A Eurasian Economic Vision for the Twenty-first Century

Widespread corruption in mainland China adversely affects the overall economy in general and international business in particular. Prior to the establishment of the Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) in 1974, corruption was also rampant in Hong Kong. The ICAC effectively cleaned corruption in Hong Kong within a short period of time. Hong Kong's success in this area has prompted the Chinese government to learn from Hong Kong's experience. This article reviews the factors that contributed to Hong Kong's success in fighting corruption and discusses whether China can learn from the Hong Kong experience. From this, we can conclude that, first, Hong Kong's experience demonstrates that a corruption‐prone culture can be changed in a relatively short period of time; second, in order for China to learn from Hong Kong's experience, there must be substantial changes in China's political and economic institutions.     

HONG KONG'S INFLATION AND DEFLATION UNDER THE US DOLLAR PEG: THE BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT OR EXPORT PRICE SHOCKS?

Hong Kong's US dollar peg, adopted in 1983, has failed to deliver price stability. Hong Kong experienced high inflation before the Asian financial crisis and prolonged deflation after it. The annual rate of inflation (GDP-deflator based) was 7.4% in the first period (1985–97) and −2.0% in the second (1998–2007). There was no clear trend for the inflation rate to converge to the US level. The nominal anchor via a fixed exchange rate in Hong Kong had an upward and downward drift in the order of 4% from the US inflation rate, casting doubt on the anchor's efficacy. Despite Hong Kong's high output growth relative to that of the United States, the Balassa-Samuelson effect was not the main factor behind the pre-Asian crisis inflation. Price shocks in service exports played a major role in Hong Kong's general prices through the two periods.     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN HONG KONG: ESTABLISHMENT AND READJUSTMENT OF THE LIBERAL WELFARE MODEL

Hong Kong's social security system has followed a “liberal” welfare state regime. The system has undergone changes along with the high economic growth, changes in the labor market, and transformation of the political environment, but has retained the fundamental principle of a social security system led by the private sector. In recent years, Hong Kong has responded to the aging population and growing unemployment by introducing the Mandatory Provident Fund Scheme that requires individuals to join private‐sector pension schemes and by intensifying cooperation with nongovernmental organizations. This indicates the deep‐seated nature of the influence of the liberal regime in Hong Kong.     

Output and productivity comparisons of the Singapore and Hong Kong wholesale and retail trade sectors, 2001–2008

This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value‐added and labour productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's wholesale and retail sectors for the period 2001–08. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statement of the Singapore Government that its services sector, especially the retail sector, lagged behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's wholesale and retail sector performance in terms of labour productivity has been below Hong Kong's level, largely due to the poor performance of its retail sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity analysis of these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that have worked in Hong Kong may not work in Singapore because its population is more diverse, which poses a challenge to policymakers in raising its productivity level.     

Managing a scarce resource in a growing Asian economy: Water usage in Hong Kong

An econometric analysis of Hong Kong's monthly per capita water usage for the 25-year period of April 1985 through March 2010 reveals that per capita usage is insensitive to price but dependent upon past usage, per capita income, weather, and seasonal factors, with rising income countering what would otherwise be a downward trend. Given Hong Kong's current inflationary environment and large government budget surplus, these findings affirm the Hong Kong Water Supplies Department's adopted strategy of total water management towards sustainable use of water resources, in lieu of either periodic service interruption or price increases as policy instruments.     

