ISSUES OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Growth in agricultural productivity and the stimulus of price supports have led to overproduction in Western Europe: in particular, the European Community has become a smaller importer and even a major exporter of several products. But as prices in the EC are usually above world levels, this requires expensive subsidisation and leads to trade conflicts. Adjustments now forced on the CAP mean a greater cost-price squeeze, besides imposing quotas on the dairy sector. Policy aims relating to farm incomes and to market balance have thus become very difficult to reconcile. Future policy will also have to take more account of the impact of farming on the environment and of the role of agricultural activity in rural communities. Are there policy instruments, such as direct aids, which can help to achieve such diverse goals? What are the implications of changing circumstances for farming systems, and in particular can low-input systems offer an alternative to the ‘productivist’ farming model?     

AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN CHINA—A VISITOR'S IMPRESSION

Following a study tour of China a brief account is presented of recent changes in agricultural policy with some short comments on living conditions. The account concentrates on the prominence now given to agriculture within the planning process and the recent raising of its status relative to other sectors. This is associated with the change to the household responsibility system allied to upward adjustment in agricultural producer prices and some adjustment in input costs.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN JAPAN

Japan is situated at the opposite end of the European continent from Western Europe. Climate, culture and history all differ greatly between the two, as does agriculture. Half of the farmland is devoted to paddy rice, livestock raising is still a new industry and the average farm size is only one hectare. Nevertheless, one would find many similarities in policy. The oversupply of major agricultural products is one of the most serious problems in Japan, whilst slow structural reform is the other, and a declining rural community is undermining the agricultural base. This paper confines itself to an outline of Japanese agricultural policy, without making explicit comparisons with Western Europe.     

PROBLEMS OF CHANGE IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

There has been a low level of methodological controversy within the Australian agricultural economics profession. Johnson's 1963 paper is the most significant and in it he passed criticisms on agricultural production economists not unlike those currently being made by political economists of economics in general. These past criticisms have in the main been ignored by the Australian profession but it is suggested that they are now being pushed with renewed vigour and they can no longer be ignored. It is argued that our policy work has by and large been successful and effective except for significant areas where our methodology was of restricted usefulness. In farm management the Johnsonian strictures would seem to apply but a more charitable interpretation is provided which should meet the approval of the political economists. Our almost complete neglect of development economics must soon draw to an end and we will find that the methodologies which we have relied on heavily and fairly successfully must be augmented as we become more involved in this field. The political economics challenge should be recognized and accepted with relish because the nature of our work is changing and will continue to change in the future. We have adapted fairly well as adjustment and equity have become major policy concerns. Meeting the political economics challenge will help this process of adaptation.     

UK GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE—IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT UNDER THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

The change in government expenditure which accompanies change in agricultural land use and output is an important parameter in current policy decisions. This change is estimated in this paper using a simple accounting model which recognises the diversity of support schemes in operation and the interaction between them. Use of the model is illustrated by estimating the effects of changes in beef, sheepmeat and cereals output under alternative assumptions about market conditions, yield levels and land classes affected. The paper concludes by discussing other ways in which the model might be used.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN WEST GERMANY

Much of the area which at present constitutes the German Federal Republic was, in the past, agriculturally backward. Since 1949, West German agriculture has made considerable technical progress, but still suffers from severe structural problems. These problems of small farm size and fragmentation have their origin in the 18th century, when farmers obtained control of the land without the enclosure movement experienced in Britain, and no serious programme of structural reform was undertaken before 1939. In recent years, West German agriculture has increased production very greatly and at the same time reduced its labour force at an unprecedented rate. Moreover, a substantial programme of structural reform was initiated in the 1950's. As a result, farmers' incomes have risen at roughly the same rate as other incomes. In the last few years, West German agriculture has come under increasing pressure as a result of economic developments and the competition of other Common Market countries. It is clear that a more radical programme of structural reform is needed.     

A MODEL OF THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Several efforts have been made since 1980 to estimate the costs and benefits of the European Community's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This paper summarises the approach and method adopted in developing one such effort, which aims to provide results at country, commodity and interest group level both for the CAP as a whole, and for changes in it. Economic analysis of the effects of price changes in the CAP is carried out with the use of direct and crossprice elasticities of supply and demand for sixteen major commodities, using base levels of production, consumption, and gross trade flows in each member state, along with rest-of-world data. A number of CAP instruments, such as subsidies, levies, quotas and ‘green’ exchange rates, are built into the calculations and can be varied, along with support prices, to produce new situations in domestic markets and in world price levels. Both financial (budgetary) and welfare (economic surplus) effects of such exogenous price changes can be calculated. Certain policy changes, such as a move to ‘free’ markets, involve endogenous calculation of equilibrium prices. Trend projections subject to a priori constraints are used to produce results for years beyond the extent of data currently available. The types of model run commonly carried out are discussed, along with several strategic judgments that became necessary in carrying out the research. Finally, questions concerning the future development and use of the model are addressed.     

