Cross-border interbank networks,banking risk and contagion

Recent events have highlighted the role of cross-border linkages between banking systems in transmitting local developments across national borders. This paper analyzes whether international linkages in interbank markets affect the stability of interconnected banking systems and channel financial distress within a network consisting of banking systems of the main advanced countries for the period 1994–2012. Methodologically, I use a spatial modeling approach to test for spillovers in cross-border interbank markets. The results suggest that foreign exposures in banking play a significant role in channeling banking risk: I find that countries that are linked through foreign borrowing or lending positions to more stable banking systems abroad are significantly affected by positive spillover effects. From a policy point of view, this implies that in stable times, linkages in the banking system can be beneficial, while they have to be taken with caution in times of financial turmoil affecting the whole system.     

The real effect of banking crises: Finance or asset allocation effects? Some international evidence

This paper analyzes whether the decline in economic growth that follows a banking crisis occurs because of a reduction in the amount of credit available (finance effect) or a worsening in the allocation of investable resources (asset allocation effect). We use a sample of more than 2500 industrial firms in 18 developed and developing countries that experienced 19 systemic banking crises between 1989 and 2007. The results indicate that banking crises negatively affect firms’ intangible investments, which intensifies the economic downturn. The negative growth effect produced by the worsening of the investment allocation is stronger in countries with highly developed financial systems and institutions.     

The stability–concentration relationship in the Brazilian banking system

In this article, the relation between non-performing loans (NPL) of the Brazilian banking system and macroeconomic factors, systemic risk, and banking concentration is empirically tested. In evaluating this relation, we use a dynamic specification with fixed effects, while using a panel data approach. The empirical results suggest that the banking concentration has a statistically significant impact on NPL, suggesting that more concentrated banking systems may improve financial stability. These results are important for the design of banking regulation policies.     

Monetary Policy and Banking Structure

In this paper, I examine the differences in optimal monetary policy in various banking systems. In particular, I compare two monetary economies: one with a competitive banking system and the other with a monopolistic one. In addition, the optimality of the discount window policy is considered. It is shown that the Friedman rule is the optimal monetary policy in a monopolistic banking economy, and the zero‐inflation policy is optimal in a competitive banking economy under appropriate parameters. In addition, the combination of the Friedman rule and the discount window policy can achieve efficient allocation in both banking systems.     

The Volatility of European Banking Systems: A Two-Decade Study

This paper examines the trends and composition of volatility across European banking systems from January 1988 to December 2010. While there is no evidence of a long-term trend in the average level of banking system volatility, there is a change in its composition resulting from the growing importance of International and European nonfinancial components, especially in the largest banking systems. We argue that the changing composition of banking system volatility is the effect of a long-term integration process (with a growing importance of cross-border activities) that has not been influenced by the introduction of the Euro. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of the European banking systems to International and European shocks and an increasing likelihood of cross-border banking crises, and the need for regulatory reforms that focus on effective cross-border crisis management and resolution so as to safeguard the systemic stability of European banking in the near future.     

Cointegration and Exogeneity in Eurobanking and Latin American Banking: Does Systemic Risk Linger?

This paper examines financial integration, interdependence and exogeneity within and between Latin American banking and Eurobanking systems during a period of relative stability after the oil and debt crises of the 1980s. Significant evidence of cointegration in both long‐ and short‐term relationships is reported. Within Latin America, exogeneity lies mainly with the Brazilian system. Within Eurobanking, the U.S. system is the dominant influence. Between Eurobanking and Latin American banking systems, the U.S. system is the major driving force. With continued interdependence of these banking systems, systemic risk lingers, and vigilance is required in banking supervision.     

E-banking in transition economies: The case of Romania

Internet banking is one of the newest Internet technology applications, which promises multiple benefits both for the financial institutions and for clients. In the last five years a large number of banks have launched websites, offering online banking services. While the implementation and functioning of these digital systems seem to be relatively smooth in the developed economies, the situation may be different in countries with economies in transition. The present paper investigates and analyses the specific conditions of an economy in transition (Romania), and the appropriate strategies for the implementation and use of e-banking services.     

Is sovereign risk related to the banking sector?

We examine whether the banking sector within a nation is related to sovereign risk. We hypothesize that more competitive and sophisticated financial systems are less prone to panics or bank runs, and consequently will be associated with superior sovereign credit ratings. Using Ordered Probit with Aggregate Time Effects methodology, our results show that banking sector characteristics such as concentration in the banking system, liquidity of bank assets, and size of financial system are significantly related to sovereign credit ratings. Since the use of these sovereign ratings is ubiquitous in international finance in varied applications such as determination of the cost of international borrowing by governments, international cost of capital for FDI, and others, the relationships identified in this paper have important public policy implications.     

Consolidation and Competition in the Banking Industries of the EU Member and Candidate Countries

This paper investigates competitive conditions in the banking markets of all EU member and candidate countries over the period 1995-2007. The Panzar and Rosse (1987) model is implemented on bank-level data. In particular, the unscaled revenue equation is employed to assess market structure. Country-specific empirical results suggest a wide variation in the competitive conditions of the banking systems in the sampled countries. Nineteen banking systems are characterized as monopolistically competitive, nine as monopolies or perfectly colluding oligopolies, and two as perfectly competitive over the sample period. This study also investigates whether competition conditions changed over the sample period, using 2001 as an endogenously determined break year. The empirical evidence reveals that banking systems became less competitive after that time.     

Determinants of household check writing: the impacts of the use of electronic banking services and alternative pricing of services

In recent years, there has been a simultaneous deregulation of interest ceilings on household deposits and a dramatic deployment of automatic teller machines (ATMs) by the banking industry. At one time, there was a belief that the U. S. would evolve into a “checkless society” because of the development of electronic funds transfer systems such as the ATM. That has clearly not happened. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impacts of both the use of ATMs and the change in pricing due to deregulation on household check writing. The source of the data is a survey of households conducted by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The results of the tests indicate that use of electronic banking services had no discernible impact on check writing while different methods of pricing checking account services did have a substantial impact on check writing.     

Recent trends in international banking

The paper defines ‘international banking’ more as a geographical expression than as a particular type of activity and points out that the internationalization of the world's major banking systems was in many cases an evolutionary phenomenon governed by market or institutional developments. It analyses both the development of international banking structures, stressing the process that brought banks to prefer international retail activity rather than wholesale, and the relationship between domestic and international banking. Finally, the paper deals with the not easy to resolve problem of the establishment of lender of last resort facilities in international banking.     

Heterogeneous market structure and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems

This paper investigates how banking system stability is affected when we combine Islamic and conventional finance under the same roof. We compare systemic resilience of three types of banks in six GCC member countries with dual banking systems: fully-fledged Islamic banks (IB), purely conventional banks (CB) and conventional banks with Islamic windows (CBw). We employ market-based systemic risk measures such as MES, SRISK and CoVaR to identify which sector is more vulnerable to a systemic event. We also compute weighted average GES to determine which sector is most synchronised with the market. Moreover, we use graphical network models to determine the most interconnected banking sector that can more easily spread a systemic shock to the whole system. Using a sample of observations on 79 publicly traded banks operating over the 2005–2014 period, we find that CBw is the least resilient sector to a systemic event, it has the highest synchronicity with the market, and it is the most interconnected banking sector during crisis times.     

Financial stress and economic contractions

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil in advanced economies using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress – in particular banking distress – on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with deeper and longer downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arm's-length financial systems seem to be more exposed to contractions in activity following financial stress, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.     

Generations X and Y's internet banking usage in Australia

This paper contributes to banking services literature by providing empirical research on internet banking behaviour and perceptions of Generations X and Y in Australia. More than 350 respondents aged 18 and above revealed that surprisingly, less than half of the mostly Generations X and Y respondents use internet banking. More Generation X are internet banking users compared to Generation Y, but Generation Y users use internet banking more frequently, use more virtual products, and have used internet banking for a longer time compared to Generation X users. Internet banking users perceive their banks as providing higher quality services compared to non-internet banking users. A large majority of non-internet banking users never tried internet banking at all. Security and privacy concerns were cited. Based on these findings, it can be recommended that banks still need to provide both internet- and non-internet-based means of banking to their younger consumer segments. The banking industry needs to address concerns about security, trust and ease of use to persuade more of Generations X and Y to use internet banking.     

The Structure of Banking Systems in Developed and Transition Economies

The paper empirically analyses the determinants of banking system structure (as measured by bank assets, number, branches and employees) for 26 developed OECD countries. The estimated regressions are then applied to 23 transition economies, to obtain benchmarks for the efficient structure of their banking systems. The actual and benchmark measures of banking structure are compared to evaluate the state of banking system development, including the computation of a measure of 'banking system convergence'. The results are objective and replicable multidimensional measures of banking system development for the transition economies.     

Bank runs, foreign exchange reserves and credibility: When size does not matter

The paper considers the sizes of banking sectors that are vulnerable to runs when the central bank cares about economic stability and currency peg credibility. It is shown that when banks are small, the central bank will recapitalize unhealthy banks because doing so will not compromise its peg. While recapitalizations of large banking sectors will compromise a peg, central banks will also bailout large banking sectors in distress to prevent great economic instability. Given the central bank's expected response, a range of sizes for banking systems, which are vulnerable to runs, is found along with a condition in which size will not matter. That is, if that condition is satisfied, banking sectors of all sizes will be immune to runs. The experiences of Asia and Argentina are discussed to provide anecdotal support for the model.     

Financial markets development,business cycles,and bank risk in South America

In this paper, we examine whether banking crises or business cycles affect the influence of financial markets development on bank risk in a sample of 37 publicly listed commercial banks in seven South American countries over a 22-year period between 1991 and 2012. Banking crises in this region offer a natural setting in which the impact of financial markets development on bank risk is examined. We find that financial markets development improves banks’ capitalization ratio and reduces their exposure to non-traditional banking activities, suggesting that financial markets development on average reduces bank risk. In addition, banking crises and business cycles appear to moderate the impact of financial markets development on bank risk. In the aftermath of banking crises, banks appear to concentrate more on their core traditional banking activities.     

Comparing early warning systems for banking crises

Despite the extensive literature on prediction of banking crises by Early Warning Systems (EWSs), their practical use by policy makers is limited, even in the international financial institutions. This is a paradox since the changing nature of banking risks as more economies liberalise and develop their financial systems, as well as ongoing innovation, makes the use of EWS for informing policies aimed at preventing crises more necessary than ever. In this context, we assess the logit and signal extraction EWS for banking crises on a comprehensive common dataset. We suggest that logit is the most appropriate approach for global EWS and signal extraction for country-specific EWS. Furthermore, it is important to consider the policy maker's objectives when designing predictive models and setting related thresholds since there is a sharp trade-off between correctly calling crises and false alarms.     

Theories of bank behavior under capital regulation

This paper reviews academic studies of bank capital regulation in an effort to evaluate the intellectual foundation for the imposition of the Basel I and Basel II systems of risk-based capital requirements. The theoretical literature yields general agreement about the immediate effects of capital requirements on bank lending and loan rates and the longer-term impacts on bank ratios of equity to total or risk-adjusted assets. This literature produces highly mixed predictions, however, regarding the effects of capital regulation on asset risk and overall safety and soundness for the banking system as a whole. Thus, the intellectual foundation for the present capital-regulation regime is not particularly strong. The mixed conclusions in the academic literature on banking certainly do not provide unqualified support for moving to an even more stringent and costly system of capital requirements. These widely ambiguous results do suggest, however, that assessing the implications of capital regulation for balance-sheet risk and monitoring effort in diverse banking systems is an important agenda for future theoretical research in the banking area.     

商业银行银行账户利率风险管理面临的挑战

银行账户利率风险是目前商业银行面临的主要市场风险之一。该文基于当前商业银行风险管理实践揭示其银行帐户利率风险管理在计量、运用方面面临的挑战,指出商业银行必须从制度、计量、监测、控制等方面逐步建立相应体系,以强化银行账户利率风险管理,适应监管要求和新资本协议要求。