美国保险理论研究综述:历史与现状

美国作为当前世界上最为发达的保险市场之一,在实务领域引领世界保险业发展的同时,也为各种保险理论思想的研究探索提供了一个交流的舞台,很多创新性的研究方法和研究模式均来自美国保险理论研究。本文从理论研究的观点整合和代表人物分析出发,将美国保险理论研究的发展过程概括为三个主要阶段进行叙述,然后从五个部分对美国保险理论研究的内容进行介绍,最后得出的主要结论是我国当前的保险理论研究要重视跨学科的定量研究,在重视对基础性理论进行长期持续研究的同时强调研究范式的转变。     

Unsecured debt with public insurance: From bad to worse

In U.S. data, income interruptions, the receipt of public insurance, and the incidence of personal bankruptcy are all closely related. The central contribution of this paper is to evaluate bankruptcy protection and public insurance in a unified setting where each program alters incentives in the other. Our analysis delivers two striking conclusions. First, we find that U.S. personal bankruptcy law is an important barrier that prevents the public insurance system from improving welfare. Second, contrary to popular belief, we find that increases in the generosity of public insurance will lead to more, not less, bankruptcy.     

Foreign exchange exposure: Evidence from the U.S. insurance industry

We study the foreign exchange exposure of U.S. insurers. The evidence shows that no systematic difference exists in the currency risk profiles of life and non-life segments within the insurance industry. This suggests that life and non-life insurers have similar risk exposure management strategies arising from similar risk pooling and financial intermediary functions. The empirical results reveal that a sizable proportion of U.S. insurers are exposed to foreign exchange movements against the seven largest U.S. trade partners in insurance services (U.K., Japan, Switzerland, Netherlands, France, Germany and Canada). Significant operational and size effects are also documented and we find that the frequency of foreign exchange exposure increases with time horizon.     

The Health Insurance Reform Debate

This article provides an overview of the U.S. health care reform debate and legislation, with a focus on health insurance. Following a synopsis of the main problems that confront U.S. health care and insurance, it outlines the health care reform bills in the U.S. House and Senate as of early December 2009, including the key provisions for expanding and regulating health insurance, and projections of the proposals' costs, funding, and impact on the number of people with insurance. The article then discusses (1) the potential effects of the mandate that individuals have health insurance in conjunction with proposed premium subsidies and health insurance underwriting and rating restrictions, (2) the proposed creation of a public health insurance plan and/or nonprofit cooperatives, and (3) provisions that would modify permissible grounds for health policy rescission and repeal the limited antitrust exemption for health and medical liability insurance. It concludes by contrasting the reform bills with market-oriented proposals and with brief perspective on future developments.     

How Does the Corporate World Cope with Mega‐Terrorism? Puzzling Evidence from Terrorism Insurance Markets

Terrorist attacks that have succeeded abroad since 2001, as well as others that were prevented, indicate that the threat of a large‐scale attack is real and will be with us for a long time. Focusing on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, this article analyzes the role that insurance can play in providing commercial enterprises with financial protection against the economic consequences of major terrorist attacks. The article begins by explaining the design and key features of terrorism insurance programs operating today in each of the three countries (TRIA in the U.S., Pool Re in the U.K., and Extremus in Germany). The authors then provide a detailed comparative analysis of the evolution of prices and take‐up rates (based on as yet unpublished data), with particular attention to financial institutions. For those who think the U.S. is the most likely target for mega‐terrorism, the findings are somewhat puzzling. On average, for example, companies in the U.S. do not pay even half as much for comparable coverage under TRIA as companies pay in Germany under Extremus, which raises the questions: Is terrorism coverage under the U.S. insurance program now drastically underpriced? If so, what would be the likely consequences of another large‐scale attack in the U.S.? On the demand side, the authors observe a dramatic increase in take‐up rates in the U.S. since 2003, revealing increased corporate concern. By contrast, the market penetration in Germany remains remarkably low. A better understanding of these programs and of the recent evolution of terrorism insurance markets in the U.S. and Europe should help corporate and government decision makers develop more effective protection against the economic consequences of mega‐terrorism.     

