外汇衍生品市场的发展与管理

近年来外汇衍生品受到很大关注,外汇衍生品市场取得了长足的发展,因此我们有必要梳理外汇衍生品市场的发展状况,探索外汇衍生品的风险以及外汇衍生品市场发展对金融市场的影响,并思考外汇衍生品市场管理的对策,以期能为国内外外汇衍生品市场的进一步发展提供参考。     

关于中国外汇衍生品交易监管的探讨

外汇衍生品是用于风险管理的有效工具,能够实现风险在横向上的分摊和 纵向上的跨时平滑,反映了风险与收益的平衡。外汇衍生品风险问题的关键不在于产品本 身,而在于产品是否被合理使用。必要的监管可以确保外汇衍生品交易市场功能的有效发 挥。从监管现状、监管的必要性、改进对策等角度看,为改进中国外汇衍生品交易监管, 今后要正确看待和处理汇率制度、汇率风险和发展外汇衍生品交易三者之间的关系,加强 外汇衍生品交易市场的稳定性,逐步放松对外汇衍生品交易的管制。     

从套利交易看外汇衍生品大家族

在全球流动性背景下,近几年国际资本市场出现了一种新的投资模式——套利交易,作为外汇衍生品大家族的新成员,这种交易模式规模庞大,对国际外汇市场影响深远。 透过套利交易,让我们以俯视的视角来看外汇衍生品家族,我们可以看到这个家族是非常庞大的,具体包括：直接远期外汇交易、外汇掉期、货币互换和货币期权、外汇期贷和外汇期贷期权以及由这些工具组合的交易或其他衍生品种。近年来,国际经济环境的变化和不断增长的投资需求使外汇衍生品大家族也发生了一些新的变化。     

印度场外衍生品交易报告库的发展研究

金融危机后,全球主要资本市场相继推出相应立法,如美国的《多德-弗兰克法案》、欧盟的《欧洲市场基础设施条例》等;同时新设或改革原有监管机构,调整多层次资本市场体系,以及通过建立交易报告库等市场基础设施加强对场外衍生品市场的监管。印度在加强场外市场集中清算和交易报告库等制度的建设方面,采取了通过交易报告库增加市场透明度、利用集中清算转移化解场外市场风险等措施。印度在充分了解和认识本国场外衍生品市场发展的基础上,选择了政府发起、本地设立以及单一管理的交易报告库模式。这符合印度场外衍生品的发展阶段和发展规模,能够满足阶段性场外衍生品交易透明性的需求,同时具备经济上的可行性。随着我国场外衍生品市场监管的推进,通过设立交易报告库使监管机构有效获取市场信息,并以此提高市场透明度、降低系统性风险日显重要。对此,印度场外衍生品交易报告库的设立模式具有一定的借鉴和启发意义。     

外汇衍生品市场对金融市场稳定的影响及其监管对策

自20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来,外汇衍生产品交易增长迅猛,外汇衍生品交易为金融机构和企业提供了规避汇率风险的渠道,促进了国际贸易与投资的稳步发展。与此同时,因衍生品交易导致金融机构破产和市场剧烈波动的例子也层出不穷。本文从外汇衍生品市场发展与金融市场稳定的角度,分析了外汇衍生品市场对金融市场稳定的促进作用及潜在风险,在借鉴国际上对衍生品交易监管措施和发达国家监管框架的基础上,提出了我国监管外汇衍生品市场的相应政策建议。     

汇率改革以来中国外汇市场的发展

国际外汇市场和中国外汇市场的交易规模 按照国际清算银行的分类,外汇市场按照交易工具可以分为:传统的外汇市场和外汇衍生品市场.前者包括的交易为:现汇交易,远期交易和外汇掉期交易,后者包括的交易为:货币互换交易,外汇期权交易,以及其他涉及外汇的衍生品交易.     

