Investigating fit in supply chain integration: A systematic literature review on context,practices, performance links

This paper offers a systematic literature review on the fit among context, supply chain integration (SCI) and performance based on the analysis of 116 articles published in 28 peer-reviewed journals. By using Venkatraman's (1989) model, which distinguishes fit into different forms, to frame previous literature, and Hakansson's (1982) interaction model to classify the investigated contextual variables, the present research offers an original lens through which to examine the results found and to identify some open and unsolved issues and opportunities for future research. Based on these results, the research concludes that the most used forms of fit are mediation and moderation. Some examples of popular research topics include the moderating role of uncertainty/complexity in influencing SCI benefits and the role of SCI as a prerequisite for other operations and supply chain management practices. In addition, future research opportunities exist in several areas, including (1) the adoption of a behavioural operations supply chain management perspective and institutional theory to study SCI antecedents, and (2) the study of national culture as a moderator of the link between SCI and performance. However, the most promising research opportunities come from the less used fit forms (e.g. profile deviation and fit as matching) and from combinations of multiple fit forms that could help to address some unsolved issues in SCI, such as the balance between upstream and downstream integration and optimal SCI profiles. The arguments discussed could be useful for both academics and practitioners interested in the SCI-performance link and the role of context.     

Some reflections on past and future of nonlinear dynamics in economics and finance

This paper offers an overview of the literature on the economic and financial applications of theory of nonlinear dynamics, especially bifurcation theory. After a short introductory discussion of the first nonlinear dynamic models in social sciences and the economic relevance of the zoo of bifurcations and complicated dynamics that such models can generate, we present an overview of the literature on nonlinear dynamic models in the areas of underdevelopment, environmental poverty traps, the management of common goods, industrial organization and financial markets. The review of the literature is enriched by reflections and ideas for future research.     

From Hot Cakes to Cold Feet: A Contingent Perspective on the Relationship between Market Uncertainty and Status Homophily in the Formation of Alliances

In this study, we reconsider the classical positive association between the level of market uncertainty and an organization's propensity to form ties with organizations of similar status. Although prior research argues that the greater the uncertainty, the higher the level of status homophily, we suggest that this relationship is contingent upon framing that affects positive or negative valence towards uncertainty. In an up market, organizations tend to frame uncertainty as upside risk, and thus will subsequently favour explorative uncertainty‐mitigation devices; whereas, in a down market, organizations primarily frame uncertainty as downward risk, and thus will rely on more conservative uncertainty‐mitigation mechanisms. We therefore predict that a greater number of status‐heterophilous ties will be formed in an up market than in a down market. We discuss the implications of our results for status theory and more broadly for research on strategic decision making under uncertainty.     

Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation

We extend a continuous-time approximation approach to the analysis of escape dynamics in economic models with constant gain adaptive learning. This approach is based on the application of the results of continuous-time version of large deviations theory to the linear diffusion approximation of the original discrete-time dynamics under learning. We characterize escape dynamics by analytically deriving the most probable escape point and mean escape time. The approximation is tested on the Phelps problem of a government controlling inflation while adaptively learning a misspecified Phillips curve, studied previously by Sargent (1999) and Cho et al. (2002) (henceforth, CWS), among others. We compare our results with simulations extended to very low values of the constant gain and show that, for the lowest gains, our approach approximates simulations relatively well. We express reservations regarding the applicability of any approach based on large deviations theory to characterizing escape dynamics for economically plausible values of constant gain in the model of CWS when escapes are not rare. We show that for these values of the gain it is possible to derive first passage times for learning dynamics reduced to one dimension without resort to large deviations theory. This procedure delivers mean escape time results that fit the simulations closely. We explain inapplicability of large deviations theory by insufficient averaging near the point of self-confirming equilibrium for relatively large gains which makes escapes relatively frequent, suggest the changes which might help approaches based on the theory to work better in this gain interval, and describe a simple heuristic method for determining the range of constant gain values for which large deviations theory could be applicable.     

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.     

Economic growth and multi-tasking by state-owned enterprises: An analytic framework and empirical study based on Chinese provincial data

By preventing large-scale unemployment during China's economic transition, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) helped maintain social stability, which supported the development of non-state sectors through a positive externality. Yet this burden reduced the productive efficiency of SOEs. Using a simple framework with two sectors, our paper decomposes the conflicting contributions of SOEs (lower efficiency but enhanced stability) to regional economic growth during 1992–2007. We find that productive efficiency in the state sector was lower than in other sectors and identify a significant positive externality that supported non-state sectors. Since these two effects offset each other, the contribution of SOEs to economic growth in China during our sample time frame was not significantly different from that of non-state enterprises.     

