A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements

We apply real options modeling to a common pharmaceutical industry licensing arrangement to take into account various uncertainties and the flexibility value. The managerial flexibility is limited to the project abandonment option. We extend previous work by incorporating the phases required to bring the project from patent approval to market. We also incorporate a deterministic variable into the cash flow process that provides a realistic product lifecycle. We focus on the allocation of project value between licensor and licensee, i.e., the so-called “profit split” ratio (PSR) because it is commonly used in practice to negotiate terms. We find: (1) Ignoring the managerial flexibility in valuation may cause the licensee to either forego an acceptable deal or enter into an inferior deal. (2) The magnitude of project profitability as well as cost and sales uncertainty affects the licensor's bargaining power over compensation for granting abandonment flexibility to the licensee. (3) Managers must exercise care when estimating sales volatility because the flexibility value is more sensitive to sales volatility than it is to cost volatility. (4) Failure to incorporate the product lifecycle will produce suboptimal capital investment decisions.     

Joint venture evolution: extending the real options approach

Real options theory has emerged as a promising avenue to study joint venture (JV) evolution as a strategic response to managing uncertainty. We extend the real options approach by integrating it with game theory. Such a combined method enriches the valuation functions of each partnering firm and helps to identify the optimal decisions for exercising options in a JV. In our model, each firm's synergy from the joint operation and its knowledge acquisition capability (KAC) can significantly influence the competitive dynamics between partners, potentially affecting how each firm decides to acquire, divest, or dissolve. We employ a new solution technique in real options theory to capture the stochastic process of three factors, and use computer simulation to test the model under varying conditions. The results are stated in five testable propositions, providing a better understanding of the dynamics of a JV. We find that symmetries between partners in synergy or KAC contribute to stability or dissolution of the JV, whereas asymmetries in synergy or KAC make acquisition of the JV assets by one partner desirable. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trading constraints penalizing default: A recursive approach

This paper proves existence of an ergodic Markov equilibrium for a class of general equilibrium economies with infinite horizon, incomplete markets, and default. Agents may choose to deny their liabilities and face trading constraints that depend on the adjusted amount of past default on each asset. These constraints replace the usual utility penalties and explore intertemporal tie-ins that appear in dynamic economies. The equilibrium prices and solvency rates present stationary properties that are usually required in econometric models of credit risk.     

A real options approach to optimal bidding in construction projects considering volume uncertainty

Building on the numerical solution by Ribeiro et al. (2108), this paper proposes a model to assess the impact of volume uncertainty on construction projects' value and on the optimal bidding price. The model's outcome is the threshold amount for the incremental investment that managers have to undertake in order to resolve the uncertainty regarding the volume of work to be performed. Any amount of investment below the threshold will add value to the project and produces a more competitive bid price. A numerical example is presented, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to the model's most relevant components.     

Contagion between real estate and financial markets: A Bayesian quantile-on-quantile approach

We study contagion between Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and the equity market in the U.S. over four sub-samples covering January, 2003 to December, 2017, by using Bayesian nonparametric quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regressions with heteroskedasticity. We find that the spillovers from the REITs on to the equity market has varied over time and quantiles defining the states of these two markets across the four sub-samples, thus providing evidence of shift-contagion. Further, contagion from REITs upon the stock market went up during the global financial crisis particularly, and also over the period corresponding to the European sovereign debt crisis, relative to the pre-crisis period. Our main findings are robust to alternative model specifications of the benchmark Bayesian QQ model, especially when we control for omitted variable bias using the heteroskedastic error structure. Our results have important implications for various agents in the economy namely, academics, investors and policymakers.     

Valuation of options on the maximum of two prices with default risk under GARCH models

In this paper, we work under GARCH models to value options on the maximum or the minimum of two prices. In addition, we consider not only two underlying asset prices but also geometric average ones. Further, default risk is also incorporated in a reduced-form model. In the proposed framework, closed-form pricing formulae of options on the maximum with or without default risk are derived and then used to perform numerical examples.     

