What is the Message of ‘Understanding the Process of Economic Change’ for Economic Historians?

This paper addresses Douglas North's latest book in the light of his intellectual lifework. North's original insistence upon the role of transaction costs did not require a departure from the neoclassical framework as clear-cut as the one required by North's latest emphasis on the role of intentionality. North's recent interest in the cognitive premises of institutional constraints to rational choice considerably expands the scope of the economic analysis of change. However, North still considers institutions supporting homo oeconomicus to be the most important progressive element in history. The paper argues that North's message goes beyond what he would be willing to transfer into the practice of economic historians. In particular, North's new conceptual framework should open the way to the acknowledgment that a plurality of progress-oriented institutions are possible, and that individualism itself could be seen as a multi-dimensional concept.     

Resource Use under Climate Stabilization: Can Nuclear Power Provide Clean Energy?

The long‐term goal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the stabilization of carbon concentration in the atmosphere. In this paper, we impose a carbon target concentration on a partial equilibrium model of the global energy sector. Specifically, we ask whether nuclear power can provide carbon‐free energy as fossil fuel resources become costly due to scarcity and externality costs. We find that nuclear power can reduce the cost of generating clean energy significantly and relatively quickly. However, beyond a few decades the role of nuclear power may be considerably reduced as uranium becomes scarce and renewables become economical. The cost of carbon when nuclear power supplies a significant share of energy is much lower than that of other studies. A policy implication is that current political and regulatory impediments to the expansion of nuclear generation may prove to be costly if large volumes of clean energy need to be supplied over a relatively short period of time.     

‘Icarian Geography’: Air Power,Closed Space,and British Decolonisation

Through the first half of the twentieth century, strategists and statesmen in Britain struggled reconcile the advent of intercontinental air power with the geopolitical logic of the British Empire. This article explores how, and to what extent, their efforts might have catalysed the onset of British decolonisation.     

Normative Power Europe and the Moral Economy of Africa–EU Ties: A Conceptual Reorientation of ‘Normative Power’

‘Normative power’ is an increasingly popularised concept in the study of EU external relations in fields including military policy, human rights, and international trade. Defined by Manners, it acknowledges the normative foundations of the European project, examines how Europe acts to (re)shape internationally accepted norms, and makes the claim that Europe ought to influence external partners' conception of ‘normal’ behaviour in pursuit of a just global order. This article, however, argues that a moral economy perspective is central to a critical reorientation of the concept of normative power towards appraisal of discrepancies between nominal EU norms and material EU policy outcomes. Examining Europe's ‘normative power’ in its relations with the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries, it demonstrates how a moral economy of ACP–EU ties has been instituted in negotiation with European ethical norms as to solidarity with ‘the poor’. Nevertheless, the moral economy of ACP–EU ties is seen not to be ‘moral’ in terms of outcomes for vulnerable citizens in ACP countries. Rather the embedding of moral norms concerning pro-poor ‘development’ has rationalised asymmetric economic ties. ‘Normative power’ is understood as the EU's utilisation of moral norms in the public legitimisation and self-rationalisation of geopolitical interest and commercial gain in its relations with external ‘partners’.     

Air Pollution and ‘Dirty’ Industries: How and Why Does the Composition of Manufacturing Output Change with Economic Development?

This paper examines the impact on air pollution ofchanges in the composition of manufacturing output indeveloped and developing countries. Pollutionemissions from manufacturing output are estimated ina manner which holds constant the effect of technologyand regulations allowing the impact of compositional changes alone on pollution to beestimated. The paper has three main findings; (1) theinverted-U estimated between per capita income and thepollution intensity of GDP arises due to both thecomposition of manufacturing becoming cleaner and theshare of manufacturing output in GDP falling.Compositional changes alone are not responsible forthe inverted-U between per capita income and percapita emissions; (2) changes to the composition ofmanufacturing output are consistent with the pollutionhaven hypothesis, however there is clear evidence thatrising per capita incomes are associated with afalling income elasticity of demand for `dirty'products. This fact may explain the compositionalchanges that occur with development; (3) in additionto the income elasticity effect, the analysis suggeststhat land prices and to a lesser extent the prices oflabour and capital, determine the proportion of dirtyindustry within a country's manufacturing sector.     

