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1.
In this study we empirically examine the intraday lead/lag relation between S&P 500 futures prices and the S&P 500 index, and whether daily market characteristics are associated with changes in the relation. We estimate daily Geweke measures of feedback and regress time series of these measures on daily price volatility and volume characteristics. Results indicate that the contemporaneous price relation is substantive and that measures of contemporaneous feedback are positively associated with the daily range of the futures price. The primary implication is that the relation between cash and futures prices becomes stronger as futures price volatility increases. As volatility increases, information is being impounded at a faster rate so that futures and equity markets operate more closely as one market. Large futures price moves, by themselves, are not responsible for breakdowns in the stock-futures price relation.  相似文献   

2.
Explanations for the day-of-the-week effect are either market-specific conventions (timing delays in settlement and clearing, dividend payout arrangements) or cross-market events (bad news delayed until the weekend). Although a market-specific rational is confined to one market, cross-market events affect at least two markets. In this research we investigate the weekend effect in the stock and Treasury markets. Our findings suggest the weekend effect is nonparallel across financial markets. Thus, the weekend effect is more likely due to unique features of the individual markets than to events affecting both stock and Treasury markets simultaneously.  相似文献   

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Numerous studies document a day-of-the-week effect in stock returns. Although a common explanation for this phenomenon concerns a potential daily pattern in the release of corporate information, existing studies provide conflicting evidence. To aid in resolving this issue, possible seasonalities in a sample of 138,824 dividend announcements are investigated over twenty-six years across 3,484 firms. Tests provide no support for the information hypothesis and suggest that the anomalous pattern of returns is driven by some factor unrelated to information arrivals.  相似文献   

5.
We show that Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 futures are pulled toward the at-the-money strike price on days when serial options on the S&P 500 futures expire (pinning) and are pushed away from the cost-of-carry adjusted at-the-money strike price right before the expiration of options on the S&P 500 index (anti-cross-pinning). These effects are driven by the interplay of market makers' rebalancing of delta hedges due to the time decay of those hedges as well as in response to reselling (and early exercise) of in-the-money options by individual investors. The associated shift in notional futures value is at least $115 million per expiration day.  相似文献   

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Stock price increases associated with addition to the S&P 500 Index have been interpreted as evidence that demand curves for stocks slope downward. A key premise underlying this interpretation is that Index inclusion provides no new information about companies' future prospects. We examine this premise by analyzing analysts' earnings per share (eps) forecasts around Index inclusion and by comparing postinclusion realized earnings to preinclusion forecasts. Relative to benchmark companies, companies newly added to the Index experience significant increases in eps forecasts and significant improvements in realized earnings. These results indicate that S&P Index inclusion is not an information‐free event.  相似文献   

8.
I examine the informational contributions and effects on transitory volatility of trades initiated by different types of traders in three actively traded index futures markets. The results show that trades initiated by exchange member firms account for more than 60% of price discovery during the trading day. These institutional trades appear to be more informative than trades of individual exchange members or off‐exchange traders. I also find that off‐exchange traders introduce more noise into the prices than do exchange members. My findings provide new evidence on the role of different types of traders in the price formation process.  相似文献   

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We derive sharp bounds for the prices of VIX futures using the full information of S&P 500 smiles. To that end, we formulate the model-free sub/superreplication of the VIX by trading in the S&P 500 and its vanilla options as well as the forward-starting log-contracts. A dual problem of minimizing/maximizing certain risk-neutral expectations is introduced and shown to yield the same value.The classical bounds for VIX futures given the smiles only use a calendar spread of log-contracts on the S&P 500. We analyze for which smiles the classical bounds are sharp and how they can be improved when they are not. In particular, we introduce a family of functionally generated portfolios which often improves the classical bounds while still being tractable; more precisely, they are determined by a single concave/convex function on the line. Numerical experiments on market data and SABR smiles show that the classical lower bound can be improved dramatically, whereas the upper bound is often close to optimal.  相似文献   