The choice between greenfield investment and cross-border acquisition: A real option approach

The purpose of this study is to formalize the choice of market entry strategy for an individual multinational enterprise (MNE) from a dynamic perspective. It is argued that incorporating a suitable treatment of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility related to a MNEs investment decision gives further insights to the choice of cross-border acquisitions to greenfield investment as the preferred entry mode. In most cases, the initial entry strategy serves as a platform allowing the firm to make subsequent investments to exploit host-country advantages and capabilities. We allow for this by taking a two-step expansion strategy explicitly into account. The evolutionary process of the value of the foreign direct investment includes two stochastic elements as well as the timing that triggers the transition from export to foreign direct investment. The results suggest that uncertainty and future investment opportunities play an important role when it comes to transit from export to the first phase of the foreign direct investment commitment as well as have an impact on the choice of entry strategy.     

Creating comprehensive leadership pipelines: Applying the real options approach to organizational leadership development

Typically, firms consider leadership development (i.e., training focused on skills required for success in leadership roles) and succession planning (i.e., the creation and implementation of long-term plans that address changes in top leadership roles) as two distinct organizational initiatives. In recent years, however, scholars and practitioners have called for a new, more comprehensive approach that considers the organization as a system. Rather than considering succession planning and leadership development as distinctly different initiatives, organizations should work to create internal leadership pipelines that span entry-level employees to executives. To leverage potential advantages associated with instituting comprehensive leadership pipelines and to address practical concerns associated with risk and talent management, we propose the introduction of incremental investment in organization-wide leadership development programs via distinct, evaluative stages – a real options reasoning (ROR) approach to leadership. We argue that blending ROR with skills-based leadership models diversifies risk associated with investments in talent management and increases the ability for targeted, purposeful investment in potential organizational leaders.     

An interaction approach to global sourcing: A case study of IKEA

This study explores the process of global sourcing through a case of the Swedish furnishing retailer IKEA from an interaction perspective. With a point of departure in the streams of existing research on global sourcing and the internationalization process of firms through networks, a research question is proposed concerning supply network interactions as an influence in the global sourcing process. The study uses an in-depth qualitative case study methodology, focusing on IKEA and its development of a supply network for the PAX wardrobe system during the years 2003–2009. The findings draw on 29 interviews in Sweden and China, ranging from interviews with the supply management function of IKEA to interviews with Swedish and Chinese suppliers and sub-suppliers. The findings show that the global sourcing process is influenced by interactions and network effects between supply network actors. In particular, we find that relationships between suppliers were identified and set up by IKEA, but cascaded into deeper interactions amongst suppliers at different supply network tiers. Our study contributes to global sourcing research in indicating the importance of interaction amongst supply network actors, showing how the global sourcing strategy of one actor may significantly influence the sourcing strategies of other actors. Global sourcing decisions therefore need to be understood and coordinated across global supply networks.     

The micro-processes of supplier satisfaction: A longitudinal multiple case study

Supplier satisfaction has often been argued to be an important determinant for supplier performance in the buyer-supplier relationship. The micro-processes of how supplier satisfaction develops and how it relates to supplier performance, however, are not well understood. By means of a longitudinal multiple case study design of 18 buyer-supplier relationships, this paper provides insights into the micro-processes of how supplier satisfaction develops. Our findings provide several new insights. First, we observed how supplier satisfaction levels showed little change even though the buyer's behavior did not align with the supplier's expectations, thereby nuancing current conceptualizations of supplier satisfaction being a function of expected and realized relational value. Second, we show how intra organizational dynamics at the supplier influence the relationship between supplier satisfaction and supplier performance. Third, our findings give insights into the complex interplay between the relational and economic antecedents of supplier satisfaction.     