我国第三方物流企业服务补救模式研究

第三方物流企业是联系生产、流通和消费的一类服务业,是关联企业优化经济资源配置,提高企业运营质量,改善资本环境以及形成企业核心竞争力的重要途径.作为一个新兴产业,它的发展不仅推动了物流的业态成熟,也提高了服务业整体的贡献率,受到业内人士高度关注.在物流行业竞争日益激烈的今天,服务质量已成为物流企业竞争的主要手段.但是由于物流服务的特性,使得服务失误几乎不可避免,严重影响其服务质量的改进.因此,从顾客满意的角度出发,着重考虑如何针对服务失误进行补救,使企业能够运用服务补救措施及时地发现和解决问题,提高服务质量,不断优化和完善物流服务补救体系,改善顾客关系,形成第三方物流企业长期的竞争优势.     

New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics

The economic theory of decision-making under uncertainty is used to produce three econometric models of dynamic discrete choice: (1) for a single spell of unemployment; (2) for an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment; (3) for a general three-state model with a non-market sector. The paper provides a structural economic motivation for the continuous time Markov (or more generally ‘competing risks’) model widely used in longitudinal analysis in biostatistics and sociology, and it extends previous work on dynamic discrete choice to a continuous time setting. An important feature of identification analysis is separation of economic parameters that can only be identified by assuming arbitrary functional forms from economic parameters that can be identified by non-parametric procedures. The paper demonstrates that most econometric models for the analysis of truncated data are non-parametrically under-identified. It also demonstrates that structural estimators frequently violate standard regularity conditions. The standard asymptotic theory is modified to account for this essential feature of many structural models of labor force dynamics. Empirical estimates of an equilibrium two-state model of employment and non-employment are presented.     

Business model innovation in a knowledge revolution: An evolutionary theory perspective

For knowledge‐intensive industries, a need remains to increase clarity on the dynamics through which business model innovation occurs. Progress has been limited owing to complexities in these industries and to the underlying ontology of the business model concept itself. Through a conceptual methodology, our findings expose impediments to current business model theory and propose economic evolutionary theory as a useful alternative lens through which to address these limitations. This research contributes to the literature by broadening the traditional scope of the economic evolutionary view as relevant for business model innovation research and by offering a corresponding framework for future research.     

Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence

Prior research shows that economic policy uncertainty affects a wide range of corporate financial decisions; however, there is little research on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing across countries. In this paper, we argue that economic policy uncertainty affects cost of debt financing through two mechanisms including information asymmetry and default risk. With a sample of 163,243 firm-years across 17 countries from 2003 to 2016, we find that economic policy uncertainty positively affects cost of debt financing and this effect is stronger during the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009. Moreover, our research findings show that large firms’ debt financing cost is less affected by economic policy uncertainty.     

Economic uncertainty and national bitcoin trading activity

This study analyzes the dynamics between bitcoin trading, price activities, and economic surprise shocks from a broad and novel perspective on a national level. We start by estimating the response of bitcoin trading in terms of volume and volatility to economic surprises. Following this, we extend our framework by applying a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model to get an indication of the volatility reaction of national bitcoin activities to economic surprise shocks. Our results show that local and global shocks affect local bitcoin activities and trading volatilities, confirming that economic events affect bitcoin markets. We argue that increased trading activity, coupled with a price reaction, indicates that bitcoin might be considered a hedge or safe haven asset against economic uncertainty. We find evidence that bitcoin is treated as a speculative asset against negative economic policy uncertainty shocks in Canada pre-Covid-19. These results change during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to a significant structural break. Here, we find indications that bitcoin might be treated as a safe-haven asset in New Zealand and Australia. This shows that bitcoin behaves differently depending on the studied country, underlining the importance of country-level studies. It also shows that bitcoin is a new asset that is evolving rapidly and that the period in which it is studied is important.     

Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models

This paper examines the nature of uncertainty in integrated econometric+input–output (ECIO) regional models. We focus on three sources of uncertainty: (a) econometric model parameter uncertainty; (b) econometric disturbance term uncertainty; and (c) input–output coefficient uncertainty. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations we analyse the relative importance of each component as well as the question of how their interaction may propagate through the integrated model to affect the distributions of the endogenous variables. Our results suggest that there is no simple answer to the question of which source of uncertainty is most important in an integrated model. Instead, that answer is conditioned upon the focus of the analysis and whether the industry specific or macro level variables are of central concerns.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence

This paper investigates the predictive performance of the Chinese economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Davis, Liu, and Sheng (2019) in forecasting the returns of China’s stock market. Using the univariate and bivariate predictive regression model, we confirm that the monthly EPU index can significantly and negatively impact the next month’s stock returns, and has better out-of-sample predictability than the existing EPU index and several macroeconomic variables. By comparing the forecasting effect of the EPU index before and during special events with sharply increased uncertainty, we find that the EPU’s forecasting power decline rapidly when an event of sharply increased uncertainty occurs. Finally, our conclusions are consistent through a batch of robustness tests.     

