Issues relating to Agricultural Pricing Policies and their Analysis in Developing Countries

Agricultural pricing policies in developing countries are often the result of complex interactions between producer, consumer and merchant groups and their relative effectiveness in influencing government decision making. Even within governments, various ministries often have opposing views. In this environment one of the contributions a policy analyst can make is to attempt to quantify the effects of different policy options. This permits a more informed discussion which hopefully leads to better decision-making and an improved incentive environment. Many analyses of agricultural pricing policies have used the standard partial equilibrium analysis where no linkages between commodity markets were considered. In this paper we have considered cross-price effects. Also, we have discussed issues relating to other adjustments/refinements of the standard method so that a practitioner not familiar with the various methods can form an opinion of what the options are and what adjustments may be appropriate for a particular case in question. The adjustments relate to overvaluation of currencies, input price distortions, differences in the degree of distortions between producers and consumers, and variability of border prices. The inclusion of cross-price elasticities was important for assessing production, consumption and trade effects for Argentina, but for the other countries it resulted in only somewhat improved accuracy. The adjustment for exchange rates had a large impact in Egypt and was important for other countries as well. This underlines the importance of exchange rates as key variables for agricultural pricing policies in general. The numbers show that the traditional taxation policies of agricultural products in the sample of developing countries is somewhat less widespread than in the past. These policies, however, continue to favor consumers over producers, with significant losses for some of the latter. The large size of welfare losses, especially compared to efficiency losses, highlights the importance of correcting distorted prices that adversely affect the poorest sections of society. Also, the usual government objective of taxing producers to raise revenues is frequently defeated by the large subsidies provided to consumers. For the partitioner, for whom time is often of the essence, the assessment of welfare effects using the partial equilibrium method may provide reasonably good ‘first cut’ estimates of the order of magnitude of the impact of distortions. But often, these 'base case estimates' can and should be adjusted for a number of possible factors. The analyst needs to determine how important accurate estimates of key variables are to the policy makers; he or she then needs to compare the costs involved in generating or gathering the data and doing the calculations with the benefits of a broader and more accurate analysis of the distortionary effects of the particular case in question.     

THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY GREEK FARMERS

This paper investigates empirically the impact of inflation on the terms of trade, prices received and paid, for Greek farmers in the period 1967–87. According to conventional theory, inflation can have a non-neutral effect if it is unanticipated and if prices received and paid by farmers exhibit different degrees of flexibility. However, in the case where prices are administered, inflation neutrality depends on government's policy objectives and ability to adjust prices of inputs and outputs to the rate of inflation. The empirical investigation undertaken in this study shows that pricing policies implemented by the Greek government have resulted in neutralising the impact of inflation on the terms of trade for Greek farmers. Furthermore, the observed significant variability of the terms of trade can be attributed solely to real demand and supply factors.     

Interaction between livestock and feeds policies: evidence from Southeast Asia

Consumption of livestock products in Southeast Asia could continue to increase rapidly, as has been the case in Northeast Asia. The extent to which domestic producers may respond to these demand developments will be influenced by government interventions in both livestock product and feeds markets. The paper analyses the net contribution of livestock product and feed price distortions on the effective rate of protection, and whether intervention in the commodity market is augmented or offset by intervention in the feeds market. While policy-induced distortions were found to exist in the livestock sectors of Thailand and Malaysia, especially in beef and dairy production, the contribution of feeds policies to these distortions was minimal. In contrast implicit taxes on feeds were high in Indonesia and the Philippines. In the latter, support on product prices was sufficient to more than offset the tax on feeds so that effective protection remained positive. But in Indonesia both livestock and feeds policies worked to provide disincentives to livestock production. It is concluded that livestock and feeds policies should be formulated with regard to objectives and priorities within both sectors. This could require that greater emphasis be placed on feeds sector assistance policies that do not affect the price of feeds.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE TAX SUBSIDIES TO THE DAIRY SECTORS IN CANADA,GERMANY NEW ZEALAND AND THE UNITED STATES

Subsidies to agricultural producers through domestic tax and social programme policies are generally not included in producer subsidy equivalent (PSE) measures. This study examines the price induced distortions of domestic tax policy and social programmes on dairy trade between Canada, New Zealand, Germany, and the United States. The degree of tax subsidisation and the price subsidies needed to offset the tax and social programme advantages enjoyed by each country are estimated using a simulation model. Study findings suggest that current German taxation policy provides a substantial subsidy to dairy producers. Canadian and US farmers also have some trade advantages because of tax policy and social programmes.     