Marginal WTP and Distance Decay: The Role of ‘Protest’ and ‘True Zero’ Responses in the Economic Valuation of Recreational Water Quality

We evaluate the sensitivity of distance decay in individuals’ stated willingness to pay (WTP) for water quality improvements in eutrophied lakes. We extend the standard model of contingent valuation (CV) by allowing individuals to adopt a sequential evaluation process consisting of two decision stages. In the first stage respondents decide whether they are ‘protesters’, have a WTP   \(=\)   ‘true zero’ or a \(\hbox {WTP}>0\) . Conditioned on a strictly positive WTP, we use Lee’s selectivity-corrected model to determine the magnitude of their WTP in the second stage. Using CV survey data from Norway we find significant distance decay in the first stage classification of respondents as ‘protesters’, ‘true zero’ WTP, or positive WTP. In the second stage model for positive WTP responses, we find little or no significant relationships when correcting for selection. Results suggest that previous findings of significant distance decay in contingent valuation of lake and river water in Europe may be driven by the definition of ‘protest’ and ‘true zero’ respondents. We find that WTP for water quality may be more useful as a qualitative indicator of political support for user financed water quality measures, than as a cardinal measure of marginal utility of water quality improvements.     

Economic ‘Clusters’ in East Germany: Evidence on the Location and Characteristics of Spatially Concentrated Industries

This article presents the results of an empirical study on spatially concentrated industries (SCI) with ‘cluster’ qualities in the eastern part of Germany which have emerged so far in the process of transformation. The findings reveal that SCI in East Germany which show ‘cluster’ qualities, i.e. SCI being supported by network activities and by innovative competences, are relatively rare, and they are strongly concentrated in agglomerated spaces. As the regional policy scheme which up to now has followed the ‘watering can principle’ has brought, so far, only poor results in terms of East–West convergence, a renewed policy with a special focus on agglomerated spaces (with more favourable conditions for economic growth) and with a stronger orientation on support for networking and innovative competences will probably be more effective in stimulating economic growth in East Germany.     

The Geo-Social and Global Geographies of Power: Urban Aspirations of ‘Worlding’ African Students in China

This paper conceptualises the geosocial by examining the transnational connections of African student migrants and their educational experiences in Chinese cities. While there is now an established scholarship on Chinese migration to Africa, new research on the concurrent flow of African migration to China is emerging. Recent publications on African migrants in China tend to focus on the experiences of African traders, drawing out issues of illegality, ‘low-end’ globalisation and their impacts on Chinese trading cities. In comparison, this paper shifts the analytical lens to African educational migration in Chinese cities, foregrounding how global householding patterns reflect and leverage on the geopolitical and geo-economic dimensions of China-Africa relations. The paper shows that individual and family goals are negotiated through educational migration that, on the one hand, is concerned with accumulating human and cultural capital through a learning stint in Chinese cities, and on the other hand, is framed by perceptions of China-Africa relations. The paper argues that through educational migration, transnational social reproduction links Africa with China, but the social differentiation and everyday sociality that the African students experience in Chinese cities reinforce racial coding and development asymmetries. In so doing, the paper draws out how the geosocial reflects and constitutes the geopolitical and geo-economic dimensions of transnationalism.     

Institutional Quality and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Can Management Effort and Bribes Compensate for Low-Quality Institutions?

The industrial development in sub-Saharan Africa is perhaps more affected by the quality of institutions than that of other regions. We investigate what alternatives managers may have and what their firms would need to function in case the institutional furniture they encounter is of low quality. We find that, in high quality institutional environments, management spending effort to deal with the authorities and to navigate regulations negates the effect of the institutional environment. Managers do not need to spend such efforts. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that the positive effect of high-quality institutional environments on firm performance is enhanced by making informal payments.     

Defying the ‘Juncker curse’: can reformist governments be re-elected?

European policy makers, notably in the euro area, seem to take for granted that the electorate will punish them for bold reform in product and labour markets. This may explain why progress in the euro area has been comparatively limited. This paper posits and, using a dataset for 21 OECD countries, shows that this fear of electoral backlashes is unfounded, provided that financial markets work well. The mechanisms involved are relatively straightforward: well functioning financial markets “bring forward” future yields of structural reform to the present, thus permitting to overcome possible short-run costs. As a result, the electorate tend to reward, not punish, reformist governments. This has important implications for the design of structural reform packages, with financial market reforms being an essential ingredient beside product and labour market reforms.

The ‘Rise of the South’: Global Convergence at Last?

This article offers a political economy review of the literatures and the empirical evidence concerning the ‘Rise of the South’. The study focuses on global convergence (in the long-term, in the last 30 years, and in the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis), economic decoupling between developing and advanced economies, and the economic strategies which may help catching-up, especially the ‘flying geese’ paradigm and industrial policies supporting manufacturing sector growth. It shows that the mainstream literature suffers from significant weaknesses; that empirical claims concerning convergence and decoupling have been exaggerated, and that flying geese-type strategies are severely limited. Examination of the drivers of growth in the South and the policies implemented in key converging countries support the claim that political economy approaches can offer valuable policy insights to countries grappling with the challenges of long-term growth and development.     

‘Old’ Europe’s wage dynamics and trade imbalances: Is there a link?

