Rational habit formation

This paper discusses consumer demand under rational habit formation. If consumer tastes change endogenously through habit stocks depending on past consumption, the rational consumer will make allowance of the future habit forming effects of current consumption. A model with rational habit formation is made formally equivalent to an intertemporal consumer model without habit formation by redefining the cost of consumption and wealth. The cost of consumption is obtained by adding the cost of future induced consumption to the rental price of the commodity. The extended wealth concept is obtained by subtracting the cost of the initial stocks of habits and the cost of future physically necessary consumption from wealth. The paper also investigates the implication of rational habit formation for constructing one period cost of living indices.     

Multiplicative habit formation and consumption: A note

A multiplicative form of the habit term in the utility function has some undesirable properties if the habit function is itself still additive (Wendner, 2003). A geometric form for the way the stock of habit accumulates can resolve these shortcomings.     

Growth, habit formation, and catching-up with the Joneses

When habits are introduced multiplicatively in a capital accumulation model, the consumers’ objective function might fail to be concave. In this paper, we provide conditions aimed at guaranteeing the existence of interior solutions to the consumers’ problem. We also characterize the equilibrium path of two growth models with multiplicative habits: the internal habit formation model, where individual habits coincide with own past consumption, and the external habit formation (or catching-up with the Joneses) model, where habits arise from the average past consumption in the economy. We show that the introduction of external habits makes the equilibrium path inefficient. We characterize in this context the optimal tax policy.     

Saving and habit formation: evidence from Dutch panel data

This paper focuses on the role of habit formation in individual preferences. In this study, the model of Alessie and Lusardi (Econ Lett 55:103–108, 1997) and its extension by Guariglia and Rossi (Oxf Econ Pap 54:1–19, 2002) are considered. Our empirical specifications are based on their closed-form solutions, where current saving is expressed as a function of lagged saving and other regressors. In our study, we use a longitudinal data set from the Netherlands that allows us to disentangle the role of habit formation from unobserved heterogeneity. Contrary to most other studies using survey data, we find evidence in favor of habit formation. However, the magnitude of the habit formation coefficient is rather small. Income uncertainty seems to affect saving behavior of Dutch households.     

Capital utilization and habit formation in a small open economy model

Abstract.  This paper shows the effects of endogenous capital utilization and habit formation in consumption on the predictions of a small open economy model calibrated to Canada. Capital utilization improves the fit of the model by increasing the volatility of output, investment, and hours worked, while habit formation improves the fit of the model by improving the dynamic properties of consumption and the current account. It is also shown that while shocks to the world interest rate sometimes improve the fit of the baseline model, they do not improve the fit of the model with capital utilization and habit formation. JEL classification: E32, F32     

Money, capital, and real liquidity effects with habit formation

Abstract.  The money in utility model is reconsidered in the presence of endogenous labour and habits. With standard assumptions about preferences and a policy rule that sets the nominal interest rate by adjusting the growth rate of money, the model exhibits superneutrality in the steady state. Nevertheless, habits give rise to real liquidity effects in the short run. After an increase in the nominal interest rate, employment falls, resulting in a fall in capital accumulation and in the short‐ and long‐term real interest rates. The adjustment of the capital stock is non‐monotonic. Employment and the short‐ and long‐term real interest rates may also adjust non‐monotonically. JEL classification: E22, E52, E58     

Intertemporal substitution in import demand and the role of habit formation: an application of Euler equation approach for Pakistan

Introduction

The study examines the importance of intertemporal substitution in import demand considering the role of habit formation. A two-goods version of the permanent income model is used in which time-non-separability in consumers’s preferences is assumed. The model is estimated using annual data for Pakistan at disaggregated level covering the period from 1977 to 2017.

Objectives

The objective of the study is to estimate elasticities of substitution along with parameters of habit formation for consumption goods at a disaggregated level.

Method

The study employs co-integration for the estimation of parameters of elasticities of substitution and generalized method of moments (GMM) for the estimation of the parameters of habit formation from Euler equations.

