The effect of contemporaneous reserve accounting on the market for federal funds

This paper evaluates the effect of the transition from lagged to contemporaneous reserve accounting for the determination of bank reserve requirements through its impact on the market for Federal funds. The results indicate that increased target reserve uncertainty resulting from the implementation of the contemporaneous reserve accounting system (CRA) caused an initial increase in intraday Federal funds rate variance and daily interest rate differences. However, subsequent to a ‘learning’ period, intraday variance appears to be less pronounced and daily differentials appear to be narrower than under the previously used lagged reserve accounting system (LRA). These results are attributed to the lengthening of the accounting period from one to two weeks. Therefore, while not costless, the new system does not appear to have seriously disrupted the Federal funds market.     

The effects of shifts in monetary policy and reserve accounting regimes on bank reserve management behavior in the federal funds market

This paper looks at the effects on Fed fund rates and Fed fund purchasing behavior of large banks resulting from (i) the 1982 regime switch from non-borrowed to borrowed reserve targeting by the Fed and (ii) the 1984 switch from lagged to almost contemporaneous reserve accounting (CRA). Whether we analyse changes in the interest-rate or quantity dimensions, the shift in monetary policy targets appeared to have had a more profound effect on the market for bank reserves than the shift in reserve accounting regime. These results, therefore, tend to support the contention that a shift to CRA by itself will have little effect on bank reserve management behavior unless combined with its logical counterpart — a total reserves target.     

The Weekend Eurodollar Game

A growing number of large U.S. banks have used artificial Eurodollar transactions in connection with the heavier weighting of Fridays in the calculation of required reserves to significantly reduce the impact on them of that requirement. This reserve avoidance behavior bestows an unintended and inequitable benefit on those banks engaging in it, unnecessarily increases risks from credit exposures and potentially distorts money stock measures. The incentive for this activity and hence its practice can best be removed by paying interest on required reserves or weighting Fridays equally with all other business days in the reserve requirement calculations.     

存款准备金政策与货币供给

存款准备金政策通常被认为是中央银行调控货币供给的有效工具。但是,从理论和实践可以证明,这一政策工具对货币供给的影响是很有限的。在商业银行有充裕的超额准备金时,法定准备金比率的调整只改变商业银行的准备金构成,而不改变准备金的总额,因而对基础货币和货币乘数都没有影响,或影响都很小;而当商业银行没有超额准备金或只有很少超额准备金时,法定准备金比率的上调将使准备金总额增加,从而使货币乘数缩小,但使基础货币增加。于是,货币乘数缩小对货币供给的影响将被基础货币增加对货币供给的影响所抵消。     

The Effect of Bank Debt Downgrades on Stock Prices of Other Banks

We find that debt downgrades of money center banks elicit negative stock price responses in nondowngraded money center banks. Stock prices of larger regional banks also react to these downgrades. Although downgrades of regional banks evoke negative stock price responses for regional banks in the same geographic region, the importance of geographic region as a factor determining the extent of intra‐industry reactions has diminished since 1989. Our results indicate that the merger and expansion activities triggered by interstate banking have blurred differences between regional and money center banks as interstate banking activity has moved towards nationwide banking     

How do banks create money,and why can other firms not do the same? An explanation for the coexistence of lending and deposit-taking

Thanks to the recent banking crises interest has grown in banks and how they operate. In the past, the empirical and institutional market micro-structure of the operation of banks had not been a primary focus for investigations by researchers, which is why they are not well covered in the literature. One neglected detail is the banks' function as the creators and allocators of about 97% of the money supply (Werner, 1997, Werner, 2005), which has recently attracted attention (Bank of England, 2014a, Bank of England, 2014b, Werner, 2014b, Werner, 2014c). It is the purpose of this paper to investigate precisely how banks create money, and why or whether companies cannot do the same. Since the implementation of banking operations takes place within a corporate accounting framework, this paper is based upon a comparative accounting analysis perspective. By breaking the accounting treatment of lending into two steps, the difference in the accounting operation by bank and non-bank corporations can be isolated. As a result, it can be established precisely why banks are different and what it is that makes them different: They are exempted from the Client Money Rules and thus, unlike other firms, do not have to segregate client money. This enables banks to classify their accounts payable liabilities arising from bank loan contracts as a different type of liability called ‘customer deposits’. The finding is important for many reasons, including for modelling the banking sector accurately in economic models, bank regulation and also for monetary reform proposals that aim at taking away the privilege of money creation from banks. The paper thus adds to the growing literature on the institutional details and market micro-structure of our financial and monetary system, and in particular offers a new contribution to the literature on ‘what makes banks different’, from an accounting and regulatory perspective, solving the puzzle of why banks combine lending and deposit-taking operations under one roof.     