关于《CEPA》与香港对外贸易发展的研究

本文围绕《CEPA》为主题,详细描述了《CEPA》的签署历程、特点,并且对《CEPA》签署后香港对外贸易的发展进行了详尽的分析。最后针对《CEPA》尚存在的问题,提出了将来进一步的补充《CEPA》内容的提议,以求使内地与香港的经济、贸易合作关系更加紧密。     

深港共建区域知识产权贸易中心的挑战和应对策略

为了发挥香港在粤港澳大湾区高质量发展中的知识产权贸易中心地位,中共中央、国务院印发《粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要》,特别提出支持香港成为区域知识产权贸易中心。目前,香港建设区域知识产权贸易中心面临着建设目标和路径不明晰、有效支撑不足、统计体系不完善、政策不明确等挑战,亟需将深港共建区域知识产权贸易中心明确为国家级战略,完善知识产权贸易统计体系,出台支持政策,营造良好生态,合力提升国际影响力。     

One country,two currencies: The adoption of the Hong Kong currency board, 1983

Currency boards have had an enduring attraction as a solution to exchange rate and monetary credibility for small open economies, despite few successful examples. In this context, the case of Hong Kong stands out for its longevity; it survived the handover to China, the Asian financial crises in 1997, and the global crises in 2007–8 and 2020. The 1983 currency crisis and the decision to link the exchange rate to the US$ is usually treated as an outcome of local political uncertainty due to the Sino-British negotiations which set the framework for how Hong Kong would fit with the rest of China after 1997. We present fresh archival evidence from Hong Kong and London to reveal the year-long debates over Hong Kong's monetary system after a drop in the exchange rate in September 1982 and to demonstrate how most of the protagonists in Hong Kong and London came only reluctantly to accept the idea of re-pegging the dollar once public expectations had been raised. We also show how the mixture of currency and banking instability affected the terms of the negotiations in 1982 and 1983 and set the framework for the one country, two currencies system that prevails today.     

The China money puzzle: will devaluation of the yuan help or hurt the Hong Kong dollar?

A Chinese yuan devaluation could affect the stability of the Hong Kong dollar. This paper studies two linkages. The first is that trade balance effect is studied through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The result shows that the net change in Hong Kong's foreign reserve after a yuan devaluation is, in fact, negligible. The second is that psychological effect is studied by a survey of financial market participants. In spite of the small trade balance effect, all respondents believe that a yuan devaluation would lead to a panic selling of Hong Kong assets. Therefore, a yuan devaluation is bad for the Hong Kong dollar primarily through market psychology.     

内地与香港更紧密经贸关系的法律规制与保障——CEPA环境下货物贸易的法律适用问题

CEPA协议的实施对内地与香港的经贸合作起了很大的推动作用,零关税规定使内地与香港之间逐步成为自由贸易区域。但在CEPA的实施过程中,仍然存在着一些问题,如CEPA条件下港产品零关税规定对广东市场造成的冲击;现行香港原产地规则未能与实际情况相适应;原产地证书申领期限长、核查程序复杂等。这些问题在CEPA实施中应予以完善。     

CEPA下内地与港澳区域经济合作的效应分析

2003年,内地与香港、澳门特区政府分别签署了内地与香港、澳门《关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(以下简称"CEPA")。CEPA的实施,将会对内地与港澳经济发展产生怎样的影响,一直是两岸三地高度关注的问题。本文从货物贸易、服务贸易、投资效应三方面展开,分析CEPA实施后对内地与港澳带来的经济效应。     

REARGUARD POLITICS: HONG KONG'S MIDDLE CLASS

This paper reports on the emergence of the middle class in contemporary Hong Kong First, it gives the historical background of the rise of the middle class in the 1970s. This historical background is important to our understanding of Hong Kong's middle class because it highlights its symbolic significance—the realization of the so‐called Hong Kong dream—in the context of the local society. It is also relevant to our understanding of the shaping of its political outlook. The second section explores why the middle class stayed away from politics when the future of Hong Kong and democratization were the main topics in the political agenda of the 1980s and 1990s. Finally, the paper rounds up its discussion by reporting on the new grievances of the middle class amid the economic downturn after the Asian Financial Crisis.     