Agricultural price distortions: trends and volatility,past, and prospective

Historically, earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro‐urban bias in own‐country policies, as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies reduced global economic welfare and agricultural trade, and added to global inequality and poverty. Over the past three decades, much progress has been made in reducing agricultural protection in high‐income countries and agricultural disincentives in developing countries. However, plenty of price distortions remain. As well, the propensity of governments to insulate their domestic food market from fluctuations in international prices has not waned. Such insulation contributes to the amplification of international food price fluctuations, yet it does little to advance national food security when food‐importing and food‐exporting countries equally engage in insulating behavior. Thus there is still much scope to improve global economic welfare via multilateral agreement not only to remove remaining trade distortions but also to desist from varying trade barriers when international food prices gyrate. This article summarizes indicators of trends and fluctuations in farm trade barriers before examining unilateral or multilateral trade arrangements, together with complementary domestic measures, that could lead to better global food security outcomes.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WORLD PRICE INSTABILITY AND THE PRICES FARMERS RECEIVE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

World prices for agricultural commodities are traditionally unstable, but they were particularly turbulent during the late 1970s and early 1980s. This paper uses available post-War data on individual commodity prices to test whether world price instability is increasing, and to examine its impact on the prices producers receive in developing countries. It is found that the recent turbulence was more a statistical fluke than the beginning of any longer-term increase in market instability. Further, while the variability in world prices has been almost entirely transmitted to developing countries in the dollar value of their export unit values, it has not been fully transmitted to average producer prices. Real exchange rates, domestic marketing arrangements and government intervention have acted to buffer price movements for producers in many developing countries.     

On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries

Time series analysis of annual data for a sample of developing countries shows the allocation of government spending shocks, both positive and negative, between price inflation and output growth. Cross-country regressions evaluate determinants of the difference in the real effects of government spending shocks. If the real effects decrease, capacity constraints are more binding and if they increase, the elasticity of aggregate demand is larger with respect to the change in government spending. Cross-country regressions also evaluate the implications of government spending shocks on the difference in trend price inflation and output growth. The variability of government spending shocks decreases trend real output growth and increases trend price inflation across countries.     

WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE NEW GATT ROUND

World agricultural markets are grossly imbalanced with supplies running well ahead of demand at current depressed world prices. At the heart of the problem is the high protection given to agriculture in many OECD countries. In particular, price supports to farmers are too high and incentives to maintain or expand production too great. The success of the Uruguay Round in achieving greater liberalisation of trade in agriculture will depend on the willingness of participating governments to undertake significant reforms of domestic agricultural policies, with the aim of reducing overall protection to agriculture and switching support measures away from direct producer price support to income aid for specific disadvantaged producers. In some countries, this notion has run up against complex politico-social and structural objectives, which prevent these countries from agreeing to any significant price reduction. Price support policies, however, have been ineffective in the long run in retarding the outmigration of labour from agriculture. Measures involving only quantitative controls on production will be useful in the short run to reduce surpluses but will not solve the underlying problems which the new GATT Round must address.     

On the Transmission Mechanism of Policy Shocks in Developing Countries

The debate over the effectiveness of demand-side stabilizing policies has often centred over the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. Demand- and supply-side constraints are both relevant. On the supply side, price flexibility may be the result of structural and/or institutional constraints that warrant a larger degree of price adjustment in the face of demand fluctuations. On the demand side, structural constraints may hinder the transmission mechanism of demand fluctuations, resulting in an inelastic aggregate demand in the face of policy adjustments. Using data for 50 developing countries, supply-side constraints do not differentiate the transmission mechanism of policy shocks to price inflation and output growth. In contrast, a larger demand shift in the face of monetary and government spending shocks increases the real and inflationary effects of policy shocks. The pronounced evidence of upward price flexibility points to the importance of addressing supply-side capacity constraints to counter inflationary pressures in developing countries. Equally important is to analyse determinants of private spending to identify channels for influencing aggregate spending and maximizing the effectiveness of stabilization policies.     

