Cross-country diffusion of photovoltaic systems: Modelling choices and forecasts for national adoption patterns

In this paper we propose an innovation diffusion framework based on well-known Bass models to analyze and forecast national adoption patterns of photovoltaic installed capacity. This allows for interesting comparisons among several countries and in many cases highlights the positive effect of incentive policies in stimulating the diffusion of such a technology. In this sense, the Generalized Bass Model proves to be essential for modelling and forecasting. On this basis, we observe important differences in the investments made by countries in the PV sector and we are able to identify whether and when these investments obtained the expected results. In particular, from our analysis it turns out that in some cases incentive measures have been certainly effective in facilitating adoption, while in some others these have not been able to produce real feed-back. Moreover, our cross-country approach is able to forecast different stages in PV evolution: whereas some countries have already entered the mature stage of diffusion, others have just begun. This result may suggest various considerations about the competitive advantage of those countries that invested in alternative energy provisions. In spite of a very diversified scenario in terms of historical patterns of diffusion, we may report, as a general result, the fragile role of innovators for this special market and the dominance of imitative behaviour in adoptions.     

Discrete Choice Analysis of Demand for Broadband in Japan

The remarkable development of Japan’s broadband (BB) market has attracted attention worldwide. This paper is one of the first to analyze Japan’s BB demand (including FTTH) using a discrete choice model. Our main conclusions are first, there is a distinction between narrowband (NB) and BB services based on a nested choice structure. Second, considering own-price elasticities of access demand, ADSL is inelastic, but FTTH and CATV are elastic. Third, in ADSL submarkets, low-speed and high-speed ADSL are becoming more elastic.     

Fiber in the backbone! The impact of broadband adoption on firm growth in network markets

This article examined the relationship between the adoption of technology, via the deployment of broadband, on revenue growth, which is an important measure of financial performance, of the deploying firms using panel data for all of the major local exchange carriers in the US telecommunications industry from 1988 to 2001. The sector is an important network market context where the implications of deployment have substantial salience. The results show a positive relationship between broadband deployment and carriers’ revenue growth. This result implies that encouraging the adoption and deployment of broadband technologies in addition to the benefits of the consumers and firms at the receiving end of the new technology create the potential for better financial performance for the deploying firms. These results also imply that steps that can be taken to provide incentives that will hasten the further deployment of broadband will result in gains in financial performance within the sector.     

The Value of Changes in Deer Season Length: An Application of the Nested Multinomial Logit Model

Increasing deer populations can be controlled through manipulatingharvest limits or season length. While such actions often result in benefitsto hunters, both motorists and the agricultural sector also benefit as alower deer population leads to fewer incidences of harmful human-deerencounters. Traditional recreation demand models are often employed toexamine the welfare implications of changes in daily hunting bag limits.Studies measuring the effects of changes in season length, however, arenoticeably absent from the literature. This study uses a nested randomutility model to examine hunter choice over site and season selection toderive the values of changes in season length.     

Environmental Valuation with Imperfect Information The Case of the Random Utility Model

This paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model (RUM) when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality. Environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good, so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices, ex postutility is determined by objective quality. Given this assumption, I derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality, and I show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by Hanemann (1982). This newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model.     

The adoption of new technology by the farmers in Taiwan

This study addresses the technologies the farmers adopted, their reasons for adopting these technologies and the result of adopting these technologies. The design and strategy used to collect the data needed are both qualitative and quantitative. Farmers who practised traditional farming methods and those who adopted the new technologies were both given survey questionnaires and were interviewed.

The result of the study shows that the technologies applied by the farmers are the use of tractors in tilling the ground, the use of machinery in planting, the practice of irrigation and the use of a combination of organic and commercial fertilizers. The reasons for the adoption of the latter are the availability of chemicals and the convenience of their use, and this is used to enhance the growth of plants. The results of the new technology adoption are high yields of produce, production of hybrid crops, and the saving of labour, thus increasing the income of the farmers.     

Job preferences of students and new graduates in nursing

This article investigates the preferences of student and newly graduated nurses for pecuniary and nonpecuniary aspects of nursing jobs. It is the first study applying methods based on discrete choice experiments to a developed country nursing workforce. It is also the first to focus on the transition through university training and into work. This is particularly important as junior nurses have the lowest retention levels in the profession. We sample 526 individuals from nursing programmes in two Australian universities. Flexible and newly developed models combining heteroscedasticity with unobserved heterogeneity in scale and preference weights are estimated. Overall, salary remains the most important feature in increasing the probability that a job will be selected. ‘Supportive management/staff’ and ‘quality of care’ follow as the most important attributes from a list of 11 nonpecuniary characteristics. However, the subset of new graduates rank ‘supportive management/staff’ above salary increases, emphasizing the importance of a supportive workplace in the transition from university to the workplace. We find substantial preference heterogeneity and some attributes, such as the opportunity for clinical rotations, are found to be attractive to some nurses while seen as negative by others. Nursing retention could be improved by designing different employment packages to appeal to these different tastes.     

