Response to Vuori and Vuori's commentary on “Heuristics in the strategy context”

We recently introduced a research program on how firms can effectively capture fleeting opportunities using heuristics. Heuristics, we advocate, are the essence of strategy, especially in unpredictable markets where opportunities are often numerous, fast moving, and uncertain. Our emphasis on heuristics invites comparison with prominent research programs in cognitive psychology. We address this opportunity by comparing our “simple rules” heuristics approach with “heuristics‐and‐biases” and “fast‐and‐frugal” heuristics research. Collectively, the three approaches offer a rich understanding of heuristics. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Breaking the frame: an analysis of strategic cognition and decision making under uncertainty

This paper reports the findings of two experimental investigations into the efficacy of a causal cognitive mapping procedure as a means for overcoming cognitive biases arising from the framing of strategic decision problems. In Study 1, final year management studies undergraduate students were presented with an elaborated strategic decision scenario, under one of four experimental conditions: positively vs. negatively framed decision scenarios, with prechoice vs. postchoice mapping task orders (i.e., participants were required to engage in cognitive mapping before or after making a decision). As predicted, participants in the postchoice mapping conditions succumbed to the framing bias whereas those in the prechoice mapping conditions did not. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings in a field setting, on a sample of senior managers, using a decision scenario that closely mirrored a strategic dilemma currently facing their organization. Taken together, the findings of these studies indicate that the framing bias is likely to be an important factor in strategic decision making, and suggest that cognitive mapping provides an effective means of limiting the damage accruing from this bias. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers

Research Summary : How can strategic decision makers overcome inertia when dealing with change? In this article we argue that cognitive flexibility (i.e., the ability to match the type of cognitive processing with the type of problem at hand) enables decision makers to achieve significantly higher decision‐making performance. We show that superior decision‐making performance is associated with using semiautomatic Type 1 cognitive processes when faced with well‐structured problems, and more deliberative Type 2 processes when faced with ill‐structured problems. Our findings shed light on the individual‐level mechanism behind organizational adaptation and complement recent work on strategic inertia. In addition, our findings extend management studies that have stressed the relevance of cognitive flexibility for responding to the demands of increasingly open, flexible, and rapidly changing organizations. Managerial Summary : Humans are creatures of habits. We tend to prefer known courses of action over new ones. In many cases, habits are good. However, when things change in unpredictable ways, the past may not be good guidance for the future. We argue that “cognitive flexibility”—the ability of understanding when to rely on habits vs. when to explore new courses of action—enables managers to switch from a “fast” decision mode, based on habits, to a “slow,” more deliberate decision mode that facilitates the exploration of new courses of action. Managers high in cognitive flexibility reflect on the situation at hand, recognize and value diversity in viewpoints, and integrate such diversity in their own decision processes. By valuing diversity, they are more likely to overcome inertia.     

Fear,Shame and Guilt: Economic and Behavioral Motivations for Strategic Default

This study examines underwater primary resident homeowners to identify why some decide to strategically default while others do not. We find that realized shame and guilt are consistent with ex ante expectations. However, the financial backlash experienced by strategic defaulters is less than anticipated, causing strategic defaulters not to regret their actions. State‐specific bankruptcy exemption levels and real estate laws only marginally explain the decision to strategically default, partly because the decision to walk away from a mortgage is emotional, and partly because the implementation of these laws is uncertain and confusing to distressed borrowers. Rather, we find key strategic default drivers include the homeowner's expectation of future real estate price movements, frustration with the lender, moral evaluation of the decision to strategically default, loan knowledge, political ideology, gender, income and age.     

Thinking strategically about thinking strategically: the computational structure and dynamics of managerial problem selection and formulation

A new model of managerial problem formulation is introduced and developed to answer the question: ‘What kinds of problems do strategic managers engage in solving and why?’ The article proposes that a key decision metric for choosing among alternative problem statements is the computational complexity of the solution algorithm of alternative statements. Managerial problem statements are grouped into two classes on the basis of their computational complexity: P‐type problems (canonically easy ones) and NP‐type problems (hard ones). The new model of managerial cognitive choice posits that managers prefer to engage with and solve P‐type problems over solving NP‐type problems. The model explains common patterns of managerial reasoning and decision making, including many documented ‘biases’ and simplifying heuristics, and points the way to new effects and novel empirical investigations of problem solving‐oriented thinking in strategic management and types of generic strategies, driven by predictions about the kinds of market‐ and industry‐level changes that managers will or will not respond to. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences on strategic decision effectiveness: Development and test of an integrative model

