中国二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线——基于省域面板数据的实证研究

随着经济的快速增长,我国全球变暖现象日益凸显,主要成因是二氧化碳的过量排放。可见,探索二氧化碳与经济发展之间的关系已迫在眉睫。而衡量环境污染与经济发展二者关系的较好工具要属环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),所以本文建立在EKC理论的基础上并以我国总体、东、中、西部为对象来探索二者之间的关系,同时探讨了诸如工业结构、城镇化率、外商直接投资、技术进步及就业人员受教育程度等因素对二氧化碳排放的影响。     

Carbon emission efficiency in China: A spatial panel data analysis

Regional cooperation has become a new direction for China development. Indeed, carbon emission reduction is especially important to combat Climate change. In this paper, we use Direction Distance Function to estimate the overall carbon emission efficiency. We empirically estimate the spatial Moran'I and LISA cluster in China from 2005 to 2016. Our results show carbon emission efficiency presents the spatial pattern of gradually decreasing in “Eastern, Central, Western” and symmetrical distribution in “Southern, Central, Northern” of China. High efficiency spatial cluster areas mainly concentrate on the mid-east coastal provinces, which technical level and policies are better than those of the inland among the factors influencing carbo emission efficiency, energy structure, technology and urbanization have a significant impact. This paper will provide some scientific support to solve cooperation between province to combat carbon emission.     

基于VAR模型的中国产业发展与二氧化碳排放的实证分析

本文运用VAR模型对中国1987～2008年间产业发展与二氧化碳排放的关系进行实证分析。研究表明,三次产业与二氧化碳排放存在长期均衡关系,中国的节能减排对治理工业的二氧化碳排放起到积极作用;三次产业发展促进二氧化碳排放增加,其中服务业替代工业成为主要因素。     

Country characteristics and foreign direct investment in China: A panel data analysis

Country Characteristics and Foreign Direct Investment in China: A Panel Data Analysis. — In this paper an error-components model is developed to analyze the economic, political and cultural determinants of both pledged and realized FDI in China which has recently become the second largest host country for FDI. The panel data cover the period 1983–1994 (1984–1994) and 22 (17) home countries/regions in the case of pledged (realized) FDI. The results indicate that bilateral trade, cultural differences, and relative real changes in market size, wage rates, and exchange rates are important determinants of pledged FDI, and that bilateral trade, relative changes in wage rates and exchange rates affect realized FDI.     

企业减少二氧化碳排放的技术风险评估

在2009年的根本哈根会议上,中国政府承诺到2020年,单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放将比2005年下降40%到45%。为了逐步实现这个目标,中国政府从2012年已经开始在国内七省市试行强制性碳交易系统。企业可以选择减少二氧化碳排放,碳市场上购买碳配额,或者接受政府的惩罚性碳税。对于选择减少二氧化碳的企业而言,技术风险是其在降低排放时不可避免也是最难预测的,本文结合降低二氧化碳排放的技术特点和企业的经营特性,构建了一个评估概念模型,为企业在实施减排时候提供测量风险的参考。     

中国省际保险业发展影响因素分析——基于2006-2009年的面板数据实证分析

本文运用固定效应回归模型,对中国省域的保险业发展进行了计量分析。研究结果表明:中国31个省域的保险业发展差距显著,各省域保险业的发展主要受到地区经济发展水平、物价水平、人均收入状况、教育水平和就业状况等因素的影响,并且这些因素对保险业的发展都有着显著的作用。其中GDP,DPI,受教育水平对保险业的发展有显著的正向作用,物价水平及非国有企业职工数与国有企业职工人数比对保险业发展有负面作用。     

Digital finance and household carbon emissions in China

Sustained economic growth and environmental degradation are two of the key goals in the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). Digital finance provides an opportunity to simultaneously address the trade-off between the two goals. Based on data from CEADs, CNBS, CFPS, IDFPU, VIIRS and NPCGIS, this article examines the causal impact and transmission mechanisms of digital finance on consumption-based HCEs. To address the potential endogeneity, IV and IV-MA as well as HDFE models are applied in empirical estimates. Results show that digital finance has a positive impact on consumption-based HCEs. Mechanism analysis indicates that digital finance can increase HCEs through stimulating consumption scale, which is scale effect. Besides, digital finance can decrease HCEs through promoting greener consumption patterns, which is composition effect. On the whole, scale effect prevails composition effect. Our findings contribute to the literature on digital finance and green finance and have policy implications on common prosperity, not only for China, but also for other economies.     