The environmental Porter hypothesis: theory,evidence, and a model of timing of adoption

The Porter hypothesis postulates that the costs of compliance with environmental standards may be offset by adoption of innovations they trigger. We model this hypothesis using a game of timing of technology adoption. We will show that times of adoption will be earlier if the non-adoption tax is higher. The environmental tax will turn the preemption game with low profits into a game with credible precommitment generating higher profits (pro-Porter). If there is a precommitment game without environmental taxes, the introduction of a tax will lead to lower profits (anti-Porter). An evaluation of the empirical literature indicates that the Porter hypothesis will hold even for profit-maximizing firms under multiple market imperfections such as imperfect competition, X-inefficiency, and agency costs. These are more likely to be present in sectors with large firms. In many case studies that we have evaluated, though, we detected an element of explicit or implicit subsidies for environmentally friendly behaviour, which is in line with Pigovian policies.     

The role of peer imitation in agricultural index insurance adoption: Findings from lab-in-the-field experiments in Kyrgyzstan

Frequent climate shocks require farmers in developing countries to increase their resilience. Although index insurance is often discussed as a promising climate adaptation strategy, take-up rates are still low. This study primarily explores the role of peer behavior as peer imitation in the demand for three marketable and unsubsidized crop index insurance options. Furthermore, the influence of trust and understanding is investigated. We collected data in lab-in-the-field experiments among farmers in Kyrgyzstan, where index insurance is planned for imminent implementation. Applying ordered logit estimations, our results show significant and strong peer imitation effects. Imitation attitudes decrease with own insurance experience and received insurance payouts, but intensify with peer size, insurance trust and practical insurance understanding. While trust robustly increases index insurance adoption, understanding effects only gain significance in the dynamic perspective. These findings underline the importance of community-based extension treatments and trust toward the uptake of innovative agricultural technologies in the first steps of dissemination.     

The role of risk and risk-aversion in adoption of alternative marketing arrangements by the US farmers

The objective of this article is to analyse the relationship between farmers’ risk-aversions and the riskiness of various agricultural enterprises to see which marketing arrangements would typically emerge. Relying on the basic agency theory model, we hypothesize the prevalence of alternative marketing arrangements (AMAs) in situations with high risk-averse farmers and high-risk enterprises and the prevalence of spot (cash) markets for low risk-averse participants and less risky enterprises. Our empirical tests are carried out using the 2004 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS). The empirical results are largely supportive of the agency theory of contract choice.     

知情选择对中国避孕行为的影响分析

利用近三十年来的避孕抽样调查数据,考察知情选择的逐步展开对中国已婚育龄人群避孕行为的影响。育龄人群的避孕行为已随知情选择发生较大变化,短效自控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步升高,长效医控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步降低,避孕模式呈自由选择多元化发展态势。知情选择强化了个体因素在避孕措施选择中的决定作用,为育龄个体提供了更为自由的避孕选择空间。避孕行为受子女性别影响的社会事实长期存在,知情选择在一定程度上增加了性别偏好对避孕措施选择的影响。     

The public value of improving a weather forecasting system in Korea: a choice experiment study

The Korean government plans to improve the quality of its weather forecasting system in order to increase its public utility. The benefits arising from the implementation of this plan should be measured. To this end, this study applies a choice experiment to four attributes: the update frequency of both short- and medium-range forecasts, and the accuracy of both. A survey of 1000 randomly selected households was undertaken in Korea. In the study results, the marginal willingness-to-pays, respectively, for one more update of the short-range forecast per day, for a 1% increase in the accuracy of the short-range forecast, for changing the update frequency of the medium-range forecast from once a day (reference level) to twice a day, and for a 1% increase in the accuracy of the medium-range forecast as a result of improving the weather forecast service were estimated to be KRW 499.3 (USD 0.45), 108.3 (0.10), 346.5 (0.31), and 80.9 (0.07) per household per month. The findings can provide policy-makers with useful information for both evaluating and planning improvements in the weather forecasting system.     

The effects of one-way compatibility on technology adoption in systems markets

This paper analyzes the effects of one-way compatibility on technology adoption in a market that is characterized by a free-entry condition on the software side. We show that hardware-backward compatibility increases a new-generation hardware firm’s profit; the effects of software-backward compatibility on the hardware firm’s profits depend on the distribution of consumer types.     

跨国银行在华投资的省域选择

作为中国最活跃的金融机构之一,外资银行在大陆的投资活动受到各省级政府的关注。在确立跨国银行进入大陆省级区域基本理论框架的基础上,文章利用1996年初至2006年7月底在华265家外资银行机构的最新数据,运用条件Logit离散选择模型对跨国银行在华投资区域决定因子进行实证分析,结果显示:市场需求因素和区域金融基础设施因素对外资银行有显著的吸引力,而区域政策环境因素和经营成本因素则无显著影响。各省域招商外资银行的工作重点应立足发展本地经济、营造外资集聚、完善金融市场、提升人力资源管理水平和做好外资银行机构的服务等工作,而非一味地提供种种优惠。     

The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment

Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the chance of loan approval, but indigenous women have only 1.5 times the chance of loan approval when compared with men. While the findings about gender are limited, the evidence for the interaction of gender and ethnicity is more robust and suggests the existence of positive taste‐based discrimination favorable for nonethnic women in Bolivia. We conclude that the affirmative actions towards women promoted by development agencies and microfinance institutions must not overlook ethnicity as an important factor for financial policies of sustainable development. In practice, these policies should be aimed at identifying and reducing both social desirability bias and the structural barriers to financial inclusion that indigenous women may face when trying to obtain access to a loan.     