美国医疗保障制度改革述评

美国是发达国家中唯一没有建立全民社会医疗保障体系的国家。历史上美国曾发起过一次又一次推行全民医保的运动,但结果多以失败而告终。新世纪伊始,特别是金融危机爆发之后,美国民众对医保改革的呼声越来越高。2009年奥巴马就任美国总统后,将其作为施政的重点。美国医改法案几经曲折,最终在2010年3月获得国会批准,正式实施。本文对此次美国医疗保障制度改革的背景、内容及其经济学内涵、改革涉及的争论焦点及未来效果预期等进行深入分析,以期为我国未来医疗保障制度的进一步完善提供借鉴经验。     

美国长期护理保障制度改革及其对我国的启示

本文主要运用文献研究法,对美国长期护理保障制度的现状进行了分析。分析发现,当前关国长期护理保障制度存在两大问题,分别是政府财政转移支付缺乏可持续性、私人保单难以覆盖广大中低收入阶层。为解决上述问题,关国政府对长期护理保障制度采取了一系列改革措施,但改革始终没能达到预期效果。美国长期护理保障制度改革启示我们,长期护理保障...     

Is Bancassurance a Viable Model for Financial Firms?

The bancassurance (i.e., bank and insurance company combinations) model for financial firm architecture has been widely used in Europe and recently has been adopted by U.S. financial firms. We provide evidence regarding the viability of bancassurance combinations for U.S. and non‐U.S. mergers between 1997 and 2002. We find positive gains and no significant risk shifts for shareholders of bidding firms, and that higher CEO stock ownership results in less positive gains for shareholders. These and other results suggest that bancassurance firms are viable entities that may play an important role in the future evolution of the U.S. financial system.     

The effect of industry consolidation and deposit insurance reform on the resiliency of the U.S. bank insurance fund

We examine the effects of structural change in the U.S. banking industry, as well as key regulatory changes, including recently enacted deposit insurance reform legislation, on the resiliency of the FDIC-administered bank insurance fund (BIF) by estimating and comparing the probability of BIF insolvency over time. We do this using a Markov-switching model that relies on historical patterns of BIF disbursements to define the probability of switching among three “states” of the banking industry's financial health. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to project the financial condition of the BIF over a 50-year period. Our results indicate that the insolvency risk to the bank insurance fund has increased significantly due to industry consolidation, and is mainly due to the concentration of deposits in the 10 largest U.S. banking companies. We also find that recent deposit insurance reforms will cause only a marginal reduction in the risk of BIF insolvency. The increased risk associated with a more concentrated industry structure simply dominates the reform effect.     

Ausweitung der Arzthaftung als Einfallstor für neue Formen der Arzthaftpflichtversicherung?

In a recent case, the Austrian Supreme Court remarkably extended medical liability of a gynaecologist for inadequate information about a possible mental handicap of an unborn child. On this occasion, the paper outlines the modified risk exposure of physicians and analyses a possible impact of case-law on the availability and affordability of liability insurance. It raises the question whether a liability crisis could be possible in Austria and briefly explains the underlying U.S. legal and regulatory framework that led to liability crises in the past. In the U.S., alternative risk transfer by means of Risk Retention Groups (RRGs) has been crucial in improving availability and affordability of liability insurance and to rein in liability crises. The Austrian legal and regulatory framework as it stands now would allow for self insurance solutions like Risk Retention Groups but the economic necessity for alternative solutions to traditional insurance schemes seems to be lacking.     

Why haven’t U.S. GAAP and IFRS on insurance contracts converged? Evidence from an unsuccessful joint project

This study examines the FASB’s and IASB’s unsuccessful joint project on accounting for insurance contracts. It highlights the divergent views the Boards may hold on certain fundamental accounting issues. Further, this study examines how the costs and benefits of accounting standard convergence can vary within an industry, conditional on factors such as prior accounting standards and firms’ global operations. Empirically, U.S. insurers’ negative market reactions to the joint insurance project suggest U.S. investors perceived net costs would outweigh net benefits. This study also finds that market reactions of U.S. insurers were more negative than those of European insurers. The results of cross-sectional analyses indicate that U.S. life insurers perceived higher net costs associated with the joint project, while European insurers with more global revenue perceived higher net benefits. This work illuminates some of the challenges facing standard setters when attempting to develop a globally acceptable set of financial reporting standards.     

The Earnings of Real Estate Salespersons and Others in the Financial Services Industry

This study explores the determinants of earnings of salespersons in financial services using nationwide data from the 1990 U.S. Census. The study reveals that security and insurance salespersons earn substantially more than do persons in real estate sales. The returns to K through 12 schooling are highest in the insurance and securities areas, while the returns to college are highest in security sales. For males, the returns to graduate education are negative in real estate and insurance. For females in these same areas, returns are large and positive in insurance and negative in real estate. In all areas of financial services, earnings are higher in larger, more wealthy, homogenous cities.     

Market turbulence creates financing opportunity

The flight to high-quality assets resulting from Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating has dropped the yield on U.S. Treasury securities as investors have sought refuge amid uncertain market conditions. Consequently, hospitals can now obtain mortgage insurance from the U.S. government to finance expansions and refinance their debt with GNMA securities at taxable interest rates that are often more favorable than tax-exempt bond fixed rates. Because GNMA certificates can be sold in a forward purchase transaction that locks in a fixed interest rate while avoiding payment of interest until construction funds are disbursed, they can help avoid the effects of negative arbitrage.     

