外国直接投资与中国经济增长的实证分析

本文简要介绍了外国直接投资与东道国经济增长的相关理论,并对外国直接投资(FDI)与中国经济增长之间数据关系进行了分析,进而利用协整检验技术,验证外国直接投资与中国经济增长之间是否具有长期的稳定关系。最后给出研究结论和启示。     

Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment

Four models explaining the flow of foreign direct investment in 80 less developed countries are econometrically estimated and compared by ex post forecasts. A politico-economic model which simultaneously includes economic and political determinants performs best. The higher the real per capita GNP and the lower the balance of payments deficit are, the more foreign direct investment is attracted. Among the political determinants the amount of bilateral aid coming from Western countries and multilateral aid has a stimulating effect, while help from communist countries has a negative effect. Political instability significantly reduces the inflow of foreign direct investment.     

Efficiency spillovers from foreign direct investment in the EU periphery: A comparative study of Greece,Ireland, and Spain

Despite a growing number of empirical studies on efficiency spillovers arising from the presence of multinational firms for a number of countries, general conclusions on this issue have been inhibited by differences in the data sets and estimation techniques used across studies. In this paper we conduct a comparative empirical study for Greece, Ireland and Spain by creating comparable data sets and estimating identical models. Our results show evidence of spillovers in Ireland and Spain only, although these positive spillovers seem to depend on whether firms have the absorptive capacity to capture technological spillovers and the criteria used to classify them as foreign affiliates. JEL no. F23, O30     

进口、外商直接投资与经济增长:基于中国数据的经验分析

改革开放20多年来,我国的进口与外商直接投资逐年增加,为我国经济的快速发展发挥了重要的作用,通过分析进口促进经济增长的内在机制之后,本文采用一个扩展的新古典生产函数,利用我国1982～2003年的年度时间序列数据,从实证角度对外商直接投资、尤其是进口对我国经济增长的促进作用进行了考察。研究结果表明,作为我国经济开放的两个重要内容——进口与外商直接投资,对我国的经济增长都有重要的推动作用。     

Alternative futures and foreign direct investment in China

Chinese history is littered with sharp policy swings, and the communist era, which has not yet fully drawn to a close, has witnessed a veritable embarrassment of riches. This has provided a fertile ground for researchers engaged in crystal ball gazing. Recently, momentum has accelerated on that front, a development apparently reflecting the increasingly fluid political‐economic conditions in the country. The scenarios generated can serve as an effective reference point in planning exercises, but there is scope for solidifying the conceptual architecture. The issue of rendering them highly relevant to foreign investors, presumably very important potential consumers of the product, should also be addressed.     

Vertical foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japanese and U.S. multinational enterprises

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries has increased since the 1990s, but there is mixed evidence of vertical FDI associated with factor-seeking motives. This paper estimates the vertical motive of offshore production by multinational enterprises (MNEs) by exploiting past schooling characteristics as instruments for skilled-labor abundance in a host country. Using panel data on Japanese and U.S. MNEs in the 1990s, I find that skilled-labor abundance has a significantly negative impact on sales of manufacturing foreign affiliate only for Japanese MNEs. The results suggest that vertical FDI activity was more prevalent in Japanese MNEs than U.S. MNEs. A plausible explanation is that Japanese MNEs might be more vertically integrated with their offshore production than U.S. MNEs. A difference in foreign outsourcing activities could generate the observed deviation between Japanese and U.S. MNEs.     

从外商直接投资看江苏制造业发展战略

一、国际产业转移与江苏制造业的比较优势国际产业转移大多是从发达国家向发展中国家转移,或是从技术领先国家向其他国家扩散。从20世纪70至80年代,国际产业转移大多是在发达国家之间进行。技术优势是导致国际产业转移的主要因素,一国拥有领先的技术是别国产业进入改国的主要原     

我国农业外商直接投资结构变动分析

自加入世贸以来,涉农跨国公司在我国农业领域内的投资迅速增加。本文以详实的数据实证分析了农业FDI投资结构,研究结果表明:农业FDI结构已发生很大变化,农业FDI以独资为主,空间结构呈现东多西少,投资来源地表现出多元化趋势,农业FDI投资产业结构表现为畜牧和渔业投资比重不断上升,种植业投资比重不断下降。     

Attracting foreign direct investment: Has China reached its potential?

China receives a huge inflow of foreign direct investment in absolute dollars. But China is huge, and large countries normally receive a large amount of foreign investment. Does China receive a fair share of the world's investment after controlling for its vast size and other factors? What is China's potential to attract more investment? This paper investigates these questions by using a newly available data set that covers over a hundred recipient countries and five major source countries. Relative to an “average” host country, China appears to receive too little foreign investment from the four major source countries (U.S., Germany, France, and U.K.), although it may receive an adequate share of outward Japanese investment.     