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial‐equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase in 2011/2012 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and a significant contraction of production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non‐OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and the location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non‐OECD countries.     

Least-cost cheap-food policies: some implications of international food aid

Many low-income countries pursue cheap-food policies in which consumers pay subsidized prices for bread, rice and other staples. This paper addresses the issue of why different governments select different food subsidy policies, using multiple instruments rather than a simple across-the-board subsidy to provide consumers with access to cheap food. It examines the optimal structure of cheap-food policies in the context of a partial equilibrium model in which the country may he large in trade, and is able to combine import subsidies or tariffs, and output taxes or subsidies, to transfer income to consumers through the market. The model allows for a marginal opportunity cost of government revenues greater than one dollar. In addition, in the model, food aid from overseas may be either given away to the consumer, or given to the government for subsequent sale in the domestic market. The results indicate that only by happenstance will a country choose to use a pure consumption subsidy or a pure import subsidy to transfer income to consumers. In addition, an increase in international food aid does not necessarily lead the government to reduce producer and consumer prices for a commodity.     

Grain price stabilization in India: Evaluation of policy alternatives

Stabilization of prices is an important element of food policy in India as in most other countries — both developing and eveloped. However, since the magnitude of grain stocks held for this purpose as well as the costs of physical storage have become prohibitively high, there is now a need for finding cost-effective alternatives including non interventionist and market-oriented methods for price stabilization. In this paper we consider the case of rice and wheat which are staple foodgrains in India. We make a comparison between alternative price stabilization policies including that of holding buffer stocks in terms of their impact on domestic price stability, producer and consumer welfare and government costs. A multi-market equilibrium framework is used where private storage, consumption, supply and prices of rice and wheat are determined simultaneously. Indian exports and imports are assumed to affect world prices. The alternative price stabilizing mechanisms are ranked according to both the criteria, welfare and price stability achieved. The main findings are as follows. The ranking of alternatives varies with the criterion used. Greater price stability need not necessarily imply greater welfare. The option of variable levies on private external trade turns out to be the most inexpensive and that of domestic buffer stocks the costliest in achieving price stability. Further, the efficacy of buffer stocks and subsidy to private storage in stabilizing prices is lower under free trade as compared to the case where the economy is closed to private external trade.     

Land use and economic effects of alternative biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States

Being the two largest ethanol producers in the world, biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States affect both their domestic markets and the global food and biofuel economy. In this article we develop a price endogenous mathematical programming model to simulate and analyze the impacts of biofuel mandates and trade distortions on land use, agricultural commodity and transportation fuel markets, and global environment. We find that an 80% increase in total biofuel production from its 103 billion liter baseline level to the mandated 183 billion liter level in 2022 can be achieved with less than 2% increase in total cropland use in both countries. In the United States, this would occur with cellulosic biofuels meeting nearly half of the biofuels consumed and produced largely on cropland pasture and corn ethanol meeting the rest of the mandate and resulting in a 2% increase in corn price. In Brazil, the expansion in sugarcane production would be achieved by reducing land under pasture and a marginal increase in intensification of livestock production. In the aggregate, biofuel policies increase economic surplus in both countries by 1% and redistribute the benefits from agricultural consumers to agricultural producers and the fuel sector. Finally, we also find that full implementation of the mandates in North America, China, and the European Union would reduce the global life‐cycle global greenhouse gas emissions by about 5%.     

LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

Impact and implications of price policy and land degradation on agricultural growth in developing countries

