美国经济为何减速

［疲态毕露的美国经济］ 去年下半年以来。已强劲增长１０年之久的美国经济出现了明显的颓势，主要表现在以下几个方面： １．经济增长率急剧下降 据美商务部统计， １９９９年第三季度以来，美国经济连续４个季度高速增长，其实际ＧＤＰ增长率（折算为年率）依次为５．７％、８．３％、４．８％、５．６％。而去年第三季度便急转直下．去年第三、四季度和今年一季度依次为２．２％、 １％和 １．３％，是９０年代以来的最低水平。今年一季度 １．３％的实际 ＧＤＰ增长率虽然超过了市场预期的１．１％。但依然低于１９９１年衰退结束后的任…     

美国金融危机的拯救行动及美国经济地位走势

美国次贷危机爆发以来,美国当局采取了一系列超常规的措施拯救金融市场,阻止经济下滑,并对金融变革规划了初步蓝图。这些措施不可能有立竿见影的奇效,美国经济低迷状态仍将持续一段时间,而且仍有反复濒临衰退的可能。但长期效果不应低估。不应夸大危机对美国经济地位的冲击力,美国金融及金融监管存在严重漏洞,但不是不治之症。不应全盘否定美国金融的发展路径和监管制度。美国陷入日本式的长期低谷的可能性也不大。     

美国经济增长原因及未来走势

美国经济从１９９１年４月开始复苏至今,已经保持了８年多的增长势头。最近几年来,美国经济基本上沿着低速而稳定的轨道运行。与以往的增长周期明显不同的是,这次在经济持续增长的同时,不但失业率逐步下降,而且通货膨胀率也不断走低,即在低通货膨胀率下的持续增长,这是美国当今经济的一大特点。过去２５年来,美国经济学家把２－５％的年经济增长率和６％的年失业率作为美国经济的极限,并作为宏观调控的一个临界点。如果年经济增长率超过极限之上,失业率降到极限之下,就会加剧通货膨胀,这是过去２５年中美国经济的一个常规。但是…     

美国经济减速对我国外贸有何影响

美国经济在持续近１０年的强劲扩张后，自去年下半年以来突然急剧减速。这令国际社会始料不及，也令美国决策当局措手不及。由于美国在世界经济中的“霸主”地位，有关美国经济走势及影响的判断及分析已成为全球关注的焦点。那么，美国经济增长放缓对于日益发展的我国外贸将产生怎样的影响？ 我国外贸出口受到影响 但未造成大的冲击 中美两国自 １９７２年建交以来，双边贸易关系在坎坷的道路上一直快速前进，贸易额在过去近３０年中增长了６０多倍。据我国海关统计，２０００年中美双边贸易额为７４４．６７亿美元．比上年同期增长２１．２…     

美国利率与经济走势及其对中国经济的影响

利率走势是影响美国经济的最主要因素之一，影响着全球的金融市场，近年来美国为阻止经济下滑采取连续降息的政策，对我国经济产生了连带效应，具体表现在：缓解了人民币升值的压力，并要求我国股市、利益及外贸政策进行相应的调整。     

经济着陆的软硬之争

面临通胀压力,中国采取了一系列财政紧缩措施。尽管在此体制下,短期内经济不会有严重危机,但若不认真考虑长期利益,也只是治标不治本、饮鸩止渴最新一期《经济学人》社论题为中国经济:硬着陆之忧,对中国经济的研判颇具警示意义,特与读者朋友们在此分享。文章指出,面临通胀压力,中国采取了一系列财政紧缩措施。尽管在此体制下,短期内经济不会有严重危机,但若不认真考虑长期利益,也只是治标不治本、饮鸩止渴罢了。     

美国经济增长减速对我国出口的影响与对策

受美国经济增长减速的冲击后 ,我国的出口状况将不容乐观。在此情况下 ,应采取的对策是 :降低对美国经济的依存度、进一步调整出口产品的结构、增加外商直接投资 ,降低外贸依存度。     

经济增长为何减速

2012年二季度我国GDP季度同比增速“破8”,此后九个季度在7.5%上下波动,近来部分经济指标再度走低,如1~8月固定投资同比增速降至接近实施刺激计划以来最低值,8月工业增加值增速比7月回落2.1个百分点,社会消费品零售增速创2011年3月以来最低。8月出口进口增速降至2.3%,当月贸易顺差增至近500亿美元,显示内需较弱,金属原料等大宗商品价格下跌,引发煤体“大宗商品雪崩钢价跌入无底洞”之类报道。     

Resource abundance and economic growth in the United States

It is a common assumption that regions within the same country converge to approximately the same steady-state income levels. The so-called absolute convergence hypothesis focuses on initial income levels to account for the variability in income growth among regions. Empirical data seem to support the absolute convergence hypothesis for US states, but the data also show that natural resource abundance is a significant negative determinant of growth. We find that natural resource abundance decreases investment, schooling, openness, and R&D expenditure and increases corruption, and we show that these effects can fully explain the negative effect of natural resource abundance on growth.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States

We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the USA using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1–2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the USA. Specifically, we find that the Granger causal relationship between total energy and real US GDP is bi-directional through much of the 1990s, but unidirectional running from real US GDP to energy consumption in the 2000s. As for each fuel, similar patterns of change were observed in the causal relationship between coal consumption and real US GDP. Oil consumption largely shows a bi-directional relationship between consumption and US GDP, especially after 2009. And natural gas consumption shows a brief period in the early-to-mid 2000s where US GDP predicts energy consumption, but primarily shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth are independent.     

