中国区域税收征管效率评价及影响因素研究——基于四分法DEA-Malmquist的分析

基于拓展的四阶段DEA-Malmquist指数模型,利用2008-2014年省际数据,分析中国区域税收征管效率状况及动态趋势,并分解剖析全要素征管效率变动的四大影响因素.结果表明:2008-2014年全国税务系统征管效率值年均为0.868,全要素征管效率增速年均为10.1%,效率整体基本处于递增状态,但增速下滑趋势明显.影响因素分解发现:规模技术变化是驱动各地区税收征管全要素效率增长的核心因素,纯技术变动居中,规模效率和纯技术效率提升效果不显著;中部规模技术增速最快,东北和西部地区规模效率持续恶化,纯技术效率增速略快,东部纯技术增速强劲.     

辞旧迎新:中国宏观经济回顾与展望

2019年中国GDP增速为6.1％.受新冠肺炎疫情影响,2020年中国GDP增速下行至2.3％.在2021年前三个季度,中国GDP增速分别为18.3％、7.9％与4.9％,引用国际组织预测,预计2021年中国GDP增速有望反弹至8.0％左右.这意味着2020年与2021年的GDP两年平均增速约为5.2％.     

中国或同时遭遇“日本陷阱”及“拉美陷阱”

1979年至2011年这33年间,中国年均GDP增速达到了9．9％,而年均CPI增速仅为5．6％。持续的高增长、低通胀,使得中国经济在2010年超过日本成为全球第二大经济体,也使得中国经济总量超越美国成为许多人的期待。但是,即使中国经济总量超越美国,中国人均GDP也依然只有美国的1／6左右。     

领衔渔业“十二五”规划

10月17日,农业部发布《全国渔业发展“十二五”规划》,预计到2015年,渔业经济总产值达到2．1万亿元．年均增速10．2％;渔业产值达到1万亿元,年均增速为8．3％。重点在于扩大水产品生产总量,提升养殖所占比重,提高出口加工能力,利好水产养殖、加工以及远洋捕捞类企业。     

经济软着陆可期

2012年“两会”期间，温总理提出今年经济增速预期为7．5％，CPI的调控目标为4％以内。由于令球经济增速低迷．除农产品之外的大宗商品价格滑坡，中国经济本身也处于转型期，使中国经济增长和通货膨胀出现趋势性下行。     

尚未唤醒的万亿级体育市场

体育产业发展处于萌芽期 在国内居民收入水平持续提升、消费升级趋势以及城镇化建设的共同驱动下,人们的健身意识也在不断增强,体育产业作为现代服务业的重要组成部分有望获得巨大的发展空间。从目前来看,国内体育产业发展仍处于萌芽期,整体规模及产业化程度与国外差距依然明显。根据国家统计局数据,2013年国内体育产业增加值为3136亿元,同比增速为14．5％,占GDP比例仅为0．6％,仅为美国的1／5,体育总产值为美国的1／10,人均体育产值为美国的1／40t从欧盟整体来看,体育总产值占比也达到2％以上。     

开展工程担保业务的困境与出路 ——以江苏担保机构为例

2016年,全国建筑业总产值为19.36万亿元,同比增长7.1％,占国内生产总值的26％.按照住建部《"十三五"规划》目标,到2020年建筑业总产值将突破25万亿元.未来,建筑业将借助于"一带一路"开放战略的机遇,在走向国际市场的进程中提高竞争能力,实现传统建筑业向现代建筑业的转型升级.工程担保作为建筑行业健康发展的重要环节,有着巨大的业务空间.     

宏观经济失衡的体制探因

国经济目前仍处于宏观景气度较低的状态。一方面得益于“稳增长”政策，中国近年经济增速成功守住7．5％上下底线目标，另一方面经济运行仍旧持续面临下行压力和风险：一些上游工业部门产能过剩倒逼价格下降，资产泡沫因素较明显的房地产部门经历缩量降价调整，金融领域少数公司债则难以顺利还本付息甚至出现违约风险。     

经济环境、监管升级与寿险公司产品策略

一、当前经济环境：经济下行与金融风险集聚1.经济下行难以被根本抑制自2008年美国次贷危机后,中国经济一直处于下行状态,从2007年14%的增速一直跌至最近的6.5%。为此,政府先是采取了大量的需求侧政策,如降低利率、降低存款准备金率、开展大规模投资等政策,虽然对稳增长、保就业起到了巨大的作用,     

水产养殖 领衔渔业“十二五”规划

10月17日,农业部发布《全国渔业发展十二五规划》,预计到2015年,渔业经济总产值达到2.1万亿元,年均增速10.2%;渔业产值达到1万亿元,年均增速为8.3%。重点在于扩大水产品生产总量,提升养殖所占比重,提高出口加工能力,利好水产养殖、加工以及远洋捕捞类企业。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.