The Effectiveness of Consumption Taxes and Transfers as Insurance Against Idiosyncratic Risk

We quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of a consumption tax and lump-sum transfer program as insurance against idiosyncratic earnings risk. We use a heterogeneous agent, incomplete markets model in which households adjust savings and employment in each period in the presence of idiosyncratic productivity risk and a borrowing constraint. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find a weak insurance effect of the consumption tax and transfer program. Expanding the tax and transfer program from the current U.S. level increases the capital-output ratio and reduces the interest rate. Consumption inequality also decreases only slightly.     

Accounting and the state: Consequences of merger and acquisition accounting in the U.S. hospital industry

The interaction between government, industry and accounting policy is examined in a study of the consequences of merger and acquisition accounting in the U.S. hospital industry. The research combines statistical and historical methodologies to analyse both the political antecedents, and the distributional and organizational consequences of accounting policies adopted by the U.S. Medicare health insurance program. Implication of the study for understanding the role of accounting at the meso-level of state-industry relations are discussed.     

美国国债评级展望下调的根源及前景——基于标普下调美国国债评级展望的分析

标普下调美国国债评级展望的事件引发市场剧烈波动,美国国债问题备受关注。文章分析指出,美国财经纪律松散、回避长期性经济结构调整而依赖短期性刺激救助政策等因素,是构成本次国债评级展望下调的深层原因,而未来由美国＂婴儿潮＂引发的＂银发海啸＂及社会医疗保险支出的上升将加剧财政收支矛盾。总体来看,美国国债评级短期内大幅下调的可能性不大,但长期风险不容忽视。     

A Reexamination of the Corporate Demand for Reinsurance

This study examines the effect of the state of the international reinsurance market on the demand for reinsurance by U.S. insurers using data from the years 1993 through 2000. Both the overall demand for reinsurance and the utilization of foreign reinsurance by U.S. insurers are explored. In addition to supporting the findings of prior literature related to the traditional motives for the corporate demand for insurance, evidence indicates that the state of the U.S. reinsurance industry impacts the amount of reinsurance demanded by U.S. insurers. The study also investigates reasons why U.S. insurers utilize a reinsurance program composed of both U.S. and foreign reinsurers. The results indicate that the decision to utilize some percentage of foreign reinsurance is driven primarily by the financial and operational characteristics of the ceding company such as firm size, group affiliation, and organizational form. However, no support is found for the hypothesis that possible differences between the foreign and U.S. reinsurance markets impact the decision to utilize foreign reinsurance.     

Adverse selection and moral hazard: Quantitative implications for unemployment insurance

A model of optimal unemployment insurance with adverse selection and moral hazard is constructed. The model generates both qualitative and quantitative implications for the optimal provision of unemployment insurance. Qualitatively, for some agents, incentives in the optimal contract imply consumption increases over the duration of non-employment. Calibrating the model to a stylized version of the U.S. economy quantitatively illustrates these theoretical predictions. The optimal contract achieves a welfare gain of 1.94% relative to the current U.S. system, an additional 0.87% of gains relative to a planner who ignores adverse selection and focuses only on moral hazard.     

国际保险集团偿付能力监管改革及启示

美国次贷危机以来,不少知名国际保险集团纷纷出现偿付能力不足甚至破产的情形,保险集团偿付能力监管改革被推上了风口浪尖。本文重点研究国际保险集团偿付能力监管体系改革的新动向和新发展,并对监管理念的变革进行总结,以期对国际保险集团偿付能力监管改革有一个清晰的认识,对我国保险集团偿付能力监管体系建设有所借鉴。     

The U.S. Property and Liability Insurance Industry: Firm Growth,Size, and Age

The relationship between firm size, age, and growth is tested for the U.S. property and liability (P‐L) insurance industry, and the determinants of firm characteristics on firm growth are analyzed. Using Heckman's two‐stage methodology, this article examines the relationship between corporate growth and firm size. The relationship between firm growth and firm age is also investigated. Furthermore, to determine time‐varying effects, the analysis is conducted for the different subperiods. The results of this article strongly support Gibrat's Law in the U.S. P‐L insurance market for the testing periods. The results are consistent for longer time periods and for shorter subperiods. It also finds that young firms grow faster than old firms during the sample periods. Related to the determinants of firm characteristics on firm growth, insurers using less input cost tend to grow fast. Economies of scope are positively related to firm growth as well.