Guns,highways and economic growth in the United States

Given its significant policy implications, the nexus between public expenditures and economic growth has been the subject of an extensive and often emotive theoretical and empirical debate. The nexus between two types of public expenditures and economic growth is examined in this paper using both linear and nonlinear causality tests. Both spending on highways and on defence are regarded, albeit with not the same intensity of conviction, as useful counter-cyclical policy instruments and as stimuli to economic growth. Findings reported herein from both linear and non-linear causality tests offer evidence in support for the growth enhancing properties of the former type of public spending but not so in the case of military expenditure.     

Humanistic and economic impacts of hepatitis C infection in the United States

Abstract

Objective:

Prior research examining the effect of hepatitis C virus (HCV) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and healthcare costs is flawed because non-patient controls were not adequately comparable to HCV patients. The current study uses a propensity score matching methodology to address the following research question: is the presence of diagnosed hepatitis C (HCV) associated with poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and greater healthcare resource use?

Methods:

Using data from the 2009 US National Health and Wellness Survey, patients who reported a HCV diagnosis (n?=?695) were compared to propensity-matched controls (n?=?695) on measures of HRQoL and healthcare resource use. All analyses applied sampling weights to project to the US population.

Results:

HCV patients reported significantly lower levels of HRQoL relative to the matched-control group, including the physical component score (39.6 vs. 42.7, p?<?0.0001) and health utilities (0.63 vs. 0.66, p?<?0.0001). The number of emergency room visits (0.59 vs. 0.44, p?<?0.05) and physician visits (7.7 vs. 5.9, p?<?0.05) in the past 6 months were significantly higher for the HCV group relative to matched controls.

Conclusion:

The results of this study suggest that HCV represents a substantial burden on patients by having a significant and clinically-relevant impact on key dimensions of HRQoL as well as on utilization of healthcare resources, the latter of which would result in increased direct medical costs.

Limitations:

Due to limitations of the internet survey approach (e.g., inability to confirm HCV diagnosis), future research is needed to confirm these findings.     

Household wealth, public consumption and economic well-being in the United States

Standard official measures of household economic well-beingin several countries are based on money income. The generalconsensus is that such measures are limited because they ignorecertain crucial determinants of well-being. We examine two suchdeterminants—household wealth and public consumption—inthe context of the US. Our findings suggest that the level anddistribution of economic well-being is substantially alteredwhen money income is adjusted for wealth or public consumption.Over the 1989–2000 period, median well-being appears toincrease faster when these adjustments are made than when standardmoney income is used. Adding imputed rent and annuity from householdwealth to household income increases measured inequality, whileadding public consumption reduces it. However, all three measuresshow about the same rise in inequality over the period.     

Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States

Invading alien species in the United States cause major environmental damages and losses adding up to almost $120 billion per year. There are approximately 50,000 foreign species and the number is increasing. About 42% of the species on the Threatened or Endangered species lists are at risk primarily because of alien-invasive species.     

2001年福建经济走势测及对策

2001年是进入新世纪的第一年,也是“十五”计划的第一个执行年。2001年我省经济增长如何,直接影响着“十五”计划能否开好局,起好步,为此,我们要审时度势,未雨绸缪,准确把握2001年我省经济发展的宏观环境,制定有效措施,促进经济增长,为“十五”计划顺利实施打下良好基础。     

从美国物质科学资助转变看学科均衡发展

本文介绍了美国从70年代至今对物质科学资助的转变历程,探究其资助转变背后对于学科均衡发展的考量,其中,重点讨论美国国家科学基金会(NSF)在保持美国学科均衡发展中的重要作用和美国在不同时期通过资助转变对学科发展失衡的调节.最后,文章还就美国围绕学科均衡发展进行资助调整对我国的启示进行了分析.     

A health economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of OPTIFAST for the treatment of obesity in the United States

Objectives: Obesity is associated with high direct medical costs and indirect costs resulting from productivity loss. The high prevalence of obesity generates a justified need to identify cost-effective weight loss approaches from a payer’s perspective. Within the variety of weight management techniques, OPTIFAST is a clinically recognized and scientifically proven total meal replacement Low Calorie Diet that provides meaningful results in terms of weight loss and reduction in comorbidities. The objective of this study is assess potential cost-savings of the OPTIFAST program in the US, as compared to “no intervention” and pharmacotherapy.

Methods: An event-driven decision analytic model was used to estimate payer’s cost-savings from reimbursement of the 1-year OPTIFAST program over 3 years in the US. The analysis was performed for the broad population of obese persons (BMI >30?kg/m²) undergoing the OPTIFAST program vs liraglutide 3?mg, naltrexone/bupropion and vs “no intervention”. The model included the risk of complications related to increased BMI. Data sources included published literature, clinical trials, official US price/tariff lists, and national population statistics. The primary perspective was that of a US payer; costs were provided in 2016?US dollars.

Results: OPTIFAST leads over a period of 3 years to cost-savings of USD 9,285 per class I and II obese patient (BMI 30–39.9?kg/m²) as compared to liraglutide and USD 685 as compared to naltrexone/bupropion. In the same time perspective, the OPTIFAST program leads to a reduction of cost of obesity complications of USD 1,951 as compared to “no intervention”, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD 6,475 per QALY. Scenario analyses also show substantial cost-savings in patients with class III obesity (BMI?≥?40.0?kg/m²) and patients with obesity (BMI?=?30–39.9?kg/m²) and type 2 diabetes vs all three previous comparators and bariatric surgery.

Conclusions: Reimbursing OPTIFAST leads to meaningful cost-savings for US payers as compared with “no intervention” and liraglutide and naltrexone/bupropion in obese patients. Similar results can be expected in matching healthcare settings of other countries. Moreover, OPTIFAST has additional clinical and economic advantages through very low complication and adverse events rates.