通货膨胀现状,展望及对策

通货膨胀现状、展望及对策李拉亚１９９４年，是我国经济体制改革关键性的一年，是我国走向社会主义市场经济关键性的一年。在中国经济处在历史发展的决定性时刻，１９９４年的通货膨胀和经济增长形势格外引人注目，可谓举世关心，全民关注。１９９３年的＂双十三＂，即社...     

中国粮价与通货膨胀关系（1987—1999）

本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上，利用均衡修正模型对中国1987-1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析，有很强的经验证据，说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系，因果关系走向通货膨胀影响粮价变动，而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀，另外，研究还发现，我国长期真实粮价基本不变，说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据。然而，粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出拔应时，通常会发生过度或超量调节。     

论转轨型通货膨胀

论转轨型通货膨胀杨德勇由高度集中的计划经济体制向市场经济体制过渡，构成一个经济社会特殊的发展时期，即体制转轨时期。这个时期的特点是二元经济体制并存和＂约束真空＂不断出现，由于二元经济体制的磨擦和碰撞以及＂约束真空＂的不可避免，而引致的通货膨胀，这里我...     

我国显性及隐性通货膨胀的实证分析

通货膨胀是当前我国经济发展过程中一个非常重要的经济发展特点，通货膨胀可以分为隐性通货膨胀、显性通货膨胀和综合通货膨胀三类，在这种通货膨胀情况发展到一定阶段后就可以采用统一的通货膨胀率加以表示，但是在对当前我国的通货膨胀率进行测定的过程中，需要利用一定的实证方式加以准确测定，下面本文就针对当前我国隐性通货膨胀和显性通货膨胀特点加以认真分析，从而提出有效的综合治理方法来减少通货膨胀的影响力。     

中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)

本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上,利用均衡修正模型对中国1987—1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析。有很强的经验证据,说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系。因果关系走向是通货膨胀影响粮价变动,而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀。另外,研究还发现,我国长期真实粮价基本不变,说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据。然而,粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出反应时,通常会发生过度或超量调节。     

中国粮价与通货膨胀关系(1987-1999)

本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上,利用均衡修正模型对中国1987-1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析.有很强的经验证据,说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系.因果关系走向是通货膨胀影响粮价变动,而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀.另外,研究还发现,我国长期真实粮价基本不变,说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据.然而,粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出反应时,通常会发生过度或超量调节.     

居民收入差距与通货膨胀关系(1978-2002)

文章利用AEG协整检验和均衡修正模型,对1978-2002年我国居民收入差距和通货膨胀关系进行了实证检验。结果发现:居民收入差距与通货膨胀之间存在长期均衡关系。我国过大的城镇居民收入差距将会对通货膨胀产生上升的压力,但农村居民收入差距对其的影响却不显著。同时,通货膨胀将会拉大我国居民的收入差距,特别是对城镇居民收入差距的短期影响更为明显。指出加快完善我国的社会保障体制,缩小收入差距,特别是农村居民收入差距和城乡收入差距,以及引导城镇高收入阶层转变不合理的消费方式和投资行为,对于扩大内需、稳定物价、保持经济持续稳定增长具有极其重要的意义。     

中国通货膨胀驱动机制的货币主义新范式

现阶段中国的通货膨胀多被认为是结构型或者成本推动型通货膨胀。然而,本文的研究表明,二十世纪九十年代中后期以来货币扩张背景下的房地产价格上涨是通货膨胀的根本性驱动因素。本文分析框架基于莫尔兹（Meltzer）新货币主义学派的资产市场均衡理论,并结合存在供给与需求双向结构性失衡的拓展AS AD模型。本文认为,非市场化的利率决定机制与长期利率管制是我国货币扩张通过房地产价格向总体通货膨胀传导的金融制度基础。从通货膨胀治理的制度性安排来看,突破以需求管理为主导的现有模式,把供给与需求的均衡管理作为基础是当前更值得考虑的制度性抉择。     

我国居民收入差距与通货膨胀实证研究

文章利用Eviews软件对1978-2009年衡量我国居民收入差距的CPI指数以及衡量通货膨胀程度的GINI系数进行了协整分析和Granger因果检验,得出居民收入差距的扩大是通货膨胀的Granger原因,并且用误差修正机制说明了居民收入差距与通货膨胀之间存在着长期均衡关系.     