Deregulation and oligopolistic rivalry in bank deposit markets

This paper provides a partial equilibrium analysis of a deregulated market for bank deposits in which banks behave oligopolistically but entry and exit are freely permitted. It is demonstrated that the effects of variations in market interest rates, reserve requirements, and bank cost and demand conditions upon the market quantity of bank deposit money are fundamentally altered if the degree of bank rivalry adjusts endogenously. Hence, banking deregulation may produce significant changes in the relationships between these variables and the stock of deposit money.     

Bank earning asset behavior and causality between reserves and money: Lagged versus contemporaneous reserve accounting

This paper empirically examines the impact of lagged reserve accounting on large individual bank behavior. Its specific objective is to assess the claim that the institution of LRA has led to a decoupling of the earning asset and reserve adjustment decisions of banks. To accomplish this objective, a system of equations which jointly describe the reserve adjustment and earning asset decisions of banks is estimated and tested for differences in the model between the periods before and after 1968. It is found that bank behavior does not differ fundamentally under LRA. Evidence that banks make their earning asset adjustments promptly and that expected future interest rates are important in their decisions is also presented.     

Changes in Interstate Banking Laws: The Impact on Shareholder Wealth

This study examines the impact on shareholder wealth of changes in interstate banking laws. The research demonstrates that changes in state statutes which allow interstate banking have a positive impact on the stock prices of regional banking organizations and a negative impact on the stock prices of money center banks. Interstate banking statutes initially exclude those states in which the money center banks are headquartered. The findings provide evidence that, by excluding money center banks from expansion across state lines, the competition from the regional banks may have an adverse competitive effect on the money center banks.     

电子货币对存款准备金制度的冲击效应研究

本文以电子货币为视角,将电子货币引入存款准备金制度的理论分析框架,在理论分析及对传统货币模型修正的基础上,选择电子货币与存款准备金政策相关的变量,建立数量经济模型。通过统计检验发现：电子货币放大了货币乘数,并使货币乘数变得不稳定,从而加大了中央银行通过存款准备金政策影响货币乘数来调节商业银行信用创造能力的难度,削弱了存款准备金政策的效率。     

Banks, private money, and government regulation

We study competition between inside and outside money in economies with trading frictions and financial intermediation. Claims on banks circulate if the redemption rate is low. When the quantity of fiat money is scarce, coexistence of inside and outside money dominates equilibria with a unique medium of exchange. If outside money is ample, banks choose to redeem claims in outside money, which increases welfare. Under binding reserve requirements, tightening monetary policy leads to credit rationing. Our results support recent trends toward lower reserve requirements. However, we also identify situations where restrictions on note issue are beneficial.     

Can we trust the accounting discretion of firms with political money contributions? Evidence from U.S. IPOs

Using hand-collected data from the U.S., we examine the influence of political money contributions (PMC) on IPO financial reporting. Unraveling the conflicting managerial incentives, we develop and test three distinct hypotheses whereby accounting discretion is utilized to downplay, embellish, or truthfully impart the PMC firm’s prospects. Consistent with the last two hypotheses, we document income-increasing reporting. The effects are strongest for firms sensitive to policy outcomes, and least affected by contemporaneous political events. Post-issue analysis shows that at-issue discretionary accruals systematically predict future accounting performance but are unrelated to stock returns. Survival analysis indicates a lower probability of IPO failure. Robust to a battery of checks, our results support the value-relevance of financial information and a novel use of accounting discretion as a means of signaling expected political gains.     

A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence

How do banks operate and where does the money supply come from? The financial crisis has heightened awareness that these questions have been unduly neglected by many researchers. During the past century, three different theories of banking were dominant at different times: (1) The currently prevalent financial intermediation theory of banking says that banks collect deposits and then lend these out, just like other non-bank financial intermediaries. (2) The older fractional reserve theory of banking says that each individual bank is a financial intermediary without the power to create money, but the banking system collectively is able to create money through the process of ‘multiple deposit expansion’ (the ‘money multiplier’). (3) The credit creation theory of banking, predominant a century ago, does not consider banks as financial intermediaries that gather deposits to lend out, but instead argues that each individual bank creates credit and money newly when granting a bank loan. The theories differ in their accounting treatment of bank lending as well as in their policy implications. Since according to the dominant financial intermediation theory banks are virtually identical with other non-bank financial intermediaries, they are not usually included in the economic models used in economics or by central bankers. Moreover, the theory of banks as intermediaries provides the rationale for capital adequacy-based bank regulation. Should this theory not be correct, currently prevailing economics modelling and policy-making would be without empirical foundation. Despite the importance of this question, so far only one empirical test of the three theories has been reported in learned journals. This paper presents a second empirical test, using an alternative methodology, which allows control for all other factors. The financial intermediation and the fractional reserve theories of banking are rejected by the evidence. This finding throws doubt on the rationale for regulating bank capital adequacy to avoid banking crises, as the case study of Credit Suisse during the crisis illustrates. The finding indicates that advice to encourage developing countries to borrow from abroad is misguided. The question is considered why the economics profession has failed over most of the past century to make any progress concerning knowledge of the monetary system, and why it instead moved ever further away from the truth as already recognised by the credit creation theory well over a century ago. The role of conflicts of interest and interested parties in shaping the current bank-free academic consensus is discussed. A number of avenues for needed further research are indicated.     