Findings

The estimates of intertempral elasticity of substitution suggest that the nature of commodity group (necessity/luxury) plays an important role when consumers are making intertemporal choices. Moreover, the study finds that intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than intertempral elasticity of substitution in almost all cases in Pakistan, suggesting that imported and domestic goods are best described as substitutes in Edgeworth-Pareto sense. In addition, the inclusion of habit formation delivers results with plausible signs and the habit formation process seems significant for certain commodity groups including tea, beverages, tobacco products and drugs.

Conclusion

The study concludes that there is a possibility of crowding out effect on domestic consumption and the depreciation of local currency may improve Pakistan’s balance of trade.

     

Cost-of-living indexes and demographic change

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), although not without problems, is the most often used mechanism for adjusting contracts for cost-of-living changes in the US. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics lists several problems associated with using the CPI as a cost-of-living index where the proportion of 2-worker families is increasing, population is shifting, and work week hours are changing. This study shows how to compute cost-of-living indexes which are inexpensive to update, use less restrictive assumptions about consumer preferences, do not require statistical estimation, and handle the problem of increasing numbers of families where both the husband and wife work. This study attempts to how widely in fact the CPI varies with alternative true cost-of-living varies with alternative true cost-of-living indexes although in the end this de facto cost-of-living measure holds up quite well. In times of severe price inflation people change their preferences by substitution, necessitating a flexible cost-of-living index that accounts for this fundamental economic behavior.     

Methodological individualism: True and false

I apply Hayek’s distinction between ‘true’ and ‘false’ individualism to methodological individualism. Hayek traced ‘false’ individualism to Cartesian rationalism; Hayek’s rejection of Mises’ praxeology was due to its rationalist underpinnings. The first half of this paper identifies praxeology’s foundational philosophical concepts, emphasising their Cartesian nature, and illustrates how together they constitute a case for methodological individualism: intuition and deduction; reductionism; judgement; dualism. In the second half of this paper, I draw upon philosophy and cognitive science to articulate ‘Hayekian’ (N.B. not Hayek’s) alternatives to these Cartesian concepts. The Hayekian alternative allows a ‘gestalt switch’ from the individual- to the system-level perspective. I therefore suggest that methodological individualism is both true and false: true, in that economic phenomena are grounded in the actions of individuals; false, in that certain problems might be reconceived/discovered at the system-level. I finish by suggesting three avenues of research at system-level: optimisation; stigmergy; computational complexity.     

Interest-rate policy and rational expectations

The choice of monetary instrument under rational expectations is discussed in a general equilibrium model for the financial sector. It is shown that a supply rule leads to indeterminate asset prices, whereas the prices are determinate under an appropriately formulated interest-rate policy.     

Spanish diffusion indexes

We use the Stock-Watson diffusion index methodology to summarize the information contained in a wide set of monthly series (published in the Statistical Bulletin of the Bank of Spain) by means of a reduced number of factors. We find that the first two factors may be used as indicators of the core inflation and the business cycle dynamics of the Spanish economy, respectively. In addition, we study the effects of incorporating large information sets for the analysis of monetary policy. Finally, we show that forecasting prices and output with our factors outperforms other standard alternative forecasting procedures.JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37We are most grateful to Pilar Bengoechea, Ramón María-Dolores, and Javier Vallés for valuable comments. We would like to thank Gabriel Pérez-Quirós and two anonymous referees for constructive suggestions leading to improvements in the content and presentation of the paper. We however stand responsible for any remaining errors and omissions.     

An empirical analysis of habit and addiction to antibiotics

Because of bacterial resistance, current antibiotic consumption is reinforced by past use, and future utility is lower. The purpose of this article is to provide evidence on habit and addictive behavior toward antibiotics by exploring variations in the average consumption of antibiotics across 20 Italian regions. Using a balanced panel data set (2000–2009), we estimate myopic and rational addiction models, in which antibiotic consumption depends upon demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, the supply of health care in the community, antibiotic price, and the “capital stock” of endogenous bacterial resistance measured by past and future consumption. Our empirical evidence shows that past antibiotic consumption stimulates current consumption and is also consistent with the rational addiction hypothesis. The low price elasticity of antibiotic demand suggests that policy measures targeted at antibiotic co-payments may not be effective in controlling antibiotic consumption. There is scope for other policy interventions, such as incentives and information campaigns targeted at doctors.     