衍生品电子化交易确认及其在银行间市场的应用研究

自全球金融危机以来,国际场外衍生品市场监管逐渐趋于严格和透明,标准化和电子化已成为衍生品市场发展的重要趋势。文章回顾了场外衍生品电子化交易确认业务的产生背景、发展进程与发展经验,介绍了国内银行间衍生品市场应用电子化交易确认业务的实践,及其对于提高市场标准化程度、降低市场风险以及完善衍生品市场基础设施的重要意义。     

人民币外汇衍生品交易的风险管理——有关基本原则的探讨

随着我国外汇市场的不断发展,人民币的外汇产品也逐步增多,除了人民币的远期结售汇业务以外,人民币的远期交易和掉期交易也已正式推出。我们可以推断,在不久的将来,人民币期货和期权等外汇衍生品也会获准上市交易。为了有效控制人民币外汇衍生品交易的风险,我们认为,必须坚持以下原则：     

改善银行间外汇市场衍生品流动性的初步设想

随着金融市场的深入发展,我国外汇衍生品市场发展迅速,外汇衍生品的品种逐渐丰富。在银行间市场上,有些较为复杂的外汇衍生品现阶段流动性不高。文章以货币掉期和外汇期权这两种流动性尚不充分的衍生品为样本,通过对其交易情况和市场参与情况的分析,归纳出流动性不高的表现和产生原因。最后从市场组织方的角度提出改善银行间外汇市场衍生品流动性的初步设想。     

场外市场交易模式的国际经验和发展现状

目前,全球约89％的衍生品交易是在场外市场实现的。在场外市场交易方式中,电子交易已成为主流交易方式,其交易模式主要体现为单交易商平台、多交易商平台和交易商间平台。文章对各类模式的内在属性进行比较,对场外市场交易模式的国际经验和发展现状进行梳理,指出合理的交易机制能有效促进市场的规模发展和功能深化,场外市场交易模式的国际经验可为我国场外市场发展提供参照和借鉴。     

Short-Term External Debt and Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from the Korea Market

Abstract:

We empirically analyze the main determinants of foreign exchange rate (FX) volatility in emerging market economies using the data of Korea corporations and financial institutions. We find that short-term external debt is more important than trading volume of foreign investors in explaining FX volatility. Our results suggest that short-term debt-controlling measures, such as a tax levy on short-term borrowing, can be more effective in moderating FX volatility than can the measures affecting the trading volume, such as a Tobin tax.     

Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?

Does global currency volume increase on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) days? To test hypotheses of abnormal currency volume on FOMC days, a new data set from the Continuous Linked Settlement (CLS) Bank is used. The CLS measure captures more than half of the global trading volume in foreign exchange (FX) markets. The evidence shows that FX trading volume increases about 5% in the spot and the spot-next market following FOMC deliberations. The novelty of this result is that the aggregated CLS data controls for responses in various derivatives markets: a feature that existing studies based on intradaily data for specific trading platforms do not consider.     

Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange (FX) market is worldwide, but the dealers differ in their geographical locations (time zones), working hours, time horizons, home currencies, access to information,transaction costs, and other institutional constraints. The variety of time horizones is large: from intra-day dealers, who close their positions every evening, to long-term investors and central banks. Depending on the constraints, the different market participats need different strategies to reach their goal, which is usually maximizing the profit, or rather a utility function including risk. Different intra-day trading strategies can be studied only if high-density data are available. Oslen & Associates (O & A) has collected and analysed large amounts of FX quotes by market makers around the clock (up to 5000 non-equally spaced prices per day for the German mark against US$). Based on these data, a set of real-time intra-day trading models has been developed. These models give explicit trading recommendations under realistic constraints. They are allowed to trade only during the opening hours of a market, depending on the time zone and local holidays. The models have been running real-time for more than three years, thus leading to an ex ante test. The test results, obtained with a risk-sensitive performance measure, are presented. All these trading models are profitable, but they differ in their risk behaviour and dealing frequency. If a certain profitable intra-day algorithm is tested with different working hours, its success can considerably change. A systematic study shows that the best choice of working hours is usually when the most important markets for the particular FX rate are active. All the results demonstrate that the assumption of a homogeneous 24-hour FX market with identical dealers, following an identical ‘rational expectation’, is far from reality. To explain the market dynamics, a heterogeneous model of the market with different types of dealers is more appropriate.     

