GSE Activity and Mortgage Supply in Lower-Income and Minority Neighborhoods: The Effect of the Affordable Housing Goals

I estimate the credit supply effect of the Underserved Areas Goal (UAG), which establishes GSE purchase goals for mortgages to lower-income and minority neighborhoods. Taking advantage of discontinuous census tract eligibility rules and abrupt changes in tract eligibility, I find some evidence of a small UAG effect on GSE purchases and mortgage originations, without crowding-out of FHA and subprime lending. The results also suggest that the GSEs exploit the law??s lack of precision-targeting, yielding effects that might diverge from the law??s intent.     

关于加强对保障性住房建设金融支持的建议

保障性住房建设是关系人民群众切身利益和经济社会发展大局的重大民生工程。但当前金融支持保障性住房建设还面临着许多问题和制约因素。有效解决这些实际问题,更好地发挥银行信贷和金融服务在保障性住房建设中的资金融通作用,对于促进保障性安居工程的顺利实施具有极其重要的意义。     

提供经济适用房准入标准的利弊思考

地方政府为了完成保障房指标,超比例投资建设经济适用房造成经济适用房空置,为盘活空置的经济适用房,拟向中高收入人群提供经济适用房。本文将这二项作为研究对象,发现第一个政策解决了财政资金问题,却遇到意向不到的问题;第二个政策可以解决空置经济适用房占用财政资金问题,但在实施过程中将遇到与国家一些法律法规发生冲突的难题。向中高收入人群提供经济适用房的利弊得失,实际是在考验地方政府的智慧和施政能力。     

Japanese Housing Tenure Choice and Welfare Implications after the Revision of the Tenant Protection Law

A new mode of housing tenure in Japan, rental housing with fixed rental terms, was introduced in March 2000 with the revision of the Japanese Tenant Protection Law. This paper examines the implications of this new system by analyzing the determinants of the choices by households among the three types of housing tenure in Japan: owned housing, general rental housing, and rental housing with fixed rental terms, and calculates the estimated compensating variation. Our micro-data is based on the three waves of Japanese household longitudinal data (Keio Household Panel Survey, KHPS) covering all of Japan. The difference between general rental housing and rental housing with fixed rental terms is reflected in the length of the contract term and the level of rent. We carefully eliminate potential sample selection bias introduced to the conditional logit housing tenure choice model through the estimation of the hedonic price regression of each housing tenure alternative. We find that households with a smaller number of family members, those who moved from outside the local housing market, those headed by an unmarried household head, and those with plans to own a house in the near future tend to select rental housing with fixed rental terms. The estimated mean compensating variation by introducing rental housing with fixed rental terms for all households selecting that tenure is 1,205 JPY per month or 1.96% of their monthly rent. Moreover, younger and/or lower income households derived the greatest benefit from the revised law in the form of lower rents.

Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007–2009: Lessons for the future

An unsustainable weakening of credit standards induced a US mortgage lending and housing bubble, whose consumption impact was amplified by innovations altering the collateral role of housing. In countries with more stable credit standards, any overshooting of construction and house prices owed more to traditional housing supply and demand factors. Housing collateral effects on consumption also varied, depending on the liquidity of housing wealth. Lessons for the future include recognizing the importance of financial innovation, regulation, housing policies, and global financial imbalances for fueling credit, construction, house price and consumption cycles that vary across countries.     

建立我国公共住房制度的财税政策研究

在公有制土地上建设的住房产品作为具有外部性的混合公共产品,属于广义的财政范畴,需要公共政策的干预。我国房地产领域现行财税制度对公共住房制度建设支持力度严重不足,导致住房产品过度市场化,普通商品房市场价格飞涨。这是公共决策行为严重失误的必然结果。解决高房价问题的关键在于解决中低收入阶层的住房困难问题,其根本解决之道在于市场机制之外正确的公共政策干预。必须改革我国现行财政分配制度,建立适应我国房地产业健康发展的财税制度,促进房地产业健康可持续性发展。     

"租购同权"政策对我国大中城市房价的影响研究

根据2014年1月至2019年12月我国35个大中城市的面板数据,运用双重差分模型考量了"租购同权"政策对房价的影响.结果显示:"租购同权"政策不仅能直接有效地抑制试点城市新建商品住房及二手住房房价的增长,还能通过降低房价上涨预期间接平抑房价增长速度,且该政策对不同属性的住房市场及不同建筑面积的住房影响也不同.鉴此,应继续落实"租购同权"政策,大力发展住房租赁市场,增加优质教育资源的供给.     

"省联社"模式:理论基础、制度缺陷与改革建议

任何一项制度的出台都具有其历史继承性和改革的渐进性,农村信用社“省联社”模式在全国绝大省份的确立必然有其“路径依赖”的元素,具有相当程度的合理性。但由于“省联社”模式产权虚置导致其存在“内部人控制”和“外部人干预”的双重风险,使得农村信用社改革的成败建立在省联社管理层的道德与自律的基础上,具有较大的不确定性。因此,对省联社模式的改革也就势在必行。本文对省联社作为改革目标以及作为改革对象的原因进行分析,并对其改革的总体思路做一初浅探讨。     

美、英、日财产税税制特征和对我国的启示

本文首先介绍了美国、英国、日本三国财产税的基本情况,并总结了各国财产税税制设计的特征,在此基础上,剖析了我国房地产税制现存的问题,对我国开征物业税提出了相关政策建议。     

Bias in estimating the systematic risk of extreme performers: Implications for financial analysis, the leverage effect, and long-run reversals

We show how bias can arise systematically in the beta estimates of extreme performers when long-run return reversals are present and partly, or wholly, due to sign changes in unanticipated factor realizations. Our evidence is consistent with this bias being responsible for the large shifts in the beta estimates of extreme performers, more so than the leverage effect, which has been the predominant explanation in prior literature. Bias in these contemporaneous realized betas, estimated with the same returns that are to be risk adjusted, arises due to the general problem of “overconditioning,” where betas are estimated conditional on information that is not yet known. Several methods for conditioning betas on out-of-sample returns are evaluated and found to be lacking, although some offer improvement under certain circumstances. We also show evidence of this bias in the Fama-French Three-factor loadings of extreme performers. Our findings indicate not only that previous studies of long-run reversals understate contrarian profits but that bias is prevalent in the OLS beta estimates of extreme performers, and this has implications for estimating the cost of capital and measuring long-run performance. We offer recommendations for identifying when this bias is likely present, as well as general methods to correct for it.     

通货膨胀、住房所有者资本成本与住房需求——中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证分析

通过对我国35个大中城市的实证研究表明,通货膨胀将降低购房需求。这是因为前期住房所有权成本的增加和收入约束的共同作用使得通货膨胀对住房需求产生了不利影响。进一步对住房所有权成本的主要构成成分进行分析,构成住房所有权成本的资产升值和还款负担对住房需求的影响力存在差异,由治理通货膨胀引起的加息对住房需求带来负面影响要大于资产升值的积极效应,从而印证了在以个人住房贷款为购房资金主要来源的条件下,通货膨胀会降低住房的有效需求,对房地产市场产生抑制作用。     

The Effects of Productivity Shocks,Financial Shocks,and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises

What kind of shock affects exchange rate dynamics? How much of an effect does the monetary policy have on exchange rates? To answer these questions empirically based on the currency crisis model, I use panel data on 51 emerging countries from 1980 to 2011, identify shocks, and apply instrumental variable methods. I found that both productivity shocks and shocks to a country’s risk premium affect exchange rates and a 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate is associated with a 1 percentage point appreciation of domestic currency. I further apply this method to Asian and Latin-American crises.