Decision tree analysis and real options: a reconciliation

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate in a simple framework how decision tree analysis (DTA) and real options approach (ROA) yield the same results when markets are complete. The common scepticism regarding DTA has its roots in the incorrect assumption that one can apply the same discount rate to the project cash flows and the value of the investment opportunity when the decision maker has the option to defer investment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lock-in situations in supply chains: A social exchange theoretic study of sourcing arrangements in buyer–supplier relationships

Social exchange theory is used to gain a better understanding of the relationship between a buyer and a supplier that is characterized by lock-in situations. We begin by reviewing the theoretical foundations of social exchange theory. Next, we use an illustrative multinational business example from a Danish Business Group to demonstrate the complexities of the lock-in situation. Conjectures related to lock-in behaviors are initially developed and then examined by means of a game-theoretic model. The analysis provides a basis for the development of propositions which are examined employing a behavioral experiment. The results indicate that the optimal pricing strategy of the supplier is to lower the price with increasing demand and the optimal investment intensity of the buyer decreases with increasing demand. The paper concludes by presenting directions for future research.     

Modern pandemic crises and default risk: Worldwide evidence

This article examines the relationship between modern health pandemic crises and financial stability. Specifically, it collects data on 250,223 firms in 43 countries (or regions) during five modern pandemic crises, SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016), and finds that pandemic crises significantly increase the default risk of enterprises. Further analysis shows that formal and informal institutions acted as a “cushion” against the pandemic crisis. The earlier a country adopts IFRS, the more unimpeded access to information, and the more stable religious and ethnic relations within the country can reduce the negative impact of a pandemic on financial stability. This article addresses the hitherto inadequacy of COVID-related data. In addition, this article argues that governments should build sound state institutions to withstand macroeconomic shocks and highlights the heterogeneity of default risk for enterprises operating in countries with different institutions.     

A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty

In this paper we develop and test theory regarding whether entrepreneurs contemplating starting a new venture account for the value of the option to defer the entry decision. While others have illuminated the theoretical applicability of real options theory to entrepreneurship, empirical evidence in this context is lacking. Consistent with predictions derived from real options theory, we find that high uncertainty in the target industry dissuades entry, and that the irreversibility of the entry decision moderates this relationship. Furthermore, we find that the irreversibility of the investment decision can be influenced by industry‐level, firm‐level and even individual‐level factors. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volatility estimation for stock index options: A GARCH approach

The objective of this paper is to compare the mispricing of option valuation models when alternate techniques are applied to the volatility estimation. Akgiray (1989) shows that out-of-sample forecasts of return variances of stock indices based on a GARCH model are superior predictors of the actual ex-post variances in comparison to forecasts generated using standard rolling regression methods. A second objective of this study is to examine if Akgiray's results carry over to option valuation. Although we find that the implied volatility technique results in the least mispricing, within the class of forecasts using only historic returns data, the use of GARCH models will also significantly reduce model mispricing.     

Organisational design implications of global sourcing: A multiple case study analysis on the application of control mechanisms

Global sourcing has become an intended practice for many multinational corporations. Organisational design implications of global sourcing are rarely considered although they are one of the main facets of a global sourcing strategy. By elaborating on the information processing perspective of contingency theory, we derive explanations for the application of different control mechanisms in the global sourcing context. Our findings from case studies at eight multinational companies suggest that variations in control mechanisms can be explained by two contingencies: (1) corporate organisational structure and (2) the distribution of purchasing expertise among subsidiaries. Based on these case study findings, we formulate ten propositions for future research.     

US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks

Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post‐shift period. In this paper, we re‐examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks. A Bayesian methodology is applied, incorporating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulators. In contrast to previous analyses, we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947–1992 period, despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An optimization approach to strategic sourcing: A case study of the United States Air Force

The DoD annually procures billions of dollars worth of systems, supplies, and services in support of the national military strategy. Faced with budget cuts and other resource constraints, the DoD must transform its procurement process to ensure cost-effective sourcing of critical supplies and services. One aspect of current transformation in the DoD is the use of a strategic sourcing approach for the procurement of services at military installations. Using the Air Force's strategic sourcing process as our context, we developed an optimization model for selecting a set of proposals from among multiple offerors for services to be performed at multiple installations. The selection achieves the most favorable objective by balancing the confidence level in an offeror's past performance with the cost of services to the Air Force. The research findings, which are based on a realistic scenario, demonstrate improvements over the current sourcing process in both overall performance and cost.