Equilibrium Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model of Money and Banking

We construct an analytically tractable endogenous growth model of money and banking where money provides "liquidity services" to facilitate transactions and banks convert non-reserve deposits into productive capital. We examine both the long- and short-run effects of changes in the money growth rate or the reserve requirement ratio. In response to a change in the required reserve ratio, the inflation rate and the growth rates of capital, real balances, and consumption need not adjust monotonically along the transition path. While the balanced growth equilibrium may be either a saddle or a source locally, the global dynamical system exhibits flip bifurcation.     

An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations

An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function under rational expectations is presented. The technique utilizes the side assumptions that (1) accurate contemporaneous information on the price level and money stock is available to individuals and (2) unobservable noise in the portfolio balance schedule is neglible. The procedure has three main virtues. First, it is implemented without imposing restrictions on the money supply process. Second, the procedure is extremely simple and economical. Third, it admits a simple test of a restriction implied by the Cagan money demand function. Results are related to issues in recent hyperinflation studies.     

Does Investor Sentiment Affect the Value Relevance of Accounting Information?

We investigate whether investor sentiment affects the relationships between accounting variables and contemporaneous stock returns. Using price-relevant accounting variables identified by Chen and Zhang (2007) and the investor sentiment index constructed by Baker and Wurgler (2006), we find that the value relevance of accounting variables is collectively lower in high sentiment periods than in low sentiment periods. More importantly, earnings yield appears to be more related to contemporaneous stock returns in high sentiment periods, while other accounting variables are more related to stock returns in low sentiment periods. The effect of investor sentiment on the value relevance of accounting information is stronger for firms that are more difficult to value and to arbitrage.     

A Model of QE,Reserve Demand,and the Money Multiplier

Quantitative easing (QE) programs have driven unprecedented expansions in the supply of central bank reserves around the world over the past two decades, fundamentally changing the implementation of monetary policy. The collapse in money multipliers following QE episodes has often been interpreted as implying banks are happy to passively hold most of the reserves created by QE. This paper develops a simple microsimulation model of the banking sector that adapts the traditional money multiplier model and allows for bank reserve demand to be inferred from monetary aggregates. The model allows the use of unwanted reserves by banks to play out over time alongside QE purchases and incorporates both significantly higher reserve demand after 2008 and capital constraints. With these additions, the model explains the persistently lower money multipliers seen in the United States following QE, as well as the growth in commercial bank deposits. The model suggests the demand from banks for reserves has increased substantially since the introduction of QE but not to the point where banks are passively absorbing all newly created reserves.     

Reserve requirements and optimal seigniorage

This note presents a model of optimizing agents who chose to hold deposits at financial intermediaries, which are required to hold fractional reserves of fiat money. When the stock of fiat money is expanded, the reserve requirement functions as a tax on deposits. The combination of reserve requirements and inflation results in a lower steady-state utility than a direct tax on deposits. The optimal monetary policy when reserves are required is to minimize reserve requirements and inflate without limit the stock of fiat money.     

Accounting Ratios and the Cross‐section of Expected Stock Returns

Under clean‐surplus accounting, the log return on a stock can be decomposed into a linear function of the contemporaneous log return on equity, the contemporaneous log dividend–price ratio (if the stock pays a dividend), and both the contemporaneous and lagged values of the log book‐to‐market equity ratio. This paper studies the implications of this decomposition for the cross‐section of conditional expected stock returns. The empirical analysis reveals that the log accounting ratios capture cross‐sectional variation in both the conditional mean and conditional variance of log stock returns, which is consistent with the decomposition. It also brings fresh insights to the relation between firm size (market equity) and conditional expected stock returns. The evidence indicates that the conditional median return increases with firm size, while the conditional return skewness decreases with firm size. Empirically, the skewness effect outweighs the median effect, leading to the well‐documented inverse relation between size and average returns. The results of out‐of‐sample tests suggest that investors could use the information provided by the observed values of the log accounting ratios to formulate more effective portfolio strategies.     

经理人股票期权会计确认的探讨

经理人股票期权的确认问题是亟待解决的会计理论和实践问题。经理人股票期权的经济实质是企业经理人参与企业剩余索取权的分享。经理人股票期权是一项无形资产,应在经理人提供劳动期间内,将其平均摊销。应改革现行的财务会计观念与模式,增设“待转股本准备”科目,以适应企业经理人参与现代企业剩余索取权分享的现实。