Multifamily Distress: A Case for National Action*

Among other reasons, controlling financial distress in the conventional multifamily sector is important because of the neighborhood destabilizing effects of partially occupied and vacant buildings and the potential lending cutbacks that could be made by financial intermediaries whose loan portfolios may contain substantial numbers of older, failing rental properties. This article develops the case for a heightened national concern for the importance of this inventory to the housing welfare of the nation, particularly lower income and minorities; and then by analyzing the known levels of distress in the FHA insured unsubsidized stock. Failure rates in this portion of the multifamily sector are sufficiently great to suggest that similar problems already plague the conventional market and that such distress should be of major policy interest. The final section propose the development of a multifamily research and demonstration program as a basis for national action.     

Macroeconomic Determinants of Multifamily Housing Starts: A Descriptive Analysis

The multifamily component of residential construction has received relatively little attention in the existing literature on macro-economic housing markets. In those studies where single and multifamily starts have been treated separately [ Kawaller (1976) , Arcelus and Meltzer (1973) , Brady (1973) , Kalchbrenner (1972) Smith (1969) , the greater share of attention and background discussion has been directed toward the singlefamily sector. Such treatment probably is due to the fact that multifamily starts have traditionally accounted for the smaller fraction of total private starts. Since the Census Bureau began recording the starts breakdown in 1959, however, this fraction has not fallen much below a fifth in any quarter, and it has been as high as 48 percent. Moreover, with a growing acceptance of the condominium and cooperative housing concepts, expanding Federal rental assistance initiatives, and changing life style preferences, it would appear that increased attention given to the multifamily sector, may significantly enhance our understanding of housing markets in general.     

A Regional Model of Multifamily Housing Starts

This paper presents a regional time series model of multifamily housing activity. The theoretical model, based on a profit-maximizing builder or investor is used as a basis for estimating housing start and completion equations for each of the four Census regions and the U.S. as a whole. The empirical estimates show that new housing construction is highly responsive to profitability consideration, with the elasticity being between 5 and 14. The empirical estimates also demonstrate that there is substantial variance between regions in terms of parameter estimates.     

FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing

Recent models of pricing mortgages and/or mortgage insurance have used option-pricing models as their framework. The focus is usually on default, which is viewed as a put option (to sell the house to the lender in exchange for the mortgage) and prepayment, which is viewed as a call option (to buy the mortgage from the lender). Analysis then uses techniques like those used to price options in capital markets. Unfortunately, homeowners do not seem to exercise their option as quickly as do traders in organized markets. We estimate prepayment and default functions, which are meant to be a first step in developing modified, option-based models of mortgage pricing.     

A Dynamic Double-Trigger Model of Multifamily Mortgage Default

This study advances the commercial mortgage literature by providing theory and methods for incorporating both equity and cash-flow considerations in default models. We use local market conditions to compute a (joint) probability that default is in-the-money, based on both equity and cash-flow considerations. Statistical analysis is performed using data on multifamily mortgages originated in the 1980s and early 1990s. Simulations based on statistical modeling show advantages of the probabilistic double-trigger approach over other measures of equity and cash flow.     

Employee Financial Participation and Productivity: An Empirical Reappraisal

Avner Ben‐Ner and Derek Jones cast doubt on the notion of a simple causal link between financial participation (FP) and productivity, and consequently on the validity of much of the empirical literature that has sought to quantify this relationship. This paper is an attempt to investigate this proposition. Our empirical reappraisal revealed that the route through which employee share ownership and profit‐sharing schemes achieve these gains is quite separate and more involved than either the theory or prior empirical research suggests. This is particularly evident by extending the complementarities thesis beyond purely participatory bundles to embrace firm‐specific and organizational variables. Our analysis also addressed recent calls to aid the interpretation of the observed effects of FP by creating a link between the use and operation of FP and its impact on productivity.     

Financial Reform: A Review of the Past and Prospects for the Future

Over the past decade there have been a wide range of proposals for comprehensive financial reform. In terms of national legislation, these proposals— which are designed to alter the basic asset-liability mismatch of the housing oriented thrift institutions—have often been stymied. However, legislation is once again under serious consideration in Congress; and more importantly, significant change is already underway at the state and local level, fueled by technology, consumer pressure, financial markets and regulatory action. In fact, lead by such innovations as the money market certificate, negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts, alternative mortgage instruments and an expanded secondary market, it seems that a strong, silent revolution is underway which will substantially alter the activities and composition of thrift institutions. This paper, then, will outline what has happened over the past decade, the reasons for legislative failure during much of this period, and the factors which fuel the evolution and new pressure for change which is underway. It also discusses the prospects and implications for the future, especially as they relate to financial institutions, housing, and the consumer. **     

The Theory and Evidence on Real Estate Financial Decisions: A Review of the Issues

There has developed a growing body of literature, both theoretically and empirically based, on real estate financial decisions. Despite these advances, there are a number of important issues that remain unanswered. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review and analysis of where research on real estate financial decisions has been, where it stands today, and where it is likely to be headed in the future. Some of the unresolved issues in real estate investment analysis are also discussed. The hope is that this review will provide the stimulus for solving some of these complex issues.     

