Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies

In recent years, the proportion of students facing a binding constraint on government student loans has grown. This has led to substantially increased use of private loans as a supplementary source of finance for households׳ higher education investment. A critical aspect of the private market for student loans is that loan terms must reflect students׳ risk of default. College investment will therefore differ from a world in which government student loans, whose terms are not sensitive to credit risk, are expanded to no longer bind. Moreover, beyond simply crowding out private lending, expansions of the government student loan program will feed back into default risk on private loans. The goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the likely effects of the private market for student loans on college enrollment. We build a model of college investment that reflects uninsured idiosyncratic risk and a well-defined life-cycle that is consistent with observed borrowing and default behavior across family income and college preparedness. We find that higher government borrowing limits increase college investment but lead to more default in the private market for student loans, while tuition subsides increase college investment and reduce default rates in the private market. Consequently, higher limits on government student loans have small negative welfare effects, while tuition subsidies increase aggregate welfare.     

The role of income tax in student loan repayments

West keeps score of the continuing and growing inadequacies of the British student loan scheme to 1998 and shows how an income-contingent loan could better satisfy its aims. He explores a common objection to any form of student loan scheme, that students pay for their university education through progressive income taxes. West shows how this argument falls short, and hence that some form of income contingent loan is required if equity and efficiency are to be satisfied.     

国家助学贷款:高校风险解构及其后果阐释

国家助学贷款是一种与教育机会均等的思想和高等教育财政的改革相匹配的教育成本分担方式,属于政策性金融业务。我国助学贷款政策要求高校承担相当部分的风险补偿资金,这使得高校在多重任务代理下必然做出逆向选择。本文对我国现行的国家助学贷款风险分担机制设计上的缺陷给高校带来了政策、声誉、管理与关系上的四大风险进行了分析,并对这些风险可能导致国家助学贷款政策失灵以及高校发展机会丧失的严重后果进行了阐释,认为国家应承担主要的贷款风险,本质上作为金融产品的助学贷款存在创新的巨大空间。     

Valuation of stock loans with jump risk

A stock loan is a special loan with stocks as collateral, which offers the borrowers the right to redeem the stocks on or before the maturity (Xia and Zhou, 2007, Dai and Xu, 2011). We investigate pricing problems of both infinite- and finite-maturity stock loans under a hyper-exponential jump diffusion model. In the infinite-maturity case, we derive closed-form formulas for stock loan prices and deltas by solving the related optimal stopping problem explicitly. Moreover, we obtain a sufficient and necessary condition under which the optimal stopping time is finite with probability one. In the finite-maturity case, we provide analytical approximations to both stock loan prices and deltas by solving an ordinary integro-differential equation as well as a complicated non-linear system. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the approximation methods for both prices and deltas are accurate, fast, and easy to implement.     

美国联邦大学生贷款资助体系研究

美国联邦大学生贷款资助体系经过半个多世纪的发展,已经成为一个相对完善的体系,包含有多种贷款项目和还款方式,并且具备了多样性、灵活性和政府担保性等主要特征。其成功的经验为中国的国家助学贷款改革提供了新的思路。     

Cyclicality in losses on bank loans

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the cyclic behavior of the loss given default and constitutes the links with the default rate and macro variables. These links vary according to loan and borrower characteristics. During downturns, the proportion of defaults with severe losses increases, but the distribution of losses conditional on their being mild or severe does not change. although loans are monitored more closely than bonds and are more senior, the cyclical variation in their losses resembles those for bonds, albeit around a lower average level. This variation leads to an increase in the capital reserves required for loan portfolios.     

Targeted monetary policy and agriculture business loans

This study examines the effect of a Targeted Easing (TE) policy, an unconventional monetary policy tool initiated by the Chinese central bank to reduce reserve requirement ratios of agricultural financial institutions. Utilizing a longitudinal sample of Chinese agriculture companies and a matching sample of industrial firms between 2012 and 2017, we find that the TE policy successfully achieves its intended policy goal to boost lending to the agriculture sector. Results from our difference-in-differences estimations indicate that loan levels of agriculture firms increases significantly more than that of matching nonagricultural firms under TE relative to the non-TE period. We also document heterogeneous TE effects and find that agricultural firms with smaller agency costs, larger financing constraints, and larger loan intensity levels benefit significantly more from a TE policy than their counterparts. In addition, the TE policy effect is more salient during a contractionary period than in an expansionary period.     

商业银行信用风险控制在助学贷款中的运用

实行助学贷款是发展教育的一项重要政策,但在实施的过程中却出现了"银行有钱贷不出"和"学生没钱贷不到"的尴尬局面,这引起了人们对这项政策的再思考。通过对产生这种现象的内在原因的分析和对银行和学生二者之间预期效用的比较分析,以及对银行和学生行为选择的分析,认为缺乏有效的抵押担保机制和良好的社会信用体系是导致这种现象的重要原因,最后从制度约束和道德约束两方面思考,减少信息不对称现象,增加学生不还贷成本,降低银行风险,不断完善助学贷款制度。     

商业银行国家助学贷款之风险分析

文章着重论述了国家助学贷款的信贷风险问题,指出国家助学贷款是一种财政贴息无担保的信用贷款,是一项公共政策;提出防范助学贷款的信贷风险,需要构建以国家征信体系为基础的社会诚信环境,完善全国性的个人征信信息系统,大力推广生源地贷款,创建助学贷款的风险管理系统。     