浅析CEPA框架下内地同香港、澳门服务贸易中的法律适用问题

本文从简要介绍CEPA入手,分析了CEPA框架下的法律适用原则;大陆与香港、澳门法律规定上的差别;我国现有服务贸易法制存在的缺陷等问题后,提出了解决大陆与香港、澳门的法律适用问题的些许建议,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用。     

对CEPA的研究及其发展的若干建议

结合CEPA(Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement)出台的背景及其孕育过程,本文简要介绍了其主要内容,回顾了CEPA实施以来的进展情况。通过CEPA实施前后内地和香港经贸关系的对比,分析了CEPA的运行状态,肯定了CEPA产生的经济效应,并剖析了CEPA存在的制度、管理以及法律方面的一些问题。最后本文针对CEPA存在的相关问题,提出了若干的可行性较高的发展建议。     

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) and its impacts on the export efficiency of Hong Kong and Macao

The Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) is a bilateral preferential agreement signed among China, Hong Kong, and Macao which opens up the China market by providing zero tariff after accession. This paper sheds light to the impacts of the CEPA on merchandise trade with an in-depth analysis on export efficiency. Despite that merchandise trade has already been fully liberalized, the estimation results indicate that the efficiency of exports to China has been on the decline since 2000. This implies that the actual value of exports to China has departed from its full potential, and confirms our suspicions on the incapability of the CEPA to boost the exports of Hong Kong and Macao to China. There is also no evidence to support that the CEPA has successfully attracted foreign investment to Hong Kong and Macao for tariff free exports to China.     

以三维总部经济模式推进粤港合作

由于CEPA的签订,广东和香港之间的经济合作进入了一个新的阶段,然而随着经济全球化和信息技术的快速发展,国际竞争日趋激烈,同时广东本身的发展也逐步凸显出一些新的问题,如何在新的历史条件下,强化粤港间的经济合作,实现两地区的互惠共赢,是一个亟待解决的问题。本文通过总部经济理论的应用,提出三维模式,旨在为推进粤港经济合作提供一个新的思路。     

CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响与发展前景

自2004年1月1日《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(CEPA)正式实施以来,已经历了四个阶段的发展。CEPA的顺利实施,加速了香港和内地经济的融合,促进了两地产业结构的合理调整和经济的协调发展。本文回顾了CEPA实施以来的进展情况,分析了CEPA对香港和内地经济的影响,指出了实施过程中出现的一些问题,最后对CEPA的发展方向予以展望。本文认为,随着CEPA开放领域的不断扩大和深化,加强贸易投资便利化已经成为CEPA有效、顺利实施的关键环节。     

CEPA and Pan Pearl River Delta Economic Integration: A Comparative Business Development Perspective

Abstract

The introduction of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) at the beginning of 2004 and, more recently, CEPA-2 has provided a framework for increased business development in the Pearl River Delta area of China and the Special Administrative Regions of Macau and Hong Kong. In particular, the introduction of CEPA may lead to a significant increase in trade between Hong Kong and the neighbouring Guangdong Province.

This paper examines the economic context into which the CEPA provisions have been implemented from an international perspective and it contains an assessment of relevant business development issues, particularly the case of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in mainland China and Hong Kong. Wider issues for direct investment and the role of Hong Kong are also assessed. Experience with the implementation of free trade and associated market developments in other parts of the world is included but it is suggested that such models are of limited use in assessing economic development in the Pan Pearl River Delta Area. It seems that models derived from local practice will be more effective.     

两岸四地经济合作制度化与推进策略

ECFA和CEPA是两岸四地经济合作制度化的重要标志,对推动两岸四地经济发展与融合产生了重大的积极影响。然而,在世界经济前景日趋复杂的情势下,进一步推动两岸四地经济合作制度化既有机遇,也有挑战。未来应在CEPA及ECFA制度框架下,针对重大问题协调机制、交通运输一体化建设、产业分工以及人才流动机制等方面不断创新合作模式,丰富合作内涵,从而推动两岸四地经济一体化进程,创造合作多赢的崭新局面。