Agglomeration and location of foreign direct investment: The case of China

This paper investigates the effect of agglomeration on foreign direct investment (FDI) location in China. We use different measures of agglomeration, and test both within and across region agglomeration effect. The results suggest that urbanization, foreign-specific agglomeration and industry diversity have positive impact on FDI location. Urbanization, foreign-specific agglomeration and industry specialization, also significantly promote industrial FDI. The results also suggest there exist both within and across region agglomeration effects. Other factors including market size, wage, education, road density, government policy and trade cost also have significant impacts on FDI location.     

Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the case of China over the period 1952–2001. After considering the time series characteristics of the dataset, a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework is used as an appropriate specification and the long-run relationship among financial development, growth and other key growth factors is analyzed in a theoretically based high dimensional system by identification of co-integrating vectors through tests of over-identifying restrictions. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unidirectional causality from economic growth to financial development, conclusions departing distinctively from those in the previous studies.     

我国外商直接投资产业分布非均衡结构探析

一、我国外商直接投资产业分布的非均衡结构现状及原因1.外商直接投资在三次产业间分布非均衡①外商直接投资在产业间分布结构演进的理论阐释。从世界经济发展历程看出,国际投资部门重点从第一产业(种植业等)转向第二产业(制造业等),并继续向第三产业(劳务行业)转移,这一世界范     

A case study of the industrial organization theory of direct foreign investment

Conclusion This paper examines the industrial organization theory of DFI by means of a case study of the electronic calculator industry. The investigation is done by examining the relevant product, firm and industry characteristics. We began by focusing on and identifying the technological advances in electronic calculators and the firms responsible for those advances, to determine whether DFI coincided with technological superiority. The evidence presented shows that U.S. foreign investment in electronic calculators became significant during the third phase, when the U.S. firms gained technological leadership in electronic calculator production. The firms which enjoyed this technological leadership are the ones that initiated DFI. Foreign investment activities in electronic calculators were facilitated by a gradual trend toward a concentration of the industry structure in favor of the investors. In some cases, investors were large international firms to begin with. Thus, we can conclude that the industrial organization theory of DFI is supported by the experience of the electronic calculator industry. The fact that the investors themselves generally de-emphasized the cost consideration and emphasized the market potential as motivating factors in initiating DFI ventures provides further credence to this finding. Since the investors had something unique to offer and enjoyed sufficient market power to assume the risk of initiating foreign production to exploit this unique advantage in a potentially large market, they were least concerned about the cost of production. However, the cost factor played an important role behind the DFI in developing countries.     

Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China,Japan, and the United States

China has received enormous inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, including significant flows from Japan and the US. We examine these investment flows in detail to gain perspectives on their relative importance for the three countries involved. We also analyze the industrial composition of FDI flows over time. American FDI flows to China have been less concentrated in manufacturing than average for investors in China while Japan's FDI flows have been much more concentrated in manufacturing, particularly in transport, electrical and machinery industries in recent years. Using survey data from American and Japanese affiliates, we compare the employment patterns and sales destinations of American and Japanese affiliates in China. We find a much higher degree of export-orientation for Japanese affiliates than American affiliates, with the latter tending to make the vast majority of their sales in the Chinese market. Over time, however, we find a tendency towards convergence in the sales destinations of Japanese and American affiliates.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from Hungary and China

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transforming Economies: Empirical Evidence from Hungary and China. — This paper analyzes what factors best explain foreign capital inflows into Hungary and China during the period 1978–92. The size of the host-country markets is found to play a positive role, while the cost-of-capital variables and political instability are negatively correlated with investment inflows. It supports the hypothesis that low-cost labour and currency depreciation is an important factor in explaining how much foreign capital flows into a particular country. There is little evidence to support classical hypotheses concerning tariff barriers and import variables. The OECD growth rates show significant positive correlation with FDI in Hungary.     

1840-1936年外国在华直接投资挤出效应研究

自回归分布滞后模型检验的结果表明 ,1 84 0— 1 936年与 1 985— 1 999年外国 (商 )在华直接投资都具有挤出效应 ,前者的挤出程度远高于后者 ,且前者对官僚资本的挤出程度要远大于民族资本 ,而后者则相反。究其原因可知 ,资源寻求型和市场寻求型外国 (商 )在华直接投资是挤出效应普遍存在的外在原因 ,而外国 (商 )在华直接投资效应决定模式的转变则是挤出效应产生巨大差异的内在原因。     

Country characteristics and foreign direct investment in China: A panel data analysis

Country Characteristics and Foreign Direct Investment in China: A Panel Data Analysis. — In this paper an error-components model is developed to analyze the economic, political and cultural determinants of both pledged and realized FDI in China which has recently become the second largest host country for FDI. The panel data cover the period 1983–1994 (1984–1994) and 22 (17) home countries/regions in the case of pledged (realized) FDI. The results indicate that bilateral trade, cultural differences, and relative real changes in market size, wage rates, and exchange rates are important determinants of pledged FDI, and that bilateral trade, relative changes in wage rates and exchange rates affect realized FDI.