This paper draws upon three broad perspectives on the strategic decision‐making process in order to develop a more completely specified model of strategic decision effectiveness in a different context, namely Egypt. The key variables in this model consist of three strategic decision‐making process dimensions (rationality, intuition, and political behavior); seven moderating variables concerning decision‐specific, environmental, and organizational factors; and strategic decision effectiveness as an outcome variable. A two‐stage study was conducted in which the first stage provided exploratory insights and the second stage investigated hypotheses on the impact of strategic decision‐making process dimensions on strategic decision effectiveness and the moderating role of broader contextual variables. The second‐stage study produced three major findings: (1) both rational and political processes appear to have more influence on strategic decision effectiveness than does intuition; (2) strategic decision effectiveness is both process‐ and context‐specific; and (3) certain results support the ‘culture‐free’ argument, while others support the ‘culture‐specific’ argument. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rational heuristics: the ‘simple rules’ that strategists learn from process experience

While much research indicates that organizational processes are learned from experiences, surprisingly little is known about what is actually learned. Using a novel method to measure explicit learning, we track the learned content of six technology‐based ventures from three diverse countries as they internationalize. The emergent theoretical framework indicates that firms learn heuristics. These heuristics have a common structure centered on opportunity capture and are learned in a specific developmental order. This results in a deliberately small, yet increasingly strategic, portfolio of heuristics. Broadly, we contribute to the psychological foundations of strategy by highlighting the rationality of heuristics as strategy, capability creation as the cognitive transition from novice to expert heuristics, and simplification cycling as a critical dynamic capability for sustaining competitive advantage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the exploration–exploitation dilemma: An fMRI study of attention control and decision‐making performance

This paper studies the cognitive processes that enable decision makers to switch between exploitation and exploration. We use functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a sample of expert decision makers to make two main contributions. First, we identify and contrast the specific brain regions and cognitive processes associated with exploitation and exploration decisions. Exploitation activates regions associated with reward seeking, which track and evaluate the value of current choices, while exploration relies on regions associated with attentional control, tracking the value of alternative choices. Second, we propose and test the idea that stronger activation of the brain circuits related to attentional control allows individuals to achieve better decision‐making performance as a result. We discuss the implications of these results for strategic management research and practice. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Evaluating growth options as sources of value for pharmaceutical research projects

The financial value of research projects is difficult to assess because they are highly uncertain. Often, the result is either an overly conservative approach to strategic innovation, based on net present value analyses, or an overly aggressive approach based on optimistic qualitative portfolios. R&D project evaluation requires recognizing threats as well as opportunities from uncertain events, and incorporating flexibility in managerial action in response to them. Real options pricing analysis is a widely discussed tool for evaluating such managerial flexibility. The limitation of options pricing lies in its requirement for complete financial markets, in which a replicating asset can be found that reproduces (or, at least, is correlated with) the project’s payoffs in all possible states of the world. However, the major risks of research projects are typically project specific and cannot be replicated in external markets. In this situation, a decision tree is a better tool to represent managerial options during execution of the project, and to evaluate its value. A decision tree is equivalent to options pricing for risks that can be priced in the financial markets (if trading of securities is explicitly included), and moreover, it can incorporate risks and flexibility that are not traded in financial markets. Using decision trees, we demonstrate a quantitative evaluation of compound growth options from research at BestPharma, a large international pharmaceutical company. A growth option is a future opportunity that may arise from a current R&D investment. The growth option may not be related to the primary purpose of the R&D project, or not even be directly foreseeable. Kester (1984) has argued that growth options may account for a large part of project value. BestPharma faced the problem of choosing among several strategic research initiatives. They developed a decision tree representation of the projects, which helped to provide transparency about project value and strategic options. Most importantly, carefully thinking through the tree helped to identify growth options, represented by additional branches in the tree, and to quantify that they represented major sources of value.     

