Cross-country diffusion of photovoltaic systems: Modelling choices and forecasts for national adoption patterns

In this paper we propose an innovation diffusion framework based on well-known Bass models to analyze and forecast national adoption patterns of photovoltaic installed capacity. This allows for interesting comparisons among several countries and in many cases highlights the positive effect of incentive policies in stimulating the diffusion of such a technology. In this sense, the Generalized Bass Model proves to be essential for modelling and forecasting. On this basis, we observe important differences in the investments made by countries in the PV sector and we are able to identify whether and when these investments obtained the expected results. In particular, from our analysis it turns out that in some cases incentive measures have been certainly effective in facilitating adoption, while in some others these have not been able to produce real feed-back. Moreover, our cross-country approach is able to forecast different stages in PV evolution: whereas some countries have already entered the mature stage of diffusion, others have just begun. This result may suggest various considerations about the competitive advantage of those countries that invested in alternative energy provisions. In spite of a very diversified scenario in terms of historical patterns of diffusion, we may report, as a general result, the fragile role of innovators for this special market and the dominance of imitative behaviour in adoptions.     

Discrete Choice Analysis of Demand for Broadband in Japan

The remarkable development of Japan’s broadband (BB) market has attracted attention worldwide. This paper is one of the first to analyze Japan’s BB demand (including FTTH) using a discrete choice model. Our main conclusions are first, there is a distinction between narrowband (NB) and BB services based on a nested choice structure. Second, considering own-price elasticities of access demand, ADSL is inelastic, but FTTH and CATV are elastic. Third, in ADSL submarkets, low-speed and high-speed ADSL are becoming more elastic.     

The Value of Changes in Deer Season Length: An Application of the Nested Multinomial Logit Model

Increasing deer populations can be controlled through manipulatingharvest limits or season length. While such actions often result in benefitsto hunters, both motorists and the agricultural sector also benefit as alower deer population leads to fewer incidences of harmful human-deerencounters. Traditional recreation demand models are often employed toexamine the welfare implications of changes in daily hunting bag limits.Studies measuring the effects of changes in season length, however, arenoticeably absent from the literature. This study uses a nested randomutility model to examine hunter choice over site and season selection toderive the values of changes in season length.     

Environmental Valuation with Imperfect Information The Case of the Random Utility Model

This paper considers welfare analysis with therandom utility model (RUM) when perceptions ofenvironmental quality differ from objectivemeasures of environmental quality. Environmental quality is assumed to be anexperience good, so that while perceptions ofquality determine choices, ex postutility is determined by objective quality. Given this assumption, I derive a measure ofthe welfare impact of changes in environmentalquality, and I show how this new welfaremeasure differs from the traditional welfaremeasure developed by Hanemann (1982). This newwelfare measure provides an approach tomeasuring the value of information aboutenvironmental quality within the framework ofthe random utility model.     

Job preferences of students and new graduates in nursing

This article investigates the preferences of student and newly graduated nurses for pecuniary and nonpecuniary aspects of nursing jobs. It is the first study applying methods based on discrete choice experiments to a developed country nursing workforce. It is also the first to focus on the transition through university training and into work. This is particularly important as junior nurses have the lowest retention levels in the profession. We sample 526 individuals from nursing programmes in two Australian universities. Flexible and newly developed models combining heteroscedasticity with unobserved heterogeneity in scale and preference weights are estimated. Overall, salary remains the most important feature in increasing the probability that a job will be selected. ‘Supportive management/staff’ and ‘quality of care’ follow as the most important attributes from a list of 11 nonpecuniary characteristics. However, the subset of new graduates rank ‘supportive management/staff’ above salary increases, emphasizing the importance of a supportive workplace in the transition from university to the workplace. We find substantial preference heterogeneity and some attributes, such as the opportunity for clinical rotations, are found to be attractive to some nurses while seen as negative by others. Nursing retention could be improved by designing different employment packages to appeal to these different tastes.     

The effects of one-way compatibility on technology adoption in systems markets

This paper analyzes the effects of one-way compatibility on technology adoption in a market that is characterized by a free-entry condition on the software side. We show that hardware-backward compatibility increases a new-generation hardware firm’s profit; the effects of software-backward compatibility on the hardware firm’s profits depend on the distribution of consumer types.     

跨国银行在华投资的省域选择

作为中国最活跃的金融机构之一,外资银行在大陆的投资活动受到各省级政府的关注。在确立跨国银行进入大陆省级区域基本理论框架的基础上,文章利用1996年初至2006年7月底在华265家外资银行机构的最新数据,运用条件Logit离散选择模型对跨国银行在华投资区域决定因子进行实证分析,结果显示:市场需求因素和区域金融基础设施因素对外资银行有显著的吸引力,而区域政策环境因素和经营成本因素则无显著影响。各省域招商外资银行的工作重点应立足发展本地经济、营造外资集聚、完善金融市场、提升人力资源管理水平和做好外资银行机构的服务等工作,而非一味地提供种种优惠。     

The societal burden of pain in Germany: Health-related quality-of-life,health status and direct medical costs

Abstract

Objectives:

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the severity and frequency of pain on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL), self-reported health status, and direct medical costs in Germany.

Methods:

Data are from the internet-based 2010 National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS). Estimates of the impact of pain experience are generated by a series of regression models. In the case of HRQoL the physical and mental summary scores from the SF-12, together with SF-6D utilities, are evaluated within an ordinary least squares framework. Health status is assessed through an ordered logit model. Direct medical costs are estimated through a semi-logarithmic healthcare cost function. Socioeconomic characteristics, health risk behaviors, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) are introduced as control variables in all regressions.

Results:

An estimated 23.96% of the adult German population (16.39 million) reported experiencing pain in the last 30 days. Of these 13.16% reported severe pain. The experience of frequent severe and moderate pain has a significant deficit impact on HRQoL. For those experiencing severe daily pain, the deficit in the SF-12 physical component score (PCS) is ?17.930 (95% CI: ?18.720 to ?17.140), the SF-12 mental component score (MCS) is ?8.787 (05% CI: ?9.857 to ?7.716), and SF-6D absolute utilities ?0.201 (95% CI: ?0.214 to ?0.188); with self-reported health status the deficit impact of severe daily pain is also substantial (OR?=?29.000; 95% CI: 23.000–36.580). In the case of direct medical costs severe daily pain increases healthcare provider costs by 101.6% and total direct costs by 123.9%.

Limitations:

The NHWS is an internet survey. The principal limitation is that as a self-report there is no separate validation of pain severity or chronicity.

Conclusions:

The experience of pain has a substantial negative impact on HRQoL, health status, and resource utilization in Germany. If pain is considered as a disease in its own right, the experience of chronic pain presents policy-makers with a major challenge.     

The Effect of Respondent Experience/Knowledge in the Elicitation of Contingent Values: An Investigation of Convergent Validity,Procedural Invariance and Reliability

Tests of convergent validity and procedural invariance were used to investigate whether individuals lacking direct experience with a commodity can provide valid responses to contingent-valuation questions eliciting ex post use values. Convergent validity between samples with and without experience was shown to hold for dichotomous-choice responses, but not for open-ended responses.