基于农户调查的农地使用权流转现状、问题与政策建议

农民是农地使用权流转的主体,研究农户行为直接反映具体情况,为决策者提供更为客观的政策依据。该文从浙江、河北两省356农户调查结果出发,分析当前农地使用权流转的基本情况与呈现的特点,总结了农地使用权流转过程中需要关注的几个问题,提出进一步推进农地使用权流转要防止"非粮化"等4项政策建议。     

QUANTITATIVE POLICY MODELLING IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The paper reconsiders the topic of McClements' 1973 article on model-building but does so in the particular context of policy modelling. Some principles are discussed, along with the relationship of the real world to its representation in a model built for a specific purpose. The assumptions and implications of the econometric and time-series approaches to policy modelling are contrasted, and lessons drawn for model specification and selection. The management, use and dissemination of policy models are also discussed. It is hoped that the experience of the last ten or fifteen years will lead to model-building in agricultural economics being better organised and more rewarding in future.     

GLOBAL MEDITERRANEAN POLICY IMPLICATIONS IN VIEW OF THE NEW EEC ENLARGEMENT

The long expected new enlargement of the Community to include Spain and Portugal will undoubtedly affect existing trade arrangements of the EEC with the south and south-eastern countries of the Mediterranean basin. After examining the economic, political and strategic importance of the Mediterranean area to the Community, the paper suggests two approaches to reforming and strengthening the external Mediterranean policy of EEC-12: first, a short-term piecemeal approach to protect the sensitive areas of Mediterranean export trade, and second, a longer-term policy concept that will gradually lead to a new division of labour between the EEC and its Mediterranean trade partners.     

中国农业面源污染排放格局的时空特征

[目的]农业面源污染排放量在不同作物间的分配格局变化的信息对于国家制定农业面源污染防控政策具有重要的意义,不同作物生产的污染排放格局及其形成原因亟待深入分析。[方法]文章在测算各类作物生产中农业面源污染排放量的基础上,定性与定量相结合研究我国农业面源污染及其内在构成的时空差异。[结果](1) 1998—2014年,我国农业面源污染排放总体呈下降趋势,农业面源污染排放格局已从谷物作物转向蔬菜作物。(2)我国农业面源污染排放空间差异明显,面源污染排放高的省份集中于黄淮海平原,低值省份则主要分布于我国的西部地区,农业面源污染增长主要集中在西北地区。(3)东北地区谷物作物面源污染排放比重高,东南沿海地区蔬菜作物面源污染排放比重高。(4)污染排放强度对谷物作物面源污染排放的影响较大,而蔬菜作物面源污染排放的增加则主要归因于种植面积的扩大。[结论]应因地制宜地制定农业发展政策,科学调整农业种植结构,改造传统农业向技术密集型现代农业转变。     

农产品电子商务发展中所面临的问题及对策

21世纪以来电子商务作为一种新的商务模式,不仅给工业产品销售提供了一个前所未有的爆发式增长机会,农产品电子商务也应运而生。农产品电子商务是将农业生产者与消费者两者有机结合在一起的高效手段与平台。通过信息的交互以及一系列的交易保障手段,构建一个商务平台,实现了农产品价值链的各方共赢。然而由于种种原因,我国在农产品电子商务领域的发展相较于普通消费品而言,还比较缓慢,随着信息爆发式增长与大数据、云计算在电子商务领域的应用,在农产品交易领域如何快速响应消费市场的需求,及时、合理的调整农业生产,如何促进农产品在电子商务环境下的流转速度,是目前发展农产品电子商务乃至推动农业产业化与现代农业发展必须要解决的问题。此外,对于农产品物流服务质量的提高、食品安全的监控与追溯、交易的安全与诚信机制的建立都是在新时期我国发展农产品电子商务中应当协同发展的内容。     

THE USE OF A DECISION MAKER'S UTILITY FUNCTION IN A LINEAR PROGRAMMING ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY*

A decision theoretic approach to agricultural policy decision making is examined to discover whether a utility function of an Australian Wool Corporation decision maker can be established and, if so, whether this can be used to improve the policy analysing performance of an agricultural sector linear programming model. After discussing the theoretical requirements of the utility function elicitation and the elicitation procedures, the characteristics of the resulting functions are examined. A means for its inclusion in a linear programming framework is described and some analysis of policy is carried out. The general conclusions are that the relevance of the agricultural sector analysis is enhanced by the use of such a utility function.