Toward an integrated theory of the firm: The interplay between internal organization and vertical integration

Research summary : Two central issues in strategic management are the determination of a firm's internal delegation and its vertical boundaries. Despite the importance of these issues, there is scant analysis concerning their interaction. Using a comprehensive database of the construction industry, we show that vertical integration positively influences the centralization decision and that the main mechanism driving this relationship is an improvement in the hierarchically coordinated adaptation of firm activities when complexity and uncertainty are high. We also observe that centralization is negatively related to the extent of relational contracts between principals and agents, and positively related to an exogenous increase in the cost of employee layoffs. Our results suggest that managers cannot consider firm boundaries and internal organization to be independent decisions. Managerial summary : We ask whether a firm's decision about vertically integrating or outsourcing its activities affects the choice of centralizing or delegating its internal decision‐making process. Our statistical analysis shows that firms with more vertical integration tend to centralize the decision‐making process and that firms that outsource more tend to decentralize more. Why? Vertical integration enables the use of centralized authority to coordinate activities that interact intensively. Accordingly, we found that the positive influence of vertical integration on centralization is especially significant in more complex and uncertain environments, when the need for coordination is higher. Thus, our results suggest that managers should choose vertical integration considering its effect on internal decision‐making processes, particularly when coordination is important. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An empirical investigation of strategic investment decision models

Numerous authors have argued for the need to study the process of strategic decision making. In the present study a judgement capturing methodology is employed, to identify the specific structures of decision models and simplification heuristics in a series of strategic investment decisions. Implications of the results and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Environmental context,managerial cognition,and strategic action: an integrated view

This study addresses an apparent disconnect between two views of strategic action: the ‘economic view,’ which contends that industry structure is the primary influence on strategic action, and the ‘cognitive view,’ which suggests that managerial cognition drives strategic action. We argue that this disconnect has created artificial boundaries between the two perspectives and has limited our ability to develop holistic explanations of strategic action. In response, we develop an integrated model that answers two questions: 1) Does industry context affect managerial cognition? 2) Does managerial cognition mediate the relationship between industry context and strategic responses to environmental changes? To examine these questions, we study the relationship between industry velocity, the structure of top management's cognitive representation of the environment, and the speed of response to environmental events. We find that industry velocity influences the structure of cognitive representations, which in turn influence the speed of response to environmental events. These results support our contention that both industry and cognition variables are critical in developing explanations of strategic actions. These results have implications for our understanding of the development of top managers' beliefs, the relationship between beliefs and action, and the nature of the complex relationship between industry context, managerial cognition, and strategic action. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic strategic groups: deriving spatial evolutionary paths

Recent theoretical developments in the domain of strategic groups, specifically those related to cognitive groups and strategic group identity, seem to suggest that strategic group membership is likely to be relatively stable over time and that firms in a strategic group co‐evolve. Yet appropriate data analytic approaches that use information about firms over time to identify stable strategic groups and their evolutionary paths have been lacking. To overcome such limitations, this research proposes a new clusterwise bilinear multidimensional scaling model that can simultaneously identify (1) the number of strategic groups, (2) the dimensions on which the strategic groups are based, and (3) the evolution of the strategy of these groups over time. Our discussion encompasses various alternative model specifications, together with model selection heuristics based on statistical information criteria. An illustration of the proposed methodology using data pertaining to strategic variables for a sample of public banks in the tristate area of New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania across three time periods (1995, 1999, and 2003) identifies two underlying dimensions with five strategic groups that display very different evolutionary paths over time. Post hoc analysis shows pronounced differences in firm performance across the five derived strategic groups. This article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the findings, as well as potential future research directions. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Erratic strategic decisions: when and why managers are inconsistent in strategic decision making

While decision makers in organizations frequently make good decisions rooted in stable and consistent preferences, such consistency in outcomes is not always the case. In this study, we adopt a psychological perspective of judgment to investigate managers' erratic strategic decisions, which we define as a manager's inconsistent judgments that can shape the direction of the firm. In a study of 2,048 decisions made by 64 CEOs of technology firms, we examine how both metacognitive experience and perceptions of the external environment (hostility and dynamism) could affect the extent to which managers make erratic strategic decisions. The results indicate that managers with greater metacognitive experience make less erratic strategic decisions. The results also indicate that in hostile environments managers make more erratic strategic decisions. But contrary to our expectations, in dynamic environments managers make less erratic strategic decisions. Similarly, hostility and dynamism interact in their effect on erratic strategic decisions in that the positive relationship between environmental hostility and erratic strategic decisions will be less positive for managers experiencing high environmental dynamism than those experiencing low environmental dynamism. These results have important implications for strategic decision‐making research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SIMILARITY JUDGMENTS IN STRATEGY FORMULATION: ROLE,PROCESS AND IMPLICATIONS

