分析比较和概括总结了国际学术界关于国际资本流动影响因素的现有理论的研究成果,总结了影响国际资本流动的一般因素。第二部分在参考第一部分研究的基础上,构建了我国国际资本流动影响因素的模型,对利率、汇率、通货膨胀率、开放度以及政策变量等因素对我国国际资本流动的影响进行了计量分析,并提出相关政策建议。     

国际资本流动对我国国际收支的影响及对策

本文从我国国际资本流动面临的问题入手，分析了国际资本流动对我国国际收支的影响，并从政策引导和监管国际资本流动这两方面，阐述了提高我国国际资本流动质量，抵御国际游资冲击的对策建议。     

国际资本流动的新趋势与我国利用外资政策

随着全球经济一体化步伐的不断加快,国际资本的跨国流动日趋活跃,国际间直接投资的规模越来越大,在全球范围内广泛影响各国的经济增长方式。我国利用外资的实践面临着新形势,出现了一些新情况、新问题,国际资本流动对我国利用外资的影响进一步扩大。本文从当前国际资本流动的趋势入手,引出我国如何利用外商直接投资的分析思路,对我国利用外商直接投资的现状、经验及存在的问题进行分析,并提出今后利用外资的对策与建议。     

国际短期资本流动对我国证券市场影响的实证分析

本文对国际短期资本流动对我国证券市场影响进行实证研究,以外汇储备增量与外商直接投资、贸易顺差之间的差为国际短期资本流动净额(CF)的数据序列,以上证综合指数(SH)为证券市场的数据序列,其中CF变量为被解释变量,SH变量为解释变量,选取了2005年1月~2015年12月的月度数据,通过做一元线性回归模型,经过了描述性统计,相关系数分析,单位根和协整检验,格兰杰因果检验以及通过建立了误差修正模型,回归结果得出,在长期来看,国际短期资本流动净额对我国证券市场具有正面的影响,二者经过误差修正模型得到的系数为0.14,而在短期来看,通过相关性检验,可以得到二者的相关系数为-0.09,为负面的影响,国际短期资本流动在短期和长期对我国证券市场的影响不一样。国际短期资本流动的变化会影响到上证指数的变化,长期来看存在着联动的关系,主要是上证指数对国际短期资本流动的带动作用。最后,提出了提高我国证券市场发展水平的一些建议,如提高对国际短期资本流动的认识,保持良好的宏观经济政策,坚持人民币升值自由化道路,完善我国的金融市场,营造良好的经济发展环境,以利于促进我国资本市场的健康发展。     

我国短期国际资本流动状况变动原因分析

近年来,我国短期国际资本流动规模的逐渐扩大,引起了各界广泛关注。本文基于vAR模型,分析了代表性名义利差、人民币升值压力和经济增速差异对我国短期国际资本流动的影响。结果表明：我国短期国际资本流动在较大程度上由其自身变化来解释,同时受到上述三大因素的影响。随着我国短期资本流入压力的逐渐增大,增强政策针对性、引导短期国际资本合理流动,对维护我国金融体系安全和资产价格稳定具有重要的现实意义。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.