影响中国服务贸易出口的可量化因素分析

根据1990-2004年中国服务贸易出口及其可量化因素的时间序列数据建立的多元线性回归模型,印证了人均国内生产总值、世界GDP增长率、服务业占GDP的比重、货物贸易出口额等因素对中国服务贸易出口的影响。因此,应优化服务贸易出口结构。扩大市场开发度和加大政府支持力度,以增加中国服务贸易的出口。     

Distortions,infrastructure, and female labor supply in developing countries

In this paper I document cross-country gaps between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and GDP per worker. The gaps are driven mostly by a lower female labor force participation (LFP) in developing countries. Females began to participate more in the labor markets of these countries when more households acquired access to basic infrastructure and when distortive policies affecting the prices of household appliances were partially removed. I use a model of home production with endogenous labor force participation to account for these facts. I find that the prices of household appliances and access to infrastructure are quantitatively important in explaining cross-country labor supply differences.     

浙江省基础设施投资效益的实证分析

基础设施投资效益是政府宏观决策者关注的重点,本文以浙江省的发展为例系统研究基础设施投资的效益,通过建立误差修正模型定量分析基础设施对经济增长的作用大小,得出基础设施投资对浙江省的经济增长有较强的推动作用,而且推动效率较高,因此基础设施投资在国民经济中起重要作用,能够极大地刺激国民经济的增长。最后提出了合理的投资政策和制度安排。     

耦合与解耦视角下中国货物运输与经济增长的关系研究

本文在耦合与解耦视角下，根据货运经济弹性对中国货物运输和经济增长关系进行了系统研究，发现1988—2016年间二者之间关系经历了非耦合（1988—1998年)——趋于耦合（1999—2003年)——耦合（2004—2013年)——解耦迹象（2014年以来)的演化过程。为探索二者关系演化的机理，本文从货物与经济的供求框架出发，归纳出影响二者关系的主要因素，并构建SVAR模型进行检验。实证结果表明，第二产业占比和交通基础设施水平对货运经济弹性存在显著的正向作用；在经历了持续大规模建设之后，交通基础设施因素对货运经济弹性的影响作用不断减弱，产业结构变化的影响不断凸显。本文认为：为支撑和引领经济高质量发展，中国交通运输系统已经到了从“规模速度型”向“质量效率型”转型发展的重要节点。     

对外开放、基础设施规模与经济增长

本文采用主成分分析法构建了一个综合考虑国际贸易和FDI因素的对外开放指标和综合考察4类基础设施的基础设施规模指标。在此基础上利用中国28个省份1995—2008年的面板数据,以工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)研究基础设施规模、对外开放与省区经济增长之间的关系,并检验了基础设施规模是否提高了对外开放对省区经济增长的促进作用。本文的实证结果表明:对外开放和基础设施规模都显著地促进了省区经济增长,对外开放和基础设施规模每提高1%,将导致人均实际GDP提高0.379%和0.251%;基础设施规模提高了对外开放对省区经济增长的促进作用,在基础设施相对发达的地区,其对外开放对省区经济增长的偏效应明显地高于基础设施相对落后的地区;最后从动态过程看,对外开放对各省区经济增长的边际影响都有不同程度提高,而基础设施规模对省区经济增长的边际影响在部分地区出现下降。     

The structural transformation between manufacturing and services and the decline in the US GDP volatility

I construct a two-sector growth model to study the effect of the structural transformation between manufacturing and services on the decline in GDP volatility in the US. In the model, a change in the relative size of the two sectors affects the transmission mechanism that relates sectoral TFP shocks to endogenous variables. I calibrate the model to the US and show that, for given stochastic sectoral TFP processes in manufacturing and services, structural change generates a decline in the volatility of both aggregate TFP and GDP, in the volatility of each broad component of GDP (manufacturing consumption, services consumption and investment) and in the volatility of labor. Numerical results suggest that the structural transformation can account for 28% of the reduction in the US GDP volatility between the periods 1960–1983 and 1984–2005.     

The Penalties of Inefficient Infrastructure

In most developing countries, irrigation, road, and power networks are not in good condition. In Latin America, for example, the effectiveness of such public infrastructure is only about 74% of that of industrialized countries. Low effectiveness imposes a cost on these countries in terms of forgone output. This paper develops a general–equilibrium model to study the long–run consequences of ineffective infrastructure. The model is solved numerically using parameters from seven Latin American countries. Results show that the long run penalty of ineffective infrastructure is about 40% of steady–state real GDP per capita. Raising effectiveness is shown to have sizable positive effects on income per capita, private investment, consumption, and welfare. Nevertheless, policymakers instead usually emphasize building new infrastructure. If effectiveness is low in the existing infrastructure network, new infrastructure investments can negatively affect per–capita income, private investment, consumption, and welfare.     

