Trade-mediated biotechnology transfer and its effective absorption: an application to the U.S. forestry sector

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products.     

Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states

How does financial development affect economic growth: through its impact on accumulation of physical and human capital or by boosting total factor productivity (TFP) growth? We use a new data set on output, inputs, and total factor productivity for the US states to study this question. Unlike previous cross-country research that tries to disentangle the channels through which financial development impacts growth, we use a plausibly exogenous measure of financial development: the timing of banking deregulation across states during the period 1970–2000. At the same time our new data set allows us to go beyond what was previously done in the state banking deregulation literature and identify whether finance impacts states’ input accumulation or TFP growth. We find, in line with existing cross-country studies, that deregulation boosts growth by accelerating both TFP growth and the accumulation of physical capital without having any impact on human capital. In contrast to the cross-country studies, we also find that the effects of deregulation are largely independent of states’ initial level of development; both rich and poor states grow faster after deregulation. Additionally, since our data set breaks down aggregate output into three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and the remaining industries, we are able to show that deregulation accelerates the growth of productivity in manufacturing. This last finding answers an important critique of the banking deregulation studies which asserts that observed growth effects may be coming from the growth of financial industry itself and not from the beneficial effect of finance on other industries, such as manufacturing.     

Fertility choice and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the U.S.

This paper provides empirical evidence to support the proposition of Barro and Becker [1989] that fertility depends positively on the world's long-term real interest rates and negatively on real wages in an economy linked to an international capital market. The empirical evidence suggests that there is no long-run relationship among fertility choice, real wages, long-term real interest rates, and output growth in the U.S. over the period 1960–95. However, when estimating a VAR model and employing the variance decomposition analysis and the impulse response functions, the empirical results support the endogeneity of fertility choice and the proposition that real wages, long-term real interest rates, and output growth is related to changes in fertility choice. The empirical results have important policy implications and provide an explanation for the decline of fertility in Western countries mainly in the last three decades.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not those of the Bank of Greece.     

Comparative Study on Venture Capital among U.S.A., Japan and China

This essay, through comparing venture capital in China＇s modernization with U.S.A., Japan, summarizes the different characteristics of venture capital of the United States and Japan, and thinks that China＇s present modernization, as a flag of developing countries, has already entered middle period of industrialization, according to the experience of U.S.A., Japan and reality of China. The technological progress mode has already been changed from technology import to technological innovation stage at this time. In order to encourage innovations, we must develop venture capital in a more effective manner. The national conditions have determined the technology import of China, which must start with a high points, this is the most important condition of target to choose. The venture capital of China in system transitional period should use U.S.A.＇s experience for reference even more on the capital source to pay close attention to the capital sources of the government and bank. Once the government guides and starts the market, the folk capital will show the natural instinct of the capital automatically Risk investment is the embodiment capitalized personality spirit, in order to dispose such ambitious culture. We need the reform of the system as well as dispose risk investor＇s stratum at present.     

Related variety and industrial growth: evidence from U.S. commuting zones

This article uses industrial employment data at U.S. commuting zone level to test two widely debated propositions about related variety and industrial growth. Our empirical investigations confirm that related variety and specialization have positive interaction effects on industrial employment growth and that the impacts of related variety on industrial growth are much stronger in manufacturing sectors than in nonmanufacturing sectors.     

Trends affecting the next generation of U.S. agricultural biotechnology: Politics, policy, and plant-made pharmaceuticals

This paper analyzes the structure and history of regulatory policies in the United States, focusing on recent regulatory changes due to the promise and threat posed by plant-made pharmaceuticals (PMPs). PMPs are the latest advance in the genetic engineering of plants and promise to produce medicines inexpensively and abundantly by using a range of different plants as factories to express active medicinal ingredients; however, PMPs may pose a risk to the public's health if they enter the food supply. How the benefits and risks of PMPs are addressed by the respective government's regulation and how this will affect what, if any, products make it to the marketplace and their ultimate success are of great concern to many different parties, ranging from consumers and farmers to health and food production industries. As a result, this paper addresses the history of agricultural biotechnology regulatory policy since 1972, arguing that three distinct periods may be identified: (1) from 1972 to 1986 when the new biotechnology was focused on scientific self-regulation in the laboratory; (2) from 1987 to 2002, as the technology was being developed and widespread release of certain technologies became more common and was not perceived as an environmental threat, regulations became increasingly laxer; and finally, (3) we argue that we are entering a third phase with a series of controversies over regulatory infractions involving genetically engineered (GE) plants and the potential threats posed by PMPs.     

