Localised Technological Change: The Interaction Between The Generation And The Diffusion Of New Technologies

The main contribution of this paper is to explore the role played by heterogeneity in supply and demand in selecting technological paths amongst many different alternatives, and in localising technological change in niches of potential adopters. Technological change is therefore inherently localised. For given levels of technological superiority, the innovations that are selected during the diffusion process are shown to be sensitive to the specificities of the production process at those points.     

Competing auctions with endogenous quantities

Two sellers decide on their discrete supply of a homogenous good. There is a finite number of buyers with unit demand and privately known valuations. In the first model, there is a centralized market place where a uniform auction takes place. In the second, there are two distinct auction sites, each with one seller, and buyers decide where to bid. Using the theory of potential games, we show that in the one-site auction model there is always an equilibrium in pure-strategies. In contrast, if the distribution of buyers values has an increasing failure rate, and if the marginal cost of production is relatively low, there is no pure-strategy equilibrium where both sellers make positive profits in the competing sites model. We also identify conditions under which an equilibrium with a unique active site exists. We deal with the finite and discrete models by using several results about order statistics developed by Richard Barlow and Frank Proschan [R. Barlow, F. Proschan, Mathematical Theory of Reliability, Wiley, New York, 1965; R. Barlow, F. Proschan, Inequalities for linear combinations of order statistics from restricted families, Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966) 1593-1601; R. Barlow, F. Proschan, Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing, McArdle Press, Silver Spring, 1975].     

Trading mechanism selection with directed search when buyers are risk averse

We endogenize the trading mechanism selection in a model of directed search with risk averse buyers and show that the unique symmetric equilibrium entails all sellers using fixed price trading. Mechanisms that prescribe the sale price as a function of the realized demand (auctions, bargaining, discount pricing, etc.) expose buyers to the “price risk”, the uncertainty of not knowing how much to pay in advance. Fixed price trading eliminates the price risk, which is why risk averse customers accept paying more to shop at such stores.     

Learning about the arrival of sales

We analyse optimal stopping when the economic environment changes because of learning. A primary application is optimal selling of an asset when demand is uncertain. The seller learns about the arrival rate of buyers. As time passes without a sale, the seller becomes more pessimistic about the arrival rate. When the arrival of buyers is not observed, the rate at which the seller revises her beliefs is affected by the price she sets. Learning leads to a higher posted price by the seller. When the seller does observe the arrival of buyers, she sets an even higher price.     

Dynamic sorting in durable goods markets with buyer heterogeneity

In a competitive dynamic durable good market where sellers have private information about quality, I identify certain inefficiencies that arise due to heterogeneity in buyers' valuations. Even if the market induces dynamic sorting among sellers and all goods are eventually traded, inefficiency can arise because high valuation buyers buy early when low‐quality goods are sold, while high‐quality goods are allocated to low valuation buyers that buy later. This misallocation adds to the inefficiency caused by delay in trading. Under certain circumstances, high‐quality goods may never be traded as in a static market.     

Sequential auctions with randomly arriving buyers

We analyze a dynamic market in which buyers compete in a sequence of private-value auctions for differentiated goods. New buyers and new objects may arrive at random times. Since objects are imperfect substitutes, buyers? values are not persistent. Instead, each buyer?s private value for a new object is a new independent draw from the same distribution.We consider the use of second-price auctions for selling these objects, and show that there exists a unique symmetric Markov equilibrium in this market. In equilibrium, buyers shade their bids down by their continuation value, which is the (endogenous) option value of participating in future auctions. We characterize this option value and show that it depends not only on the number of buyers currently present on the market and the distribution of their values, but also on anticipated market dynamics.     