The societal burden of pain in Germany: Health-related quality-of-life,health status and direct medical costs

Abstract

Objectives:

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the severity and frequency of pain on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL), self-reported health status, and direct medical costs in Germany.

Methods:

Data are from the internet-based 2010 National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS). Estimates of the impact of pain experience are generated by a series of regression models. In the case of HRQoL the physical and mental summary scores from the SF-12, together with SF-6D utilities, are evaluated within an ordinary least squares framework. Health status is assessed through an ordered logit model. Direct medical costs are estimated through a semi-logarithmic healthcare cost function. Socioeconomic characteristics, health risk behaviors, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) are introduced as control variables in all regressions.

Results:

An estimated 23.96% of the adult German population (16.39 million) reported experiencing pain in the last 30 days. Of these 13.16% reported severe pain. The experience of frequent severe and moderate pain has a significant deficit impact on HRQoL. For those experiencing severe daily pain, the deficit in the SF-12 physical component score (PCS) is ?17.930 (95% CI: ?18.720 to ?17.140), the SF-12 mental component score (MCS) is ?8.787 (05% CI: ?9.857 to ?7.716), and SF-6D absolute utilities ?0.201 (95% CI: ?0.214 to ?0.188); with self-reported health status the deficit impact of severe daily pain is also substantial (OR?=?29.000; 95% CI: 23.000–36.580). In the case of direct medical costs severe daily pain increases healthcare provider costs by 101.6% and total direct costs by 123.9%.

Limitations:

The NHWS is an internet survey. The principal limitation is that as a self-report there is no separate validation of pain severity or chronicity.

Conclusions:

The experience of pain has a substantial negative impact on HRQoL, health status, and resource utilization in Germany. If pain is considered as a disease in its own right, the experience of chronic pain presents policy-makers with a major challenge.     

The impact of income,economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China: evidence from dynamic panel quantile regression

The rapid growth of housing prices has attracted the attention of the whole of society in China. This article adopts the dynamic panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of income, economic openness and interest rates on housing prices in China, based on the panel data of 35 major cities from 2002 to 2012. Compared with previous studies, we can more precisely and reasonably discuss the impact of these variables on different levels of housing prices. The empirical results indicate that the impact of independent variables on housing prices is heterogeneous across quantiles. Specifically, the impact of income is positive and significant across quantiles, and the impact becomes greater at the 90th and 95th quantiles. Economic openness has a positive and significant effect at the 5th–80th quantiles, which support the Balassa–Samuelson effect, but it is insignificant at the 90th and 95th quantiles. The impact of interest rates is positive and significant at low quantiles, but the impact is negative and insignificant at high quantiles. Furthermore, we also find that the coefficients of interest rates at various quantiles are smaller. In addition, the population has a significant positive effect across quantiles. Finally, we provide important policy implications.     

强化公共属性，助力城市发展：德国慕尼黑城市公园建设及启示

广泛的国际经验研究可为中国的公园城市建设提供科学、有效的策略支撑,并推动其相关理论的完善。系统梳理了德国慕尼黑在不同历史时期城市公园的发展脉络,总结了其城市公园系统的分级、分类与分布特征,解析了慕尼黑公园建设中表达其公共属性的4项特征,即全员化的运动场地设置、全方位的社会服务供给、丰富多样的文娱活动,以及灵活高效的功能转换。这些宝贵的经验将为我国新时期的城市发展建设提供有益的借鉴与启示。     

The Effect of Respondent Experience/Knowledge in the Elicitation of Contingent Values: An Investigation of Convergent Validity,Procedural Invariance and Reliability

Tests of convergent validity and procedural invariance were used to investigate whether individuals lacking direct experience with a commodity can provide valid responses to contingent-valuation questions eliciting ex post use values. Convergent validity between samples with and without experience was shown to hold for dichotomous-choice responses, but not for open-ended responses.     

Between mathematical formalism,normative choice rules,and the behavioural sciences: The emergence of rational choice theories in the late 1940s and early 1950s

Abstract

This paper discusses why mathematical economists of the early Cold War period favored formal-axiomatic over behavioral choice theories. One reason was that formal-axiomatic theories allowed mathematical economists to improve the conceptual and theoretical foundations of economics and thereby to increase its scientific status. Furthermore, the separation between mathematical economics and other behavioral sciences was not as clear-cut as often argued. While economists did not modify their behavioral assumptions, some acknowledged the empirical shortcomings of their models. The paper reveals the multifaceted nature of rational choice theories reflected in the changing interpretations and roles of the theories in those early years.