浅析国家助学贷款毕业生违约原因与对策

文中透过分析学生贷款违约原因,找出减少贷款毕业生违约的途径和对策,让国家助学贷款工作朝着健康、有序、可持续性方向发展。     

浅析高校在国家助学贷款政策实施中的角色重新定位

国家助学贷款是银行发放的用于全日制高等学校在校生支付学费和生活费的贷款。在国家助学贷款的具体实施过程中,高校作为学生和银行的桥梁,每年要向经办银行交纳一定数额的风险补偿金来为学生贷款作担保。然而近年来持续走低的还款率给各高校带来负担,使我们不得不深思高校在助学贷款中角色的转变,给高校的多重角色重新定位。本文在对某高校助学贷款的具体实施进行调查的基础上,提出了高校在助学贷款实施中的多重角色的转变,其中包括淡化担保者角色,丰富教育者及协助者角色的内涵,并提出在各种角色中高校的具体职责。     

STUDENT DEBT EFFECTS ON FINANCIAL WELL‐BEING: RESEARCH AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Reviewing the data regarding effects of student debt on students’ financial outcomes following college – whether successful graduation or premature exit – makes clear that there is a price to pay for having to borrow money to go to college. Indebted college graduates have lower net worth, less home equity, and compromised ability to accumulate assets, as compared to their peers with the same level of education but no student debt. They may also experience poorer educational outcomes, with independent effects on earning power and, then, later wealth accumulation. Especially given the relationship between initial household wealth and children's later educational outcomes, these findings about the post‐college financial outcomes of indebted students and graduates raise the specter of ongoing, sustained, and cross‐generational perpetuation of societal divides. In the United States, higher education is valued not just as a good in itself, but also as a means to the end of greater economic security and the primary lever for economic mobility. Evaluating student loans through this lens underscores the long‐term, volatile, and often hidden effects of student loan dependence and raises the stakes for consideration of alternative approaches to higher education finance.     

The interest rate spreads in the Czech Republic: Different loans,different determinants?

We analyze the determinants of interest rate spreads of different loan categories in the Czech Republic during 2004–2011. We employ a detailed bank supervisory dataset that allows us to construct the actual spreads for four loan categories, namely small and large corporate loans, consumer loans and mortgages, on a monthly basis. Our regression analysis shows that bank and macroeconomic characteristics matter more for setting the spreads for small corporate loans and mortgages rather than for large corporate loans and consumer loans. Interest rate risk determines the spreads for all loan categories. The global financial crisis has, to a certain extent, increased the responsiveness of spreads to interest rate risk and liquidity risk.     

大学生程序权利保障中的缺失及制度对策

本文从大学生程序权利保障的缺失出发,本着优化纠纷解决途径的目的,进而对保障的制度构建进行探讨,以期对保障大学生的合法权益,实现教育法治化、推动我国教育事业发展有所助益。     

Investing in private higher education in developing countries: recent experiences of the International Finance Corporation

Higher education, which provides mainly 'private goods,' is being opened to private investment in many parts of the world. The paper describes the pioneering efforts of the International Finance Corporation in this field. The IFC has approved investments in nine universities, two specialised training centres and two student loan programmes. It is too early to draw firm conclusions about the case for this form of investment, but the paper deals with some of the issues which have arisen and provides some 'guideposts' for evaluating future investments.     

Investing in private higher education in developing countries: recent experiences of the International Finance Corporation

Higher education, which provides mainly‘private goods,’is being opened to private investment in many parts of the world. The paper describes the pioneering efforts of the International Finance Corporation in this field. The IFC has approved investments in nine universities, two specialised training centres and two student loan programmes. It is too early to draw firm conclusions about the case for this form of investment, but the paper deals with some of the issues which have arisen and provides some‘guideposts’for evaluating future investments.     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

商业银行国家助学贷款之风险分析

文章着重论述了国家助学贷款的信贷风险问题,指出国家助学贷款是一种财政贴息无担保的信用贷款,是一项公共政策;提出防范助学贷款的信贷风险,需要构建以国家征信体系为基础的社会诚信环境,完善全国性的个人征信信息系统,大力推广生源地贷款,创建助学贷款的风险管理系统。     

浅析个人住房公积金贷款现状及其风险管理

随着房地产市场的升温,房地产商品需求的逐渐增大,房贷规模随之增大,个人住房公积金贷款作为国家政策性住房金融的主体倍受青昧。受市场环境影响,公积金贷款的风险也在增强,文章从公积金贷款的现状出发,分析公积金贷款的风险．并提出有效的控制措施。     

Political Influence and the Banking Sector: Evidence from Korea*

This paper uses panel data to compare the performance of Korean banks with and without effective government control of the appointment of chief operating officers. A privatization programme succeeded in spreading ownership of banks widely among the public, but government retention of an ownership stake in an institution meant de facto control by government. Despite charging lower loan rates, banks controlled by government experience higher bad loans ratios. This is in line with expectations of regulatory forbearance and government protection for recipients of political loans. Banks controlled by government are less efficient than privately controlled banks and bad loan variables are higher at banks with lower efficiency scores.