论河北省农业和农村产业结构的调整与优化

我国加入WTO后，农产品市场逐步开放，农业发展将面临更加激烈的竞争，农业中的矛盾与城乡居民收入、消费、就业结构变动结合在一起，已成为制约新阶段农业和农村经济发展的主要问题。本通过对河北省农业和农村产业结构存在问题及产业结构调整面监障碍的分析，提出了新阶段河北省农业和农村产业结构高速的思路与措施。     

Information And Communication Technology And The Measurement Of Volume Output And Final Demand - A Five-Country Study

Information and communication technology (ICT) products have undergone rapid technical change. Where quality improvements occur, they should be reflected in official price and quantity indices, otherwise there is a tendency to over-estimate price movements and under-estimate volume changes of ICT products. Statistical offices deal with this issue but the degree and nature of quality-adjustment of price indices of ICT products varies considerably between OECD countries. The present study simulates measurement effects on key economic variables (real output, private final consumption, government expenditure, investment, exports and imports) and productivity, under the assumption that the price indices of ICT products are fully quality-adjusted. The paper draws on a large selection of empirical studies to identify differences between quality-adjusted and unadjusted price changes and uses detailed information from input-output tables to assess their weights in final demand. Effects on GDP and its components are quantified for five selected OECD countries.     

Computers And Growth

The purpose of this paper is to describe the impact of investment in computers on the growth of the U.S. economy. The economic literature on computers is relatively rich in information on the decline in computer prices and the growth of computer investment. Constant quality price indices for computers have been included in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) since 1986. These indices employ state of the art methodology to capture the rapid evolution of computer technology.

While the annual inflation rate for overall investment has been 3.66 percent for the period 1958 to 1992, computer prices have declined by 19.13 percent per year! Similarly, overall investment grew at 3.82 percent, while investment in computers increased at an astounding 44.34 percent! These familiar facts describe growth in the output of computers. The objective of this paper is to complete the picture by analyzing the growth of computer services as inputs.

In a pioneering paper Bresnahan (1986) has focused on pecuniary externalities arising from the rapid decline in computer prices. Griliches (1992, 1994) has emphasized the distinction between pecuniary and nonpecuniary externalities in the impact of computer investment on growth. This paper is limited to pecuniary externalities or the impact of reductions in computer prices on the substitution of computer services for other inputs. As Griliches (1992) points out, this is an essential first step in identifying nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill-overs’ through the impact of a decline in computer prices on productivity growth. ^{* *}Brynjolfsson (1993) has proveded a detailed survey of studies of nonpecuniary externalities or ‘spill overs’. Recent studies include those of Brynjolfsson and Hitt (1994a, 1994b) and Lichtenberg (1993).

In two important papers Stephen D. Oliner (1993, 1994) has introduced a model of computer technology that greatly facilitates the measurement of computer services as inputs. In this paper we estimate computer stocks and flows of computer services for all forms of computer investment included in NIPA. We construct estimates of computer services parallel to NIPA data on computer investment by combining these data with information on computer inventories. For example, the International Data Corporation (IDC) Census of Computer Processors includes an annual inventory of processors in the U.S.

In Section 1 we present data on investment in computers and constant quality price indices from NIPA. These data incorporate important innovations in modeling computer technology stemming from a joint study by IBM and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) completed in 1985. This study utilized a ‘hedonic’ methodology for constructing an econometric model of computer prices that accurately reflects rapid changes in computer technology. This methodology generates an index of computer prices that holds the quality of computers constant.

In Section 2 we present the model of computer services originated by Oliner (1993,1994). This differs in important respects from the model of capital services used in the previous studies of U.S. economic growth surveyed by Jorgenson (1989,1990). The model employed in previous studies is based on the decline in productive capacity with the chronological age of a capital good. Oliner assumes that computers maintain their productive capacity until they are retired. Decline in productive capacity occurs only through removal of used computers from the inventory through retirement.

In Section 3 we construct estimates of stocks of computers that incorporate IDC data on computer inventories and derive the implied flow of computer services. While output of computer investments has grown very rapidly, the input of computer services has grown even faster. The price of these services has declined at 23.22 percent per year over the period 1958 to 1992, while the input of these services has grown at 52.82 percent! This is prima facie evidence of an important role for computer price declines as a source of pecuniary externalities.

In Section 4 we combine computer services with the services of other types of capital to produce a measure of capital input into the U.S. economy. We link this with labor input to obtain the contributions of both inputs to U.S. economic growth, arriving at the growth of productivity as a residual. We find that the contribution of computer services to input into the U.S. economy is far more important than the contribution of computer investments to output. This is a significant step toward resolution of the Solow paradox: ‘We see computers everywhere except in the productivity statistics. ^{* *}Robert M. Solow, quoted by Brynjolfsson (1993). Declines in computer prices generate very sizable pecuniary externalities through the substitution of computer services for other inputs. By contrast Solow focuses on nonpecuniary externalities that would appear as productivity growth.

