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1.
Recent terrorist acts, in particular the 9-11 attacks in 2001, have created disruptions in the global economy. The short-term impact had been felt in the global tourism, airline industries, as well as the financial markets. While the global economy has recovered and is adjusting to the new global realities, the longer-term impact of heightened security risk across the world can be felt in the form of higher risk premiums in asset markets, as well as a shift of resources towards dealing with terrorism. Just as World War II had accelerated the development of nuclear energy as well as a major contributing factor in the genesis of Silicon Valley, the current war against terrorism will affect both the pace and trajectory of technology trends, as efforts are focused on developing technologies to combat terrorism. In this paper, we review the effects of the current war on terrorism in terms of its impact on the economy, the allocation of resources to R&D, and the trajectory of future R&D.  相似文献   

2.
Scale effects in Schumpeterian models of economic growth   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Early models of Schumpeterian growth incorporate scale effects predicting that large economies grow faster than small economies, and that population growth causes accelerating per capita income growth. An absence of clear empirical evidence for these scale effects has led some researchers to question the foundations underlying the Schumpeterian approach to growth. This paper reviews empirical evidence on the relationship between scale and growth, and recent attempts to construct Schumpeterian growth models without scale effects.  相似文献   

3.
We build a model of R&D-based growth in which the discovery of higher-quality products is governed by sequential stochastic innovation contests. We term the costly attempts of incumbent firms to safeguard the monopoly rents from their past innovations rent-protecting activities. Our analysis (1) offers a novel explanation of the observation that the difficulty of conducting R&D has been increasing over time, (2) establishes the emergence of endogenous scale-invariant long-run innovation and growth, and (3) identifies a new structural barrier to innovation and growth. We also show that long-run growth depends positively on proportional R&D subsidies, the population growth rate, and the size of innovations, but negatively on the market interest rate and the effectiveness of rent-protecting activities. An unpublished version of this paper was circulated earlier under the title “Innovation and Rent Protection in the Theory of Schumpeterian Growth.” We thank an anonymous referee and seminar participants in several venues for useful comments and suggestions.  相似文献   

4.
    
ABSTRACT

Using firm-level data, we estimate the returns to R&D investments for a sample of European manufacturing firms over the period 2007–2009. Results confirm that R&D efforts are positively related to productivity regardless of firm type (family or nonfamily firms). Additionally, we find that family firms invested more in R&D than nonfamily firms, but the returns to their R&D investments are low, emphasizing that they have a lower capacity to translate R&D investments into economic gains.  相似文献   

5.
How do growth and cycles interact? Endogenous growth and business cycle theories are integrated to explain business cycles over different frequencies, especially at lower frequencies, on the balanced growth path. A new variable-R&;D time period-broadens the concept of intertemporal substitution and determines the durations of the medium and long cycles. As a result, the evolution of technology is separated from short-run shocks. A more promising new invention shrinks the R&;D period since waiting is costly, which pushes up the level of economic activity and causes a boom, while a less promising new invention does the opposite. The level of economic activity in turn affects the near-term growth rate. Thus, a recession is not caused by a negative shock as in the standard real business cycle models, but can be associated with a positive, though lower, growth rate of technology. The results capture the major features of U.S. data in both time and frequency domains.  相似文献   

6.
    

This paper studies vertical R&D spillovers between upstream and downstream firms. The model incorporates two vertically related industries, with horizontal spillovers within each industry and vertical spillovers between the two industries. Four types of R&D cooperation are studied: no cooperation, horizontal cooperation, vertical cooperation, and simultaneous horizontal and vertical cooperation. Vertical spillovers always increase R&D and welfare, while horizontal spillovers may increase or decrease them. The comparison of cooperative settings in terms of R&D shows that no setting uniformly dominates the others. Which type of cooperation yields more R&D depends on horizontal and vertical spillovers, and market structure. The ranking of cooperative structures hinges on the signs and magnitudes of three \"competitive externalities\" (vertical, horizontal, and diagonal) which capture the effect of the R&D of a firm on the profits of other firms. One of the basic results of the strategic investment literature is that cooperation between competitors decreases R&D when horizontal spillovers are low; the model shows that this result does not necessarily hold when vertical spillovers are sufficiently high, and/or when horizontal cooperation is combined with vertical cooperation.  相似文献   

7.
In combinatorial models of innovations, new technologies are built from combinations of pre-existing technological components. Researchers learn which components work well together by observing previously successful combinations and the pool of ideas can be ‘fished out’, i.e. exhausted, if it is not ‘restocked’ by the discovery of novel connections. We first show US patents have made increasingly less novel connections among technological constituents since the 1950s, and that the number of technological fields to which these connections are applicable has stopped growing since the 1980s. We then estimate the parameters of an ideas production function, and find parameter estimates consistent with technology fields being fished out if not continually restocked by the discovery of novel connections between technological components. We use the ideas production function to estimate the number of new patent applications induced by each patent granted between 1926 and 2001, and show this number has trended downward since the 1940s.  相似文献   

8.
    