企业研发外包中的交易效率与决策模型研究

继制造业全球重组和转移之后,以信息技术外包和业务流程外包等服务外包为代表的服务业转移蓬勃发展,已成为不可逆转的新一轮全球产业革命和产业转移趋势,而研发外包是目前外包领域中新兴的形式。以往的研究认为,研发活动是企业的核心流程,外包的市场交易费用高,传统交易费用理论难以解释研发外包的发展。以交易成本理论为基础,借助新兴古典经济学的分析方法,从理论上分析研发外包活动存在的合理性,指出网络信息技术有效提高研发活动交易效率是决定企业外包决策的重要因素。     

An optimal auction with correlated values and risk aversion

We consider an auction setting where the buyers are risk averse with correlated private valuations (CARA preferences, binary types), and characterize the optimal mechanism for a risk-neutral seller. We show that the optimal auction extracts all buyer surplus whenever the correlation is sufficiently strong (greater than 1/3 in absolute value), no matter how risk averse the buyers are. In contrast, we note that a sufficiently risk-averse seller would not use a full rent extracting mechanism for any positive correlation of the valuations even if the buyers were risk neutral.     

An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK

A general to specific methodology is used to construct UK demand for outbound tourism models to twelve destinations. A tourism destination preference index is introduced to take into account social, cultural and psychological influences on tourists' decisions concerning their overseas holiday destinations. The tests support the existence of a cointegration relationship for each of 11 UK overseas holiday destinations. The corresponding error correction models are estimated. The empirical results show that the long-run income elasticities for all destinations range from 1.70 to 3.90 with an average of 2.367. The lowest and highest short-run income elasticities are 1.05 and 3.78 respectively, with an average of 2.216. The estimates of the income elasticities imply that overseas holidays are highly income elastic while the own-price elasticities suggest that the demand for UK outbound tourism is relatively own-price inelastic. In terms of the significance of substitution prices in the regression equations, Ireland is the favourite substitute destination for UK outbound tourists. Ex post forecasts over a period of six years are generated from the ECM models and the results compared with those of a naive model, an AR(1) model, an ARMA(p,q) model, and a VAR model. The forecasting performance criteria show that the ECM model has the best overall forecasting performance for UK outbound tourism.     

Ascending price Vickrey auctions for general valuations

Ascending price auctions involving a single price path and buyers paying their final bid price cannot achieve the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) outcome in the combinatorial auctions setting. Using a notion called universal competitive equilibrium prices, shown to be necessary and sufficient to achieve the VCG outcome using ascending price auctions, we define a class of ascending price auctions in which buyers bid on a single price path. Truthful bidding by buyers is an ex post Nash equilibrium in such auctions. By giving discounts to buyers from the final price, the VCG outcome is achieved for general valuations.     

Monopoly and demand uncertainty

We develop a formal framework to analyse a monopoly’s problem when demand is determined by a Poisson-distribution and the valuations of the buyers are draws from a common distribution. The buyers have unit demand, and the good in question is discrete. The monopoly has to make its quantity and pricing decisions before demand is realised. We determine sufficient conditions for the monopoly’s pricing decision to be unique, and we demonstrate the difference to the planner’s problem by numerical examples. We also study an economy with a fixed number of buyers assuming that the valuations are draws from the uniform distribution. When the economy grows in the limit one recovers the standard case of a monopoly with linear demand and constant marginal costs.     

Durability in a Monopoly With a Small Number of Buyers

This paper shows that the number of buyers is a crucial demand characteristic for a monopolist's choice of durability. When he sells to a few large buyers, he offers a more durable good than when selling to many small buyers. By increasing durability of the good sold to large buyers, the monopolist encourages current purchasing and can thus engage in greater intertemporal price discrimination and make more profit. Therefore Bulow's proposition of minimal durability does not survive in the case of few buyers. This has not been pointed out thus far.     

WHO SEARCHES?*

We consider a directed search model with buyers and sellers and determine whether buyers look for sellers or vice versa. The buyers and sellers can choose to search or wait; what they do in equilibrium depends on the relative size of the two populations and the price formation mechanism. We study bargaining and auctions and find that when one population is much larger than the other the former searches and the latter waits. Under auction with roughly equal populations some buyers and sellers search and some wait. Our results challenge the practice of postulating who searches and who waits.     