美、英、日三国经济发达阶段服务业发展及其动因定量分析

通过投入产出法计量模型,对美国、英国、日本三国经济发达阶段服务业和生产者服务业发展,进行了历史数据的定量分析。分析表明,在所考察的期间内,服务业增加值占GDP比重随时间序列而不断提高;以服务业中间需求率为判据,虽然呈现出国别差异,但三国消费者服务业比重各年份均高于生产者服务业比重,服务业中间需求率最高未超过45%;生产者服务业增加值呈现出不断提高的趋势,但其提高幅度低于服务业增加值提高幅度。由此得出推论:进入经济发达阶段,三国服务业发展的主要动因不是生产者服务业的发展,而是最终消费者服务业的发展。     

Transportation capital and its effects on the U.S. economy: A general equilibrium approach

We analyze the effect of the US transportation system on economic activity by building a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with a taxpayer-funded transportation capital stock. We highlight stark differences between the positive welfare effects of additional infrastructure spending in the long run, and its potentially negative effects when we account for the large transition (time and delay) costs to build. We also quantify large differences between the effects of additional infrastructure spending and efficient transportation policies, such as congestion pricing and eliminating laws that artificially inflate input prices, concluding that taxpayer-funded transportation improvements that increase GDP significantly may produce smaller welfare gains than efficient policies that increase GDP modestly.     

Services sector and economic growth in India

This study examines the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic relationship between services sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and between services and nonservices sectors in India. The model is estimated using the optimal single-equation and the maximum-likelihood system estimators. All the estimators consistently suggest the cointegrating relationship between services sector and GDP as well as between services and nonservices sectors. The estimates of long-run elasticity parameters are statistically significant and dimensionally consistent across the estimators. The conventional Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and the new CUSUM and Moving Sum (MOSUM) tests suggest the stability of the equilibrium residuals and reinforce the cointegrating relationship between the model series. The error correction model provides some support for unidirectional Granger-causality from services sector to GDP. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses instead suggest the bidirectional causality between services sector and GDP and between services and nonservices sectors. The stable growth of services sector is essentially crucial to absorb the adverse effects of exogenous weather shocks in agriculture and industry and provide resilience to the economy.     

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Business Services Industry

Abstract

This report aims to identify the determinant factors of FDI in the business services industry by examining 20 variables and their impacts on attracting foreign investment in 33 sample countries plus Hong Kong. The results of this study indicate that system-related factor conditions and demand conditions have a strong correlation to FDI. Among the variables under system-related factor conditions, four (bribery and corruption, transparency, intellectual property rights (IPR), and ease of doing business) greatly influence the amount of FDI in the business services industry. Among the variables under demand conditions, three (the cost of living index, office rent, and GDP) are key. At the same time, this paper concludes that the aforementioned factors influence not only the business services sector, but the manufacturing industry's FDI as well. Another main finding of this paper is that the FDI in the business services industry is more frequently found in more developed economies. For the market seeking and efficiency-seeking FDI, the quality of system-related factor conditions and the size of GDP are of particular importance for FDI in the business services industry.     

辽宁省互联网发展空间差异及其变化

多尺度上互联网发展空间差异及其影响因素研究是网络地理的前沿问题之一,国内外研究主要集中在宏观尺度上。文章以辽宁省为例,探讨中观尺度上互联网用户分布及空间特征,分析了互联网普及率区域差异及其变化,应用多元回归模型分析了2000年至2003年辽宁省互联网普及率区域差异的主要影响因素。研究表明,辽宁省互联网发展具有极强的地域集中性和显著的城乡差异性;并且随着互联网发展水平的提高,区域差异的影响因素发生了显著变化。区域对外开放程度、信息基础设施、人口素质、经济发展水平等方面的因素起主导作用,而区域非农化水平、地理区位因素则未对辽宁省互联网发展的区域差异产生较大影响。     

Human Fallibility, Complementarity, and Fiscal Decentralization

This paper examines economic growth properties under alternative fiscal organizations when a bureau's decisions are fallible. A country consists of J jurisdictions, which need a public service. In a centralized government, one authority decides on services in every jurisdiction. In a decentralized government, J authorities are in charge of each public service. An authority can have high ability or low ability, and an authority with high ability draws a good project with higher probability. We first show that the decentralized government provides the same average quality of public services, with lower variance, than does the centralized government. We then apply this result to an economic growth model where the value of the Solow residual is a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function of public services. We show that there is a critical value of the degree of complementarity below which fiscal decentralization is more desirable than fiscal centralization for an expected economic growth, and the decentralized government has a lower variance of GDP growth.     

Causal relationship between construction investment policy and economic growth in Turkey

The construction industry in countries experiencing severe economic crisis has vital importance to get out of stagnation because of its direct relations with 200 different sectors. In this study, the relationship between the construction growth data (infrastructure, building and residential (public), building and residential (private) investment) and gross domestic product (GDP) is examined for Turkey. To this end, Engle–Granger cointegration, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality tests were applied in order to determine the aforementioned relation. It has been found that the infrastructure and building–residential investments have direct relations with the GDP and have causality effects.     

