Credibility of European economic convergence

Credibility of European Economic Convergence. — The authors analyze economic convergence and its relation to European real interest rate differentials using a clustering method on seven macroeconomic key variables for 1979–1995. The results indicate that monetary convergence has progressed considerably but that there is hardly any real convergence in the EU. They also perform pooled nominal and real interest rate regressions with the individual cluster indicators as explanatory variables. The authors find significant positive effects of external (current account) and internal (unemployment ratios, government finance) imbalances on real interest rates. They also group countries according to economic reputation and find that real indicators remain significant for the high-reputation countries.     

Social protection and regional convergence in a European Monetary Union

This paper addresses convergence in social protection and GDP in a European Economic and Monetary Union. We evaluate the impact of recently proposed EC social minimum requirements on regional convergence within the EC. Subsequently, we analyze a system of differentiated social norms as a means of raising social protection in countries with lower social standards.     

Liberalizing Reforms and the European Union: Accession,Membership, and Convergence

The European Union (EU) may promote reforms to policies and institutions through at least two distinct mechanisms. First, accession to the EU requires countries to undertake reforms. Second, the EU common market may promote Tiebout jurisdictional competition. We empirically evaluate these two mechanisms using an unbalanced panel of up to 45 European countries during 1970–2010. We find that relationships between EU accession/membership and measures of policies/institutions are often statistically insignificant. Furthermore, when the estimated effects are statistically significant they are generally modest.     

陈平：金融危机与欧美经济模式

陈平认为：此次金融危机是西方社会高消费、高负债，产业高度垄断等问题的集中爆发。对于陈平教授的观点，有人有不同意见，认为这是“一家之言”。但至少，他的观点会引发大家的思考     

The euro revolution and the European Union: monetary and economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region

A study of a coordinated monetary and economic policy for the Asia-Pacific region has long been debated. Institutionalization of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) occurred in 1989. In 1999 APEC membership had risen to 21 sovereign nation-state member economies. Annual meetings of finance ministers and heads of central banks of APEC member economies have been a regular feature, pointing to the fact that a supranational macroeconomic core, well-defined by monetary or fiscal policy guidelines alone could contribute to the success of APEC agenda of intraregional free trade, free flow of investment, and then free flow of human capital.Inauguration of the euro and European Central Bank on January 1, 1999, presents a learning model for economic regionalization in the Asia-Pacific. Hence, we propose to study the economic rationale of institutionalization of the Asia-Pacific Monetary Union with an optimal and transparent agenda for intraregional monetary policy coordination in terms of both supply of aggregate stock of money and determination of the intraregional core rate of interest, supplemented by intraregional fiscal policy coordination, which can and will provide the necessary and sufficient conditions for intraregional free market with free flow of trade, investment and human capital, contributing to the maximization of economic gains for all microeconomic actors—households as well as business corporations—belonging to all intraregional sovereign nation-state macroeconomies. This regional arrangement in the Asia-Pacific work within the framework of global institutions, thus optimally harmonizing regionalism with globalism. I have argued that the core of newly emerging economic regionalization relates to (1) a map-of-the-world view of the region, and (2) an intraregional, multilateral cooperative effort to map an economic region with well-specified micro- and macroeconomic parameters on to a specific geographic region.     

Fiscal Discipline and the Question of Convergence of National Interest Rates in the European Union

In this paper, interest-rate convergence in Europe is related to the behavior of integrated federal political systems. Our main results are: Before the final fixing of exchange rates, national interest rates will converge toward the German bond yield in countries eligible to become EMU members in part because no-bailout clauses are not credible in the starting period of EMU. Should such clauses become more credible after 2002 because the EU government and its redistributive mechanisms remain weak, the market-discipline hypothesis has a greater chance to apply. But it may still prove unequal to the task of discouraging excessive fiscal deficits on its own.     

Increasing returns and economic growth: some evidence for manufacturing from the European Union regions: a correction

There was an error in the specification of the regression equation(23) (p.100) in the original paper of Fingleton and McCombie(1998), although it does not greatly alter any of the estimatedcoefficients of interest.     

International trade and economic convergence: the credit channel

In this paper, we examine a particular mechanism by which internationaltrade accelerates economic convergence. We develop a model ofgrowth under credit constraints in which international tradeexpands access to credit. We show in numerical simulations thatreasonable values for openness generate convergence rates thatmatch well the empirical estimates. We econometrically investigatea key prediction of the model - that more open economies exhibitgreater debt to output ratios - and find substantial supportin the data for this claim. This remains true even when we controlfor a host of additional factors and conduct robustness checks.     