全球主要货币外汇交易比重变化与趋势——BIS三年一度中央银行调查报告解析

2013年9月,国际清算银行发布了《三年一度中央银行调查报告——2013年4月全球外汇交易统计初步结果》。通过与历年报告比较分析发现,近年来,全球外汇交易量显著增加：主要贷币交易量变化各异;外汇交易向主要金融中心汇浆趋势明显;人民币离岸外汇交易量激增,虽已成为全球第九大外汇交易贷币,但与其他主要贷币相比,交易量仍然较小。上述变化与特点,对中国积极推进人民币跨境使用和建设上海国际金融中心具有重要参考价值。     

2012年2月银行间市场运行报告

2012年2月,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点是：银行间市场资金面仍呈现偏紧格局,货币市场短期利率月中明显走高,银行间国债收益率曲线整体上移,利率互换成交曲线也出现明显上移。人民币汇率波动性减弱,但市场交易进一步活跃,新货币对交易显著增长,外汇衍生品交易创新高,市场结构继续优化;外汇远期曲线发布,形成基本完整的汇率衍生品市场基准体系。     

The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward

Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data surprisingly well. But FX markets are evolving rapidly in response to new electronic trading technologies. Transparency has risen, trading costs have tumbled, and transaction speed has accelerated as new players have entered the market and existing players have modified their behavior. These changes will have profound effects on exchange rate dynamics. Looking forward, we highlight fundamental yet unanswered questions on the nature of private information, the impact on market liquidity, and the changing process of price discovery. We also outline potential microstructure explanations for long-standing exchange rate puzzles.     

中国银行间市场开创卢布交易业务完善市场功能

1994年人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,中国银行间外汇市场挂牌了美元、欧元、日元、英镑和港币等五种国际储备货币。本轮国际金融危机以来,主要货币汇率波动加大,微观主体出于节约汇兑成本的需要,对人民币与新兴市场货币兑换交易的需求不断上升。为满足经济主体的需求,中国人民银行积极探索在银行间外汇市场挂牌人民币对新兴市场货币交易。2010年11月22日,中国银行间外汇市场挂牌人民币对卢布交易。挂牌以来,中国银行间外汇市场人民币对新兴市场货币交易健康发展,报价日益活跃,成交快速增长。截至2011年9月末,银行间外汇市场人民币对卢布成交53.10亿元人民币,2011年下半年以来的交易量也已超过了人民币对英镑的交易量。在我国银行间市场挂牌人民币对卢布交易一周年之际,本刊特推出四家人民币对卢布做市商相关经验与感想的专题文章,供市场参考。     

Optimal informed trading in the foreign exchange market

We formulate a market microstructure model of exchange determination that we employ to investigate the impact of informed trading on exchange rates and on foreign exchange (FX) market conditions. With our formulation, we show how strategic informed agents influence exchange rates via both the portfolio-balance and information effects. We outline the connection which exists between the private value of information, market efficiency, liquidity and exchange rate volatility. Our model is also consistent with recent empirical research on the micro-structure of FX markets.     

2012年银行间市场运行报告

2012年,银行间市场整体平稳运行,主要特点包括：在本币市场上,受基础货币投放方式改变影响,流动性长期保持紧平衡格局;Shibor基准性进一步增强;银行间债市对外开放程度进一步提高,市场行情跌宕起伏;利率衍生品交易活跃度趋缓,其基础设施建设不断推进。在外汇市场上,受国内外经济基本面复杂影响,人民币汇率呈现阶段性波动;外汇市场随实体经济呈现结构性变化;非美货币汇率频创纪录,推出对日元直接交易成效显著;汇率衍生品市场交易持续活跃。     

关于非银行金融机构参与外汇市场问题的研究

相比国际外汇市场，我国非银行金融机构参与外汇市场程度较低，这与外汇市场长期以来坚持实需交易原则有关，可考虑从适度放开自营交易、丰富产品等方面拓宽非银行金融机构参与外汇市场。