In many developing countries, a high proportion of the population resides and works in rural areas. Agriculture is the dominant sector in rural areas and has the greatest concentration of poverty: landless workers, small tenant farmers, and small farm owners. Thus, any development strategy that is directed towards increasing employment and alleviating a country's hunger must concentrate on sustainable agricultural growth. Historically, economic development in most countries has been based on exploitation of natural resources, particularly land resources. Soil erosion and land degradation have been serious worldwide. Due to reasons such as high population pressure on land and limited fossil energy supplies, land degradation is generally more serious in the developing world. Empirical studies show that soil erosion and degradation of agricultural land not only decrease the land productivity but they can also result in major downstream or off-site damage which may be several times that of on-site damage. In promoting industrialization, governments of many developing countries adopt a package of price and other policies that reduce agricultural production incentives and encourage a flow of resources out of agriculture. Increasing evidence shows that these policies cause a substantial efficiency or social welfare loss, and a great loss in foreign exchange earnings. In addition, a World Bank study on the effect of price distortions on economic growth rates concluded that neither rich resource endowments, nor a high stage of economic development, nor privatization are able to make up the adverse effects caused by high price distortions. This analysis is primarily concerned with identifying the factors that determine the agricultural production growth rate and in testing the effects these factors have on agricultural growth in developing countries. Specifically, this study involves statistical estimation of an aggregate agricultural growth function based on cross-country data for 28 developing countries. Special attention is devoted to land degradation and agricultural pricing policy, and to the policy implications resulting from the effects these variables have on agricultural and food production growth. The overall results of this study show that price distortions in the economy and land degradation had statistically significant negative impacts while the change in arable and permanent land was positively related to the growth of agricultural production and food production in 28 developing countries from 1971 to 1980. These results emphasize the importance of ‘getting prices right’ and implementation of sustainable land and water management practices if future growth in food and agricultural output is to be realized and sustained in developing countries.     

How would global trade liberalization affect rural and regional incomes in Australia?

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on Australia’s terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which has had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non‐farm price‐ and trade‐distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new estimates of the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions: first, to model their net impact on Australia’s terms of trade (using the World Bank’s Linkage model of the global economy); and second, to model the effects of that terms of trade impact on output and real incomes in rural versus urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using Monash’s multi‐regional TERM model of the Australian economy).     

Decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps: an application to Russia

The article develops a method for decomposing changes in agricultural price gaps, defined as the difference between a commodity's domestic producer and border prices. We use OECD's procedure for decomposing changes in the market price support part of producer support estimates as the starting point for our decomposition method, and our method provides a basis for critiquing OECD's decomposition approach. The transmission of changes in border prices (world prices and the exchange rate) to domestic prices is a key element in the decomposition. The method is demonstrated using Russian agricultural price gaps. The results support the argument that for Russian agriculture during the transition period, the main cause of changes in price gaps has been incomplete transmission of changes in the exchange rate to domestic prices, and where the weak transmission results mainly not from policy intervention, but rather from deficient market conditions, in particular poor market infrastructure. The policy implication is that underdeveloped infrastructure has strongly limited the benefits to the Russian economy from agricultural trade liberalization.     

Cocoa pricing options and their implications for poverty and industrialization in Ghana

This study establishes the cocoa pricing subsidization options that will stabilize processors’ throughput while meeting the multiple, but possibly conflicting, public policy objectives of maximizing government revenue and reducing poverty among Ghanaian cocoa beans producers. To evaluate these options, we construct and numerically simulate a structural dynamic stochastic model of a representative cocoa processor who maximizes the present value of current and expected future profits, given prevailing market conditions and cocoa pricing policies. Our results indicate that, given current processing capacity, the Ghana Cocoa Board would have to offer a 92% discount to processors on main‐crop beans in order to achieve the industrial goal of locally processing 40% of annual production. This would cause light‐crop beans used in processing to be completely displaced by main‐crop beans carried over as inventory. It would also increase mean processor revenues by 167%, but cause the Ghana Cocoa Board to operate at a significant deficit, implying that the stated goal could only be achieved through massive government subsidies.     

An Evaluation of Indian Government Rice Policy in Tamil Nadu

The Indian government procures rice from wholesalers or producers at a price below the market price and then distributes it to low-income consumers at a subsidized price. This paper uses a simulataneous equations econometric model to evaluate the effects of this policy on supply/demand of rice in the state of Tamil Nadu, between 1956 and 1985. Results show that production is more responsive to power for irrigation and fertilizer prices than to output prices. Because supply is inelastic, producers bear the burden of the ‘tax’ imposed by procurement even though rice is procured from the wholesaler. Rice distributed by the government displaces rice demanded in the open market, and thus the government distribution of rice has not increased the total consumption of rice.     

Wheat policy and economy-wide reform in Brazil

In recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy-induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector-specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic antiinflation policy, and it coincided with other economy-wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.