Similarity judgments are an important and distinct aspect of strategy formulation. They are manifest in strategic decisions and errors, and in the construction of analytic concepts such as strategic groups and relatedness in diversification. However, existing models of strategy formulation either assume away the process of making similarity judgments or regard it as unproblematic. This paper highlights the role of similarity judgments in strategy formulation, and discusses cognitive findings showing that decision makers’ assessment of similarity is not free from bias. The cognitive findings help construct a new process explanation for a wide range of apparently isolated strategic errors. The process explanation is contrasted and integrated with traditional explanations based on imperfections in decision inputs. Finally, in light of the cognitive findings, the methods and assumptions of existing approaches in strategy formulation research to the construction of analytic concepts are reexamined. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Communication and attention dynamics: An attention‐based view of strategic change

Research Summary : The attention‐based view (ABV) has highlighted the role of organizational attention in strategic decision making and adaptation. The tendency to view communication channels as “pipes and prisms” for information processing has, however, limited its ability to address strategic change. We propose a broader role for communication as a process by which actors can attend to and engage with organizational and environmental issues and initiatives and argue that such a view can significantly advance understanding of strategic change. On this basis, we offer suggestions for future research on communication practices, vocabularies, rhetorical tactics, and talk and text in shaping organizational attention in strategic change. We also maintain that this enhanced view of the ABV can help advance research on dynamic capabilities, strategy processes, strategy‐as‐practice, and behavioral strategy. Managerial Summary : To further enhance our capabilities to manage strategic change and renewal processes in organizations, we need a better understanding of how to manage organizational attention. In this article, we highlight the importance of understanding the role of communication and discuss the use of different communication practices, vocabularies, rhetorical tactics, and talk and text as possible levers that can be used to dynamically shape organizational attention. We call for further research to advance the understanding of how these levers can be used to influence the ways in which different sets of strategic issues, initiatives, and action alternatives are handled. We believe that such an enhanced view of organizational attention can enable the development of new, improved strategy practices to manage strategic change and renewal processes.     

Consequences of misspecified mental models: Contrasting effects and the role of cognitive fit

Research summary: Mental models, reflecting interdependencies among managerial choice variables, are not always correctly specified. Mental models can be underspecified, missing interdependencies, or overspecified, containing nonexistent interdependencies. Using a simulation model, we find that under‐ and overspecification have opposite effects on exploration, and thereby, performance. The effects are also opposite, depending on whether a manager controls all choice variables. The mechanism underlying our results is a feedback loop: misspecified mental models influence managerial learning about the effectiveness of choices; this learning guides how the environment is explored, which in turn, affects which information will be generated for future learning. We explore implications of these results for strategic management and introduce the notion of “cognitive fit” between the mental model of the decision‐maker and the strategic environment. Managerial summary: Managers often rely on mental models to guide their decision‐making. These mental models, however, are often misspecified, that is, more or less complex than the situation managers are facing. Using a simulation model, we study the consequences of such misspecified mental models. We find that the performance implications of misspecified mental models crucially depend on whether the manager controls all choice variables. We identify situations in which simpler mental models are better than overly complex ones, and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entangled decisions: Knowledge interdependencies and terminations of patented inventions in the pharmaceutical industry

Research Summary : This study explores the role of knowledge interdependencies on the termination of patented inventions. Termination refers to the abandonment of inventive efforts that are no longer deemed promising. We argue that high interdependencies between an inventive effort and the other inventions in the same research program will increase the cognitive burden on managers and decrease the likelihood of termination. Further, in the presence of interdependencies, managers are likely to rely on heuristics for termination decisions. We focus on two such heuristics: interdependencies of an invention with those in other research programs and the level of external competition in the research program. We test our hypotheses with longitudinal data on patent terminations through non‐payment of renewal fees in the pharmaceutical industry. Managerial Summary : Effective management of innovation portfolios requires termination of opportunities that are no longer promising. Most current tools on termination assume that opportunities to be evaluated are independent from one another. This assumption may limit their usefulness in increasingly complex research domains, such as pharmaceutical R&D. In this study, we investigate how interdependencies among inventions influence firms' tendency to terminate those inventions. Our results on patent terminations show that a patent that is more interdependent with other patents in the same research program is less likely to be terminated. This suggests that managers may have difficulty in evaluating the inherent value of interdependent opportunities. This result is stronger when the patent is less interdependent with those in other research programs or in a more competitive area.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

The best laid schemes o'TQM: strategy, politics and power

This article explores management's strategic decision making in relation to Total Quality Management (TQM). It demonstrates that management's strategies are fraught with politics and power relations, which influence the 'choice' of strategy and the way in which such strategies are 'implemented'. Hence, management's strategic decision making may not be planned and rational, and their behaviour is often contradictory which may undermine TQM or render its outcomes uncertain and contestable.