The Economics of the Criminal Behavior of Young Adults

A bstract This study uses a combination of individual-level and county-level data to estimate an economic model of crime for young adults similar to that used by Becker (1968) and Trumbull (1989). In order to estimate a model of crime in which both individual-level and county-level data are used, it is necessary to take account of the bias introduced by using aggregate-level data in conjunction with individual-level data. In order to eliminate this bias, a technique derived by Moulton (1990) is employed. Results from a logit regression model indicate that race, sex. and peer pressure have statistically significant effects on the probability that a young adult will commit a crime. Results also suggest that police presence, as measured by county-level per capita police expenditures, does not deter young adults from committing crimes.     

The market for street crime: An economic analysis of victim-offender interaction

This paper views the economic explanation of crime rates from a new perspective by explicitly deriving an economic model of the behavior of potential victims and considering the interaction of the behavior of potential victims with the behavior of offenders. Crime is produced through offenders supplying time in search of victims and victims demanding to expose themselves to the environment. A model is set up in which the crime rate, the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time, and the probability of finding a victim per unit of offenders' search time are simultaneously determined. The model leads us to distinguish the “real” crime rate (the probability of being a victim per unit of exposure time) from the “nominal” crime rate (the number of crimes per capita). The nominal crime rate can be inversely related to the real crime rate.     

State Lotteries, Isolation and Economic Growth in the U.S.

This paper uses a Granger causality test adapted for use with cross-section time series data, to (1) test the relationship between lottery revenue and state economic growth (per capita income), and (2) address the importance of cross-border purchases in the relationship. Neither issue has been empirically tested previously. Previous evidence (Caudill, et al., 1995) suggests that states surrounded by lotteries are more likely than isolated states to introduce lotteries. But the empirical results here suggest that lotteries do not contribute to economic growth unless the state is isolated from other state lotteries. The importance of isolation suggests that cross-border purchases (exports) of lottery tickets have a significant impact on the effectiveness of lotteries as fiscal policies, and that "defensive" lotteries (those introduced to keep citizens from buying tickets from neighboring states) are ineffective.     

Estimating the economic costs of organized crime by synthetic control methods

The economic costs of organized crime have been estimated for the case of southern Italy by Pinotti (Economic Journal 2015; 125, F203–F232, 2015): using synthetic control methods, he finds that, due to the advent of the Italian Mafia in the regions Apulia and Basilicata, GDP per capita dropped by 16%. Replicating this study in a narrow sense by estimating the same model with the same data, but using different software implementations, we observe minor differences stemming from the different implementations. By identifying the correct implementation, we find that the loss in GDP per capita due to the presence of the Mafia has been slightly overestimated.     

增补预防性储蓄的托宾-索洛模型

非预期的预防性储蓄通过资产替代产生稳态名义货币增长率(或稳态通货膨胀率)对稳态人均资本(或稳态人均产出)的非线性门槛效应。门槛的临界值是非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率的递减函数。非线性机制取决于非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率和人均实际货币余额-人均资本比率与通货膨胀率、人均资本边际产出的相关性。     

Health human capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries

This paper investigates the effects of health human capital on the growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries. Using an expanded Solow growth model, panel data, and a dynamic panel estimator, we find that the growth rate of per capita income is strongly and positively influenced by the stock of, and investment in, health human capital after controlling for other variables. The stock of health human capital affects the growth rate of per capita income in a quadratic way: the growth impact of health human capital decreases at relatively large endowments of health stock. Our estimates suggest that 22% and 30% of the transition growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries respectively, can be attributed to health. The structure of the relationship between health human capital and the growth rate of income in Sub-Saharan African countries is similar to the structure of the relationship in OECD countries. This implies that increased stocks of health human capital leads to higher steady state income. Our results have interesting policy implications.     

A hump-shaped transitional growth path as a general pattern in long-run development

Long-run development is defined as the income transition between the traditional and the modern steady state, in which the speed of the transition is low near the two steady states but high and volatile in between them. This transition implies a hump-shaped relation between the level of per capita income and its growth rate. A hump-shaped growth-income path can be simulated with a two-sector growth model, in which the traditional sector is gradually replaced by the modern sector. Kernel regressions reveal a noisy but robust hump-shaped relation between the growth rate and the level of per capita income in stacked cross-country panel data.     