改革以来我国通货膨胀的起因分析

改革以来我国通货膨胀的起因分析李卫东通货膨胀（本文把通货膨胀看作物价持续上涨）是严重影响我国市场经济建立和经济正常增长的一个综合性病症，自改革以来反复发作。本文试图分析一下导致我国通货膨胀的深层因素，以利于我们更清醒、更现实地认识通货膨胀。－、我国通...     

The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission and Stabilization Policy in a Post-Keynesian Macrodynamic Model

This paper develops a macrodynamic model that takes into account the potentially inflationary consequences of interest rate manipulations through the cost channel of monetary transmission. Evaluations of the macroeconomic implications of the cost channel are common in the mainstream literature. But this literature uses supply-determined macro models and provides standard optimizing microfoundations for the various ways in which the interest rate can affect mark-ups, prices and ultimately the form of the Phillips curve. Our purpose is to study the implications of different Phillips curves, each embodying the cost channel and derived from Post-Keynesian, cost-based-pricing microfoundations, in a monetary-production economy. We focus on the impact of these Phillips curves on macroeconomic stability and the consequent efficacy of stabilization policy. Ultimately, our results suggest that the presence of the cost channel is less significant for stabilization policy than the general orientation of the policy regime. These results corroborate earlier findings that, in a monetary-production economy, more orthodox policy regimes are inimical to macro stabilization.     

基于制度差异视角的贸易摩擦分析

作者从宏观交易成本的角度和微观企业制度的角度分析了制度差异导致贸易摩擦的机制,并且用博弈的方法分析了各国间进行制度差异协调的必要性,得出我国应从政治、经济、历史文化方面采取相应对策加强制度差异的协调,以减少与贸易伙伴间的摩擦的发生.     

Industrial conflicts and economic conditions: A comparative empirical investigation

The empirical work analyses eleven macro-series from 1948 to 1975 for seventeen OECD countries, including three series for conflicts (strikes and lock-outs). It is demonstrated that the series for the plain number of conflicts are always the best in macro modelling. Hence conflicts matter less as such than as an indicator of the labour market climate. Three links between conflicts and the economy are examined: (i) Wage inflation is found the main factor generating conflicts. (ii) No production loss due to conflicts appears in our annual macro series. (iii) The main thrust is the examination of the fairly successful role conflicts can play as a push proxy in cost push models. Finally the strong international elements in both wage inflation and conflicts are discussed.     

Domestic prices of importable goods in Chile and the law of one price 1975–1982

This paper tries to explain observed deviations from the law of one price in Chile during the 1975–1982 period. In order to do this, we develop a microeconomic model where typical final goods are non-tradeable, and are produced by combining tradeable (importable) goods and commercial (or intermediation) services. The empirical results reported later in the paper tend to support our model and are consistent with the hypothesis that an important proportion of variations in retail and wholesale prices of selected imported goods is explained by changes in the cost of domestic distribution. A very important implication of our findings is that it would not make sense to invoke disaggregated perfect commodity arbitrage to support the assumption of purchasing power parity at the macro level.     