The Shifting of FHA Discount Points: Actual Vs. Expectations

This study extends the earlier studies by Zerbst and Brueggeman (Z&B) and Colwell, Guntermann and Sirmans (CGS) with regard to the shifting of FHA discount points by the seller to the buyer in the form of a higher selling price. The study extends the earlier studies by reducing the estimation problems of the CGS model and further developing the Z&B model to incorporate expected discount points built into the asking price. The results presented indicate that 100% of the points are not being shifted. Reasons for the less-than-full shifting are given.     

A Structural Empirical Model of R&D,Firm Heterogeneity,and Industry Evolution*

This article develops and estimates an industry equilibrium model of the Korean electric motor industry from 1991 to 1996. Plant-level decisions on R&D, physical capital investment, entry, and exit are integrated in a dynamic setting with knowledge spillovers. We apply the novel approximation of oblivious equilibrium to estimate the R&D cost, magnitude of knowledge spillovers, adjustment costs of physical investment, and plant scrap value distribution. Knowledge spillovers are essential to explaining the firm-level productivity evolution and the equilibrium market configuration. A $15\%$ R&D subsidy maximizes industry output and is broadly consistent with a past policy initiative of the Korean government.     

Interfirm Innovation under Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for Strategic Knowledge Partitioning*

This paper analyzes how uncertainty and life‐cycle effects condition the knowledge boundary between assemblers and suppliers in interfirm product development. Patents associated with automotive emission control technologies for both assemblers and suppliers are categorized as architectural or component innovations, and technology‐forcing regulations imposed by the government on the auto industry from 1970 to 1998 are used to define periods of high and low uncertainty. Results confirm that suppliers dominate component innovation whereas assemblers lead on architectural innovation. More importantly, when facing uncertainty firms adjust their knowledge boundary by increasing the knowledge overlap with their supply‐chain collaborators. Suppliers clearly expand their knowledge base relatively more into architectural knowledge during such periods. But assemblers' greater emphasis on component innovation in periods of greater uncertainty is only true as a relative deviation from an overall trend toward increasing component innovation over time. This trend results from an observed life‐cycle effect, whereby architectural innovation dominates before the emergence of a dominant design, with component innovation taking the lead afterward. Thus, for assemblers life‐cycle effects may dominate over task uncertainty in determining relative effort in component versus architectural innovation. This work extends research on strategic interfirm knowledge partitioning as well as on the information‐processing view of product development. First, it provides a large‐scale empirical justification for the claim that firms' knowledge boundaries need to extend beyond their task boundaries. Further, it implies that overlaps in knowledge domains between an assembler and suppliers are particularly important for projects involving new technologies. Second, it offers a dynamic view of knowledge partitioning, showing how architectural knowledge prevails in the early phase of the product life cycle whereas component knowledge dominates the later stages. Yet the importance of life‐cycle effects versus task uncertainty in conditioning knowledge boundaries is different for assemblers and suppliers, with the former dominating for assemblers and the latter more influential for suppliers. Finally, it supports the idea that architectural and component knowledge are critical elements in the alignment of cognitive frameworks between assemblers and suppliers and thus are key for information‐exchange effectiveness and resolution of task uncertainties in interfirm innovation.     

Bid Coordination in Sponsored Search Auctions: Detection Methodology and Empirical Analysis*

Bid delegation to specialized intermediaries is common in internet ad auctions. When the same intermediary bids for competing advertisers, its incentive to coordinate client bids might alter the functioning of the auctions. This study develops a methodology to detect bid coordination and presents a strategy to estimate a bound on the search engine revenue losses imposed by bid coordination. When the method is applied to data from auctions held on a major search engine, coordination is detected in 55% of the cases of delegated bidding and the search engine's revenue loss ranges between 5.3% and 10.4%.     