In Section 5 we conclude that information on inventories of computers is critical in quantifying the role of computer services as inputs. The constant quality price indices for computers incorporated into NIPA are also essential. A price index for computers that reflects only general trends in inflation would result in a highly distorted perspective on the growth of GDP and capital services, especially during the past decade. To capture the contribution of all forms of investment to U.S. economic growth, similar price indices should be included in NIPA for capital goods with rapidly evolving technologies, as proposed by Gordon (1990).

The long term goal should be a unified system of income. product, and wealth accounts, like that proposed by Laurits Christensen and Jorgenson (1973) and Jorgenson (1980). This incorporates capital stocks, capital services, and their prices. Achieving this goal will necessitate much greater elaboration of the accounting system described in Section 3. These accounts would incorporate data on prices and quantities of investment, stocks of assets, and capital services for all forms of capital employed in the U.S. economy.     

银行会计风险防范的具体建议与对策

防范银行会计风险是一项系统工程 ,涉及到银行工作的方方面面 ,需要按照社会主义市场经济的要求 ,认真贯彻会计的谨慎性原则 ,不断建立、健全各种防范机制 ,构建高效的会计风险监督保障系统 ,进一步加强银行会计信息的披露与揭示 ,提高信息的使用价值 ,才能有效化解目前我国商业银行潜在的和现实的会计风险     

对以色列经贸市场的分析与探讨

从中国公司的认知角度出发,对以色列的经济状况、中以经贸关系和劳务合作等行业进行分析和探索.对未来两国经贸发展的展望,作为我国企业到以色列开展经贸业务的参考.     

对以色列经贸市场的分析与探讨

从中国公司的认知角度出发,时以色列的经济状况、中以经贸关系和劳务合作等行业进行分析和探索,对未来两国经贸发展的展望,作为我国企业到以色列开展经贸业务的参考.     

Marshallian Externalities And The Emergence And Spatial Stability Of Technological Enclaves *

Technological dualism often is found to be associated with the geographical clustering of firms that use the same techniques. To shed further light on these localization phenomena, we analyze the long-run dynamic behavior of a system in which firms' choices among alternative production methods (each of which requires a technique-specific input) are influenced by both firm-specific random shocks and Marshallian ‘industrial neighborhood’ effects. The latter are local factor market externalities that tend to lower the relative marginal costs d those inputs that are used most extensively in the immediate locale. The model developed here focuses on labor market externalities affecting the supply conditions for workers with technology-specific skills, and their effect on the choices made by producers at various sites whose choice of technique is subject to periodic revisions. A special structure familiar in the applied theory of Markov random fields, the stochastic Ising model. provides a reduced-form representation of this dynamic spatial system. The general properties of models of this type and their application in economics are considered. Discrete time numerical simulations of the behavior of an ensemble of firms (located at the nodes of a finite lattice formed on a two-dimensional (orus) shows that positive neighborhood externalities effects do not necessarily result in the uniquitous diffusion of one of the two available technologies. Instead. this system exhibits a spatially localized form of ‘technological dualism," in which at least two technological enclaves emerge and undergo path-dependent evolution. The temporal durations of these spatial patterns in technology adoption are affected by parameters of the Ising model that can be given a straightforward economic interpretation     

Habits And Durability In Consumption And The Effects Of Exchange Rate Policies

The effects of exchange rate policies are worked out in a model in which consumption goods are durable, and money enters the utility function. The interaction of habits and durability results in a non-monotonic adjustment of consumption expenditures, and the current account. As money does not exhibit durability, its dynamics are montonic, and determined mainly by habits effects. Hence, an increase in the rate of depreciation of the domestic currency will very likely lead to a nomonotonic adjustment of consumption and the current account, while the adjustment of real money holdings will be monotonic [F31, F32, F41]     

Extraneous Alternatives And Strategy-Proofness

It is well known that the Gibbard–Satterthwaite theorem cannot be circumvented by adding extraneous alternatives that are included in the individual preference information but are never selected. We generalize this by proving that, for any domain on which every strategy-proof rule is dictatorial, the addition of extraneous alternatives will not permit the construction of a non-dictatorial and strategy-proof rule if the new domain is a product set. We show how this result, and our other theorem, can be applied to seven families of social choice situations, including those in which more than one alternative is selected.     