中国省区投资驱动型经济增长及其空间效应

为应对世界金融危机的影响,我国已把投资作为进一步促进经济增长的重要手段。而这依赖于投资的经济增长效应和经济增长的溢出效应。本文重点利用我国1996~2007年间省区数据进行实证研究发现,我国提出区域协调发展以来省域经济增长表现为明显的投资驱动型,而且表现出了比较明显的空间溢出效应。这对我国正在实施的投资措施,具有重要的理论与实践指导意义。     

Inequality of opportunity in China: Evidence from pseudo panel data

We construct a pseudo panel sample from the China General Social Survey to study the inequality of opportunity in China. The pseudo panel enables us to control for cohort-specific heterogeneities when estimating the Mincer equation, and the results show that individual circumstances play a prominent role in determining income advantage. Counterfactual analysis further reveals the importance of cohort-level circumstances: individual circumstances account for less than 10% of the observed income inequality, whereas equalizing both the individual circumstances and the cohort fixed effects reduces income inequality by 30%. Among the individual circumstances we examine, gender and paternal characteristics contribute more to income inequality than does hukou of birth. Subsample analysis shows that China's western provinces exhibit the highest inequality of opportunity and that the inequality of opportunity among younger cohorts is smaller than that among older cohorts.     

Driving restrictions,traffic speeds and carbon emissions: Evidence from high-frequency data

We investigate the effect of driving restrictions on traffic speeds and calculate the implied reduction in carbon emissions using empirical evidence from the city of Xi'an in China. We obtain high-frequency road-section-level transportation data from the Didi Chuxing Technology Company and use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to identify the causal effect of driving restrictions on vehicle cruising speeds by exploiting a policy variation in 2018. We find that the driving restrictions led to an increase in vehicle cruising speeds of up to 15–20% during peak hours, which consequently dramatically reduced carbon emissions. Based on our back-of-the-envelope calculations, carbon emissions from private vehicles could be reduced by 2.2–5.8% thanks to increased fuel efficiency due to less traffic congestion.     

Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China

This paper aims to identify which provinces will be allocated more (less) of a carbon dioxide reduction burden within China's pledge to reduce its carbon intensity at the Copenhagen conference. Using an extended Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model incorporating an undesirable output, the CO₂ reduction potential and marginal abatement costs are estimated for 29 provinces over the period 1995–2007. The CO₂ Abatement Capacity Index (ACI) is constructed based on weighted equity and efficiency indexes. We find that there exists a large gap in potential reduction capability and marginal abatement cost among the eastern, middle and western regions. The eastern region has the least inefficient emission and the highest marginal abatement cost, while the western region has the largest potential reduction capability and the lowest marginal cost faced in reducing CO₂ emissions. The difference in potential CO₂ abatement among the provinces results from different industry structures, energy compositions and degrees of the openness of trade. The ACI ranking and the final allocation among provinces depend on the policy-makers' preferences regarding equity and efficiency.     

Human capital estimates in China: New panel data 1985–2010

We introduce new provincial level panel data on human capital in China from 1985 to 2010. Our estimation of human capital is based on the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach modified to fit the Chinese data, thereby allowing a more comprehensive measurement of human capital than traditional partial measurements, such as education. Our provincial data are adjusted for purchasing power parity via a living-cost index as well as for real values so that all values are comparable across the provinces and time. We discuss various characteristics of the data, including total human capital, per capita human capital, and labor force human capital, which in turn are disaggregated based on gender and urban or rural location. Our human capital estimates are compared with the provincial physical capital estimates and provincial GDP. As an illustration, we also use the data to estimate a production function and to decompose China's economic growth from physical capital, human capital, and TFP. Our results, compared with those that use traditional specifications, reassure us as to the reliability of our new China human capital data.     