No evidence is found that gains in relative labour productivity have had a positive effect on the trade balance/GDP ratio for the ‘old’ EU members (excluding Germany) from 1961 to 2014. Rising relative wage rate is shown to have had strong—and negative—effects on the trade balance/GDP ratio for the EU-14, at least in the longer run. It follows that external rebalancing may be achieved through a sufficiently strong fall in the relative wage rates, without productivity changes having a role to play. This is not to claim that the EU-14 (and its members suffering trade deficits in particular) ought to attempt the devastating policy of ‘internal devaluation’. A constructive alternative would be to achieve the fall in the relative wage rates through faster growth of German nominal wage rates. Whether that alternative is practicable is another matter. But it can be argued that without that alternative being followed the European Union will remain a stagnant area plagued by recurrent crises caused by imbalanced trade among its Member States.     

Three Decades After James Street’s “The Institutionalist Theory of Economic Development”: What Does Institutional Approach to Economic Development Mean Today?

James Street’s article, “The Institutionalist Theory of Economic Development,” (1987) is a masterpiece of institutionalist research on economic development. The thirty-year anniversary of its publishing is an invitation to review what the institutional approach to economic development means today. This article, therefore, aims to present a historical survey of works published in the Journal of Economic Issues (JEI) on economic development.     

The IMF as just One Creditor: Who’s in Charge When a Country Can’t Pay?

ABSTRACT

The international community’s management of the 2010 financial crisis in Greece revealed a major gap in the international financial system. No single institution is any longer unambiguously in charge. Consequently, the path is open for narrow interests to predominate over global interests. An examination of postwar history shows that this problem has been growing gradually since the 1970s and has become much greater since the mid-1990s. To alleviate the problem, the International Monetary Fund needs to develop an effective strategy for reducing the opportunities for creditor countries to intervene in decisions on how crises should be resolved.     

Capital inflow-terms of trade ‘nexus’: Does it lead to financial crisis?

The paper models the nexus of foreign capital inflow and dynamic terms of trade to explain financial crisis in the form of sudden stop or reversal of capital inflow. Crisis in this structure is rooted in the role played by dynamic terms of trade rather than informational imperfections as generally found in the existing literature. Inspite of satisfying the regularity conditions for model consistency episodes of sudden crises get magnified due to the non-linearity of the equilibrium relations. This is the novelty of this paper and differentiates it from the standard theoretical literature, and well captures empirical evidence documented in the literature. Non-linearity plays a very important role in the model. Expectation of the exchange rate depreciation has higher potential to generate a financial crisis than shift in the risk perception of foreign lenders or supply shock in the borrowing country.     

An Exploration of the Greek Shadow Economy: Can Its Transfer into the Official Economy Provide Economic Relief Amid the Crisis?

We explore the determinants of the Greek shadow economy, its interaction with the official economy, and its relationship with corruption. In doing so, we undertake — for the first time — an interdisciplinary review of economic and political studies on the size and determinants of the shadow economy, tax evasion, undeclared work and, moreover, of their relation with corruption in Greece in order to reveal the extent and complexity of these phenomena. We estimate the size and determinants of the shadow economy via a multiple-indicators-multiple-causes (MIMIC) approach. Our findings indicate that the important determinants are factors related to macroeconomic conditions, such as unemployment and GDP growth, and institutional factors, such as tax morale and the rule of law. We also indicate that the shadow economy and corruption are complementary and that the official and the shadow economy substitute each other over the business cycle. An adoption of policy based on these findings would lead to a successful transfer of part of the shadow economy to the official economy, would boost government revenue, and would eventually lead the Greek economy out of the depression that emerged as a result of the sovereign debt crisis.     

Protecting Ecosystems and Alleviating Poverty with Parks and Reserves: ‘Win-Win’ or Tradeoffs?

National parks and reserves are globally popular approaches to protecting biodiversity and the supply of ecosystem services. Because these protected areas limit agricultural development and exploitation of natural resources, they are frequently opposed in developing nations where reducing poverty is an important social objective. Conservation advocates argue that protected areas can alleviate poverty by supplying ecosystem services, promoting tourism and improving infrastructure. Thus ‘win-win’ scenarios may be possible in which ecosystems and their services are protected and poverty is alleviated. Previous studies (Andam et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105(42):16089–16094 2008; 2010) suggest that Costa Rica’s protected area system reduced deforestation and alleviated poverty. We demonstrate that these environmental and social impacts were spatially heterogeneous. Importantly, the characteristics associated with the most avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the least poverty alleviation. In other words, the same characteristics that limited the conservation effectiveness of protected areas may have improved the social welfare impacts of these areas. These results suggest that ‘win-win’ efforts to protect ecosystems and alleviate poverty may be possible when policymakers are satisfied with low levels of each outcome, but tradeoffs exist when more of either outcome is desired.