Computing the Extent of Circumvention of Proposition 13: A Response

Galles and Sexton (1998) showed that California state and local revenues exceeded their previous real per capita levels as did the sum of property taxes plus charges and miscellaneous revenues within a decade after Proposition 13 passed, and concluded that Proposition 13 was only temporarily successful at shrinking California state and local governments. Khoury and Pal (2000) challenge this conclusion. However, their conclusion that Proposition 13'mvention "n only marginal"from using per $1000 of income comparisons rather than real per capita comparisons and from using growth rate changes, which fail to adjust for U.S. fiscal trends, instead of changes in the levels of variables as their primary measure.     

Spatial distribution of the specialization of arts

The hypothesis is that the major source of concentration of arts in different regions is due to agglomeration effects of specialized talents, city size, income, and quality of life. Twenty-nine large metropolitan areas are ranked and assessed for enhancing the climate for arts activity. Data on metropolitan areas in the United States on cost of living, transportation, employment, education, climate, crime, health care, recreation, city size, and per capita income are used as explanations for predominance of art in the 29 metropolitan areas. The results indicate that cities with larger populations and higher per capita income have greater concentrations of artistic activity. Other explanatory variables include factors associated with the quality of life. (JEL RIO, R23)     

CORRUPTION'S DIRECT EFFECTS ON PER‐CAPITA INCOME GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

Corruption is a symptom of weak institutional quality and could have potentially adverse effects on economic growth. However, heterogeneity in reported findings makes it difficult to synthesize the evidence base with a view to test competing hypotheses and/or support evidence‐based policy and practice. To address this issue, we have extracted 327 estimates of corruption's direct effect on per‐capita GDP growth from 29 primary studies, following a peer‐reviewed and pre‐published systematic review protocol. Precision‐effect and funnel asymmetry tests indicate that corruption has a negative effect on per‐capita GDP growth after controlling for publication selection bias and within‐study dependence. However, multivariate meta‐regression analysis results indicate that the overall effect is not robust to inclusion of moderating variables through a general‐to‐specific procedure for model specification. We report that the marginal effect of corruption on per‐capita GDP growth is more adverse when the primary study estimates relate to long‐run growth, are based on low‐income‐country data only, and extracted from journal papers. The effect is less adverse in studies that use the International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index and in those reporting estimates from two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

人均收入差距导向的投资战略

除了税收手段直接调整人均收入差距之外,政府可利用投资配置来影响生产过程,进而调整人均收入差距。在总量封闭经济的框架下,本文以人均收入差距最小化为目标,通过引入多地区多产业Cobb-Douglas生产函数、劳动一资本比率、资本时变率,改造最优经济增长模型。实验表明,通过权衡不同地区、不同产业的重要程度,调整投资在不同地区、不同产业之间的配置比率,政府可缩小人均收入差距。     

State Lotteries and Agency Costs: Hidden Costs to Nonparticipants

A bstract .   Some nonparticipants support lotteries because they expect the lottery will shift a portion of their tax burden to participants. The principal-agent model suggests that lotteries will result in an above normal increase in state expenditures. This paper finds that 77 percent of net lottery proceeds are utilized for above normal spending increases, suggesting that tax benefits to nonparticipants are greatly diminished.     

剔除通胀因素后中国人均消费支出的实证分析

根据一般消费理论,收入和价格是决定消费两个主要因素。根据1980-2006年我国消费样本数据建立了我国消费模型,通过EVIEWS软件利用OLS方法进行参数估计,并对模型进行了检验。经过计量分析得知我国人均消费水平受GDP影响,且人均消费水平与人均CGDP呈明显线性关系。若我国人均GDP增长1%,则人均居民消费水平约增加0.71%。滞后的人均消费水平对我国当年的人均消费水平的影响是不显著的。     

Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited

This study investigates, using state-level data for the period 2000–2005, the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of "voting with one's feet." This analysis differs from previous related studies not only in its adoption of more current migration and other data but also in other ways. First, unlike most earlier related studies, it includes a separate measure of the overall cost of living; second, it examines per pupil (rather than per capita) outlays on public primary and secondary education; and third, in addition to property taxes, it also focuses on per capita state income tax burdens. Inclusion of the last of these variables in the analysis is based on studies that have found the existence of a state income tax to have influenced migration patterns and other studies that have found higher state income tax levels to have resulted in reduced per capita income growth over time. Moreover, including both property tax burdens and income tax burdens broadens the scope of the hypothesis. Strong empirical support for the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis (as interpreted here) is obtained for the study period.     