ABSTRACT

Using a vector-error-correction model (VECM) with total factor productivity (TFP), domestic and foreign research and development investment (R&D) as well as GDP, we find that for the Netherlands for the period 1968–2014, extra investment in public and private R&D has a clear positive effect on TFP growth and GDP. Taking into account the costs of these extra investments, we find that the rate of return to such a policy is positive and high. We also find dynamic complementarity of public and private stocks of R&D for a long period after the initial shock. However, our results also show that the productivity effects on the Dutch economy are weaker when they are part of an internationally concerted policy effort, i.e. when other OECD countries implement policies with the same effects on R&D stocks in their countries. While complements in the long run equations of the model, in the adjustment process Dutch domestic private R&D appears to consider foreign public R&D as a substitute, i.e. when foreign public R&D rises, Dutch private R&D tends to shrink.  相似文献   

9.
The paper presents a novel tax that is designed to improve the performance of research and development (R&D) investments. Ideally, the tax allows the technical efficiencies of monopoly while bringing about the desirable effects of the competitive pressure of R&D rivalry. Thus, with the tax, the state can sanction a monopoly of R&D investment in order to attain technical efficiencies and yet avoid the underinvestment in R&D that would result without competitive pressures. A critique of the tax emphasizes the problems of implementing it and offers a more practical alternative that would achieve the same desirable effects.  相似文献   

10.
The Long-Run Growth Effects of R&D Subsidies   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
This article presents a generalized versionof Howitt's (1999) model of R&D-driven growth withoutscale effects and a complete characterization of the long-rungrowth effects of R&D subsidies. R&D subsidiescan either promote or retard long-run economic growth, and surprisingly,the growth-retarding outcome occurs for a wide range of plausibleparameter values. This article also presents a new intuitiveexplanation for why R&D subsidies can have long-rungrowth effects (both positive and negative).  相似文献   

11.

The paper explores the productivity effects of investment in external (contract) vs. internal (in-house) R&D in a sample of West-German Manufacturing Industries. The results provide strong evidence of a positive relationship between productivity and the share of external R&D in total R&D. This result is robust to alternative econometric specifications. Thus, findings suggest that the decision between internal and external R&D does matter. Moreover, results imply a nonlinear relationship between productivity and the share of external R&D for higher-technology industries, hinting at decreasing productivity effects of an increasing share of external in total R&D.  相似文献   

12.
    
This article focuses on the question of whether public policy changes and/or the new economy have influenced the social returns to R&D expenditure in UK manufacturing over the three decades up to the end of the millennium. The basic methodology is reasonably straightforward, to estimate a production function in which, in addition to labour and fixed capital, R&D appears separately in a form that directly enables estimates of the social return to investment in knowledge and how it has changed over time. The results suggest that neither changes in government R&D policy nor the new economy have raised social returns to R&D.  相似文献   

13.
Cooperation and the efficiency of regional R&D activities   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
This paper investigates the relationship between the cooperativebehaviour of manufacturing establishments in a region and theefficiency of their R&D activities, using data for 11 Europeanregions. Some significant differences in the attitude towardsR&D cooperation as well as with regard to the efficiencyof R&D activities between the regions can be found. However,these two issues appear to a large degree to be empiricallyunrelated. Therefore, the role of R&D cooperation in regionalinnovation systems remains unclear.  相似文献   

14.
    
ABSTRACT

Following the evolutionist and neo-schumpeterian approach and the literature on additionality of innovation policy, this paper evaluates the impact of public funding to innovation on the intensity of the R&D expenditures and on the intensity of the employment in innovation. The analysis is based on recent evidence of Argentine manufacturing firms surveyed by ENDEI for 2010–2012 using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method. The results show a positive impact on the intensity of the R&D effort of the supported firms in monetary terms, allowing us to reject the full crowding-out hypothesis. However, the positive monetary impact is not accompanied by a greater proportion of employment oriented to innovation activities, neither formal nor informal; so it is not possible to conclude that the analyzed policy translates into an improvement in the innovation competencies of the firms based on this indicator.  相似文献   

15.
We analyze the influence of innovation on growth rates of employment in 859 Dutch manufacturing firms over the period 1983–1988. Whereas the (growth of the) R&D intensity of firms has a slightly negative impact on employment, we find that firms with a high share of product-related R&D (as a proxi of R&D related to industrial activities in an early stage of the life cycle) experienced an above average growth of employment. The same holds for firms which directed their R&D towards information technology. Smaller firms have, ceteris paribus, substantially higher growth rates of employment than their larger counterparts. Against our expectations, R&D cooperation has no significant impact on employment growth. The same holds for activities in the fields of biotechnology and new materials.  相似文献   

16.
    