The rise of 3D printing and the role of user firms in the U.S.: evidence from patent data

3D printing has been heralded as one of the key technologies for the Fourth Industrial Revolution but empirical analysis is still sparse. This paper provides empirical evidence by proposing a robust approach to identifying 3D printing inventions. Findings indicate the inventive activity has been rapidly growing since 2011 and is mainly led by user firms. The development of 3D printing has taken place in a variety of industrial sectors, not merely a specific sector. This implies 3D printing can be considered as a general purpose technology. Interestingly, the diffusion patterns of 3D printing vary across technological categories. User firms are divided into incumbent and new firms to examine how patent activities vary by the type of firm and time. Incumbent firms exploit 3D printing earlier than new firms do but new firms tend to enter into 3D printing space more than incumbent firms after the technology becomes prevalent.     

Capital mobility and sustainability: Evidence from U.S. current account data

We propose an empirical framework that allows us to jointly test for the sustainability of the current account deficit and evaluate the capital mobility thesis by examining the time series properties of the current account. We argue that this approach is more useful than the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) cross-section regression because of its firm basis on the long run inter-temporal budget constraint and of its richer dynamics that allow for a more useful method to evaluate the capital mobility thesis. Based on a century and half of U.S. current account data, we find evidence of current account sustainability and major breaks in the current account dynamics such that adjustment in the current account switches off allowing the current account to accumulate at a non-stationary rate. We assess whether periods in which the current account accumulates in a non-stationary way correspond to historical periods believed to have witnessed high degree of capital mobility.First version received: June 2003/ Final version received: January 2004     

Inequality and the business cycle: evidence from U.S. survey data

ABSTRACT

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse response functions. We find that the effects of the macroeconomic shocks on inequality depend on the type of shock as well as on the measure of inequality considered. Contractionary monetary policy shocks increase expenditure and consumption inequality, whereas income and earnings inequality are less affected. Adverse aggregate supply and demand shocks increase income and earnings inequality, but reduce expenditure and consumption inequality. Our results suggest that different channels dominate in the transmission of the shocks. The earnings heterogeneity channel is consistent with the inequality dynamics after monetary policy shocks, but it appears to be less crucial when the economy is hit by either aggregate supply or aggregate demand shocks. Using variance decompositions, we find that although the macroeconomic shocks account for large shares of the variation in the macroeconomic variables, their contributions to the dynamics of the inequality measures are limited.     

Sticky information and inflation persistence: evidence from the U.S. data

This paper analyzes the relationship between sticky information and inflation persistence by implementing a novel approach to estimate the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC). The degree of sticky information is estimated using a GMM estimator that matches the covariance between inflation and the shocks that affect firms’ pricing decisions. Although the SIPC contains an infinite number of terms, the theoretical covariances derived from the model have finite dimensions, thus allowing the estimation of the structural parameters without any truncation of the original model. This work shows that sticky information is significantly different if the model is estimated by matching inflation persistence or inflation variance. Previous empirical literature found that the SIPC model does not provide an accurate representation of the US postwar inflation. This paper qualifies such a finding by demonstrating that the SIPC is able to match the inflation persistence only at the cost of mismatching the inflation variance.     

Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K.

ABSTRACT

Previous research that assessed the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance between the U.S. and U.K. assumed the effects are symmetric. In this paper, we add to the literature on the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon by considering the trade balance of 68 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects of the real dollar-pound rate in almost all industries. However, short-run asymmetric effects were translated into significant long-run asymmetric effects in 25 industries. Indeed, the asymmetric J-curve hypothesis was supported in 18 industries.     

Dividend taxation and household dividend portfolio decisions: evidence from the U.S. Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003

This study examines the dividend clientele hypothesis by focusing on the preferential tax treatment of qualified dividends provided by the 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) in the United States. Using the Public Use Tax File data, the author finds that the ratios of dividends to long-term capital gains before the 2003 tax act significantly declined with household tax rate differentials between dividends and long-term capital gains, but such a negative tax effect on the ratios disappears afterwards. This seemingly tax-inefficient composition of dividends and long-term capital gains after the tax act arises from households’ ability to reduce their tax burdens on stocks by exploiting the new preferential tax treatments on qualified dividends under JGTRRA. That is, households in the upper tax bracket hold significantly greater shares of qualified dividends relative to ordinary dividends after the tax act.     

