Modeling and supporting task-oriented group processes: Purposeful complex adaptive systems and Evolutionary Systems Design

Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) is a universal general problem solving, formal modeling, design framework for purposeful complex adaptive systems (PCAS) and processes, i.e., task-oriented group processes. These processes constitute policy making, group decision, negotiation, and multiagent problem solving with human and/or artificial agents. ESD is also a framework for computer group support systems (GSS) that support these processes. The ESD general framework can be applied to define and solve specific problems. In this article the ESD framework is presented and illustrated by example. The article provides background for ESD computer implementations discussed in two other related articles (Lewis and Shakun 1996; Bui and Shakun 1996).     

Inflation-induced adaptive behavior

Periods of rapidly rising prices are seen by many as cyclical and pervasive phenomena in modern day economic systems. When rapid price increases occur, they are likely to induce adaptive behavior on the part of consumers. This article reports on a study seeking to analyze consumer inflation-induced adaptive behavior as it relates to three food-related consumer activities–food buying, preparation, and consumption. Results indicate that consumers, in general, attempt to adjust to the changing economic environment in several ways: they exercise more care and planning in food shopping, are more price sensitive and price conscious, are willing to sacrifice convenience but not quality, and try to maintain their usual level of food consumption and food habits. Results also indicate that inflation leads to greater adaptive behavior on the part of lower income consumers.     

Brand attachment and customer citizenship behaviors

Service brand attachment has emerged as a growing body of research. Although previous studies have examined the relationship between brand attachment and customer behaviors, the mechanism underlying this relationship remains unknown, particularly in a service context. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between brand attachment and customer citizenship behaviors and to clarify the role of perceived value among regular customers of international hotel brands in Taiwan. To examine this model, confirmatory factor analysis was employed to analyze survey data from 299 hotel customers, the results of which indicated that perceived value completely mediated the relationship between brand attachment and customer citizenship behaviors. Therefore, perceived value is the mechanism that explains how service brand attachment is associated with customer citizenship behaviors. These results demonstrate the importance of perceived value and imply that service managers should strengthen customers’ perceived value of service brands to enhance customer citizenship behaviors.     

Computer-based adaptive testing in 1991

Tests, questionnaires, and inventories can advantageously be administered by computer. The use of item response theory (IRT) is described, and its application to making the instruments adaptive. Practical aspects of adaptive tests are discussed, including timing and safeguarding. Adjustments can be made for mastery tests. More elaborate partial-credit models are needed for items with more than two response alternatives.     

Semi-Supervised Response Modeling

Response modeling is concerned with identifying potential customers who are likely to purchase a promoted product, based on customers' demographic and behavioral data. Constructing a response model requires a preliminary campaign result database. Customers who responded to the campaign are labeled as respondents while those who did not are labeled as non-respondents. Those customers who were not chosen for the preliminary campaign do not have labels, and thus are called unlabeled. Then, using only those labeled customer data, a classification model is built in the supervised learning framework to predict all existing customers. However, often in response modeling, only a small part of customers are labeled, and thus available for model building, while a large number of unlabeled data may give valuable information. As a method to exploit the unlabeled data, we introduce semi-supervised learning to the interactive marketing community. A case study on the CoIL Challenge 2000 and the Direct Marketing Educational Foundation data sets shows that the transductive support vector machine, one of widely used semi-supervised models, can identify more respondents than conventional supervised models, especially when a small number of data are labeled. Semi-supervised learning is a viable alternative and merits further investigation.     

Modeling Newspaper Advertising

Mathematical modeling is recognized as a powerful tool for planning business operations. The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical model for simulating a newspaper financial system. The model was developed from actual newspaper industry data and includes the effects of advertising and circulation. The use of the model to predict advertising linage as a function of population, income and advertising rate is included in the discussion.     

Multiagent Enterprise Modeling

In this article, we study the dynamics of business processes and interactions between business units in an enterprise, and to this end, we developed a framework for enterprise modeling using the process hierarchy approach. We developed and implemented a multiagent information system (MAIS) for the supply chain network for capturing both the structure and the processes of an enterprise. The MAIS is implemented on the Swarm simulation platform and models the order fulfillment process (OFP) as one of the core tasks of supply chain networks. In addition to modeling the interactions in the OFP, the MAIS is also used as a simulation testbed to experiment with different strategies to improve the performance of the OFP.     

Bounded Rationality Modeling

This paper deals with bounded rationality as a way to describe behavior and focuses on the question of how to build such boundedly rational models. The first part is a discussion of the reasons why such models are needed and on the situations in which they can be regarded as more particularly useful. The second part examines three strategies of research towards bounded rationality modeling which have emerged in the last ten years and weights them. The concluding remarks offer a first link between the respective typologies of strategies and of situations and calls for additional experimental work by marketing scientists and economists together.     

A comparison of Korean and American gift-giving behaviors

In an effort to understand diverse, multicultural consumer behavior, this study compares Korean and American gift-giving behavior and its related values. This study aims to illustrate how gift-giving behavior works and differs across cultural values; specifically, in the Confucian collectivistic nature of the Far East, Korea, and the individualistic nature of the West, America. Focus groups and in-depth interviews are conducted for initial issue exploration, and mail surveys are then utilized for testing the proposed hypotheses. Results reveal Confucian collectivistic and individualistic values as significant in explaining differences in cross-cultural gift giving. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Hong Kong as a complex adaptive system

In this contribution, the post-war economic development of Hong Kong is considered from a complexity theory perspective. It is argued that over the last 50 years Hong Kong has displayed many of the signature qualities of a complex adaptive system in its transformation from dusty entrepot port to the secondwealthiest Asian economy. Insights from theories of complexity are used to shed light on a range of empirical phenomena. In contrast with the orthodox laissez faire account of Hong Kong's ascendancy, a complexity based explanation can be used to account for the presence of endogenously induced systemic disruptions and does not discount the role of external intervention in those areas of the economy prone to escalating feedback.     