11.
Expected S&P 500 futures price distributions are derived using no-arbitrage option pricing models. These distributions are parameterized both as the lognormal and as a less restrictive three-parameter Burr-XII distribution. The resulting option-based probability assessments display some evidence of miscalibration very near to expiration and far from expiration, but are accurate over intermediate time ranges. The means of the implied price distributions correspond closely to the contemporaneous futures prices for both distributions, although marginally better with the Burr-XII. The Burr-XII distribution also performs better than the lognormal based on calibration statistics, and hence, is used to recalibrate estimated distributions.  相似文献   

12.
We analyze the changes in cash holding policies of S&P 500 firms from before to after their inclusion in the index. One year after inclusion, their mean industry-adjusted cash holdings decline by nearly 32% from the year before inclusion. Several factors explain this decline. The precautionary motive for cash subsides due to these firms becoming more visible, less uncertain, and less constrained to raise cheap external capital. Corporate governance deteriorates after inclusion due to increased managerial entrenchment, which leads to a reduction in cash as suggested by the free cash flow hypothesis. Most index firms face diminishing investment opportunities and decreasing capital expenditures, which implies a lesser need for cash holdings related to the transaction motive.  相似文献   

13.
This paper presents empirical results regarding the suitability of the Black model for the pricing of options on stock index futures. Whaley's technique is used to present empirical evidence regarding the pricing biases of the model. Information provided by the implied volatilities suggests that model refinements should address the changing volatility issue.  相似文献   

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A Nonlinear Factor Analysis of S&P 500 Index Option Returns   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Growing evidence suggests that extraordinary average returns may be obtained by trading equity index options, and that at least part of this abnormal performance is attributable to volatility and jump risk premia. This paper asks whether such priced risk factors are alone sufficient to explain these average returns. To provide an answer in as general as possible a setting, I estimate a flexible class of nonlinear models using all S&P 500 Index futures options traded between 1986 and 2000. The results show that priced factors contribute to these expected returns but are insufficient to explain their magnitudes, particularly for short‐term out‐of‐the‐money puts.  相似文献   

16.
Understanding both the dynamics of volatility and the shape of the distribution of returns conditional on the volatility state is important for many financial applications. A simple single-factor stochastic volatility model appears to be sufficient to capture most of the dynamics. It is the shape of the conditional distribution that is the problem. This paper examines the idea of modeling this distribution as a discrete mixture of normals. The flexibility of this class of distributions provides a transparent look into the tails of the returns distribution. Model diagnostics suggest that the model, SV-mix, does a good job of capturing the salient features of the data. In a direct comparison against several affine-jump models, SV-mix is strongly preferred by Akaike and Schwarz information criteria.  相似文献   

17.
We use a multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity model (M‐GARCH) to examine three stock indexes and their associated futures prices: the New York Stock Exchange Composite, S&P 500, and Toronto 35. The North American context is significant because markets in Canada and the United States share similar structures and regulatory environments. Our model allows examination of dependence in volatility as it captures time variation in volatility and cross‐market influences. Estimated time variation in volatility is significant, and the volatilities are highly positively correlated. Yet, we find that the correlation in North American index and futures markets has declined over time.  相似文献   

18.
This paper examines the impact on stock returns of changes in the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index. S&P states that firms are not added to or deleted from the index for valuation reasons but rather to maintain or improve the index's representative character. Results from market response tests indicate that stocks added to (deleted from) the index since 1975 experience a significant positive (negative) announcement day excess return. No announcement effect occurs in S&P changes prior to 1976. These announcement effects may be explained by a price-pressure hypothesis or by an information effect. Results of tests conducted to isolate which of these phenomena is present are reported.  相似文献   

19.
Founding-Family Ownership and Firm Performance: Evidence from the S&P 500   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
We investigate the relation between founding‐family ownership and firm performance. We find that family ownership is both prevalent and substantial; families are present in one‐third of the S&P 500 and account for 18 percent of outstanding equity. Contrary to our conjecture, we find family firms perform better than nonfamily firms. Additional analysis reveals that the relation between family holdings and firm performance is nonlinear and that when family members serve as CEO, performance is better than with outside CEOs. Overall, our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that minority shareholders are adversely affected by family ownership, suggesting that family ownership is an effective organizational structure.  相似文献   

20.
Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.  相似文献   

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