论社会主义与资本

资本是市场经济的一般范畴，它具有增殖价值的自然属性，但也反映特定的生产关系。在社会主义市场经济的条件下，深刻认识资本的“一般”和“特殊”，重视和充分发挥资本对社会主义的作用，利用资本理论为国有企业改革和发展服务，意义重大而深远。     

森林与环境保护

森林在环境保护中的不可替代的作用与国家对林业政策支持之间尚有一定距离，需要国家采取扶持保护政策。     

Regulatory Institutions And Structures

This article presents a legal perspective on regulatory institutions, procedures and processes. Analysis of legal instruments examines justifications for regulatory interventions, and considers the inadequacies of private law remedies to instances of market failure (such as monopolies, inadequate or asymmetric information, externalities and co–ordination problems). A distinction is drawn between social and economic regulation: the former deals with such matters as health and safety, and environmental and consumer protection; and the latter is needed where there is insufficient competition. Instruments of social regulation include prior approval, mandatory standards and information disclosure. A range of instruments of economic regulation is also assessed, including competition law, public ownership, price and quality regulation, and competitive public franchising. Analysis of regulatory processes focuses on regulatory rule–making, delegated regulation and self–regulation. Particular weight is given to different forms of accountability—financial, procedural and substantive—which draws attention to the significance of the public interest dimension of regulatory systems.     

Banknotes And Economic Growth

Modern paper currency contributes little to productive investment. This shortcoming is not inherent to paper money. It stems from the fact that currency today is monopolistically supplied by public monetary authorities that are poor intermediaries. Commercial banknotes may, in contrast, support efficient intermediation, just as private bank deposits do. We demonstrate this advantage in an endogenous growth model, and use the model to simulate, for a sample of developing countries, steady‐state growth‐rate gains from various degrees of banknote deregulation. The simulated gains are generally large compared with those from conventional forms of financial liberalization.     

山西农产品流通和市场建设分析与模式构建

本文通过对山西农产品供需情况与市场结构的分析 ,指出了山西现有农产品流通体系的特点 ,对其运行过程中存在的问题和发展趋势作了实际评估和判断 ,提出了企业化的市场建设是山西流通市场建设的必然选择 ,公司(流通企业 ) +基地 +农户才能实现大生产与大市场的对接 ,并提出了这种模式建立的具体措施和策略。     

Financial Innovations And Demand For United States M1 And M2 Components

This paper investigates the effects OF THE Depository Institution Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 on the demand function of the United States M1, M2 and their components. The empirical tests are conducted using monthly data from January 1959 to June 1997 and the Johansen cointegration procedure. Results show that the stated monetary act of 1980 considerably affected the income and interest rate demand elasticities of both M1, M2 and their components. Results show a fall in the M1 interest rate elasticity indicating M1 as possibly a more effective monetary policy too after 1980. Results fail to show a stationary M2 demand function during the 1980s and 1990s after the 1980 monetary act. The rate of adjustment of the monetary variables towards the long-run equilibrium is also affected by the 1980 Act. [E41, E44]     

Financial Deregulation And The Relationship Between The Economy And The Share Market In Australia

In this paper we investigate the effect of financial deregulation on the relationship between the macro-economy and the share market within the framework of a VAR using quarterly Australian data for four variables – aggregate share prices, real output, the term premium and the default premium. After an analysis of stationarity and cointegration of the variables, we specify the VAR in the first differences of the logs of share prices and output and the levels of the premia. We identify December 1983 as the most appropriate date for testing for a structural break in our model due to financial deregulation and find strong evidence supporting our hypothesis of a break at this date. We go on to estimate and simulate the model separately over two sub-samples: 1978(1)–1983(4) and 1984(1)–2001(2). While our results are not clear-cut, we find that, if anything, the deregulation of financial markets weakened the relationship between the share market and the rest of the economy.     

海洋经济攻与守

策划前言＂蓝色经济＂在被人提及、引述时,常被默认为含有＂高新＂之意。其实,真正具有＂高新＂属性的蓝色产业,如今在中国海洋经济总产值中占比极少。目前中国海洋经济产值中,四大劳动密集型产业——海洋渔业、海洋交通运输业、船舶工业、滨海旅游业占有3/4江山。海洋渔业方面,中国自1990年始已是＂世界第一海产品大国＂;海洋交通运输业方面,中国港口吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量连续10年世界第一;船舶工业方面,中国于2010年超越韩国,跻身产量冠军。因此,虽然中国高调提出＂海洋经济”的概念只是近几年的事,鲁、浙、粤、闽四大海洋经济区的设立迟至2010年与2011年,可事实上中国早已是海洋经济大国。     

管理创新与逆向思维

逆向思维是一种反习惯、反传统、反常规的创造性思维方式。作为一种思维创新,它触发了管理创新,在管理领域具有广泛的应用。国内学者对创造性思维研究较多,而对逆向思维方面研究较少。本文尝试性地对逆向思维及其表现形式、逆向思维与管理创新的关系和逆向思维在管理中的应用作了一点研究。     

余秋雨：中华文化与海洋文明的千年悲壮

策划前言 对于扑面而来的海洋世纪,和当下中国如火如荼的海洋经济发展战略,我们该有怎样的立意、怎样的思维、怎样的行动？在刚刚结束不久的2012中国（青岛）国际海洋节期间,我国及国际著名的文化学者余秋雨先生,以＂中华文化与海洋文明的千年悲壮＂为题的主旨演讲,回答了上述疑虑。