欧盟蔬菜市场与中国欧盟蔬菜贸易分析

中国是世界上最大的蔬菜生产国,欧盟是最大的蔬菜贸易区域.两者间蔬菜贸易发展迅速.本文运用显示性比较优势指数、贸易强度指数、产业内贸易指数和出口产品相似度指数等分析了中国与欧盟蔬菜贸易的互补性和竞争性.研究结果表明中国与欧盟在主要蔬菜出口市场上的竞争性不强,双边蔬菜贸易存在单向的互补性.中国应加强与欧盟在农业领域的合作以获得更多贸易以外的利益.     

Galton's fallacy and economic convergence

Friedman (1992) argues that regressing cross-country incomechanges on their final levels can be informative about -convergence(the tendency for the dispersion of income levels to narrow)whereas a similar regression on initial levels of income cannotbe. In this note we show that Bliss's (1999) dismissal of thisargument is in error.     

European Union enlargement: An historic milestone in the process of European integration

Ten European countries with economies in transition and two market economies are negotiating full membership with the European Union. This paper considers the economic dimension of the forthcoming enlargement of the European Union, especially on the characteristics of the economies in transition and on the economic implications of the enlargement for European Union agriculture. The transition of the central and eastern European countries from a centrally planned to a market economy, although already in progress for a decade, is far from complete. Uneven macroeconomic developments in the various countries can be attributed to some extent to their individual situation at the start of the transformation. However, they also reflect the varying extent to which institutional reform programs have been implemented in these countries.Distinguished Address presented at the Fifty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 13–20, 2001, Athens, Greece.     

欧盟:漫漫复苏路

欧洲央行在6月份的经济预测中下调了欧元区2009年和2010年的本地生产总值(GDP)预期,央行官员预计,2009年欧元区实际GDP将较去年萎缩4.1-5.1%,2010年实际GDP则可能在下降1.0%至增长0.4%之间.骤降的需求、脆弱的金融体系以及难以协调的合作,都使欧盟的复苏之路极为漫长.     

欧洲：萎缩放缓风险犹存

今年第一季度,欧元区经济环比下降2．5％,创下自欧元区1999年成立以来的最大季度降幅,主要因为投资受信贷紧缩影响持续大幅萎缩。所幸,由于通胀率走低,欧元区个人消费的下滑速度在一定程度上得到遏制,而全球贸易开始呈现好转迹象也将让欧元区的出口形势得到改善。在7月8日揭幕的G8峰会上,八国集团领导人也表示,尽管出现令人振奋的迹象,但八国经济仍然面临着严重的下行风险。     

Europe in the midst of China–US strategic economic competition: what are the European Union’s options?

ABSTRACT

Despite President Trump’s announcement of a partial deal on October 11, the prolonged economic competition between the two superpowers does not bode well for the future. Within this context, the European Union faces an urgent question: how to position itself in the US–China competition. This paper aims at addressing this question after reviewing the milestones of the trade war and the consequences for China, the US and EU. This paper concludes that European companies are to suffer from the trade war but some sectors could experience gains. Also, a trade deal which pushes China to reform and open up would also be beneficial. Against this background, this paper reviews the EU’s options in dealing with the two hegemons in the light of their growing strategic confrontation. These options are safeguarding multilateralism, relying on the Transatlantic Alliance and remaining neutral which implies relative more engagement with China on economic matters.     

The European Union: Eastern enlargement and taxation

The European Union has not defined its limits in geographical terms. Each enlargement has led and will lead to a decrease of the European Union's per capita GDP. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the transition countries went through a long and deep recession. However, they have reached a stage of positive growth and their tax levels are approaching the lower limit of the range of tax/GDP ratios in European Union countries. Differences exist in tax capacity and tax effort. In some countries, greater efforts are possible to improve tax revenues. Further examination of the timing of tax administration reform may shed light on tax effort in transition countries. The paper also suggests the existence of a negative relationship between tax effort and corruption. (JEL P27, H20) This research is supported in part by San Jose State University (SJSU) during the author's stay at SJSU as 2003-04 International Tax Policy Research Fellow. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a seminar at SJSU. The author gratefully acknowledges useful comments received from seminar participants.     

欧洲货币联盟设计中的缺陷

欧债危机暴露了欧洲货币联盟运作机制的设计缺陷:财政纪律松散、金融监管失当和欧洲央行角色定位存在偏差。危机也为欧元区矫正缺陷提供了改革契机。强化财政纪律有两种思路,制定新的财政条约和采取宪制安排;提高监管效率的改革理念是实施金融监管集中化;欧洲央行应将金融稳定作为主要目标,并承担最后贷款人的角色。文章对上述理念进行了评述,指出除此之外欧盟需要开展更加广泛和深刻的改革。