Is PMI Useful in Quarterly GDP Growth Forecasts for India? An Exploratory Note

This paper examines the relationship between India’s quarterly overall GDP, manufacturing GDP and services GDP and the corresponding monthly data on overall manufacturing and services PMI for the period January 2006 to July 2014. The objective is to see if the two overall PMIs are related to the level and quarterly growth rate of overall GDP and its chosen components. Considering the quarterly time series nature of the data set, the HEGY equation of Hylleberg et al. (J Econom 44:215–238, 1990) extended by adding the PMI variables as exogenous regressors is used as the regression mode to relate a GDP level/growth rate variable to the two overall PMI variables. The results show that the three GDP level variables, but none of the GDP growth rate variables, have significant positive correlation with services PMI, but not with manufacturing PMI. Finally, the marginal effect of services PMI on manufacturing GDP level is found to be the largest, followed by that for overall GDP level and services GDP level.

     

Causal relationship between apparel exports and macroeconomic factors

Apparel exports make a significant contribution to economic growth in major apparel exporting economies such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between apparel export growth and its determinants such as GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and labour productivity using panel data from 11 major apparel exporting countries for the period 1996 to 2013. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium association among the variables and reveal that GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, FDI, and labour productivity have a significant positive influence on apparel export growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non-causality test results suggest that GDP growth, infrastructure and labour productivity contribute to apparel export growth in the short-run. These findings have several policy implications for the governments of the countries under study.     

Oil prices,growth, and remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council

How does a decline in oil prices and its impacts on growth affect remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries? This paper carries out an empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices, oil‐ and non‐oil GDP, and remittances outflows from the GCC. The findings of our paper are three folds. First, we find that non‐oil GDP is a key determinant of remittance outflows and that oil GDP is a significant driver of non‐oil GDP in the GCC only in the long term. Second, we document that historically oil prices and remittances tend to broadly move in the same direction but that remittances have been much less volatile than oil prices. An analysis of the past large oil price declines shows that remittance flows to major remittance recipients in Mashreq, Pakistan, and Yemen fell only modestly following large declines in oil prices and recovered quickly in line with oil prices. Finally, we estimate the elasticity of remittance outflows with respect to non‐oil GDP in the GCC using various techniques. Estimates of short‐term elasticity vary between 0.5 and 0.8, while estimates of long‐term elasticity vary between 0.6 and 1.1. We find that construction and government services are two non‐oil GDP components that are strongly associated with remittance outflows.     

How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China

China strongly restricts rural–urban migration, resulting in a well acknowledged surplus of labor in agriculture. But migration is also restricted within sectors. This paper argues that these intra-sector restrictions lead to insufficient agglomeration of economic activity in both the rural industrial and urban sectors, with resulting first order losses in GDP. For urban areas the paper estimates a city productivity relationship, based on city GDP numbers. The effects of access, educational attainment, FDI, and public infrastructure on productivity are estimated. Given these, worker productivity is shown to be an inverted U-shape function of city employment, with the peak point shifting out as industrial composition moves from manufacturing to services, as predicted by urban theory. As far as we know this is the first paper to actually estimate the relationship between output per worker and city scale for any country. The majority of Chinese cities are shown to be potentially undersized—below the lower bound on the 95% confidence interval about the size where their output per worker peaks. The paper calculates the large gains from increased agglomeration in both the rural industrial and urban sectors.     

Fiscal policy, long‐run growth, and welfare in a stock‐flow model of public goods

Abstract.  We introduce public capital and public services as inputs in an endogenous growth model. We show that the growth rate depends on the apportionment of tax revenues between the accumulation of public capital and the provision of public services. When public spending is financed by proportional income taxes, the growth rate, the level of public spending as a proportion of GDP, the level of investment in public capital as a proportion of total public spending, and the level of private investment as a proportion of total private spending all are lower in the equilibrium outcome than in the optimal outcome. JEL classification: E62, O40     

Hidden in Plain Sight: Unpaid Household Services and the Politics of GDP Measurement

ABSTRACT

Gross domestic product (GDP) is one of the world’s most influential and widely cited economic indicators. However, outside of the industrialised, market-based context in which the indicator was first designed, GDP measurement suffers from a number of biases and blind spots. The article zooms in on one of these: the exclusion of unpaid household services from the production boundary of the System of National Accounts, the international standard underpinning GDP methodology. While GDP has expanded over time to include activities as diverse as financial services and the informal sector, the treatment of unpaid household services has remained unchanged. Why is this? I find that staff in the statistical departments of international organisations such the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and World Bank have a tremendous degree of agency in the governance of GDP. While these statisticians are aware of and engage with criticisms, they reject the inclusion of unpaid household services based on shared professional norms and economic ideas.