民营企业从出口为主向出口、投资双向驱动的转变

由于国际金融危机引致各种贸易保护势头日益强化,我国产品通过贸易的方式进入国际市场变得更加困难;同时,资本及产业输入和输出比例的严重失衡,也让国际资本挤占了国际市场的盈利空间。民营企业如能借助本次国际金融危机所导致的世界经济结构调整,将直接出口面临的挑战转变为对外直接投资的机遇,选择好对外投资的主体、渠道、领域及对象,便可逐步完成从出口为主向出口和投资双向驱动的战略转变。     

后金融危机时代美欧金融发展形势及启示

后金融危机时代,美国的金融霸权未被金融危机动摇,突出表现在美国仍然掌控货币霸权、金融机构霸权、国际金融话语霸权等,且美国继续滥用其金融霸权地位。而欧洲则深陷欧债危机,其主要原因包括欧洲国家自身经济失调、欧元区内部的不平等地位和国际评级机构的不公正评级等。我国应根据美欧金融形势和经验教训,坚持稳中求进,深入实施扩大内需,转变经济结构,把握发展实体经济这一坚实基础,稳健发展虚拟经济,合理制定与调整我国金融业发展战略,加强我国金融业实力和地位,注意对国内金融创新的监督,构建我国金融业全面风险管理体系。     

国际金融危机背景下的中俄石油合作

国际金融危机对全球经济格局的影响是广泛而深刻的,就中俄两国来说,石油合作对于两国有着极其重要的意义。本文基于对俄罗斯能源战略及其金融危机后面临的新格局的分析,提出在上海合作组织的框架下,中国与俄罗斯建立新的石油合作战略联盟,以更好地加强两国在石油领域的合作。     

国际金融危机与世界经济前景

国际金融危机目前已经发展到第二阶段,其影响从发达国家扩展到发展中国家,从金融领域蔓延到实体经济。2008年发达国家经济已经陷入衰退,全球经济增长率大幅放慢。鉴于国际金融危机还在继续恶化,2009年全球经济增长率会进一步降低。但我们认为,房地产市场2009年下半年可能会趋于走稳,油价下跌,通货膨胀压力减轻,由于主要大国采取政府干预措施以及经济政策的国际协调,全球经济发生20世纪30年代那样大萧条的可能性不大。除了短期内经济衰退之外,这场国际金融危机的中长期影响将是深远的。     

Shift‐contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets

As part of a broader financial development reform agenda, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have successfully expanded and revitalised their stock markets over the last decade. Whereas previous contributions have investigated efficiency, international integration and portfolio diversification opportunities, very little is known about these markets’ vulnerability to external financial crises. In this paper, we investigate shift‐contagion to the MENA region using a comprehensive battery of econometric tests for a number of different crises episodes: the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian virus and its Brazilian sequel, the 2000 Turkish collapse, the 9/11 turmoil, the 2001 Argentinean crisis, the 2002 Enron/WorldCom scandal and the 2007–09 global financial crisis. We found that Turkey, Israel and Jordan were the most vulnerable markets over the 1997–2009 period, followed by Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Lebanon. Our results also highlight heterogeneous but increasing levels of sensitivity to external financial shocks, especially during the recent global financial crisis. From a financial point of view, this suggests that MENA‐based diversification strategies may be relatively inefficient during periods of global turmoil. From an economic point of view, our results suggest that stock market development also involves potential destabilisation costs. This issue should be acknowledged and addressed by policymakers if these countries are to ensure a smooth transition towards international financial integration.     

Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis

We compare sovereign bond spreads during the international financial crisis across groups drawn from 43 countries, including 20 emerging economies. We extend traditional factor analyses and utilize propensity score matching to select a non-crisis sample for comparison with the crisis sample that is more robust to exogenous crisis dating. We find minimal changes over the crisis period in the average spreads of local-currency-denominated emerging market bonds. In contrast, the spreads of peripheral Eurozone sovereign bonds increased by large amounts and were subject to sovereign risk contagion.     

Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.     

Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis

We study the collapse of international trade flows during the global financial crisis using detailed data on monthly US imports. We show that credit conditions were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes, by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial vulnerability across sectors. Countries with higher interbank rates and thus tighter credit markets exported less to the US during the peak of the crisis. This effect was especially pronounced in sectors that require extensive external financing, have limited access to trade credit, or have few collateralizable assets. Exports of financially vulnerable industries were thus more sensitive to the cost of external capital than exports of less vulnerable industries, and this sensitivity rose during the financial crisis. The quantitative implications of our estimates for trade volumes highlight the large real effects of financial crises and the potential gains from policy intervention.     

Mexican peso crisis and its spillover effects to emerging market debt

This paper examines the spillover effects of the Mexican financial crisis to emerging financial markets. As of November 1994, the financial markets were not anticipating a change in exchange rate regime in Mexico. Coincident with the peso devaluation on 20, December 1994, Mexican Brady bond prices declined significantly and continued to experience significant decline during the subsequent three months. Emerging market assets reacted differently to the Mexican crisis. Latin America as a region was more exposed to the Mexican crisis than emerging markets from other regions. The ratio of liquid monetary assets to international reserves and the ratio of current account to GDP were the most influential variables in explaining variation in CARs across countries. Trade competition with third markets was the most significant transmission channel during the Mexican crisis.     

论发展中国家金融危机与美元汇率波动

自布雷顿森林体系解体后至今的几十年中,以发展中国家爆发金融危机为主要形式的世界经济波动在频率和规模上都有不断扩大的趋势。近几十年发展中国家金融危机与美元币值的波动有一定的联系,即当美元贬值时世界上某些国家将进入经济繁荣时期,当美元升值时某些国家将出现经济衰退甚至爆发金融危机。     

Eindämmung von Finanzmarktkrisen durch erhöhte Regulierungsintensität? Ein Update

The recent financial crisis challenged policymakers to create better supervision for both banks as well as international financial markets. Due to different political and governmental orientations, for instance, an overarching approach in European countries is unlikely. Where it to succeed in finding a conceptually closed and integrated approach in the coming years, the financial architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union could serve as an example for other parts of the world. However, the authors suspect an increasing fragmentation of regulatory elements and a potential return to special national regulation are more likely outcomes.     

The impact of crisis events on the stock returns volatility of international airlines

This paper adopts the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to examine the relationship between the weekly returns of shares of the international airlines in 1996–2010. It also incorporates major international crisis events and observes the influence of different aspects on the volatility of returns of company shares. Different events exhibit significantly different regional volatility impulses in the countries in which the airlines are located. The Asian financial crisis enhances the returns volatility effects of Asian airline companies. The global financial crisis significantly intervenes with the returns volatility of airline companies around the world. The results suggest that major international events may all have risk effects on the returns on the share prices of airlines.     

The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks

The paper analyzes the role of the banking system in the international transmission of financial shocks. A channel of transmission is defined as a mechanism through which a financial crisis in one country induces a financial crisis in another country. Channels involving banks operate through changes in the capital adequacy ratios of a common lender and in the value of collateral of domestic borrowers, through bank runs and bank panics, and through moral hazard. Recent empirical evidence points to the significant effects of the common lender channel on the probability of a financial crisis, while mitigating the role of bank runs and remaining inconclusive about moral hazard. Thus, we introduce a series of indices of vulnerability to the common lender channel that improve existing measures by taking into account both the borrower's dependence on foreign loans and the lender's exposure to a single country. By comparing the degree of vulnerability to the common lender channel during the 1990s major crises, we find that vulnerability was higher in the Asia Pacific region in 1997 (and, especially, in the five countries most involved in the crisis) than in Latin America and East Europe. Vulnerability was significantly lower in 2000 for almost all the countries in our sample, due to both a more even distribution of liabilities on the part of developing countries and a higher degree of diversification of bank investments from the three main lending countries (United States, Japan, Germany).     

International reserves and the global financial crisis

This study examines whether pre-crisis international reserve accumulations, as well as exchange rate and reserve policy decisions made during the global financial crisis, can help to explain cross-country differences in post-crisis economic performance. Our approach focuses not only on the total stock of official reserves held by countries, but also on the decisions by governments to purchase or sell reserve assets during the crisis period. We introduce new data made available through the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) Reserve Template, which allow us to distinguish interest income and valuation changes in the stock of official reserves from the actively managed component of reserves. We use this novel data to gage how (and whether) reserve accumulation policies influenced the economic and financial performance of countries during and after the global crisis. Our findings support the view that higher reserve accumulations prior to the crisis are associated with higher post-crisis GDP growth.     