This paper studies spillover effects of innovation at the firm level and the comparability of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators with maximum likelihood estimators of the earlier studies. Two sources of spillovers are identified, i.e. intra-industry R&D expenditure and intra-industry innovation output. This paper estimates a negative R&D spillover effect and a positive output spillover effect. Because of the substitution effect of intra-industry R&D spillovers, the elasticity of patent with respect to firm's own R&D expenditure is greater than those estimated in the earlier studies. With GMM, individual effects are incorporated into the models either by developing proxies for them or attempting to eliminate them.  相似文献   

17.
    
Many studies have established the importance of investment in R&D to facilitate innovation and consequently improve firm productivity. Firms decide whether or not to undertake R&D depending on a range of factors such as market orientation, business objectives, competitive advantages and absorptive capacity. This paper studies the factors that influence this decision in peripheral locations; and for firms that do not undertake R&D, we analyse the reasons for not doing so. The research is based on data from a survey of some 250 matched firms operating in Northern Ireland, about half undertaking R&D and half not. Northern Ireland is an interesting case study because it exhibits a low level of investment in R&D despite the public subsidies and policy initiatives that have existed over the last 30 years. For firms that undertake R&D, our results mostly confirm the findings of others while for firms that do not undertake R&D the results point to a capabilities-gap rather than a resource-gap as the fundamental problem. Policy conclusions are drawn as to what might be done to boost both the amount of R&D undertaken and the number of firms engaged in R&D in peripheral regions.  相似文献   

18.
    
A model is developed of the relation between adoption of an innovation by firms and firm size. Decision making is represented as a group assessment of the perceived ratio between expected returns after succesful introduction, and the risk that implementation will fail or will last too long to makc adoption worth while. In view of differences in thc assessment of uncertainty and corresponding demands on the perceived return-to-risk ratio, among influencers of decisions in the firm, decision making is taken as stochastic, with a probability of adoption related to (objective) net benefits, and probability of non-adoption related to risk. The model gives a new way of looking at the fact that small firms lag behind in the adoption of new technology. In contrast with previous models proposed by David and Davies the explanation has nothing to do with there being some critical size below which adoption is not profitable. The present model explains the adoption lag for smaller firms as the result of expected returns being proportional to size while risk of failed implementation is independent of size. The model is tested and estimated empirically on data for the adoption of computers in small scale retailing, in the Netherlands.  相似文献   

19.
    
Oscar Afonso 《Applied economics》2016,48(32):2973-2993
This article proposes a theoretical knowledge-driven horizontal research and development (R&D) endogenous-growth model to explain, for 10 innovative countries, the co-movement of the respective R&D intensity, economic growth and firm-size growth, by exploring short-medium-run and long-run growth effects. Bearing in mind some recent literature, we improve the R&D technology, by considering that R&D is more labour intensive through time as complexity increases, that the diffusion of designs is affected by coordination, organizational and transportation costs, and that a potential entrant will come up with the right idea is reduced because of the presence of a larger number of entrants. We show that when the economy is not initially in a steady state, it can take a saddle path towards the unique and locally saddle-path stable interior steady state. Both transitional-dynamics and steady-state behaviours of our theoretical model are then consistent with, respectively, the time-series and the cross-sectional evidence.  相似文献   

20.
A model of endogenous growth, based on Schumpeter's notion of trustified capitalism, is developed and applied to firm-level data for the period 1973–1991. The model relates the market value of a firm to its current profits and to its R&D expenditures. The relationship depends upon the expected rate of knowledge growth, the expected value of an innovation and the elasticity of the R&D production function. Over the sample period, investors expected knowledge to grow at an average rate of 5 percent, a measure which reflects both process innovations and new product discoveries. Elasticities of the R&D production functions are estimated for thirteen industry groups and interpreted as measures of technological opportunity. There is no evidence of secular decline in technological opportunity over the sample period, but there is some evidence of diminishing returns to R&D intensity. Variations in technological opportunity over time are not correlated across industries. In contrast, the expected rates of knowledge growth at the industry level are highly correlated with the aggregate expected rate.  相似文献   

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