Durable goods produced by state owned enterprises

A two-period durable-goods monopoly model is analyzed where the durable good is provided by a state owned enterprise (SOE). First, we suppose that the SOE is under pressure to provide employment, and therefore has an employment goal, as well as the traditional profit and consumer surplus objectives. Assuming that the SOE has difficulty committing to current buyers with respect to its profit and employment motives, we find that as the employment burden increases, the SOE tends to move further away from the efficient durability and provides a lower durability level than a pure profit maximizer. Additionally, we show that a durable-goods SOE without commitment power, will wish to partially privatize to help mitigate its commitment problem with buyers and increase social welfare. Both of these findings provide economic rationale for the partial privatization of SOEs in transitioning economies that have not been identified in the literature prior to this.     

Price discrimination of buyers with identical preferences and collusion in a model of advertising

A model of advertising and price distributions is investigated whereby each seller can contact different buyers, whose preferences are identical, with different probabilities. The model features a continuum of equilibria parametrized by the ratio of the buyers contacted by one seller—differing across “market segments”—and by the other sellers. In general, the sellers practice price discrimination across segments. More asymmetric equilibria correspond to higher volumes of transactions and higher expected transaction prices. This results in a lower expected utility for the buyers and higher expected profits; thus, identifying areas of influence can help the sellers to support collusion.     

Fake Sales: A Dynamic Pricing Perspective

Some sellers display high “regular” prices, but mark down these prices the vast majority of the time, advertising the good as “on sale” or “discounted”. This note suggests a framework for understanding the practice, emphasising the role of buyer uncertainty about their future valuations for the good. We argue that so‐called “regular” prices set buyers’ expectations regarding future prices, expectations that need not be tethered to the prices actually set. By manipulating upwards buyers’ expectations of future prices, the seller can increase demand for the good at the current “sale” price, increasing profits.     

Sustainable reputations with rating systems

In a product choice game played between a long lived seller and an infinite sequence of buyers, we assume that buyers cannot observe past signals. To facilitate the analysis of applications such as online auctions (e.g. eBay), online shopping search engines (e.g. BizRate.com) and consumer reports, we assume that a central mechanism observes all past signals, and makes public announcements every period. The set of announcements and the mapping from observed signals to the set of announcements is called a rating system. We show that, absent reputation effects, information censoring cannot improve attainable payoffs. However, if there is an initial probability that the seller is a commitment type that plays a particular strategy every period, then there exists a finite rating system and an equilibrium of the resulting game such that, the expected present discounted payoff of the seller is almost his Stackelberg payoff after every history. This is in contrast to Cripps, Mailath and Samuelson (2004) [5], where it is shown that reputation effects do not last forever in such games if buyers can observe all past signals. We also construct finite rating systems that increase payoffs of almost all buyers, while decreasing the seller?s payoff.     

A nearly optimal auction for an uninformed seller

This paper describes a nearly optimal auction mechanism that does not require previous knowledge of the distribution of values of potential buyers. The mechanism we propose builds on the new literature on the elicitation of information from experts. We extend the latter to the case where the secret information shared by the experts–potential buyers in our model–can be used against them if it becomes public knowledge.     

Optimal selling strategies when buyers may have hard information

Consider a revenue-maximizing seller who can sell an object to one of n potential buyers. Each buyer either has hard information about his valuation (i.e., evidence that cannot be forged) or is ignorant. The optimal mechanism is characterized. It turns out that more ignorance can increase the expected total surplus. Even when the buyers are ex ante symmetric, the object may be sold to a buyer who does not have the largest willingness-to-pay. Nevertheless, an additional buyer increases the expected total surplus in the symmetric case, whereas more competition can be harmful if there are ex ante asymmetries.     

Robust monopoly pricing

We consider a robust version of the classic problem of optimal monopoly pricing with incomplete information. In the robust version, the seller faces model uncertainty and only knows that the true demand distribution is in the neighborhood of a given model distribution. We characterize the pricing policies under two distinct decision criteria with multiple priors: (i) maximin utility and (ii) minimax regret. The equilibrium price under either criterion is lower then in the absence of uncertainty. The concern for robustness leads the seller to concede a larger information rent to all buyers with values below the optimal price without uncertainty.