Fear and the Fama‐French Factors

Investors’ expectations of market volatility, captured by the VIX (the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index, also known as the “investor fear gauge”), affects the expected returns of US equities. Changes in the VIX drive variations in the expected returns of the factors included in the Fama and French three‐factor model augmented with a momentum factor. The market risk premium (R_m– R_f) and the value premium (HML) are especially sensitive to changes in the VIX. An increase in expected volatility is associated with flights to quality and increases in estimated required returns.     

Fear of feedback

Nobody likes performance reviews. Subordinates are terrified they'll hear nothing but criticism. Bosses think their direct reports will respond to even the mildest criticism with anger or tears. The result? Everyone keeps quiet. That's unfortunate, because most people need help figuring out how to improve their performance and advance their careers. This fear of feedback doesn't come into play just during annual reviews. At least half the executives with whom the authors have worked never ask for feedback. Many expect the worst: heated arguments, even threats of dismissal. So rather than seek feedback, people try to guess what their bosses are thinking. Fears and assumptions about feedback often manifest themselves in psychologically maladaptive behaviors such as procrastination, denial, brooding, jealousy, and self-sabotage. But there's hope, say the authors. Those who learn adaptive techniques can free themselves from destructive responses. They'll be able to deal with feedback better if they acknowledge negative emotions, reframe fear and criticism constructively, develop realistic goals, create support systems, and reward themselves for achievements along the way. Once you've begun to alter your maladaptive behaviors, you can begin seeking regular feedback from your boss. The authors take you through four steps for doing just that: self-assessment, external assessment, absorbing the feedback, and taking action toward change. Organizations profit when employees ask for feedback and deal well with criticism. Once people begin to know how they are doing relative to management's priorities, their work becomes better aligned with organizational goals. What's more, they begin to transform a feedback-averse environment into a more honest and open one, in turn improving performance throughout the organization.     

Uncertainty,Time‐Varying Fear,and Asset Prices

I construct an equilibrium model that captures salient properties of index option prices, equity returns, variance, and the risk‐free rate. A representative investor makes consumption and portfolio choice decisions that are robust to his uncertainty about the true economic model. He pays a large premium for index options because they hedge important model misspecification concerns, particularly concerning jump shocks to cash flow growth and volatility. A calibration shows that empirically consistent fundamentals and reasonable model uncertainty explain option prices and the variance premium. Time variation in uncertainty generates variance premium fluctuations, helping explain their power to predict stock returns.     

Value-at-risk vs. building block regulation in banking

Existing regulatory capital requirements are often criticized for only being loosely linked to the economic risk of the banks' assets. In view of the attempts of international regulators to introduce more risk sensitive capital requirements, we theoretically examine the effect of specific regulatory capital requirements on the risk-taking behavior of banks. More precisely, we develop a continuous time framework where the banks' choice of asset risk is endogenously determined. We compare regulation based on the Basel I building block approach to value-at-risk or ‘internal model’-based capital requirements with respect to risk taking behavior, deposit insurance liability, and shareholder value. The main findings are: (i) value-at-risk-based capital regulation creates a stronger incentive to reduce asset risk when banks are solvent, (ii) solvent banks that reduce their asset risk reduce the current value of the deposit insurance liability significantly, (iii) under value-at-risk regulation the risk reduction behavior of banks is less sensitive to changes in their investment opportunity set, and (iv) banks' equityholders can benefit from risk-based capital requirements.     

Fear and risk in the audit process

Relying on an ethnographic study conducted in the French branch of a big audit firm and using a psychodynamic perspective to interpret the collected data, we show that auditors’ sense of comfort (Pentland, 1993) arises only at the end of the audit process, and that the rest of the time, public accountants are inhabited primarily by fear. Fear plays a crucial but ambivalent role in auditing. On one hand, auditors and audit firms cultivate this feeling through informal and formal techniques to stimulate vigilance, encourage self-surpassment, mitigate the anesthetizing effect of habit and maintain reputation. On the other hand, audit teams’ members strive to alleviate their fear in order to form and convey their conclusions with a certain degree of comfort. In the field, driven by fear, they manage to finally become comfortable either by mobilizing their ‘practical intelligence’ (an intelligence of the body which helps them handle that which, in their mission, cannot be obtained through the strict execution of standardized procedures) or by adopting defensive strategies (such as distancing themselves from work-related problems, mechanically applying audit methodologies or relaxing their conception of a job well done). Fear and risk are closely related phenomena. Michael Power (2007a, p. 180) notes that ‘the significant driver of the managerialization of risk management is an institutional fear and anxiety’. Yet the experience of fear and the role that fear plays in risk management processes is most often overlooked in the literature. In this respect, our study contributes to ‘emotionalize’ and challenge the cognitive and technical orientation adopted by most academics and regulators in their understanding of audit risks and auditors’ scepticism. We also discuss a number of avenues for future research with a view to encouraging further examination of the role that emotions play in the audit process.     

从固定到浮动:从此不再担忧

关于国家如何过渡到浮动汇率的具体细节尽管大多数国家维持钉住汇率制,但越来越多的经济实体如巴西、智利、以色列和波兰等在过去的十年里已经采用了弹性汇率制。这种趋势可能会继续下去,因为跨国界联系的加深已经使得钉住汇率制的国家面临可变资本流动的风险,并且弹性汇率制能在起到更好的保护作用的同时,免遭外部冲击并增强货币政策     

Asking ‘Why’ in AI: Explainability of intelligent systems – perspectives and challenges

Recent rapid progress in machine learning (ML), particularly so‐called ‘deep learning’, has led to a resurgence in interest in explainability of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, reviving an area of research dating back to the 1970s. The aim of this article is to view current issues concerning ML‐based AI systems from the perspective of classical AI, showing that the fundamental problems are far from new, and arguing that elements of that earlier work offer routes to making progress towards explainable AI today.     

Stock Index‐linked Debt and Shareholder Value: Evidence from the Paris Bourse

French banks and non‐financial companies issue index‐linked debt whose value at maturity is indexed to the CAC 40 or to a basket of European indices. This paper examines stock announcement effects associated with these bonds on three dates: the date the issuer's General Assembly decides future capital needs, the publication in the journal of the COB (the stock market board), and the issue date. We find the issuance of index‐linked debt has significant positive announcement effects on the issue date, which we attribute to its market‐completion property. In order to examine further whether market completion is at play, we decompose the value of the bond at issue into its straight bond and option values. We determine that the bonds are overvalued again supporting market completion.