条件固定效应回归的活动目的地选择模型——一个案例研究

本文以城市居民出行目的地选择为研究对象,建立条件固定效应回归（C—Logit）目的地选择模型。结合我国某城市交通小区城市居民日出行数据对模型进行标定求解,并描述目的地选择预测流程,解释了影响居民出行目的地选择的诸多因素。对预测结果进行分析,得到较高的目的地选择预测精度,为从非集计层面研究城市居民出行目的地选择提供了新的思路。     

Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures

We analyse several limited dependent variable models explaining the budget share that Dutch families spend on vacations. To take account of the substantial number of zero shares, two types of models are used. The first is the single-equation censored regression model. We estimate and test several parametric and semi-parametric extensions of the Tobit model. Second, we consider two-equation models, in which the participation decision and the decision on the amount to spend are treated separately. The first decision is modelled as a binary choice model; the second as a conditional regression. We estimate and test parametric and semi-parametric specifications.     

高校寒暑假功能解析及学期制度变革刍议

文章考察了寒暑假的由来,解析了寒暑假的实质和意义,重点阐释了高校寒暑假在休养调整、实践教育、补习提高、拓展服务四个方面的功能,强调高校要充分利用寒暑假,为培养创新型、复合型和应用型人才服务。同时结合高校人才培养实际,探讨了学期和假期制度变革的可能,分析"三学期制"的作用和优势,建议各地要根据实际,在学分制基础上统筹考虑学校教学、科研和社会服务等因素来设计学校假期。     

Microeconometric models of tourists'' destination choice

The focus of this paper is on the microeconometric analysis of spatial choice in a cross section. Nested multinomial logit models are used to analyze the determinants of individual choice among destinations and vacation activities. Cramer and Ridder's likelihood ratio test for pooled alternatives in multinomial logit models is sequentially applied in order to determine the adequate aggregation level of the mutually exclusive alternatives in the choice set. The specification test suggested by Chesher and Santos Silva (1992) is used to investigate whether or not the IIA proposition is fulfilled within the assumed choice subsets.     

Models of stochastic choice and decision theories: why both are important for analyzing decisions

We select a menu of seven popular decision theories and embed each theory in five models of stochastic choice, including tremble, Fechner and random utility model. We find that the estimated parameters of decision theories differ significantly when theories are combined with different models. Depending on the selected model of stochastic choice we obtain different rankings of decision theories with regard to their goodness of fit to the data. The fit of all analyzed decision theories improves significantly when they are embedded in a Fechner model of heteroscedastic truncated errors or a random utility model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants of the Choice of Migration Destination*

This paper examines migrants’ choice of destination conditional on migration. The study uses data from two rounds of Nepal Living Standard Surveys and a Population Census and examine how the choice of a migration destination is influenced by various covariates, including income differentials across possible destinations. We find that migrants move primarily to nearby, high population density areas where many people share their language and ethnic background. Better access to amenities is significant as well. Differentials in average income across destination districts are significant in univariate comparisons but not once we control for other covariates. Differentials in consumption expenditures are statistically significant but smaller in magnitude than other determinants. It is differentials in absolute, not relative, consumption between destination districts that are correlated with the destination of work migrants. Except for the latter, results are robust to different specifications and datasets.     

开发休闲度假旅游的可行性探析——以四川攀西地区为例

在新的历史背景和经济条件下,发展休闲度假旅游已成为旅游产业转型过程中的必然选择和主要旋律。攀西地区应抓住这一机遇,充分发挥其旅游资源优势,把休闲度假旅游培育成本地区经济发展新的增长点,使之成为推动攀西地区经济发展的又一动力。本文概括地分析了攀西地区开发休闲度假旅游的条件、机遇和面临的困难,据此提出了建立规范有序的旅游投资机制和信用平台、运用多种手段营造攀西休闲度假旅游开发氛围、尽快解决制约旅游的瓶颈交通等对策措施。     

The effect of property taxes on vacation home growth rates: Evidence from Michigan

The Tiebout model assumes that individuals sort to the jurisdiction which best matches their fiscal preferences. However, there is a paucity of reliable estimates for the impact of tax changes on household mobility. We utilize a state mandated school finance reform and temporal differences in vacation home densities to provide a unique test of this fundamental Tiebout assumption. The results show that changes in property taxes explain a significant amount of the variation in vacation home growth; a 3–4 mil decrease in property tax rates is associated with an increase of approximately one vacation home per square kilometer.     

Household tenure choice and migration

A model of the joint tenure choice and migration decision is estimated. Unlike previous work that has considered each decision separately or examined the premigration tenure status choice jointly with the migration decision, this analysis addresses change in tenure status as well. The empirical findings indicate that variables often thought to affect either or both tenure status of the residence location change decision have offsetting or augmenting effects on their joint probabilities which are masked if the decisions are examined independently.     

A model of stochastic choice from lists

We study stochastic choice from lists. All lists present the same set of alternatives albeit in different orders. Faced with a list, the decision maker makes her choice in two stages. In the first stage she searches through the list till she sees $k$ alternatives. In the second stage she chooses from the alternatives she has seen. Both $k$ and the choice rule governing her second stage behavior are random. We show that the underlying primitives of our model are revealed by the decision maker’s choice frequencies from lists. We characterize the model and two of its special cases. In the first special case the decision maker deterministically chooses the best observed alternative according to a given preference. In the second, the decision maker maximizes random preferences.     