省级地区能源-经济-环境协调发展分析与研究

本文通过对能源(Energy)-经济(Economy)-环境(Environment)系统指标评价体系进行优化筛选,增加对居民健康水平的考察指标。利用主成份分析法和协调系数对中国省级地区进行协调度测算并借助灰色系统相关理论对测算结果进行评价分析,发现2002-2011年间,山西、内蒙古、浙江等11个省级地区处于优质协调状态,辽宁、吉林、安徽等10个省级地区处于良好协调状态,北京、天津、重庆等6个省级地区处于不同程度的不协调状态之间,黑龙江、上海、河南则处于严重不协调状态。     

Inequality of opportunity and household education expenditures: Evidence from panel data in China

This paper offers one of the first pieces of empirical evidence on the impact of inequality of opportunity on household education investment by using the panel data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in three waves (2010, 2012 and 2014). Our result suggests that inequality of opportunity has a negative effect on household education expenditures. This result is robust to a series of robustness checks. Furthermore, for relatively disadvantaged households (household heads with less education, income, or rural hukou status), inequality of opportunity has a larger negative effect on their education expenditures. Policy suggestions to lower inequality of opportunity may include reducing labor market discrimination based on gender and hukou status, balancing education resources to create more equal educational opportunities, and offering children education subsidies in low-income families.     

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000–2011, we construct province‐level real effective exchange rate (REER) indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased world demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing‐and‐assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.     

Counting carbon: historic emissions from fossil fuels,long-run measures of sustainable development and carbon debt

This article examines how to account for the welfare effects of carbon dioxide emissions, using the historical experiences of Britain and the USA from the onset of the industrial revolution to the present. While a single country might isolate itself from the detrimental effects of global warming in the short run, in the long all countries are unable to free ride. Thus, we support the use of a single global price for carbon dioxide emissions. The calculated price should decrease as we move back in time to take into account that carbon dioxide is a stock pollutant, and that one unit added to the present large stock is likely to cause more damage than a unit emitted under the lower concentration levels in the past. We incorporate the annual costs of British and US carbon emissions into genuine savings, and calculate the accumulated costs of their carbon dioxide emissions. Enlarging the scope and calculating the cumulative cost of carbon dioxide from the four largest emitters gives new insights into the question of who is responsible for climate change.     

The relationship between globalization and insurance activities: A panel data analysis

This study applies a Bootstrap Panel Granger causality test to investigate whether there is causal relationship between globalization and insurance activity. We examine data from sigma reports of Swiss Reinsurance Company for 8 Eastern Asian countries over the period of 1979–2008. Empirically, results for one-way Granger causality show the influence of total insurance activity, life insurance activity, and non-life insurance activity on globalization only in Korea. However, there is strong causality from globalization to insurance activity for Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In our research, the results show that the causality between globalization and insurance activity varies across countries with different conditions. The findings of this study could provide important policy implications for the 8 Eastern Asian countries under study, namely India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.     

The drivers of energy intensity in China: A spatial panel data approach

We use a panel of 29 Chinese provinces for the period 2003–2011 to estimate the drivers of energy intensity by means of a spatial Durbin error model. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy intensity and income (energy intensity Kuznets curve). Ten provinces, notably the developed east coast provinces, have already passed the turning point of 29,673 RMB. The number of years for the other 19 provinces to reach the turning point ranges between 8.3 (Jilin) and 21.8 (Yunnan). The share of the secondary sector in the own province and in neighboring provinces causes an increase in energy intensity, the capital-labor ratio a decrease. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant negative spatial spillover impact on energy intensity. To improve the sustainability of its energy resources and its environmental conditions, China needs to continue reducing its energy intensity by further developing modern industrial systems to counterbalance the negative effects of its economic growth and energy consumption. An adequate policy handle is investment in research and development and stimulation of their introduction into production processes. For that purpose, market mechanisms can be readily applied, particularly energy prices that adequately reflect energy scarcity and external effects. FDI is also an effective tool to transfer advanced technology to China.     

Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis

We investigate the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 European Monetary Union (EMU) countries over the period 1970–2016. Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-section dependence show that the government debt series is stationary, indicating that the solvency condition would be satisfied for these countries. This confirms the effectiveness of the austerity measures implemented by these member states. Moreover, an unobserved common factor drives the comovement of government debt in the Eurozone.     

Maternal education and child health outcomes in South Africa: A panel data analysis

This study empirically assesses the relationship between mothers’ education and child health using continuous and binary proxies of child health outcomes. A panel, using four waves of the National Income Dynamic Study and a battery of estimation techniques, was employed. The results suggest that maternal education plays a large and significant role in explaining child health outcomes in South Africa. Our results also suggest that maternal education is relevant in respect to stunted growth (stunting). However, the effects of maternal education vary along races, implying levels of inequality. The effects are stronger in the black and coloured populations, possibly due to educational deficits. This suggests a need in improving the educational opportunities for these groups. We suggest that maternal education can significantly contribute to reducing the high degree of inequality in South Africa.