Injecting rational bubbles

This paper proves two theorems about economies with a finite number of infinitely lived agents who trade a complete set of one-period Arrow securities and several infinitely lived securities at each date, subject to short-sales constraints. The first theorem in the paper considers an equilibrium to an economy of this kind. It proves that there exists another economy with perturbed short-sales constraints in which there is an allocation-equivalent equilibrium in which asset prices have a bubble. The second theorem extends to the result to the case in short-sales constraints are endogenously determined in the sense of Alvarez and Jermann [Efficiency, equilibrium, and asset pricing with risk of default, Econometrica 68 (2000) 775-797].     

Building rational cooperation

Experiments have shown that people have a natural taste for cooperation. This paper takes a first step in understanding how formal and informal institutions might be designed to utilize these private tastes to facilitate more efficient economic interactions. We examine a twice-played prisoners’ dilemma in which the total of the stakes in the two periods is fixed, but the distribution of these stakes can be varied across periods. We verify experimentally that it is best to “start small,” reserving most of the stakes for the second period.     

Robust rational turnout

We show that equilibria of a class of participation games (Palfrey and Rosenthal in Public Choice 41(1):7–53, 1983; Journal of Public Economics 24(2):171–193, 1984) exhibit minimal heterogeneity of behavior so that players’ mixed strategies are summarized by at most two probabilities. We then establish that, except for a finite set of common costs of participation, these games are regular. Thus, equilibria of these voting games are robust to general payoff perturbations and survive in nearby games of incomplete information. Thanks to participants of the 2006 MPSA conference for comments on an early version.     

合理膳食与绿色消费

环境与健康，是当前人们最为关心的热门话题之一。我国目前人口近13亿，土地资源却十分有限，人均土地已临近国际粮农组织规定的警戒线；另一方面，近年来随着生活水平提高，我国患肥胖症人数逐年上升，高血压、高血脂、冠心病、中风等与饮食有关的疾病成为严重威胁人们健康的“头号杀手”，死亡人数、发病人数都已超过癌症。为此，我们应该从我国国情出发，积极探讨科学合理的饮食消费结构，从而求得合理膳食，实现绿色消费。绿色消费绿色消费是可持续发展思想在消费观念上的体现。要求在满足人们生产生活需要的同时，必须保护环境，保护人…     

Approximately rational consumer demand

Summary We define measures of violations of Slutsky symmetry and negative semidefiniteness and relate them to measures of revealed preference inconsistencies exhibited by nonoptimizing demand behavior. The degree of Slutsky asymmetry is shown to restrict the rate at which real income can rise everywhere along smooth loops in income and price space. The largest eigenvalue of the quadratic form of the Slutsky matrix is used to bound violations of the weak axiom. The sizes of the violations of either Slutsky condition are used to bound the distance between the given demand function and approximating functions that satisfy that Slutsky condition exactly.This paper was originally titled Approximate Slutsky Conditions. The authors thank W. Hildenbrand, L. Hurwicz, C. Le Van, W. Neuefeind, R. Pollak, M. K. Richter, W. Shafer and T. M. Stoker for helpful discussions and suggestions. The first author is an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation research fellow. His research was supported in part by NSF grant DMS 8514341 and a Presidential Young Investigator Award. This paper was completed while the first author was visiting the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute, Berkeley, and the second author was visiting the University of Bonn, supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft SFB 303 and by a SUNY Faculty Research Award. Both authors are grateful for their hosts' hospitality.     

Functional forms and habit effects in the US demand for coffee

Coffee remains the leading hot beverage consumed in the United States. The present study specifies for estimation an unrestrictive Box-Cox demand model (1957–87 data) and its nested forms, to provide more recent estimates and assess potential functional misspecification in past studies fitting a priori restrictive models; incorporates the (health trend) effects of sugar and orange juice and tests the compatibility of coffee demand data with the habit

formation hypothesis; and assesses implications of demand elasticity estimates for projected producer revenues and demand for imported coffee. Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Box-Cox model: automatically satisfy theoretical demand properties; support strongly incorporating habits and related beverage and sugar prices in coffee demand model; predict inelastic US coffee consumption to reduce per capita 24% and increase producer revenues 6.3% in 2000.