商业银行资金过剩问题研究

我国银行业资金过剩主要有以下四种原因:低消费高储蓄;资本市场低迷不振;人民币升值压力;宏观调控下的贷款紧缩。若不加紧解决,可能会带来如下严重后果:(1)货币政策传导失灵,央行操作成本加大;(2)银行业过度竞争,盲目放贷;(3) 银行赢利减少,收益水平降低。     

James Buchanan’s public debt theory: a rational reconstruction

James Buchanan’s Public Principles of Public Debt is universally associated with the claim that debt allows the cost of public activity to be shifted onto future generations. This claim treats a generation as a unitary and acting entity. Such treatment is standard fare for those macro theorists who work with representative agents and societal averages in place of the actual individuals who constitute a society. This treatment, however, conflicts with the central tenor of Buchanan’s scholarly oeuvre. This essay undertakes a rational reconstruction to render reasonable his claim about debt shifting, while also rendering it consistent with his oft-repeated claim that cost can be experienced only by individuals and never by such aggregates as generations. This reconstruction reveals a cleavage between approaching public debt through macro theory and approaching it through public finance.     

中央政府与地方政府在土地调控中的博弈分析——诠释宏观调控中政府间关系协调的一种新尝试

1994年分税制改革以后,中央政府与地方政府在土地调控上的博弈色彩越来越浓,中央政府"地根"调控的目标是实现土地资源的均衡有序利用和经济社会的可持续发展.理论上其决策是符合全社会福利最大化原则的.但是,作为具有"经济人"思维的地方政府,也有与中央政府利益不一致的地方.研究发现,由于中央对地方政府在土地调控中的投机行为不可能百分之百查处,加之官员任期存在阶段性,现有的成本收益布局决定了地方政府会在土地调控中采取欺骗行为,造成中央土地调控政策的梗阻.制度创新、GPS等技术手段的运用等改变成本收益布局的措施,将有利于减少地方政府的投机行为,增强中央宏观调控的效果.     

How Information Quality of Macro Aggregates Affects Sovereign Risk: An Empirical Investigation

This paper looks at the relationship between data quality of macro aggregates and the repayment ratio for debt payments due in a given year after a country defaults. We find empirical evidence that good information of macro aggregates reduces sovereign risk by enhancing the repayment ratio conditional on default, while having an insignificant effect on the default probability. The estimation accounts for selection bias by using a cross-country panel data of 69 developing countries for 1989–2002. Careful consideration is taken to establish information quality of macro aggregates as an exogenous institutional variable. Results are robust to controlling for various governance factors, income levels, and regional factors, etc. Linking information quality to creditors' bargaining power is more consistent with our findings than linking poor information quality to information asymmetry.     

Endogenous money,inflation, and welfare

This paper addresses the classic question: what are the welfare costs of inflation. We employ a model in which the ratios of currency to deposits and currency to reserves are endogenously determined. The model distinguishes quantitatively between three sources of welfare cost of inflation, and provides further estimates for potential welfare gains from improvements in transaction technologies. Estimates of the marginal cost of public funds associated with the inflation tax are compared both with that of labor taxation within the model and with those reported in the public finance and macro literature. We conclude that not only is inflation an inefficient source of government revenue, but also that, in the absence of lump-sum taxation, deflationary policies may be highly inefficient.     

Do China's people favour redistribution? Evidence from an incentivized experiment

From 1949, China's leaders brought their country through three decades of income and wealth compression, which was followed by more than three decades of sharply rising inequality. What preferences do China's people hold regarding what price (if any) is worth paying for greater equality? We conduct a laboratory decision‐making experiment mimicking aspects of a macro‐political–economic environment, using Chinese undergraduate student subjects. We find that our subjects have qualitatively similar tastes for equality as their counterparts in parallel US and European experiments; for example, most are willing to sacrifice some payment for more equality of earnings among other participants, and their willingness to do this is stronger when inequalities originate randomly versus based on performance. Considering the cases permitting direct comparison between Chinese and US subjects’ choices, redistributive choices tend to be a bit higher in China if the participant pays no direct cost and a bit lower if he or she pays such a cost, but the two distributions of decisions differ significantly in under 14% of conditions. Survey data too suggests preferences for a more equal income distribution in China than in other East Asian countries, suggesting a possible impact of the Chinese Communist Party dominance in education and media.