PERSPECTIVE: Empirical Generalization and the Role of Culture in New Product Development*

Empirical generalization continues to be a challenge in most applied fields that favor publication of original results. The purpose of this study was to report on a new product development exercise in one, controlled cultural setting, which replicates and extends Ettlie (2002) . Results from four recent graduate business classes in Portugal show that the background of students—technical versus other or mixed—is a nearly perfect predictor of the average or central estimates the class makes tendency (median) of new product success in the exercise. Country matters little. These results have now persisted over nearly seven years, and implications are discussed concerning theory, practice, and future research.     

Striker Replacements in the United States,Canada, and Mexico: A Review of the Law and Empirical Research A Review of the Law andEmpirical Research

The debate on striker replacements is marked by considerable passion and controversy, with many unions and workers' rights advocates proposing legal prohibitions and employers and “free market” advocates generally opposing such prohibitions. In this article we go beyond the rhetoric and examine the nature and extent of striker replacement laws across North America. We also examine the research evidence on this issue and make suggestions for future research.     

Restructuring the U.S. Electric Power Sector: A Review of Recent Studies

The restructuring of the U.S. electric power industry has been described as “one of the largest single industrial reorganizations in the history of the world.” As with deregulation and reform of other industries, electricity restructuring was intended to produce cost efficiencies and price benefits to consumers. Whether it has achieved its stated objective is the focus of a number of recent studies that are examined in this review. The studies differ in numerous important ways – most importantly, in their methodologies and their conclusions. The focus of this review is on the strengths and limitations of their specific methodologies and, hence, on the confidence one might place in their conclusions. The article begins by setting out the basic methodological approaches employed in public policy evaluation. It then illustrates these points with examples from methodologies employed in several studies of electricity restructuring, concluding that several methodological deficiencies call into question the study results. In particular, despite much advocacy, there is little reliable and convincing evidence that consumers are better off as a result of the restructuring of the U.S. electric power industry.     

金融危机理论沿革及新发展

金融是现代经济的核心,金融部门的风险和不稳定性因素可能极大地影响实体经济的运行,因此,正确评估一国所面临的金融风险成为维护一国金融体系稳定的重要内容。在学术界,金融危机（稳定性）理论已经过了强调“基础经济变量”的第一代模型、强调“心理因素”和“预期自致型危机”的第二代模型和对国家资产负债状况进行总体分析的第三代模型的衍变过程。资产负债分析是第三代理论研究模型的核心,但由于统计资料的局限性,这一分析方法在我国的应用还受到诸多限制。     

Smart Products: Conceptual Review,Synthesis, and Research Directions*

Smart products have received increasing attention from researchers and practitioners alike. One limitation of the existing literature, however, is that the term is often used as a blanket term and that there is no consensus on what a smart product actually is. Because different studies rely on differing conceptualizations, the current body of knowledge is scattered and lacks a uniform language and conceptual boundaries. Specifically, existing research has subsumed inherently different products under one collective term, has relied on a multitude of ad hoc criteria to define smart products or has conflated smart products with the services they render and/or the wider ecosystem, in which they operate. These developments limit the systematic advancement of the field and impede the integration of the smart product concept into related concepts such as the Internet of Things. To address these issues, this article provides an extensive analysis of the status quo of the field, with the goal of developing a common language and comprehensive conceptualization of smart products. First, existing studies on smart products were systematically reviewed across contributing disciplines and supplemented with a bibliometric analysis that allowed for a deeper understanding of the smart product concept within and across disciplines. This analysis revealed an initial set of 16 capability-based criteria that are currently applied to conceptualize smart products. Second, based on a systematic coding procedure, these criteria were synthesized and organized within a comprehensive framework delineating four distinct product archetypes for the digital age: (1) Digital, (2) Connected, (3) Responsive, and (4) Intelligent. Third, three major conceptual themes that arise from this framework are identified and possibilities for future research are pointed out. In sum, this work contributes to the literature by improving the understanding of smart products as an epistemic object and by laying the ground for more cumulative research endeavors.     

区域产业集群发展关联网络的建模与实证分析——以汽车行业和石化行业为例

本文首先根据投入产出直接消耗系数表,结合复杂网络理论的建模思想构建了一类有向加权网络——区域产业结构网络,然后运用2007年全国投入产出数据研究了该网络的一系列特征值。在研究网络的路径问题时,考虑到网络边权是一种相似权,进而转向研究网络的最长路径及其蕴含的产业经济意义。以此为基础,论文又构建了产业间最强关联网络和产业集群发展关联网络,一方面梳理出区域产业规划过程中的关键产业部门,另一方面通过与发达国家和地区进行比较,识别出产业集群化过程中存在的问题。最后选取了汽车行业和石化行业进行了产业集群发展可行性方面的实证分析。