Uncertainty and Economic Sociology:

A BSTRACT . The paper discusses the role of uncertainty in economic sociology, aiming to clarify some controversial issues in the related literature. Initially, some conceptual remarks are made about the relation between economic sociology, neoclassical economics, and rational choice theory. Next, in light of the existing literature on uncertainty and economic sociology, we distinguish between complexity and different types of uncertainty. We also identify different versions of the maximization hypothesis and examine their relations to the different types of uncertainty. Then we defend a concept of fundamental uncertainty that emphasizes the role of institutions. A theory that combines fundamental uncertainty and institutions should emphasize not only the existence of behavior in accordance with institutions, but also the possibility of creative, bold, unconventional behavior, discussed next, as people may use the knowledge provided by institutions to go against the tide. Finally, we suggest that the primary distinction should be that between approaches to economic issues, not between disciplines.     

Consumption paths under prospect utility in an optimal growth model

This paper studies the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of optimal economic growth in the presence of loss aversion and habit formation. The representative agent's preferences for consumption can be gradually varied between the standard constant intertemporal elasticity of substitution (CIES) case and Kahneman and Tversky's prospect utility. We find that the transitional dynamics of optimal consumption paths differ distinctly from the standard model, in particular consumption smoothing is more pronounced. We also show that prospect utility can cause the economy to remain in a steady state with low consumption and low capital.     

Endogenous business cycles caused by nonconvex costs and interactions

This paper shows that endogenous business cycles (inventory cycles) arise from a combination of nonconvex costs and economic interactions among firms. At the micro level, firm behavior is characterized by lumpiness, and the standard production-smoothing theory is empirically rejected. To account for this, a nonconvex cost function is assumed in our model. It might be expected that even if the microeconomic behavior is lumpy, the effect disappears at the aggregate level because of the law of large numbers. However, we show that if there exist interactions among firms, a regular endogenous cycle emerges at the aggregate level given that the degree of the interaction effect exceeds a critical point. That is, the randomly behaving microeconomic agents generate deterministic collective behavior via interactions. This offers an explanation for the Kitchin cycle.     

The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks with an emphasis on the interaction between elevated uncertainty and credit market conditions when the economy is in different regimes (recessions vs. non-recessions). We use a smooth-transition factor-augmented vector autoregression (ST-FAVAR) and a large monthly panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators in our estimation. Our findings are twofold. First, while an unanticipated increase in uncertainty has adverse effects on the real economy and financial markets, the effects are quantitatively larger during recessions. Second, the financial channel is important in the transmission of uncertainty shocks, with a greater role during recessions and in the short run.     

分析现阶段工程建设项目中工程造价管理存在的问题

阐述了现阶段工程建设项目中工程造价管理存在的主要问题,为造价管理理论的研究起到抛砖引玉的作用,为项目管理者提供借鉴,使我国的建设项目能够健康发展,更好的为经济建设服务。     

城市化进程与服务业发展对经济拉动作用的实证分析

文章通过对计量模型的分析,使用1983～2009年城市化、服务业综合发展以及人均GDP等的数据,运用Johansen协整、Granger因果检验,脉冲响应函数等计量方法对三个指标之间的关系进行实证检验。实证结果表明服务业发展和经济增长之间相互促进,经济增长带动城市化水平提高,但城市化水平对经济增长作用不明显,并进一步分析了在长期过程中经济增长对城市化水平、服务业发展的冲击响应。最后针对我国现状,提出相应的政策建议。     

Cooperative choice and its framing effect under threshold uncertainty in a provision point mechanism

This paper explores how threshold uncertainty affects cooperative behaviors in the provision of public goods and the prevention of public bads. The following facts motivate our study. First, environmental (resource) problems are either framed as public bads prevention or public goods provision. Second, the occurrence of these problems is characterized by thresholds that are interchangeably represented as “nonconvexity,” “bifurcation,” “bi-stability,” or “catastrophes.” Third, the threshold location is mostly unknown. We employ a provision point mechanism with threshold uncertainty and analyze the responses of cooperative behaviors to uncertainty and to the framing for each type of social preferences categorized by a value orientation test. We find that aggregate framing effects are negligible, although the response to the frame is the opposite depending on the type of social preferences. “Cooperative” subjects become more cooperative in negative frames than in positive frames, whereas “individualistic” subjects are less cooperative in negative frames than in positive ones. This finding implies that the insignificance of aggregate framing effects arises from behavioral asymmetry. We also find that the percentage of cooperative choices non-monotonically varies with the degree of threshold uncertainty, irrespective of framing and value orientation. Specifically, the degree of cooperation is highest at intermediate levels of threshold uncertainty and decreases as the uncertainty becomes sufficiently large.