Unemployment and gang crime: can prosperity backfire?

In this paper, we study how unemployment affects gang crime. We examine a model of criminal gangs and suggest that a substitution effect between petty crime and severe crime is at work. In the model, non-monetary valuation of gang membership is private knowledge. Thus, the leaders face a trade-off between less crime per member in large gangs and more crime per member in small gangs. A decrease in unemployment may result in a switch from a large gang that requires petty crime to a small gang that requires severe crime.     

Is the causal nexus of energy utilization and economic growth asymmetric in the US?

This paper re-examines the causal nexus of energy utilization and GDP per capita in the US. The novelty of the paper is to allow for asymmetry in causality by using a new test introduced by Hatemi-J (forthcoming). A bootstrap procedure is used with leveraged corrections that perform more accurately when the statistical assumptions for validity of asymptotic distributions are not fulfilled. This is especially the case for sample sizes as in the current paper. The estimation results reveal strongly that a negative energy consumption shock will cause a negative shock in the output per capita. That is, if the energy utilization per capita decreases then the output per capita will also decrease. Surprisingly, such a causal impact for positive shocks is not found. These empirical results might indicate that there is an optimal quantity of energy in the US that needs to be consumed as otherwise the economic growth will suffer. However, the consumption of energy beyond that optimal quantity will not necessarily result in an enhanced rate of economic growth.     

Voting with their feet: Relative economic conditions and state migration patterns

Over the past decade, state and local policymakers and business leaders across the U.S. have expressed concern regarding the ability to attract and retain skilled workers, given the economic climate of their states compared with other parts of the nation. Examining the factors underlying state-level migration trends is important to determine what role, if any, public policy might play in addressing their potential impact on local labor supply. Using data from the Internal Revenue Service for each of the 48 states in the continental United States from 1977 through 2006, this paper examines the role of three economic factors—namely labor market conditions, per capita incomes, and housing affordability—in determining domestic state-to-state migration flows. Estimates from a logistic model of out-migration show that while all three measures of relative economic conditions are significant determinants of migration, the magnitude of their impact varies and has changed considerably over time. For example, the importance of per capita income as a determining factor has fallen considerably since the late 1970s, while that of housing affordability has risen. Interestingly, the role of labor market conditions—while significant throughout the entire 30-year period—was most prominent in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Estimates from the model are used to forecast migration for 2009 for selected states. The results from this exercise are surprisingly accurate when compared to actual state migration patterns for that year.     

Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings

The time-series properties of per capita income and per capita earnings in the regions of the United States are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of convergence. We find evidence for per capita income convergence for U.S. regions during the 1929–1990 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of convergence. The evidence for per capita earnings convergence is, however, less conclusive. Shocks to per capita earnings are found to be more persistent than shocks to per capita income. This implies that the regional distribution of transfer payments tends to smooth the effects of deviation on relative regional per capita earnings and reinforce trends in per capita income convergence.     

购买力平价与汇率背离原因研究

本文通过建立面板门限模型拓展了基于“宾效应”的PPP方法,并实证研究了富裕程度、经济自由程度、贸易成本及经济增长速度等因素对PPP与汇率背离的影响。研究表明：（1）富裕程度与贸易成本是解释背离之谜的关键因素。（2）PPP与汇率背离程度随人均GDP的增长存在显著的门限效应。（3）将“宾效应”描述为倾斜的“微笑曲线”能更好地刻画价格水平指数（PLI）与人均GDP关系的阶段性特征。（4）人民币汇率在2005年及以后的低估程度平均约为18%。     

Does Financial Development Affect Environmental Degradation? Evidence from the OECD Countries

In this study, building a simple model that incorporates static and dynamic elements, the relationship of financial development and economic growth to environmental degradation is investigated together with the validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our analysis is based on an unbalanced panel data set covering the OECD countries over the period 1970–2014. Our approach thoroughly accounts for the presence of cross‐sectional dependence between the sample variables and utilizes second generation panel unit root tests in order to investigate possible cointegration relationships. The empirical findings do indicate that local (NO_x per capita emissions) and global (CO₂ per capita emissions) pollutants redefine the EKC hypothesis when we account for the presence of financial development indicators. Specifically, in the case of global pollution an N‐shape relationship is evident in both static and dynamic frameworks, with a very slow adjustment. Lastly, our study calls for a strengthening of the effectiveness of environmental degradation policies by ensuring sustainability of the OECD banking system in order to drastically reduce emissions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment