Trade and agricultural development in the 1980s and the challenges for the 1990s: Asia

Asian developing countries have had varying experiences in trade and agricultural development in the 1980s, attributable in part to their differing stages of economic development and structural characteristics. Other important influences relate to the external economic environment and the policy choices made by their governments not only during the period but also in the preceding decade. The achievements of Asian developing countries under the adverse external conditions of the 1980s are discussed in terms of their macrocconomic and agricultural growth, the commodity structure of agricultural growth, their food production and trade, the expansion and diversification of their agricultural exports, and the policy and nonpolicy factors affecting them. Special attention is given to the role of policy reforms implemented in China and the South Asian countries, following similar policy developments in Northeast and Southeast Asia in the 1960s and 1970s, toward greater openness in their trade regime and increased private-sector participation in the economy. These reforms have contributed to the observed acceleration in gup , agricultural, and export growth in the 1980s. However, macroeconomic imbalances have emerged that threaten the sustainability of economic liberalization in those countries. The major challenges for the 1990s also differ among the Asian developing countries. In the industrially advanced Northeast economies of Taiwan and South Korea, the primary need is to ease the transition of the remaining rural population as farm incomes continue to fall and workers move to industrial and service activities. This challenge has to be addressed in the context of growing external pressure to further open their domestic market for agricultural imports. Among the Southeast and South Asian countries, there is a need to reduce the existing policy biases against agriculture, particularly against export crop production. Moreover, China and the South Asian countries face the additional challenges of continuing to deregulate their trade regime and internal markets, and of promoting macroeconomic stability. Despite the external trend recently toward regionalism, Asian developing countries generally seem committed to an open trading system, on which in fact their past impressive economic performance has been predicated. An important challenge for them in the 1990s is to play an active role in arresting and reversing any protectionist tendencies arising from the formation of regional trading blocs and to support multilateral initiatives such as the Uruguay Round that promote global trade liberalization.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.     

Agriculture’s Inter‐industry Linkages,Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms

As agricultural policy reform and its effects have become increasingly territorialised, analyses that attempt to explain or predict impacts need to be both more localised and to identify spill‐over effects. Local and regional general equilibrium approaches have become increasingly popular because they can extend predictions of policy shocks obtainable from partial equilibrium sectoral models to identify the wider effects. However, agriculture is usually described as a single sector in input–output accounts, whereas policy shocks that affect constituent commodities with differential impacts will have inter‐industry effects that are different to those implied by average input–output coefficients. Regionalisation of aggregated input–output tables adds further to these difficulties. The objective of this study is to develop a practical method for dealing with these problems. It describes the theoretical basis of aggregation bias and shows how it can be measured, in two contrasting case study regions in the UK and Sweden. Having established that this is a significant issue, a simple but effective procedure is demonstrated, based on additional information on variable costs, which transforms policy shocks from a direct change in agricultural output to that transmitted to the suppliers of inputs. This method provides an impact close to that which could be calculated if the general equilibrium system had indeed been disaggregated, and supports use of this approach in impact studies where insufficient time or funding are available for complete disaggregation of an agricultural sector’s regional accounts.     

我国农业保险政策实施的现状及建议

中国是农业灾害发生最为严重的国家之一,而农业风险控制的重要方式是农业保险,政策的指导与引领农业保险良好发展的需要。经过不断的探索,从2004年到2013年,我国为支持农业保险的稳健发展出台了一系列相关政策,已取得了比较明显的成效。但是不可否认的是,当前农业保险政策执行中存在着许多问题。面对国内外农业保险发展的新形势,完善和发展农业保险政策十分重要。本文通过深入分析农业保险政策实施过程中出现的一系列问题及原因,提出我国农业保险政策长足发展的建议。     

我国政策性农业保险的运行情况与发展对策

自2003年底以来我国政策性农业保险试点以政府引导、政策支持、市场运作、农民自愿为原则取得了重要成绩。这些成绩表现为形成了具有明显特征的六种试点模式,经营农业保险的市场主体逐渐增多,农业保费收入迅速攀升。与此同时,政策性农业保险试点需要在制度层面上思考并解决许多问题,诸如保险公司的盈利空间需要多大,财政补贴保费的比例需要多高,行政力量的干预力度需要多强,巨灾风险化解机制如何建立,缺少法律保障的农业保险如何健康发展等。     

Agricultural Policy in the 21st Century: Economics and Politics

This paper provides a framework for thinking about agricultural policy, why and how it is introduced, and how it changes over time. This framework suggests that agricultural policy will be influenced by both concerns for efficiency and lobbying. While agricultural policy will not always be effective, it will be relatively stable, at least in terms of its broad outlines. Underlying this broad stability, however, will be considerable small‐scale change as program and policy details shift in response to a changing environment. When policy changes in a major way, which it almost always will, the shift will be abrupt—a punctuation. These abrupt changes come as attention is eventually paid to areas and/or issues that are increasingly understood to be not working. While there is considerable room for economic analysis in the policy process, it will not be the main driver; this role belongs to politics—the ability to change the discourse around a policy issue in such a way that different evaluations and interpretations of the policy and its impact are created. Based on the analysis in this paper, it is argued that supply management is more likely to see significant change than business risk management programs, since more attention seems to be currently directed at the former issue. It is also argued that although proponents of local food, organic production, and urban agriculture have had some success at getting attention focused on these issues, this success will not translate into any major policy changes, in part because markets for these products are developing and appear to be working reasonably well.     

日本与欧美农业环境支持政策对中国的启示

农业政策中与环境相关的支付政策越来越多。发达国家将WTO绿箱政策、农业直接支付政策与农业环境支持政策结合起来,这样既可以从根本上解决农业生产所带来的安全问题,也可以加深消费者对相关政策的理解与支持,同时从产业链的上游解决食品安全及农业的可持续发展问题。欧盟的Greening政策和日本实施的农业直接支付政策均以农户遵守农药化肥及农业废弃物处理的相关规范为前提,通过合理使用肥料及各种防治措施从不同程度上达到农业可持续发展、农业的多功能性及降低温室气体排放的目的,并由此获取政府的支持。文章通过对发达国家,特别是与中国农业形态类似的日本农业环境政策取向的分析及与欧美相关政策比较分析,认为中国首先应该完善循环农业的相关法律法规和标准,加强对农民的培训以及明确其应遵守的基本义务,对采取环境友好型农业生产方式的农民给予支持。     

南宁名特优农产品产业的发展前景及对策研究

培育、发展、壮大包括名特优农产品产业在内的新型产业是优化农业产业结构、培育新的农业经济增长点、构建农业发展新业态新模式的重要选择。南宁名特优农产品产业发展已经取得明显成效:产业规模和效益不断扩大、产业政策体系日益健全、产业结构不断完善,在未来时期其产业地位将不断提升、产业消费市场持续扩大、资金和政策支持更有力、产业发展模式更加成熟和完善,呈现出更为广阔的发展前景和空间。推进南宁名特优农产品产业发展应重点从以下方面发力:发挥好政府宏观调和引导功能,增强名特优农产品产业发展的政策保障;优化名特优农产品产业发展与乡村振兴有效衔接机制;突出特色与挖掘潜力并重,扩大名特优农产品产业发展空间;创新融合发展模式,推进名特优农产品多元化发展。     

耕地资源价值重建与农业补贴--一种解决"三农"问题的政策取向

研究目的:从耕地资源的价值重建出发,探索在WTO<农业协议>框架下的农业补贴政策,提出一种缓解"三农"问题的新思路.研究方法:文献资料法和逻辑分析法.研究结果:耕地问题和"三农"问题息息相关,而耕地资源价值重建为农业补贴政策提供了理论依据和实施标准,农业补贴政策则为我国当前农民增收提供了一种政策途径.研究结论:(1)全面实现耕地资源的经济价值、认识价值的生产价值、道德价值的生产价值、以及审美价值的生产价值,对农民进行与农业生产不挂钩的直接补贴;(2)实现耕地资源的生态价值,对农民进行直接的农业环境保护补贴;(3)实现耕地资源的社会价值,建立农村社会保障体系并根据社会价值量的大小为农民支付部分保险费用.     