Modeling NABE Members Compensation

NABE has been regularly conducting a salary survey of its members for more than 20 years. More sophisticated statistical analysis of the salary survey, however, has been performed infrequently. The regression equation for NABE members’ total compensation reported here and implemented on the NABE website provides a tool to estimate compensation as a function of the characteristics measured in the NABE Salary Survey. The significant explanatory variables, functional form, and goodness of fit are consistent with both earlier research on NABE members’ compensation and the more general literature. Since there are many characteristics that influence compensation that are not measured in the NABE Salary Survey —such as work effort, communications and other job-related skills, and good luck —the equation’s results should not be viewed as a precise estimate of what any one person “should” be paid. But if compensation is closely related to marginal value product, then the regression results provide an indication of what characteristics make NABE members valuable to their employers. JEL Classification M210, J310     

The quality of market-oriented behaviors: Formative index construction

Current measures of market orientation do not systematically capture the quality of market-oriented behaviors [MOBs] (Jaworski BJ, Kohli AK. Market orientation: review, refinement, roadmap. Journal of Market Focused Management 1996;1[2]:119-135). In a bid to address this issue, the authors develop formative indices of the key factors underlying market-oriented behavior quality, and empirically validate the indices using survey data from a sample of 253 marketing managers. Findings suggest that optimal market-oriented behavior involves many distinct activities, such as speed and formalization of information generation, dissemination and response, quantity of information generated, comprehensive information dissemination, and extent of information use, to name a few. For researchers, the findings expand the platform from which to generate fresh understanding of MOBs' antecedents and consequences. The indices also have diagnostic capabilities which can help managers understand how to improve the quality of market orientation within the firm.     

Attention to social comparison information and brand avoidance behaviors

This research links brand avoidance behaviors to attention to social comparison information (ATSCI). We posit that high (vs low) ATSCI consumers will suffer from more social-evaluative uncertainty, i.e., more uncertainty regarding others’ reactions to their brand choices. To alleviate this problem, high ATSCI consumers will avoid distinctive or conspicuous brands and brand icons that might draw the attention of others, playing safe in their brand choices, rather than risking social disapproval. Two preliminary studies provide support for the theoretical assumptions, confirming that ATSCI is positively associated with brand consciousness, brand social-evaluative uncertainty, and brand avoidance motivated by social-evaluative concerns. Study 1 examines brand identification and shows that although high and low ATSCI consumers identify themselves with equally prestigious brands, the former avoid identifying with distinctive brands. Study 2 demonstrates that unlike their low ATSCI counterparts, high ATSCI consumers avoid conspicuous brand logos even in the case of highly prestigious brands.     

Service worker role in encouraging customer organizational citizenship behaviors

Assessment of the role of the individual service worker in encouraging customer organizational citizenship behaviors (customer OCBs) is the primary focus of this paper. The researchers investigate this topic empirically across three service contexts. Customer OCBs are voluntary, outside of the customer's required role for service delivery, which provide help and assistance and are conducive to effective organizational functioning. In this paper, commitment to the service worker is the strongest predictor of customer OCBs. Further, personal loyalty to the service worker serves as a partial mediator of the effects of perceived benevolence of the service worker and commitment to the service worker on customer OCBs. Finally, theoretical, managerial and future research implications are included.     

Investigating mediators between corporate reputation and customer citizenship behaviors

Recent corporate reputation research focuses on customers as an important stakeholder group for whom firm reputation matters. The authors hypothesize that customer-based corporate reputation (CBR) may affect customer citizenship behaviors (CCB) and that both commitment and loyalty mediate the CBR-CCB relationship. The tests of the hypotheses use a sample of 583 service customers who evaluate the reputation of service firms. These results suggest that commitment and loyalty mediate the relationship between CBR and one type of CCB, that is, helping the company. The authors discuss the implications for marketing research and practice.     

Corporate charitable contributions: business award winners' giving behaviors

We investigate corporate giving behaviors of prestigious business award winners in Korea. In particular, we examine whether firms strategically use corporate giving to enhance corporate reputation. We find that (1) award winners generally make more charitable contributions than nonwinners prior to winning awards and maintain significant charitable contributions after winning awards; (2) multiple award winners make even more charitable contributions than single‐award winners; and (3) an increase in charitable contributions does not raise the probability of winning awards in the year after the increase. The results suggest that CEOs of award‐winning firms do not use corporate giving opportunistically to enhance their status and reputation. Rather, significant charitable contributions by award winners may be indicative of a sound business strategy to maximize long‐term firm value.     

Modeling the Caspian Sea Negotiations

The objective of this study is to identify techniques for predicting the outcome of a negotiation and then apply them to the current negotiations over the legal status of the Caspian Sea, which has been in dispute since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The five coastal states—Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan—entered negotiations in 1993, but have not yet agreed on who owns the waters or the oil and natural gas beneath them. We identify the five well-defined options for resolving the dispute and then discuss the states’ preferences regarding these options. We apply some well-known social choice rules to find the “socially optimal” resolution. Then we review several versions of Fallback Bargaining, which aims to minimize the maximum dissatisfaction of the bargainers, and apply them to the dispute. Finally, we represent the dispute in financial terms and apply several well-known bankruptcy procedures, which are fair division methods for settling monetary claims. We end with some suggestions on how the value of the Caspian seabed resources could be allocated among the five Caspian states.