The optimal choice of internal decision‐making structures in a network industry: A multiproduct monopoly case

Focusing on the role of network compatibility effects between products of a multiproduct monopoly and on the form of consumer expectation for network sizes, we consider the optimal choice of internal decision‐making structures, that is, centralization and decentralization, and its welfare effect in a network industry. We demonstrate that if the degree of network compatibility effects is sufficiently large, the decentralized decision making is socially optimal. However, in the case of consumer ex post expectations, it is optimal for the firm's owners to choose the centralized decision making. We apply the model to the cases of price‐setting games, complementary products, and negative network externalities to examine the optimal choice of internal decision‐making structures.     

多层次模糊综合评判法在企业战略选择中的应用

企业战略选择是个复杂的多层次的决策问题,传统的定性方法已不能很好的满足需要。采用模糊决策方法,建立综合评判的企业战略选择模糊决策模型,综合考量评价系统中的各定性和定量指标,并结合实例验证了该方法的有效性。     

Instrument Choice: The Demand for Mortgages in Canada

This paper is directed at understanding the factors which caused mortgage demand to fluctuate to the degree witnessed in the 1980s. We model the mortgage choice decision as involving simultaneous options on both the term and the amortization choice, by cost minimizing risk averse borrowers. The model is estimated using a bivariate ordered probit methodology. An extensive database containing details on the financial and demographic characteristics of households is used. We find that, contrary to the dominant model of mortgage demand, borrowers react to market conditions in a risk averse and cost minimizing manner.     

游轮度假者感知价值的影响因素研究

对于游轮度假这种将旅行与游览体验结合在一起的旅游活动,研究游轮服务感知价值的影响因素,显得尤为重要。在游轮度假感知价值评价模型中,多种因素会影响到度假者的满意程度,更具影响力的却是那些与度假者个体相关的情感因素。其中新奇、享乐和控制这三个情感因素在度假者游轮体验的价值感知中起着决定性作用,而满意度是情感因素与感知价值间的中间因素,起调整作用。     

Modelling the long-term effects of transport and land use policies on industrial locational behaviour: A discrete choice model system

This paper describes a disaggregate behavioural model system developed for forecasting industrial locations. It is structured basically in terms of a nested logit model, covering relocation decisions, area-wide locational choices and local locational choices together with shipment destination choices. Several techniques are developed to overcome the difficulties in the application of discrete choice models to spatial problems. The model system was calibrated for the Nagoya metropolitan area in Japan and its validity was tested using another data set. It allows analysis of the effects of transport and land use policies not only by zone but also by firms of different attributes such as sector and capital size.     

Modeling the day-of-the-week shopping activity and travel patterns

This research develops models that extend existing multi-day analyses of shopping activity patterns. The main hypothesis is that shopping activity choice behavior varies, depending on the day of the week. Using a nested logit model structure, this hypothesis is tested by developing models of daily activity choice behavior for each day of the week. In doing so, household activity choice behavior is represented by three stages, with a shopping activity participation decision as the highest stage, the scheduling decision as the next lower stage, and the number of shopping stops as the lowest stage. Empirical results confirm the nested logit model structure hypothesized in this study. Furthermore, it is found that major distinctions in the daily utility functions take place between the weekday and weekend models. However, differences among weekday models are also observed. This indicates that there appear to be behavioral differences even among weekdays although households are exposed to the same set of temporal constraints.     

Evacuation based on spatio-temporal resilience with variable traffic demand

The efficient evacuation of people from dangerous areas is a key objective of emergency management. However, many emergencies give little to no advanced warning, leading to spontaneous evacuation with no time for planning or management. For large emergencies, destinations become less certain, with traffic demand imbalanced and concentrated on a few oversaturated routes familiar to evacuees. Ultimately, this leads to rapid congestion and delay on some routes, while others remain barely used, extending clearance times with an accumulating population at risk. In this study we address these issues through incorporating spatio-temporal traffic resilience dynamics into a destination choice model utilizing the available capacity of the overall network. We validate our model through a post-concert egress event. The results suggest that our method can reduce total egress times and average travel time by 20%–43% over the no-guidance condition. Our method can be used to estimate and quantify emergency conditions to optimally guide destinations and routing choice for evacuees and/or autonomously moving vehicles during evacuations.     

电力投资决策的期权博弈模型及其发展评述

电力投资决策对于电力企业甚至电力行业的发展有着举足轻重的作用,电力企业的投资选择是在外部环境竞争复杂性和不确定性的约束下进行的,需要研究复杂竞争环境和不确定因素条件下的投资决策方法。本文以电力投资决策模型分析入手,总结了电力投资决策模型的发展过程,探讨了电力投资的期权博弈模型发展过程、研究重点、缺陷、及发展方向,展示了电力投资决策期权博弈理论的发展脉络和思考重点。实践证明,该方法不仅能够对电力投资项目进行更加科学的而评估,还能够为电力行业的发展做出更加科学合理的决策。     

General practitioners' choice of referral destination: A probit analysis

Following the major reforms of the UK health service in 1990, general practitioners (primary care physicians) have been able to purchase specialist care from any hospital they choose. To date, little research has been conducted with respect to the decision process by which such hospitals are chosen. Based on the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in central England and using probit analysis, the significant arguments in practitioners' decision functions are identified. Locality and clinical variables emerge as being considerably more important than price in determining referral destination.