农地外部效益保护研究

研究目的:从农地外部效益角度,探讨农地保护产生机制及其政策缺陷,寻求改进措施。研究方法:现象溯因法、逻辑分析法。研究结果:农地保护实质主要是出于农地外部效益的考虑,政策缺乏公平补偿的经济激励而易失效。对症下药的构想是:增设农地外部效益财产权赋予农民,国家筹资组织购买以实现补偿。研究结论:界定与保障农地外部效益财产权是未来农地保护政策改进值得思考的选择。     

The Crow Rate Issue: A Retrospective on the Contributions of the Agricultural Economics Profession in Canada

The Crow rate policy issue is finally being put to rest. It has been a major agricultural policy issue in Canada over the past 20 years, and agricultural economists should have had a great deal to contribute to the policy debate. The contribution of the profession is critically assessed. While much of the research undertaken was of high quality, the profession's aggregate contribution was much less than what might have been possible. A number of shortcomings of the research system are identified, and some lessons for researchers and those who fund research are provided.     

Policy Regimes and Performance of the Agricultural Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean During the Last Three Decades

In a review of the policy regimes and agricultural output performance in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) during the past three decades, the linear sequence of pre-reform, crisis and reform, and post-reform recovery is qualified, focusing on a sample of nine LAC countries. The sector did quite well during the ISI policy regime, criticized for its price discrimination, and does not show the assumed characteristics of the 'lost decade' during most of the 1980s, as even agricultural exports (in constant terms) remained important, only to suffer from drops in international prices. Residually treated in the macro-oriented reforms, it has never regained the growth rates under the SAP policy regime, while it was expected that it would benefit more than others. These unorthodox conclusions are founded on a detailed investigation into agricultural output and export performance, correlating it with a reform index (on a country basis).     

广东省政策性农业保险巨灾基金测算及管理模式分析

2012我国出台了《农业保险条例》,为我国政策性农业保险提供了法律保障,也为政策性农业保险发展奠定了基础。广东是农业自然灾害频发的地区,主要农业自然灾害风险包括热带气旋、洪涝灾害等,这些自然灾害给农业生产带来巨大损失,急需建立完善的巨灾损失风险分担机制。巨灾基金是分散巨灾风险的重要形式,国内部分地区,如：上海和浙江等地都建立农业政策性衣业保险巨灾基金。本文在分析广东农业风险的基础上探讨了广东省政策性农业保险巨灾基金的规模测度,同时分析了其管理模式。     

'Sowing the Seeds of Their Own Destruction': Southern Planters, State Policy and the Market, 1933–1975

In this article, I examine the relationship between class, state and market. I analyse the process of class transformation, tracing the demise of the Southern planters. Scholars analysing the retrenchment of US agricultural policy in the 1970s frequently overlook the profound influence that this class segment had on the agricultural policy of price supports and production controls. Yet, this policy of supply management contributed to the transformation of the plantation–tenant system in the South. This transformation created an opportunity for the emergence of the civil rights movement, which further weakened the Southern planters and allowed for changes in agricultural policy. The retrenchment of agricultural policy between 1950 and 1975, then, must be understood in light of this process of class transformation.     