The causes of government expenditure growth: A survey of the U.S. evidence

The growth of government budgets can be broken down into a-institutional and institutional components. The former component — the familiar substitution, income, and population/public goods-tax sharing effects — is estimated to contribute about two-fifths of the growth of U.S. government spending. The latter component — rent-seeking political redistributions, bureaucracy and perceptual/informational impedimentia — is important, too, but an exact imputation cannot be asserted given the state of the art in empirical public choice theory. The cross-effects on spending of the growth of regulation and tax preferences or tax expenditures, though interesting, is not pursued.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.     

The relationship between saving and finance: theory and evidence from E.U. countries

This paper investigates the relationship between saving and investment in an effort to shed light on the issue of mobility of capital and whether or not this is prevented by the presence of any barriers. The data of our analysis are annual and come from 14 E.U. countries during the 1960–1994 period. The econometric analysis shows that for the E.U. countries, saving and the provision of credit are two cointegrated variables, which means that for each E.U. country (Belgium was the only exception) the amount of money saved is closely related to the amount of money that is ultimately invested. This result lends support to the view that in E.U. countries the degree of capital mobility plays a minor role in investment, which is primarily influenced by the conditions affecting the domestic provision of savings. In addition, the econometric analysis shows that the causal linkage is in most countries from savings to investment.     

美国风力涡轮机技术监测与分析

运用专利计量学方法和VOSviewer信息可视化软件工具,对USPTO专利数据库中的风力涡轮机技术专利进行计量分析,从而实现对美国风力涡轮机领域的技术进行监测。结果显示:美国风力涡轮机技术专利授权量在2005年后快速增加,涡轮机技术发展前景较好;美国、丹麦和日本在该领域具有较强的技术优势,其中丹麦对风力涡轮机技术最为重视;美国通用电气公司、维斯塔斯风力系统公司和日本三菱公司是美国风电产业中的领导者;风力涡轮机自身结构等、风电控制系统与方法、垂直涡轮机是该领域的技术热点;IEEE的会议论文是美国风力涡轮机技术发展的重要科学基础,太阳能光伏发电与风力发电"融合"现象初现端倪,具有较大的发展潜力。     

The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry

This article uses an event study to evaluate the anticipated results of the Uruguay Round on U.S. industry. Economists commonly use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to predict the net economic efficiency effects of trade agreements. The event study method represents a complementary approach that relies on stock price movements to assess how investors predict that an event, in this case the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, will affect industry profitability. The empirical estimates indicate that U.S. industries with comparative advantage (disadvantage) experience positive (negative) stock price reactions, reflecting an increase (a decrease) in the industry trade and investment opportunities as well as an increased (decreased) return to existing tangible and intangible assets. For the market as a whole, the variation in stock prices does not differ significantly from zero, and the economic magnitude of industry gains and losses is small. These results are consistent with most CGE assessments and with the skeptical attitude that the real impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement remains uncertain.     

美日两国知识产权战略：比较与启示

美日两国均是成功实施知识产权战略的典范。美国是知识产权战略的创造国。日本依靠知识产权战略，成为能与美国抗衡的经济、科技强国。本文对两国政府知识产权战略的特点进行了比较分析，并针对中国国情提出一些具体建议。     

Employment protection and productivity: evidence from firm-level panel data in Japan

Recent developments in the literature on Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) have revealed that changing the stringency of employment protection can lead to extensive consequences outside the labour market, by affecting firms’ production decisions or workers’ commitment levels. This article provides the first empirical evaluation of the comprehensive effect of restrictions on firing employees in Japan, by exploiting the variations in court decisions. We find that judgements lenient to workers significantly reduce firms’ total-factor productivity growth rate. The effect on capital is mixed and inconclusive, although we obtain modest evidence that an increase in firing costs induces a negative scale effect on capital inputs.     

Exchange-rate variability and U.S.-French trade flows: evidence from industry data

Recent studies have greatly expanded the literature on the effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry-level bilateral trade flows. In this study, we examine the case of the United States and France, applying cointegration analysis to a set of 146 U.S. export and 115 U.S. import industries. We find that the majority of industries show little or no relationship between risk and trade volumes, but that small industries—particularly for exports—show more sensitivity than do large ones. A disproportionate share of industries respond positively to increased volatility, particularly among U.S. importers, suggesting the presence of “risk loving” behavior.