Boom and bust in the Baltic countries — Lessons to be learnt

For the first seven years of this decade, the Baltic countries experienced very rapid GDP growth. In 2007, though, the boom period turned to bust as country-specific factors such as the slowdown in credit growth dampened domestic demand growth. This was followed by the international financial crisis, which further limited the availability of foreign capital and pushed the Baltic countries into severe recession. This article looks in particular at the role of public finances, the impact of the fixed exchange-rate regimes and the need for a more balanced growth pattern in the future.     

金融自由化风险向金融危机转化的可能性分析

本文认为,发展中国家的金融自由化在提高金融机构效率和赢利的同时,会带来许多新的风险,而且在一定条件下有可能导致金融危机。金融自由化带来的乐观预期和大量国外私人资本的内流会使汇率高估,极易遭受投机的攻击。从带来风险到最终引发金融危机,主要有三个风险阶段,即违约风险阶段、到期不能偿还风险阶段和汇率风险阶段。当金融自由化(如利率自由化、金融业务与机构准入自由化和资本账户自由化)带来的新的风险累积到风险临界值时,在受到国内突发事件、国际金融市场波动和投机资本攻击的情况下,金融自由化风险便会向金融危机演变。     

后次贷危机时期官方支持的贸易融资之国际协调与监管

贸易融资作为解决付款信用的重要手段,在2008年美国次贷危机引发的金融危机之背景下,出现巨额缺口,严重威胁发达国家和发展中家的经济复苏进程,而私人部门和国际贸易合同主体提供的贸易融资仅是杯水车薪。国际社会针对发展中国家提供的贸易融资的支持之多边和区域努力,以及发达国家和地区在已有的融资安排基础上的调整,为贸易融资的国际协调提供了可能性。世界贸易组织的有关规定则为这种国际协调提供了监管机制。中国作为世贸组织成员,在金融危机背景下,应积极响应贸易融资的国际协调与监管,以促进本国国际贸易的健康发展。     

后危机时代全球金融秩序调整、发展趋势研究综述与评论

本文在综合多位学者论述的基础上对当前的国际金融危机进行研究和评论,认为,美国次贷危机引发的金融流动性危机,逐渐演变为全球性金融危机,其后果的严重性,引发我们对目前全球金融格局及金融秩序的关注。后危机时代的国际金融秩序已不再适合当今全球经济的健康、可持续发展,调整不合理的全球金融秩序已不可避免。而金融秩序调整过程中可能会出现的问题以及调整的趋势,也需要更多的思考。在后危机时代,中国在完善金融监管制度以保证国家金融安全的基础上,还应把握全球金融秩序调整的良好契机,调整国内产业结构,转变经济增长方式,适当调整财政、税收和汇率政策,加强国际金融合作与监管,积极推进人民币国际化进程,参与国际金融体系建设,将中国制造转变为中国创造,提升政治、经济地位。     

Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility

The volatility of capital flows to emerging market (EM) countries and frequency of financial crises have imposed high welfare costs on the countries involved. The empirical literature provides, at best, a mixed picture on the relationship between long‐run EM country growth and financial integration. Meanwhile, the prevailing policy discourse regarding reform of the international financial system remains incomplete: the focus has largely been on either institutional and policy measures required of EM countries or international crisis‐resolution procedures. The role played by private financial markets and institutions in the developed world has not received adequate attention. This paper describes some of the structural features inherent in today's financial markets that directly contribute to the instability in EM capital flows.     

国际金融危机的扩展与应对

这次国际金融危机产生的直接原因,是美国次贷危机的冲击、延伸和扩展,它不仅表现在金融领域,而且蔓延到社会再生产与流通的各个方面。因此,对这次危机的形成和扩展过程作必要的研究,对当今世界的认识和我国经济的发展,特别是对于我国掌握金融工具,更好地应对国际挑战,是有理论和现实意义的。