农业支持政策结构变迁的国际比较分析

[目的]在多哈回合谈判再次要求削减黄箱政策背景下,通过量化比较分析典型发达国家和地区在多哈回合谈判前后农业支持政策结构变化趋势,为中国农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农业支持政策改革提供方向借鉴。[方法]使用OECD农业政策评价指标对比分析欧盟、美国、日本和中国4个国家和地区农业支持力度、支持结构的变化趋势。[结果]发达国家和地区积极创新农业支持手段以替代市场价格支持,加快农业支持政策的市场化转变,强调支持政策与资源环境保护的交互作用,注重对农业知识和创新体系的资金投入。[结论]我国应持续加大对农业的支持力度,逐渐减少市场价格支持比重,创新支持工具并强化政策间的协调性,优化一般服务支持结构,加大对农业知识和创新体系的财政投入。     

Smallholder farms’ adaptation to the impacts of climate change: Evidence from China’s Loess Plateau

The impacts of climate change on agriculture in developing countries will depend on the extent to which agricultural production in those regions adapts to climate change’s influences. This study uses a whole-farm land use optimisation approach to explore climate change impacts, when including adaptation, on farm profitability, production and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Loess Plateau of northern China. The results show that with adaptation activities, the losses in smallholder farm profitability caused by the climate change could be moderate. Declining rainfall results in land use changes that generate higher on-farm GHG emissions with the most economically beneficial adaptations. With 5 % or 10 % decline in annual rainfall, the introduction of agricultural carbon tax would generate substantial reduction in on-farm GHG emissions. With 30 % rainfall reduction, agricultural carbon tax is not likely to bring about considerable emission reduction. The economically optimised land uses are generally sensitive to potential changes. When rainfall reductions appear, there is a clear trend toward reducing cropping area and transiting to pasture. With 5–10% rainfall reductions, increasing agricultural carbon tax with same rainfall reduction leads to the expansion in cropping enterprises. However, with 30 % rainfall reduction, land allocations are not sensitive to agricultural carbon tax. When with declining annual rainfall, in the optimal enterprises more oats-pasture rotations are employed to reduce wheat dominated rotations. Besides land use patterns, adaptations through altering farm management practices are also necessary. The economically optimised sheep flock would be increased considerably with declining rainfall. Overall, policymakers are suggested to initial more educational schemes to tell smallholder farmers how to make the best use of available adaptation strategies and consider changes in climate when design and implement agricultural policy.     

Agriculture and the environment: A review of major issues in the UK

Recent advances in the productivity of UK agriculture have had an adverse impact on the environment. In contrast to the view that environmental impacts can be minimized by moderating agricultural practice, conservationists increasingly believe that some fundamental changes in agricultural policy and practice are required. It seems that this may push agriculture into two distinct sectors—one concerned primarily with countryside management and one with food production. A rural land use strategy is needed which makes proper provision for the protection and management of amenity areas integrated with appropriate forms of agricultural production.     

Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Agriculture and development: revisiting the policy narratives

This essay questions the way the findings from research on agriculture in poor countries tend to be summarized in policy narratives, and more specifically the role agricultural economics tends to play in this process. I conclude that there is a tendency to overstate the role agriculture plays in development and, as a result, some of the wrong battles are being fought in the policy advocacy arena, and inappropriate advice is being offered to policy makers. A more open and self‐critical approach to the place of agriculture in development would be more helpful for policy design.     

Agriculture's 'multifunctionality' and the WTO

Are the agricultural policy reforms embodied in the Uruguay Round consistent with meeting domestic policy objectives such as providing adequate food security, environmental protection and viability of rural areas? This article examines the claim that agriculture deserves more price support and import protection than other sectors because of the non‐marketed externalities and public goods it produces jointly with marketable food and fibre (agriculture’s so‐called ‘multifunctionality’). Do these unrewarded positive externalities exceed the negative externalities from farming by more than the net positive externalities produced by other sectors? To what extent are those farmer‐produced spillovers under‐supplied, and what are the most efficient ways to boost their production to the socially optimal levels? The article concludes that there is little trade‐off required to meet domestic policy objectives on the one hand and agricultural protection reform objectives as embodied in WTO rules on the other.